Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Believe it or not, the top of the third inning.

Washington had just dropped four on youngster AJ Smith-Shawver, taking a three-run lead, and Atlanta had a chance to respond. The bottom of the order started things off well, with Brewer Hicklen drawing a leadoff walk and Ha-Seong Kim singling to push Hicklen to third. Drake Baldwin promptly doubled, scoring Hicklen (4-2 Washington) and leaving two in scoring position for the top of the order.

Despite there being no outs, the Braves didn’t score another run in the frame.

Ronald Acuña Jr. got up 2-1, but fouled off a sweeper and a four-seamer in the zone before striking out on a foul tip for the first out of the inning. Matt Olson then softly lined a 1-2 heater to Jorbit Vivas for the second out before Michael Harris II grounded out on a 1-2 elevated four-seamer to end the inning.

Washington would turn right around and get that run back in the bottom half of the inning, extending the lead back to three runs and it wouldn’t get any smaller for the rest of the contest. September callup Jared Simpson relieved starter Jake Irvin after the fourth inning, holding the Braves scoreless, hitless, and without a walk for three innings before turning over an 8-2 game to the rest of Washington’s bullpen.

Simpson, combined with fellow September callup Yohandy Morales (who went 3-5 with a homer and two runs scored from the DH spot), were big reasons why Washington was able to take the opener vs Atlanta.

Today’s Player of the Game

The Braves Today Discord wants me to give it to Michael Harris II, who had a two-run homer in the 8th and played his usual brand of quality defense in centerfield, but I’m giving it to Ha-Seong Kim in a “process over results” decision.

Kim went three for three tonight, picking up three singles, and the way he got on base deserves mention. The first at-bat was a rocket back up the middle at 105.5 mph, coming on a 1-2 four-seamer. The second was Kim blasting a sweeper through the left side at 104 mph, albeit on the ground, and the third was a 109 mph line drive to left, coming on a 2-2 fastball.

Three at-bats, three hard-hit balls, three base hits. All three at-bats featured very little chase, either, with Kim showing a good batter’s eye and waiting for a drivable pitch and then doing it.

Kim turning around his season would be the most unlikely story of the year after he started off 5-73, but he’s currently 5-16 and has shown that once finally healthy, both his speed and base-stealing ability have accompanied his bat back to Atlanta.

Kim made an impressive putout in the 2nd inning, one that saw him shaded toward the 2nd base bag and leaving his feet to snag an Abimelec Ortiz grounder, making a throw from one knee to get the out.

While it’s incredibly premature to declare Kim “BACK back”, he deserves more run at shortstop, which will allow the Braves to continue using Mauricio Dubón for load management. Outside of when Drake Baldwin is at designated hitter to make room for Sean Murphy behind the plate, Dubón has played third base for Austin Riley, second base for Ozzie Albies (tonight), and both center (for Michael Harris) and left field (Mike Yastrzemski).

What You’ll Be Talking About

Atlanta’s offense, man.

The Braves finished this one with five runs on eight hits, and three of those runs came on homers - a solo shot by Ozzie Albies and a two-run blast from Michael Harris.

They also struck out ten times and drew exactly one walk.

And “poor offensive performances” and “not walking” have gone together this season.

August had Atlanta’s lowest walk rate of the season at 6.9%, and that’s a problem because this season, the higher the walk rate went, the higher the wRC+ was.

March/April - wRC+ 116, BB% 8.2
May - wRC+ 101, BB% 8.2
June - wRC+ 65, BB% 7.0
July - wRC+ 111, BB% 8.2
August - wRC+ 91, BB% 6.9

(H/T to Braves Today Discord member Shyne for identifying this trend and pointing it out)

Their whiff rates are remarkably consistent across that span, too, usually a few percentage points of each other, so I think it’s more approach than swing-and-miss fueling the lack of walks.

Either way, even though the offense rallied for three runs in the eighth, it still felt like a disappointing night for the offense. Two of those runs came on the Harris homer, while the third was entirely manufactured by Ronald Acuña Jr.: He reached on a force out, stole 2nd and 3rd on defensive indifference (no one was covering the third base bag), and came in after a wild pitch from Clayton Beeter.

What You’ll Be Talking About 2: Electric Boogaloo

AJ Smith-Shawver had some bad luck tonight.

He was officially charged with five runs in four innings, taking the loss and watching his ERA skyrocket to 7.13.

But despite the three walks, he didn’t pitch poorly enough to have six hits and five runs hung on his line.

AJ allowed only five hard-hit balls tonight, with an average exit velocity against of only 88.9 mph. He also picked up 16 whiffs (34%) and a 30% CSW, although his first- pitch strike rate was just barely over 50% (11/21).

Of those five hard-hit balls, four of them had negative launch angles, but three of them still got through for hits (one being a double). Additionally, Jorbit Vivas had an 80.6 moh double that clanged off Matt Olson’s glove and very well could have been charged as an error, which would have erased at least one run off AJ’s line (and had Olson completed the double play, which you can’t assume in a scoring-change situation), have ended what eventually became a four-run inning before anyone crossed the plate.

With slightly better batted-ball luck for Smith-Shawver, it’s easy to see this as a one- or two-run outing instead of the five-run disaster it was billed as being. It still wasn’t good enough, mind you, but there was improvement there; the first-pitch strike percentage broke 50%, and the whiffs ticked up on the splitter accordingly.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Then I’ve got bad news, because there was no Postcast tonight. My son’s youth baseball started this evening, so given the events of the week (mainly Bandit’s passing on Monday), I felt it important to be there instead. He’s playing for the Diamondbacks, which is his (and his sister’s) favorite team - that’s a long story involving me trying to hype them up for baseball around the time of the 2023 World Series using the “Snakes Alive” gimmick and a video of Blippi touring Chase Field, a decision I’m still paying for three years later.

If it helps, he went 4-for-4 with a double, a run scored, and two RBI. By the time you read this, I’ll be driving him to Hartsfield so he can join the Braves in Washington and be in Wednesday’s lineup.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are looking to salvage a split of the two-game set. Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.71) takes on Brad Lord (5-2, 3.75) at 1:05 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET

• Location: Nationals Park, Washington DC

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Partially sunny w/ thunderstorms, high of 89°

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Mauricio Dubón
DH Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
LF Brewer Hicklen
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s doing some load management for Ozzie, while the slumping Mike Yastrzemski gets a day off in favor of Brewer Hicklen, who has hit righties well this season.

Washington Nationals Lineup

SS CJ Abrams
RF Dylan Crews
3B Brady House
LF Daylen Lile
DH Yohandy Morales
1B Abimelec Ortiz
C Harry Ford
2B Jorbit Vivas
CF Jacob Young

Quick thoughts:

• Morales was a September call-up, making his MLB debut today.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 5.93)

Quick snapshot (Five 2026 starts in AAA):

• 1.66 ERA / 2.78 xERA / 2.47 FIP

• 28.7% K / 10.3% BB / 18.4% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 47% four-seamer, 36% splitter, 9% curveball, 5% slider, 2% sinker

• vs RHH: 38% four-seamer, 33% splitter, 14% sinker, 12% slider, 3% curveball

What to watch:

• AJSS’s defining statistic remains his 47.6% first-pitch-strike rate. He has walked eight hitters in 13⅔ innings, and his strikeout rate has fallen to 15.9%. Washington’s offense is far too dangerous to receive repeated 1-0 advantages. The splitter becomes much less useful when hitters can ignore it below the zone and wait for a get-me-over fastball.

• The splitter remains the reason to believe in October success. Smith-Shawver throws it 35% of the time, and it owns a 34.1% whiff rate, .265 xSLG and .270 xwOBA. It has produced eight of his ten strikeouts. The four-seamer averages 96.2 mph but has generated only a 10.6% whiff rate. His velocity is fully back; the fastball’s ability to miss bats is not.

• His last start was progress, but in workload more than dominance. AJSS reached 90 pitches and completed five innings against Los Angeles after being held to 69 and 75 pitches in his first two MLB appearances. He allowed three runs with three walks and three strikeouts, but the fastball generated four whiffs after producing almost none in his first two starts. He also reached 98.4 mph while striking out Shohei Ohtani.

• Keep the arsenal concentrated. Four-seamers and splitters account for 79.4% of his pitches and have allowed a combined .279 xwOBA. His sinker and slider have been punished, combining for seven hits in only eight official at-bats, although 31 total pitches make those results extremely small-sample. Until either pitch proves otherwise, their purpose should be changing eye levels—not becoming a substantial third weapon.

• The contact suppression is more encouraging than the ERA. Despite a 5.93 ERA, Smith-Shawver has allowed an 88.9-mph average exit velocity, 37.8% hard-hit rate and 6.7% barrel rate. His 4.94 xERA reflects that improvement. The issue is that eight walks and only ten strikeouts have left him almost no margin when balls do fall.

Who to watch:

• Only four of Washington’s hitters have faced Smith-Shawver, with mixed results:

  • Jacob Young (0-2), Jose Tena (1-3, walk), CJ Abrams (2-7, RBI, BB, 2 Ks), Keibert Ruiz (1-6, double, RBI, walk)

Opposing Starter: RHP Jake Irvin (2-8, 5.62 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.62 ERA / 5.34 xERA / 5.07 FIP

• 22.7 K% / 10.8 BB% / 11.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (29%, 93.1 mph)

• Curveball (24%, 77.7 mph)

• Sinker (19%, 92.0 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 89.2 mph)

• Sweeper (9%, 82.1 mph)

• Changeup (8%, 85.7 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Irvin:

• Attack everything except the curveball and changeup. Irvin’s curve has held hitters to a .107 average and .228 xwOBA with a 36.6% whiff rate. His changeup owns a .223 xwOBA. The other four pitches have been considerably more vulnerable:

  | Pitch       | Usage | xwOBA | xSLG | Whiff rate |
  | ----------- | ----: | ----: | ---: | ---------: |
  | Curveball   | 23.8% |  .228 | .237 |      36.6% |
  | Changeup    |  8.3% |  .223 | .259 |      30.0% |
  | Four-seamer | 28.6% |  .392 | .453 |      21.2% |
  | Sinker      | 19.0% |  .480 | .720 |      12.2% |
  | Cutter      | 11.1% |  .391 | .628 |      12.2% |
  | Sweeper     |  9.3% |  .344 | .422 |      25.8% |

• The sinker is the pitch Atlanta should punish. Hitters are batting .375 and slugging .768 against it, with six home runs. The cutter has also allowed a .541 slugging percentage. Irvin expanded to six pitches this year, but greater variety has not meant greater quality; four of the six have produced negative run value.

• There is real pulled-air-ball susceptibility. Irvin has allowed 62.1% of his batted balls in the air, compared with the 55.9% MLB rate. More importantly, 22.8% of all contact against him has been pulled in the air, well above the 16.8% league rate. His 11.2% barrel rate and 14 home runs in 81⅔ innings reinforce the power opportunity.

• Right-handed hitters have done greater damage. They own a .278/.351/.470 line and .821 OPS against Irvin, compared with .221/.333/.395 and .728 for lefties. Atlanta shouldn’t sit Olson or Harris, but Acuña, Riley, Dubón and the other righties are not entering the disadvantaged side of the matchup.

• His return from the shoulder strain has not produced a turnaround. Irvin has a 6.30 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and seven homers allowed in six starts since returning July 30. His latest line - one run in 4⅓ innings - conceals six walks, one hit batter and 94 pitches. He threw only 53 strikes. Atlanta should make him demonstrate that the command problem disappeared rather than helping him escape it.

• Atlanta has already seen both possible versions of Irvin. On May 23, he held the Braves hitless for five innings with seven strikeouts before leaving with shoulder tightness. In his July 30 return, he carried another no-hit bid through three, then surrendered homers to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski and finished with five earned runs in five innings. The second look is the opportunity: opponents have an .847 OPS the second time through his order, and seven of his 14 home runs have come during that trip.

• The Braves against Irvin:

  • The good: Ronald Acuña Jr. (4-10, HR), Matt Olson (only .190 avg in 21 ABs but two homers, so good, I guess?), Michael Harris II (.292 avg, 2 RBI in 24 ABs), Dominic Smith (4-12), Ha-Seong Kim (1-3)

  • The bad: Ozzie Albies (.118 in 17 ABs), Drake Baldwin (1-7), Mauricio Dubón (0-4), Sean Murphy (1-9)

  • Haven’t seen him: Brewer Hicklen, Lane Thomas

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Pretty static 4S/curveball based attack, with the expected ramp-up of fastball variants when behind and more breaking ball use when ahead. Curveball/changeup are the intended whiff pitches here, with the off-platoon sweeper and slider not being a major part of the attack.

vs RHH: Multi-fastball-based attack, one that uses both curveball and sweeper when ahead and alternates sinker or four-seam as primary fastball based on count. Cutter is mostly early in the at-bat and the changeup plays a very minimal role.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, and Dylan Dodd should all be good to go in leverage moments, while Victor Mederos can function as a medium-leverage or bridge arm and Brent Suter’s there as a longman.

Potential limitations:

• Dylan Lee (back-to-back) and Ray Kerr (34 pitches yesterday) are likely both down today.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have everything they need for game one.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• Both the closer Beeter and the setup man Ribalta are available, although someone may need to step up for top lefty Erik Tolman (46 pitches in the last three days, including 21 yesterday)

Potential Limitations:

• Matt Waldron’s down after throwing 41 yesterday, so no knuckleballs tonight. Luis Perales is likely also down for a day after breaking 34 pitches last night, as is lefty Will Dion (37 pitches).

Quick takeaway:

• Washington has the pieces they need, although someone may need to step up to handle Atlanta’s lefties here - watch for Tom Cosgrove, as he’s the only fresh lefty remaining.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored on the moneyline at -164 to Washington’s +138 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 9.5 runs. The likely hinge point is: Which offense makes the opposing starter throw his vulnerable fastballs? Washington wants to force AJSS into the strike zone before he can use the splitter as a chase pitch. Atlanta wants to spit on Irvin’s curveball and changeup, accumulate baserunners, and attack the sinker, cutter, or four-seamer in the air.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Let’s talk about the bottom of the 5th. The Giants had just manufactured a two-out run, tying the game at two, and Atlanta needed to respond.

Sean Murphy singled with one out, punching an inside fastball the other way. Austin Riley then laced one back up the middle, and it was good process - he took the down-and-away slider on 0-1 for a ball, then when Anthony Molina tried the breaking ball again but hung it, he fired it back up the middle.

Mike Yastrzemski tried to bring both men in with a homer, but just missed the changeup and flew out to deep centerfield, allowing Murphy to advance to third. Drake Baldwin got one of the two in, punching an elevated fastball just shy of Drew Gilbert in left, but Matt Olson wasn’t able to complete the drill, with a flyout.

And it was a FRUSTRATING flyout.

Olson got up 3-0 on Molina before taking a fastball for strike one, fouling off the exact same fastball in the exact same spot for a second strike, and then letting Molina get away with throwing it a third time in the same attack zone, flying out to left on less than ideal contact.

It’s the continuation of an underwhelming stretch for Olson, who is hitting .193/.270/.333 in his last 15 games.

Today’s Player of the Game

Let’s go with Michael Harris II. Money Mike had multiple hits but most notably hit a home run in this one, a solo shot in the 2nd inning that was Atlanta’s first lead of the game. It was a great job of capitalizing on a mistake, with Molina’s leadoff curveball catching way too much of the zone, and Harris did not miss it.

While Harris hasn’t had the breakout 30/30 season we originally thought he was capable of, with this season’s quad injury minimizing his contributions in the running game, he’s currently leading all qualified MLB centerfielders in batting average (.297), and despite his aversion to walks (just 19), he’s holding the 2nd-highest OPS for a centerfielder behind likely National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Atlanta’s pitching in the 6th inning, and the larger story here.

Bryce Elder immediately gave up the lead on a leadoff homer in the 6th, with the subsequent hitters singling and then advancing to 2nd and 3rd on a sacrifice bunt. So Atlanta pulled the plug on Elder’s start and went to lefty Dylan Lee.

It was a great opportunity for the struggling Lee to get right, if he took it.

He did not.

Lee gave up a leadoff double to pinch-hitter Turner Hill, coming off an elevated fastball and scoring two runs (charged to Elder, who was tagged for five), and after Rafael Devers flew out, Bryce Eldridge drove in Hill, the second hit off of Lee, and Atlanta called on Ray Kerr to clean up the mess.

Expanding on last night’s note, Lee now has a 11.57 ERA in his last seven appearances, allowing six runs on twelve hits in just 4.2 innings. Opponents have hit .480/.519/.680 off Lee in that stretch.

The Braves need to figure something out soon, so that they can get their ‘lefty killer’ back into prime form for October.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are heading to Washington tonight for a short, two-game series against the Nationals. AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 5.93) takes on Jake Irvin (2-8, 5.62) at 6:45 PM ET.

He appeared in two games for the Oakland Athletics during the 2006 American League Championship Series, both as a late-inning defensive replacement. He never came to the plate. He never appeared in a regular-season game. His entire major-league career existed in October.

Kiger was the first of only six players to make his MLB debut in the postseason. Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter became the sixth last year, joining a group that also includes three players from the unusual 2020 postseason and two pitchers: Shane McClanahan and Ryan Weathers.

Blake Burkhalter could become the seventh, but the Braves should be trying to ensure that he never gets the chance.

If Atlanta believes Burkhalter could help in October, September should be his audition rather than a waiting room. Before Tuesday’s automaticpostseason-eligibility deadline, the Braves must decide whether one of Triple-A’s hottest relievers deserves a 40-man roster spot and an opportunity to pitch his way into their postseason plans.

Let’s talk about it.

Not a starter anymore

Burkhalter, an All-American closer at nearby Auburn University, was announced by the Braves as a starter after they took him with the 76th pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. It’s not that surprising; most teams will at least attempt to see if a guy can work as a starting pitcher before deciding he’s best suited to work in relief.

The additional value provided by even a marginal starter is part of the reason. But sometimes, as Alex Anthopoulos told me last winter, it’s simply because they can develop faster in the rotation.

“In the minor leagues, you stick to these guys in the rotation from a development standpoint, right? Even though you ultimately might believe that they’re relievers, you want them to get as many reps as they can, as many innings as they can have, bullpens, side work, go deep into the games. You have a guy in the minors who’s a one-inning reliever; you might have a 10-pitch inning and not really get to work on things.”

And Burkhalter followed that exact path. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023, he made 32 starts across 2024 and 2025, but only two of those came after a July 2025 promotion to Triple-A. He was quickly moved to relief for the Stripers, where he’s thrived: since returning to Gwinnett after an early-season back issue this season, he’s put up a 1.48 ERA, holding opponents to a .214 batting average and .612 OPS.

And most of the damage against him is confined to one outing, when he allowed three runs on August 11 in two-thirds of an inning on the road against Norfolk. Since that appearance, he has a 0.84 ERA and 0.56 WHIP.

The stuff is exceptional

Burkhalter has improved his arsenal this season, with his overall Stuff+ rising three points to 104. Every pitch grades above 100 except his cutter, which received a 104 last season.

That cutter’s Stuff+ decline may be intentional. It has lost some horizontal movement, going from -3.1 inches to -2.3, while its zone rate has climbed 9.2 percentage points, from 47.8 percent to 57.0 percent. Its whiff rate has actually improved despite the reduced movement, rising from 23.9 percent to 27.1 percent.

The cutter is moving less and landing in the zone more frequently, yet hitters are missing it more. That is counterintuitive, but usage may help explain it. Against lefties, Burkhalter has increasingly used the pitch before two strikes and when behind in the count. Hitters with count leverage may be taking more aggressive swings, creating additional whiffs even though the pitch is reaching the zone more frequently.

The rest of the arsenal consists of a four-seamer as the primary fastball, coming in with 18 inches of induced vertical break at 94, as well as an 86-mph changeup and a mid-80s, mostly vertically breaking curveball. All four pitches have whiff rates of at least 25% this season in Triple-A.

As he’s gotten farther away from the injury, he’s pitching better than ever. “Burky” has held opponents to a .173 average in August and has allowed only one earned run in his last 10.2 innings. He’s been providing useful relief length down the stretch, as well, picking up at least six outs in four of his last six outings.

That hot streak has coincided with an increase in his stuff. Burkhalter’s raised his average fastball velocity from 94.4 to 95.9 in his last three outings, while still reaching back to get high-90s velo. He used a 98 mph four-seamer that came in with 19 inches of induced vertical break to put away former top prospect Noelvi Marte last week.

A multi-fastball guy who can go multiple innings? That’s right up Jeremy Hefner’s alley.

Can the Braves use him this October?

Yes, but they need to act fast.

MLB’s postseason eligibility rules specify how someone can be a postseason roster option, and it’s not “be in the organization.” Players must be on either the 60-day injured list or the 40-man roster to be eligible to be placed onto a postseason roster.

The rule also specifies a certain time for that to have been done, and it’s not the start of the postseason: It’s September 1st.

Yep, tomorrow.

Atlanta’s 40-man roster is currently full, so the Braves would have to create an opening, most likely by designating someone for assignment.

It’s important to point out that this isn’t the only way; it’s just the certain way for him to be postseason eligible. Any player that’s in the organization by August 31st can be eligible to be added to a postseason roster as an injury replacement upon petition to, and approval by, the Commissioner’s Office.

So tomorrow isn’t Atlanta’s last possible opportunity to make Blake Burkhalter postseason-eligible. It is the deadline to preserve the uncomplicated route - one that would allow the Braves to evaluate him in September against major-league hitters without making an October appearance dependent upon an injury-replacement petition.

Is there playing time for him?

That’s the harder part to figure out.

The major league bullpen is currently working one man short, as the Braves are running a six-man rotation to absorb the workload of this part of the schedule. They’re about to play the seventh game in a stretch of nine consecutive days tonight, and after Thursday’s off day, they will have 13 games in 13 days ahead of them.

And of the current bullpen, Atlanta’s seemingly divided everyone into one of three possible buckets. Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Lee are conventional leverage relievers, while Didier Fuentes and Dylan Dodd can provide multiple innings in leverage situations. Victor Mederos can provide leverage innings but primarily serves as a bridge arm, while Ray Kerr and Brent Suter are more traditional length arms, meaning five of the seven relievers can be - and regularly are - deployed as length options.

Barring an injured-list stint for one of those arms, it’s hard to see a scenario where one of those arms would get optioned to the minors for Burkhalter. (It’s important to note that Suter and Kerr, as well as the closer Iglesias, are all non-optionable).

And while there’s an additional pitching spot being created on Tuesday with the roster expansion from 26 to 28, there’s also the pending return of Reynaldo López to consider. ReyLo just completed his second rehab start in Gwinnett on Friday, pitching five innings with four runs allowed on eight hits. While the Stuff didn’t look great - only four whiffs on 35 swings and an average fastball velocity of 91.3 mph - the team could still attempt to bring him back as soon as this week. If they (probably correctly) wait for López to show better Stuff before he’s reinstated to the majors, there could be an opening for Burkhalter to get some run in the majors this week.

Complications

It’s not obvious that Burkhalter should receive the 40-man roster spot Atlanta would have to create.

For starters, he’s not the only candidate to get called up. Atlanta could select veteran reliever James Karinchak, who has postseason experience, or starter-turned-MLB-long-man JR Ritchie to the roster instead. Additionally, they could call up a spot starter this week so that they can optimize the rotation - right now, Chris Sale is lined up to start the Phillies series this Friday, but if they can find a way to push him later in the weekend, he can face them again in Atlanta the next weekend rather than facing the Rays at home in the series before.

There’s another, longer-term issue to discuss with a 40-man roster addition. Adding Burkhalter would also protect him from this winter’s Rule 5 Draft. Atlanta left him exposed last year and he went unselected, but his performance this season makes him considerably more likely to be taken this time. The complication is the threatened likelihood of an owner-imposed lockout after the current CBA expires on Dec. 1. Any player on a 40-man roster is prohibited from playing in the minors next season while the major leaguers are locked out by the owners, as they’re officially part of the MLBPA and subject to that CBA, not the minor league agreement.

A lockout would not necessarily mean regular-season games are missed; I’m not convinced the owners will blow up the season to get a salary cap, but that’s another newsletter. But if Burkhalter’s on the 40-man roster and the lockout persists, his remaining development could be delayed.

And let’s be clear, he’s not a finished product. There’s the acclimation to the caliber of major league hitters that all pitching prospects are required to master, and there are some outstanding questions there. Will the cutter induce weak contact against major leaguers who chase less than their AAA counterparts? Can his multi-inning effectiveness survive the jump in competition level?

There are also pre-existing questions to answer: Burkhalter’s struggled against left-handers in Gwinnett to the tune of a .296/.367/.465 line, with their .832 OPS being more than double the .352 he allowed to righties this season.

Diving into Statcast, the issue in this small sample appears to be damage allowed against the cutter, which is giving up a .357 xwOBA and 50% hard-hit rate. And that would track, as the cutter to a lefty is inherently a riskier pitch because the miss inside is likely an HBP, not a ball.

And while the rest of his stuff is good, nothing in the arsenal is overpoweringly elite to make up for the lack of effectiveness of one of his main packages. Can the changeup usage increase versus lefties to protect the four-seam fastball? Will the curveball still maintain a good-enough chase and whiff rate in those situations?

Does he get a shot?

Atlanta drafted an elite college closer, spent several years developing him as a starter and may now benefit from returning him to the role that made him a compensation-round selection. This version brings a larger repertoire and more experience than he possessed at Auburn.

Blake Burkhalter has ultimately done enough to earn Atlanta’s most important kind of September opportunity: not a ceremonial prospect debut, but a genuine audition for innings that could matter. The results are excellent, the fastball is trending upward, the four-pitch repertoire gives him more flexibility than a typical rookie reliever and the Braves can create a 40-man spot without too much trouble. Adding him by noon Tuesday would not guarantee an October role, but it would allow his pitching, rather than roster machinations, to determine whether he deserves one.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The 10th inning, in its entirety.

The Rockies started off with speedy outfielder Mickey Moniak at second base, but Victor Mederos did not care.

He started the inning off with a first-pitch pop-out of youngster Cole Carrig, who was inserted into the game as a pinch-hitter in the 7th despite this being the first of a two-game suspension levied by manager Warren Schaeffer for Carrig’s obscene gesture towards Braves fans in Saturday’s game. Mederos then struck out backup catcher Brett Sullivan before pinch-hitter Zac Veen flew out to left. Nine pitches, three outs, and the runner never even advanced to third.

In the bottom half of the inning, Ronald Acuña Jr. served a first-pitch sinker into left, advancing pinch runner Brewer Hicklen (in for Drake Baldwin) to third. Matt Olson then battled Ryan Feltner for five pitches, eventually lacing the fourth changeup he saw down the right-field line and past a diving TJ Rumfield for the winning run.

And really, despite the Rockies bullpen being almost completely burnt out after the first two games of the series, it still felt odd to me to ask Feltner to face Matt Olson for a third time. I know he’s a starter - he was pitching today because an overnight illness forced them to scratch him from the Saturday start - but as a manager, I’d rather have had one of the high-velo relievers facing the top of the order in that scenario rather than accepting a TTO penalty on Feltner (.965 OPS the third time through, entering today).

Today’s Player of the Game

With a surprising 68% of the vote, Tyler Mahle - I guess I thought Olson would get a bit more than his actual 25%, owing to the walkoff.

Mahle continued his post-deadline dominance today, pitching 6.2 innings of one-run ball with no walks and five hits, striking out nine. It took him only 89 pitches (60 strikes) to do it, being removed only because the tying run got on base in the 6th.

But as good as the results were, the process to get there was equally impressive. Continuing his two-pitch focus, Mahle went 93% four-seam/splitter (83 of 89 pitches) and still got 17 whiffs on 49 swings (35%), including an impressive 11 whiffs/44% rate on the four-seamer. The pattern was obvious - four-seamer up, splitter down, with the pairing tunneling perfectly until halfway to the plate. He mixed in five cutters (all the first time through the order) and exactly one slider, but otherwise stuck to the duo and dominated. The average exit velocity allowed by Mahle was just 86.1 mph, and of his 15 batted balls in play, just six were hard-hit; the only extra-base hit he allowed was a solo shot to Jake McCarthy in the 4th.

This is Mahle’s fifth Braves start and fourth time winning the award, and his ERA with Atlanta is now down to 1.48. He continues to be the likeliest candidate to start game two of a postseason series behind ace Chris Sale, and his Braves tenure indicates that he might work out perfectly fine in that role.

What You’ll Be Talking About

The perils of Dylan Lee.

Atlanta’s best lefty reliever has been anything but his best lately, and those issues popped up yet again. Lee allowed two hits and a run to score in the 8th inning today, with a leadoff single coming on a thigh-high slider and the RBI coming off another slider three batters later. Neither one was a terrible pitch, but both caught more of the plate than intended, and that’s the trend that’s hurt Lee recently.

In his last six outings, Lee has a 10.38 ERA, coming with a 2.77 WHIP and a dreadful 4.55 batting average against.

But with Robert Suarez still being out from his forearm inflammation, going on the third month now, it’s hard to remove Lee from the bullpen for the fifteen days required under an injured list stint for “fatigue” or “shoulder soreness” or any other very real but minor reason that would escape MLB’s policing of the phantom IL.

Lee is the team’s best chance at getting some of the game’s biggest lefties out in October, though, and so if they need to lean on someone else for the next two weeks while he gets a chance to rest (if fatigue is really the issue), it needs to happen soon.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves have a single-game makeup against the San Francisco Giants on tap, with Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.95) opposite Anthony Molina (1-0, 2.89) getting the ball at 6:05 PM ET. (Molina was the return to the Giants in the Tyler Mahle trade, so there’s a small bit of revenge game potential there.)

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWX on X.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
C Sean Murphy
3B Austin Riley
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta rotates Murphy and Kim back into the lineup, batting 7th and 9th, respectively.

Colorado Rockies Lineup

CF Jake McCarthy
2B Connor Norby
C Hunter Goodman
1B TJ Rumfield
3B Willi Castro
LF Mickey Moniak
RF Troy Johnston
C Brent Sullivan
SS Ryan Ritter

Quick thoughts:

• Colorado’s giving rookie Cole Carrig and struggling shortstop Ezequiel Tovar the day off, but that outfield defense has the potential to be bad today.

  • Jake McCarthy has a success rate of only 89% in his limited centerfield reps, while Troy Johnston has 20th percentile speed, poor arm strength, and -2 OAA in right field in just 343 innings. Mickey Moniak’s -12 OAA last year in his 887 outfield innings prompted them to more than double his DH starts this year.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.41, but 2-1, 1.52 with ATL)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.41 ERA / 4.30 xERA / 4.09 FIP

• 22.5% K / 8.5% BB / 14.1% K-BB%

Pitch mix (since trade to Atlanta):

• vs LHH: 48% four-seamer, 38% splitter, 14% cutter, no sliders thrown

• vs RHH: 48% four-seamer, 40% splitter, 11% cutter, 1% slider

What to watch:

• With a simplified pitch mix, the results since the trade remain excellent. Mahle has a 1.52 ERA with 23 strikeouts and five walks over 23⅔ innings for Atlanta. He has completed at least five innings in all four starts while allowing two earned runs or fewer each time.

• Mahle’s simplified approach barely changes with the hitter’s handedness. Since joining Atlanta, he has thrown four-seamers or splitters on 86.2% of his pitches to lefties and 87.7% to righties. Four-seam usage is essentially identical, while righties receive slightly more splitters and lefties slightly more cutters. His reverse platoon split therefore isn’t the product of an obvious repertoire imbalance; the greater concern is how effectively right-handed hitters have handled the same basic plan.

  • Colorado’s right-handed hitters represent the real threat. Righties have hit .294/.370/.448 with an .818 OPS against Mahle, compared with a .666 OPS by lefties. Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Ezequiel Tovar and Connor Norby are the portion of the lineup most capable of disrupting his recent run.

• Watch the splitter’s swing-and-miss rather than its raw usage. Mahle threw it 36 times against Milwaukee but produced only two whiffs. He still limited the Brewers to one run, but that continued a modest decline from the bat-missing splitter he showed in his first two Braves appearances. Colorado could put considerably more pressure on him if they can recognize the pitch beneath the zone.

• The first inning remains the season-long warning sign. Mahle has a 5.73 first-inning ERA, four homers allowed and a 1.68 WHIP. That vulnerability hasn’t clearly followed him to Atlanta, but it still makes his initial fastball command worth watching, especially against Colorado’s right-handed power.

• There isn’t a major times-through-the-order cliff. Opponents have a .748 OPS on their first look, .706 on the second and .766 on the third. The Braves shouldn’t need to manufacture an unusually early hook if his command and splitter remain intact.

Who to watch:

• Most of Colorado’s roster, all but youngsters Cole Carrigg, Ryan Ritter and Zac Veen, have faced Mahle in the past - he threw seven innings of one-run ball against this roster back in July, striking out four in a 4-2 Giants win.

  • Mahle won: Ezequiel Tovar (0-4), Jordan Beck (0-2), Troy Johnston (1-5, RBI), Mickey Moniak (2-9)

  • Mahle has gotten got: Hunter Goodman (5-9, 2 doubles), TJ Rumfeld (2-4, walk), Brett Sullivan (2-5, 2 doubles), Willi Castro (2-5), Connor Norby (2-2)

Opposing Starter: RHP Mason Adams (0-0, 2.25 ERA)

Quick snapshot (minors):

• 3.48 ERA / 4.78 xERA / 4.01 FIP

• 24.3 K% / 8.8 BB% / 15.5% K-BB%

The arsenal (AAA):

• Four-seamer (29%, 93.5 mph)

• Sweeper (23%, 85.8 mph)

• Sinker (22%, 92.3 mph)

• Curveball (13%, 82.7 mph)

• Changeup (8%, 88.6 mph)

• Cutter (6%, 89.8 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Adams:

• Expect two fastballs and two distinct breaking-ball shapes. In his MLB debut, Adams threw four-seamers and sinkers on 53.3% of his pitches, then sweepers and curveballs on another 38.7%. He used only four changeups and two cutters. The four-seamer averaged 93 mph, the sinker 91.7, the sweeper approximately 85 and the curveball 82.

• Atlanta shouldn’t give him automatic first-pitch strikes. Adams began 77.8% of the plate appearances in his debut with a strike. That is an enormous rate, even in an 18-batter sample, and reflects the command-oriented scouting profile he carried through the minors. Braves hitters should be prepared to attack a low-90s fastball in the zone before he begins working backward with the breaking balls.

• His breaking balls are more interesting than their debut whiff totals. The curveball has generally been identified as Adams’s best pitch, with downer action and an ability to land it for strikes. Nevertheless, his 29 sweepers and curves produced only one whiff against Washington. That doesn’t invalidate the scouting report, but Atlanta shouldn’t treat either pitch as an established major-league out pitch yet.

• Load up on left-handed hitters and make him demonstrate a third answer. All three walks and the only homer Adams allowed in his debut came against lefties, while four of his five strikeouts came against righties. That is nowhere near enough to establish a platoon split, but the underlying question is legitimate: Does Adams trust a changeup he threw only four times enough to handle Olson, Baldwin, Harris and Atlanta’s other left-handed bats?

• Five debut strikeouts slightly overstate how overpowering he was. Adams generated a 21.2% whiff rate, below the MLB average, and Washington made contact on 95% of its swings at pitches in the zone. His skill is changing shapes and speeds while throwing strikes, not simply overwhelming hitters.

• The workload may be Atlanta’s greatest advantage. Adams missed 2025 following Tommy John surgery and hasn’t exceeded 80 pitches in a start this season. He needed 75 pitches to complete four innings in his debut. Colorado then used six pitchers Saturday, making another short start particularly inconvenient. Deep plate appearances can matter even if Atlanta doesn’t score immediately.

• The broader resume is “command over stuff”. Before surgery, Adams posted a 2.70 ERA with 101 strikeouts against only 19 walks in Double-A. His ceiling is generally viewed as that of a back-end starter, but the six-pitch foundation and ability to work backward give him more ways to survive than the ordinary emergency call-up.

• The Braves against Adams: As this is his second career start, no Braves have faced him in the majors. I can’t find any overlap with the current roster from his time in the minor league system for the White Sox, either.

  • The good: N/A

  • The bad: N/A

  • Haven’t seen him: N/A

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

Important to acknowledge that this will be for one start of 75 total pitches, so he could look radically different today if Colorado implements a different gameplan)

vs LHH: Curveball functioned more as an early strike-stealer than a whiff pitch, while an opposite-handed sweeper (!) was the primary swing-and-miss weapon. Changeup was underused, but primarily showed up when ahead in the count.

vs RHH: Sinker/sweeper dominated these at-bats early, with Adams pivoting to the four-seamer when ahead and pairing it with both breaking balls and the changeup with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Dylan Lee’s had three days off, while most of the leverage contingent had yesterday off.

Potential limitations:

• Given the kid gloves they’ve treated Didier Fuentes with, 21 pitches is likely enough for him to be down today, unless all hell breaks loose. Does Victor Mederos maybe get one more day, given his higher usage earlier in the week?

Quick takeaway:

• Ray Kerr’s available for length, while the leverage arms are there if this one ends up being another close contest. (Let’s hope not.)

Opponent Bullpen Status

Yikes.

Likely Available:

• Uh, closer Jordan Romano only threw three pitches yesterday and can likely come back, as can Juan Mejia (back-to-back on Thursday and Friday) and Mark Manfredi (24 on Friday)

Potential Limitations:

• Zack Agnos (42 pitches yesterday) and Jaden Hill (37) are almost certainly down, while Jimmy Herget (26) and Nick Frasso (27) might be good for an inning today, but they do both have three-day pitch counts of 45.

Quick takeaway:

• This is Atlanta’s biggest opportunity here, and the sooner they can get into Colorado’s pen today, the more this will resemble an SEC non-conference Sunday blowout in college baseball.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored on the moneyline at -225 to Colorado’s +205 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs, an even bigger moneyline margin than the first two games of the series. The likely hinge point is: Can Atlanta turn Adams’s limited workload into a bullpen game? Mahle has completed at least five innings in every Braves start, while Adams has never surpassed 80 pitches this year and Colorado used six pitchers Saturday. If Atlanta prevents the rookie from stealing early-count strikes, four competent innings may still leave the Rockies badly exposed. If Adams cruises through those innings and Colorado’s right-handed hitters exploit Mahle’s reverse platoon split, the presumed pitching advantage becomes considerably smaller.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The bottom of the eighth inning.

Trailing 1-0 and so far unable to get anything going offensively against Rockies pitching, Atlanta briefly looked like the eighth inning was going to be more of the same. Drake Baldwin opened the frame with a first-pitch flyout, while Ronald Acuña Jr got into the sixth pitch of the at-bat before he hit a rocket to center for the second out.

But then the Braves locked in.

Matt Olson singled on a line drive to right. Mauricio Dubón then lined a single to center, doing it on a sinker up and in - seriously, he leaned back mid-swing to make space for his hands to get around the ball.

Michael Harris II then doubled them both in after his hard liner in the left-center gap was just off Carrig’s glove and rolled almost all the way to the wall. Dubón probably shouldn’t have scored from first here, as the third base coach was holding him, but he sensed/saw/gambled on the throw coming in to second base and kept running.

The two RBIs gave Atlanta the 2-1 lead and were Harris’ 76th and 77th, putting him less than ten away from his career high of 86 with a full month left to play.

Didier Fuentes then came in for his third career save, giving up a leadoff walk to Willi Castro and a one-out single but otherwise handling the Colorado lineup to seal the win.

Today’s Player of the Game

Mauricio Dubón.

Reinstated to the cleanup spot, Dubón had just the one hit and one run scored in the entire contest, but that’s not why he’s here.

Shortstop Mauricio Dubón is the Player of the Game, because his slick glove work was the difference today. With a contact-management starter on the mound in Martín Pérez, Dubón was knocking down baseballs and turning double plays, keeping those batted balls from becoming baserunners for most of the afternoon.

It started in the first, when Dubón laid out on the other side of second base to take away a single up the middle from TJ Rumfield. He began an inning-ending double play on a 106 mph screamer from Willi Castro in the 4th, and then erased a leadoff bunt single by starting his own double play off of an Ezequiel Tovar slow roller up the middle.

The two-time Gold Glove utilityman has been worth +5 Outs Above Average at shortstop this season, and his steady glove anywhere on the diamond gives Atlanta the opportunity to either give guys some loan management-style days off or insert someone at a position for a few days to see if their bat can get going.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Today’s person who got a shot to get going was Dominic Smith, who was the designated hitter and batted ninth.

It didn’t go well - Smith flew out in his only plate appearance before being pinch-hit for by Lane Thomas, who was called on to face lefty Brennan Bernardino in the 5th.

And for all the thoughts of “well, the Rockies are a team you can experiment with your lineup against, as you’re favored to win”, it took a late rally for Atlanta to not have their winning streak snapped. The idea of the Braves playing “down” to their opponents has been discussed for a few seasons now, and it’s because it keeps happening.

Just this season, they’re 1-4 against the San Francisco Giants (55-81 entering Saturday), 6-7 against the New York Mets (60-75), 1-2 against Seattle (64-71), and 2-4 versus St. Louis (68-69). In previous seasons, they’ve dropped series to the 71-91 Pirates (2025), 41-121 White Sox (2024), and the 50-112 Athletics (2023).

Let’s be clear here: Atlanta’s currently tied for the most win against teams over 500 with Milwaukee, with both teams having 37 after Saturday’s action. But it’s frustrating to also be in nothing but close games during the rare “easy” stretch of the schedule before the Braves play 16 straight against certain or likely playoff teams in Philly (seven games), the Cubs (three), the Rays (three), and the Astros (three).

My kingdom for a blowout, is what I’m saying.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves will go for a sweep on Sunday afternoon, with Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.41 on the season but 2-1, 1.52 with ATL) opposite youngster Mason Adams (0-0, 2.25) at 1:35 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWX on X.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr
1B Matt Olson
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith

Quick thoughts:

• Dominic Smith re-enters the lineup for the first time in a week, batting ninth. Which, frankly, blows my mind - if he’s hitting so poorly right now that he needs to be in the #9 hole, then why is he your designated hitter? It’s not like he’s providing any defensive value. I’d rather see Lane Thomas or even Sean Murphy in the spot versus Smith, but maybe this is a “give him two days of playing time before we DFA him to get the 40-man spot back by the postseason eligibility deadline of Tuesday” scenario.

Colorado Rockies Lineup

DH Jake McCarthy
CF Cole Carrigg
C Hunter Goodman
1B TJ Rumfield
2B Connor Norby
3B Willi Castro
RF Mickey Moniak
LF Jordan Beck
SS Ezequiel Tovar

Quick thoughts:

• Zac Veen’s getting the day off, and it’s a continuation of a trend where they’ve protected him against left-handed pitching.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (8-8, 3.12)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.12 ERA / 4.41 xERA / 4.26 FIP

• 17.9% K / 10.1% BB / 7.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 53% sinker, 26% changeup, 13% cutter, 6% curveball, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 32% changeup, 27% sinker, 26% cutter, 9% curveball, 6% four-seamer

What to watch:

• Pérez’s results remain better than his underlying performance. A 3.12 ERA is excellent, but the 4.41 xERA and 4.26 FIP tell a more ordinary story. His strikeout rate is below average, his walk rate is elevated and his .244 BABIP is doing meaningful work. Pérez has legitimately limited damaging contact, but the margin between “effective veteran starter” and “traffic jam” remains fairly thin.

• August has been excellent, but built on contact management rather than dominance. Pérez has a 1.80 ERA in five August starts, allowing only 18 hits and one homer in 25 innings. He has also struck out only 16 while walking 11. The run prevention is real; the under-the-hood profile is of a veteran who is still successfully walking a fine line to get his results

• His last two starts have contained considerably more traffic. Minnesota and Milwaukee combined for 13 hits, five walks and only five strikeouts in nine innings against him. Pérez allowed four earned runs in the first inning at Minnesota, then needed 97 pitches to complete four innings in Milwaukee after his own error prolonged a 37-pitch third. Only one of Milwaukee’s four runs was earned, but inefficient innings can shorten his outing regardless of how they are scored.

• The changeup remains the pitch that makes everything work. Hitters have batted .153 and slugged .287 against it, with a 34.6% whiff rate and .280 xwOBA. His sinker has produced good actual results, but its .348 xwOBA and 45.2% hard-hit rate are less convincing. The cutter has allowed a .483 slugging percentage, and the seldom-used four-seamer has been hit even harder. Pérez needs the changeup to prevent Colorado from sitting on his fastball family.

• Pérez’s platoon split contains two different vulnerabilities. Righties have hit only .209/.302/.342, but they have drawn 41 of his 48 walks. Lefties have walked only seven times but slugged .409 and hit five homers in 127 at-bats. Colorado’s righties are the greater traffic threat; its lefties have surprisingly supplied the greater rate of power.

• Jake McCarthy cannot be treated like an ordinary left-on-left matchup. He has hit .316/.360/.521 against left-handed pitching this season. Hunter Goodman, recently returned from a shoulder injury, has a .876 OPS and nine homers against lefties. Those are the two bats most capable of punishing a Pérez mistake, regardless of traditional platoon expectations.

• There isn’t a dramatic times-through-the-order penalty. Opponents have a .663 OPS the first time through, .677 the second and .625 the third. The larger concern is whether Pérez pitches efficiently enough to receive that third look: only four of his 21 starts have reached six innings, and two of his past three have ended after three or four.

• Truist Park has been especially kind to him. Pérez owns a 2.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home, compared with a 4.42 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road. The caution is a .195 home BABIP, suggesting some of that enormous gap is good fortune rather than a park-specific skill.

Who to watch:

• Not a ton of experience on Colorado’s roster off of Pérez, and only two players have faced him more than twice.

  • Pérez won: Ezequiel Tovar (1-9), Willi Castro (3-15, RBI), Jordan Beck and Connor Norby (0-2), Mickey Moniak (0-1)

  • Pérez has gotten got: Hunter Goodman (2-2, homer), Jake McCarthy (1-2, RBI)

Opposing Starter: RHP Ryan Feltner (5-8, 6.08 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 6.08 ERA / 5.54 xERA / 5.53 FIP

• 16.1 K% / 9.9 BB% / 6.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (28%, 94.8 mph)

• Slider (24%, 89.1 mph) ← Think of this as a cutter, based on movement profile

  • The average RHP slider is 1.4 inches IVB and 3.6 inches of gloveside movement at 86.9 mph, Feltner’s is 5.5 IVB & 4.6 glv at 89.1 mph. For a guy that’s not already sitting high-90s, this only makes sense if it’s a misclassified cutter. (Statcast defers to the player’s term for the pitch)

• Changeup (17%, 85.2 mph)

• Sinker (14%, 94.3 mph)

• Sweeper (10%, 82.3 mph)

• Curveball (7%, 79.4 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Feltner

• Make Feltner beat you with something other than the changeup. The changeup is easily his best pitch, holding hitters to a .178 average, .288 slugging percentage and .185 xwOBA with a 45.8% whiff rate. His two most-used pitches are dramatically more vulnerable: the four-seamer has allowed a .448 wOBA and .427 xwOBA, while the “slider” has allowed a .416 wOBA and .426 xwOBA. Atlanta should hunt those two pitches rather than expanding against the changeup.

• His velocity is legitimate; its effectiveness is not. Feltner averages 94.8 mph with the four-seamer and 94.3 with the sinker, and he has reached 98.3. But the four-seamer produces only a 12.5% whiff rate, while the sinker is at 15.1%. Atlanta does not need to treat his velocity like overpowering velocity.

• This is one of the clearest power matchups Atlanta has received recently. Feltner has allowed 19 home runs and a 10.9% barrel rate, with opponents producing a .490 expected slugging percentage. The four-seamer, slider, sweeper and curveball have all allowed at least a .570 expected slugging percentage. The changeup is the only pitch in the arsenal that has consistently prevented damaging airborne contact.

  • Leaving Coors Field has not solved the problem. Feltner has a 5.86 road ERA, 1.72 WHIP and 1.67 homers allowed per nine innings. Just as with Sugano yesterday: This is not a ballpark problem; it’s a Feltner problem.

• Attack him from the jump. Opponents have an .861 OPS the first time through the order, and Feltner has a 5.40 first-inning ERA. His third-time-through OPS climbs to .965, but he is already vulnerable before familiarity becomes a factor.

• The recent version has been even worse. Feltner owns a 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in August, with 34 hits and 14 walks against 16 strikeouts in 27 innings. He has allowed 12 earned runs across his past two starts, although Washington did not record its first hit against him until the fifth inning Monday. The stuff can briefly look convincing, but once traffic arrives, he has struggled to stop the inning.

• The Braves against Feltner: Both a lot of previous experience - all but three Braves have seen him - and a lot of that experience is good.

  • The good: Acuña (3-5), Albies (3-7), Olson (2-8), and Riley (3-8) have all homered, while Albies, Olson, and Riley have combined for ten RBI). Lane Thomas is 2-4, while Dom Smith and Sean Murphy are both 1-3 and Michael Harris is 2-6. Even Ha-Seong Kim is 4-8 off of Feltner.

  • The bad: Really, nobody? Olson is ‘only’ 2-8, but with a homer and three RBI, and it’s hard to argue that anyone’s been outright bad.

  • Haven’t seen him: Drake Baldwin, Mauricio Dubón, Brewer Hicklen

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Two fastball variants immediately, with the changeup taking precedence when he’s ahead/has two strikes and the “slider” taking over when he’s behind in the count. The curveball functions more as an early strike stealer than a legit whiff weapon.

vs RHH: All three fastballs dominate the at-bat until he gets ahead, at which point the same-handed sweeper ramps up. The changeup is mostly reserved for pitcher advantage counts.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• The leverage combo of Didier Fuentes and Dylan Lee (two days off) and Brent Suter (last Saturday) are your freshest guys in the armbarn today.

Potential limitations:

• Victor Mederos has thrown three times in the last four days, hitting 38 pitches over the last three and 56 in the last four, so I imagine they’d like to get him a day off if possible.

Quick takeaway:

• Winning a game by more than three runs sure would be nice! Let’s shoot for a three-inning save for Brent Suter, yeah?

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• Closer Jordan Romano and flamethrower Jaden Hill are working off of three days rest, while longman Zach Agnos has two days of rest.

Potential Limitations:

• Middle reliever Juan Mejia is now coming off a 32-pitch back-to-back, so I’d imagine he’s down today. Mark Manfredi’s 24 pitches likely has him as a yellow light for today, but that’s probably it for Colorado’s inactives.

Quick takeaway:

• I’d love to give Colorado more rest by winning with a position-players-are-eligible-to-pitch margin, yeah?

Final Thought

The Braves are favored on the moneyline at -220 to Colorado’s +200 and FanDuel has set the over/under at nine runs, the exact same margins as yesterday. The likely hinge point is Which offense can force the opposing starter to operate without his changeup? Feltner’s changeup is the only pitch consistently preventing hard contact, and Pérez’s changeup is the pitch that protects an otherwise hittable sinker-cutter combination. If Atlanta’s lefties win counts and remove Feltner’s changeup while Pérez keeps his available against Colorado’s right-handed bats, the Braves should own both sides of the matchup.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

It was the fifth inning tonight.

Atlanta entered the frame with a comfortable 4-0 lead, but Colorado got some great BABIP luck on Grant Holmes.

Starting with the #8 hitter Zac Veen, the Rockies ripped out four singles and a sacrifice fly in five batters, scoring three runs. While the results look bad on Grant’s line, I’m not convinced it actually was that bad.

All four of the singles had negative launch angles, but happened to be placed really well. Two were up the middle, splitting the gap between Ozzie Albies and the bag, while one shot down the right-field line past a diving Matt Olson and the other took a bad hop on Mauricio Dubón while also getting through Ha-Seong Kim, who was backing him up on the play. One has an expected batting average of .070, while another was at just .190, but all four made it through.

Owing to the 26 pitches he threw in the frame, Holmes was done after five, having allowed three runs on eight hits (all singles) with one walk and three strikeouts.

But the Braves were able to respond well, with Ronald Acuña Jr. opening the bottom of the fifth with a first-pitch double off the right-field wall (off a four-seam fastball, too!) and being driven in just three pitches later by Michael Harris II.

It’s the third straight game that the Braves have faced a splitter-dominant starter, and the second straight game that they’ve capitalized on one of those splitters in the heart of the zone with a shot into The Chop House.

Today’s Player of the Game

With roughly 50% of the vote, it was Acuña beating out Harris (40%) for the award on the postcast.

Just one day after getting a day off for a “mental reset”, per Walt Weiss, Acuña was back in right field, but at cleanup in the batting order.

He responded with perhaps his best game of the season.

Acuña went 3-3, scoring three times. Harris drove him in the 2nd after a leadoff walk, Dubón drove him in after a single in the 3rd, and then coming in on Harris’ 5th-inning homer.

He was just a fraction of a mph away from three hard-hit balls to do it, too, with his 94.7 mph single in the 3rd being followed by a 108.3 mph double off the right field wall and a 110.8 mph single.

But what stood out the most to me was a defensive play he made in the 7th inning. With a runner on first for reliever Ray Kerr, centerfielder Cole Carrig hit a flare down the right field line, a foul ball that was going to harmlessly bounce off the turf and into the seats.

Except it didn’t.

(Didn’t that slide look fun?)

Ronald covered 114 feet in those five-ish seconds, hitting a top speed of 30.1 ft/sec to do it.

And that 30 ft/sec mark is a big one to break, because it is MLB’s definition of a “bolt”, a speed that only the best runners can meet on a regular basis. Early in his career, before the knee injuries, Ronald did it all the time: 49 in 2018, and 43 in 2019.

He was still good for 18-20 a season after his first knee injury, but the second ACL has been a bit more deleterious to his ability to hit top speed, with Ronald hitting 30 ft/sec a combined four times over the last three seasons.

The fifth time was tonight.

If Ronald’s able to both produce 108 mph exit velocities (in the air) off of four-seamers and reach back to find that top speed we’ve so rarely seen after the second knee injury, that’s a whole different ballgame.

What You’ll Be Talking About

The budding resurgence of Acuña and Sean Murphy.

We’ve already covered Acuña, but Murphy continued his recent surge back to his former All-Star form tonight. The catcher had three exit velocities over 100 mph tonight, finishing with a double and a single, while driving in one and scoring once.

That’s now a home run and two doubles in Murphy’s last three games, with three runs scored and two RBI. It’s also now a five-game on-base streak for the slugging backstop, too.

And if both of them can keep the bats going, it gives the Braves significantly more offensive length in the lineup, as well as options going forward. Drake Baldwin can continue working as the designated hitter, something Walt Weiss said earlier this week they wanted to try and keep his legs fresh for October. If Ha-Seong Kim can keep riding the wave of confidence from his Wednesday walkoff - he got a second consecutive start tonight, going 0-3 - that allows manager Walt Weiss to continue using Mauricio Dubón for load management. Austin Riley got the night off on Friday, with Dubón covering third base, and both Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II have gotten days off thanks to Dubón this month.

More importantly, it gives the team more options against left-handers. Acuña has a career .875 OPS versus left-handed pitching, a figure that rises to .905 against lefty starters. Murphy, even in his rough 2025 season, still maintained an OPS over .800 against southpaws.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are looking to win the series early on Saturday, with veteran lefty Martín Pérez (8-8, 3.12 ERA) getting the ball opposite Ryan Feltner (5-8, 6.08) at 4:10 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: courtesy of @BravesWX on X.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
3B Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Kim gets a second consecutive start, and Acuña re-enters the lineup, batting cleanup, while Austin Riley gets the day off.

Colorado Rockies Lineup

LF Jake McCarthy
CF Cole Carrigg
C Hunter Goodman
1B TJ Rumfield
3B Willi Castro
DH Mickey Moniak
2B Connor Norby
RF Zac Veen
SS Ezequiel Tovar

Quick thoughts:

• Pretty much the usual lineup for Colorado, with a bottom three that all struggle with contact.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (8-5, 3.64)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.64 ERA / 4.82 xERA / 4.85 FIP

• 18.9% K / 10.2% BB / 8.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 35% slider, 28% four-seamer, 12% cutter, 11% curveball, 9% changeup, 6% sinker

• vs RHH: 40% slider, 30% four-seamer, 21% sinker, 3% each of cutter, curveball, changeup

What to watch:

• The August results are excellent, but this has been contact management rather than overpowering dominance. Holmes has a 2.49 ERA and .578 opponent OPS across four August starts, but only 13 strikeouts against nine walks in 21⅔ innings. The .195 opponent average is doing much of the work. His improvement is real in the results; the strikeout-to-walk foundation remains less convincing.

  • His no-hit bid followed that same formula. Holmes held the White Sox to one hit over six-plus scoreless innings last week, but recorded only three strikeouts while issuing three walks. Chicago simply could not convert its contact into hits. Against Colorado, Holmes doesn’t need to become a strikeout pitcher, but he does need to avoid issuing free passes before a ball finds the gap.

• The slider must remain the foundation. Holmes throws it 36.9% of the time, and it has produced a 39.1% whiff rate, .214 average and .300 xwOBA. The curveball has been even better in smaller usage, with a .237 xwOBA and 36% whiff rate. Those are the pitches most capable of preventing Colorado from sitting on his fastballs.

• The changeup has become a fascinating weapon. Holmes has increased its usage after barely throwing it in 2025. Hitters are 1-for-26 against it, with a .234 xwOBA. It is used almost exclusively against lefties and gives him a second weapon moving away from them rather than relying entirely on the slider’s glove-side movement.

• His fastballs remain the danger. The four-seamer has allowed a .385 xwOBA and 49.5% hard-hit rate. The sinker is at .413 with a 56.8% hard-hit rate, while the cutter has been his worst pitch at .427. Holmes’s six-pitch repertoire looks deep, but the quality is sharply divided: slider, curveball and changeup good; four-seamer, sinker and cutter vulnerable.

• The platoon split is much smaller than the ERA makes it appear. Holmes has a 2.76 ERA against lefties and 5.04 against righties, but the OPS gap is only .704 to .733. Lefties have drawn 37 walks in 315 plate appearances, so that side’s threat is traffic; righties have produced more hits and slightly more overall damage.

• The fourth inning/second time through has been the season’s danger point. Holmes has a 5.29 ERA in that frame, issuing 16 walks and allowing seven homers in 22⅓ innings. That aligns with his broader second-time-through trouble: the strikeout rate drops, the walks rise and hitters begin lifting his fastballs. With Atlanta’s bullpen completely rested after Chris Sale’s complete game, Walt Weiss has no reason to force Holmes through a prolonged middle-inning jam.

Who to watch:

• Lots of experience on Colorado’s roster off of Holmes, but a lot of it is mixed.

  • Grant’s won: Jordan Beck (0-3), Willi Castro (0-4), Ezequiel Tovar (0-5), Connor Norby (1-6), Hunter Goodman (1-6)

  • Grant’s gotten got: Troy Johnston (2-3), Mickey Moniak (2-3, HR), Ryan Ritter (1-2)

Opposing Starter: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (12-7, 4.96 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.96 ERA / 6.99 xERA / 5.43 FIP

• 13.8 K% / 5.4 BB% / 8.3% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Splitter (21%, 86.8 mph)

• Four-seamer (20%, 92.4 mph)

• Sinker (20%, 92.4 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 88.9 mph)

• Sweeper (10%, 83.6 mph)

• Slider (10%, 85.3 mph)

• Curveball (7%, 79.9 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Sugano

• Attack the fastball family instead of expanding against the splitter. Sugano throws seven pitches, but the four-seamer, sinker and cutter have all been liabilities:

  • Four-seamer: .305 AVG, .629 SLG, .418 xwOBA

  • Sinker: .351 AVG, .557 SLG, .462 xwOBA

  • Cutter: .310 AVG, .741 SLG, .487 xwOBA

  Those three pitches account for approximately 51% of his arsenal. Atlanta should remain aggressive when Sugano brings his 92-mph fastballs into the zone.

• The splitter is the one pitch Atlanta should avoid helping. It is Sugano’s most-used offering at 21.5% and his only consistent bat-misser, producing a 31.3% whiff rate. Hitters have a .187 average against it, although the .323 xwOBA suggests it hasn’t been completely unhittable. The objective is to reject it below the zone and force him back toward the fastballs.

• Load the lineup with left-handed power. Lefties have produced a .274/.325/.590 line and .915 OPS against Sugano, with 19 home runs in 287 plate appearances. Righties have a .761 OPS and seven homers. Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Mike Yastrzemski and Ozzie Albies hitting left-handed offer Atlanta’s clearest paths to damage.

• Leaving Coors does not solve Sugano’s home-run problem. He has surrendered 15 homers in 58⅔ road innings, compared with 11 in 63 innings at home. His road ERA is 4.91—nearly identical to his 5.00 mark at Coors. This isn’t a ballpark problem; it’s a Sugano problem.

• Atlanta should be ready immediately. Sugano has a 7.43 first-inning ERA, with opponents batting .357 and hitting nine home runs in 23 opening frames. His first-time-through OPS is approximately .950. This is not a matchup where Acuña and the top of the order should take hittable fastballs merely to build pitch count.

• He has been particularly vulnerable lately. Sugano owns a 7.58 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and 1.006 opponent OPS in August. He allowed five runs in two innings against Cleveland last time out, including a 44-pitch first inning, and has surrendered a homer in 10 consecutive starts.

• The quality-of-contact numbers are even worse than the 4.96 ERA. Sugano has allowed a .395 xwOBA, 90.9-mph average exit velocity and 13% barrel rate. He doesn’t miss many bats - 71 strikeouts in 121⅔ innings - so Atlanta should expect plenty of opportunities to put hittable pitches in play.

• Don’t be lulled by a clean second trip. Sugano’s second-time-through OPS is only .646, substantially better than his first and third trips. That split is unusual and probably reflects small-sample sequencing more than a real midgame transformation. His strikeout rate falls each time through, ultimately reaching only 3.3 per nine on the third trip.

• The Braves against Sugano: Virtually no experience here

  • The good: N/A

  • The bad: Dominic Smith (0-2), Lane Thomas (0-1)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Relatively static usage here with some expected adjustments (more splitters when ahead, more fastballs when behind) but also some odd ones (LESS sweepers and curveballs when ahead/two strikes).

vs RHH: The primary fastball here is the sinker, not the four-seamer, and it’s a true kitchen-sink package than just splitter-heavy. Sweeper use ramps up, although (oddly) not with two strikes, where it’s 4S/splitter focused.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• All hail Chris Sale, as the pen got a complete day off yesterday.

Potential limitations:

• Didier Fuentes could probably use another day, given that he threw 36 pitches on Wednesday.

• Raisel Iglesias warmed up for the 9th last night, so do they treat that as a short outing?

Quick takeaway:

• A much-needed reset from Sale gives Atlanta a lot of options for today’s opener.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• Closer Jordan Romano and setup man Brennan Bernardino are fresh, as is flamethrower Jaden Hill.

Potential Limitations:

• A couple of guys are getting up there in 3-day pitch counts, including Jimmy Herget (26), longman Zach Agnos (26), and middle reliever Juan Mejia (21). None of them are explicitly out today, but it does force the Rockies to decide if throwing them today is worth not having them the rest of the weekend.

Quick takeaway:

• Not a bad place to be for Colorado, honestly.

Final Thought

In a surprise to not one, the Braves are favored on the moneyline at -220 to Colorado’s +200, and FanDuel has set the over/under at nine runs. The likely hinge point is Can each pitcher keep his vulnerable fastballs protected by his best secondary pitch? Sugano needs Atlanta to chase the splitter so he can survive with 92-mph fastballs that have been hit extremely hard. Holmes needs his slider, and increasingly his changeup, working to prevent Colorado from sitting on his four-seamer, sinker and cutter.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Being cheeky here, it ended up being the very start of the game.

Ronald Acuña Jr. was given the day off by Walt Weiss, ostensibly for a mental reset while he’s been pressing at the plate, so Drake Baldwin as tonight’s leadoff hitter.

And he apparently reads Braves Today.

In The Scouting Report for today’s game, we discussed two specific quirks for Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto: How he’s been “gettable” in the first inning of games (3.91 ERA and .663 opponent OPS) and the fact that unlike a lot of splitter-reliant starters, he’s not afraid to throw the splitter in the zone early in the at-bat.

Drake Baldwin got a first-pitch splitter in the zone, thigh-high, and did NOT miss it - 106.2 mph off the bat and 402 feet into The Chop House for an early 1-0 lead.

That’d be the last run of the game, scoring on the 10th pitch that was thrown by these two starters.

Today’s Player of the Game

Duh. It’s Chris Sale.

Atlanta’s veteran ace went the distance tonight, throwing a complete-game shutout on 109 pitches (80 strikes). With the nine scoreless innings, his ERA is now down to 2.06.

He showcased the ability to miss bats, picking up 20 whiffs and a 39% CSW. A big key to this was Sale getting ahead of most batters he faced; 26 of the 34 batters he faced saw a first-pitch strike, and only one batter got to a three-ball count in the game. Sale didn’t walk anyone, although he did pull a Charlie Morton and hit two batters in the foot with breaking balls.

He showed elite stuff, reaching back for 100 mph to strike out Shohei Ohtani in the 3rd inning. The 100.1 mph fastball he threw in the AB was the 7th-hardest pitch of Sale’s career, and the first time he’s broken 100 mph since July of 2018. He got Ohtani later with 99.5 mph, one of his five hardest pitches of the season. His final pitch of the game, #109, was a 98.6 mph fastball.

He gave the Braves length, obviously, crucial on a night where the bullpen was virtually empty after being ridden hard in the series. Said Sale after the game, “Our bullpen’s done just an unbelievable job this year. They’ve picked up slack when we’ve needed them to and they’ve shut the door time and time again. […] Anytime us as starters can give them a day off, it’s huge.”

He also showed the contact management ability that separates a strikeout pitcher from an ace. Sale allowed 21 balls to be put into play tonight; only five of them were hard hit, and his overall exit velocity allowed was an anemic 86.5 mph.

But most importantly, he showed the mentality you want from your ace in the postseason. Heading back out for the ninth, despite knowing that his pitch count was already pretty high and that he had to work out of a mini-jam in the 8th, Sale admitted he told manager Walt Weiss, “I’ve got this one.”

Shades of Tom Glavine’s “Just get me one, because they’re not getting any” back in Game Six of the 1995 World Series. In my mind, he’s the greatest pitcher in baseball and it’s not particularly close.

What You’ll Be Talking About

As much as I want to talk either more about Chris Sale or about Ha-Seong Kim’s single and stolen base tonight (one of only four Atlanta hits in the game three win) and speculate if Wednesday night’s walkoff is the thing to ignite his season, let’s zoom out a bit.

The Braves are now 79-55, one game behind the Dodgers for the second seed in the National League, and hold the tiebreaker by virtue of going 5-1 against Los Angeles. While it’s improbable that Atlanta takes the 2nd seed, owing to the schedule - the Braves have the 11th-hardest remaining strength of schedule, including seven against Philly and three against both the first-place Rays and second-place Cubs, while LA’s remaining strength of schedule is 28th - the Braves don’t need to finish with a better record than the Dodgers, just the same one.

But more importantly, for all the gnashing of teeth and consternation across Braves Country after Atlanta lost series to likely playoff teams in Milwaukee, Arizona, and New York (Yankees), it’s important to acknowledge that they just swept the two-time/defending World Series champions. Even when the breaks didn’t go their way, they still found a way to win.

Anything can happen in the postseason. And after this week, it’s hard to deny that the Braves can beat anybody that might step into Truist Park this October.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are in for a classic trap series, with the Colorado Rockies coming to town for a three-game set this weekend. Here are the pitching matchups for the series.

Fri: Grant Holmes (8-5, 3.64) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (12-7, 4.96)
Sat: Martín Pérez (8-8, 3.12) vs Ryan Feltner (5-8, 6.08)
Sun: Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.41) vs Mason Adams (0-0, 2.25)

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: 79°, mostly cloudy but with a chance of thunderstorms from 7-8PM

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
DH Lane Thomas
RF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. is getting the day off, while Kim gets rewarded for last night’s heroics with a start at short.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup

DH Shohei Ohtani
CF Tommy Edman
SS Mookie Betts
1B Freddie Freeman
LF Teoscar Hernández
2B Miguel Rojas
RF Alex Call
3B Enrique Hernández
C Ben Rortvedt

Quick thoughts:

• Los Angeles goes to their platoon lineup with a lefty on the mound for Atlanta.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.20 ERA / 3.05 xERA / 2.24 FIP

• 30.6% K / 5.2% BB / 25.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 38% slider, 33% sinker, 28% four-seamer, 1% changeup

• vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 40% slider, 14% changeup, 1% sinker

What to watch:

• Sale’s second half has been even better than his 2.20 season ERA. Across six starts, he has a 2.19 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 49 strikeouts against only three walks in 37 innings. He has also avoided allowing a home run since the break.

• The slider remains the foundation. Sale throws it approximately 39% of the time, and it has held hitters to a .188 average, .242 slugging percentage and .226 xwOBA with a 38.7% whiff rate. He has not surrendered a homer with it. If the Dodgers consistently force the slider into the strike zone rather than chasing it, they can make this a much less comfortable assignment.

• Nearly all of Sale’s home-run vulnerability belongs to the four-seamer. Seven of his eight homers allowed have come against the fastball; the slider and sinker have allowed none. That pitch has been much better than it was in 2025, but it remains the offering Los Angeles is best equipped to punish when Sale misses over the plate.

• Freddie Freeman already provided the blueprint. When Sale faced Los Angeles on May 8, he completed seven innings with seven strikeouts and no walks, but Freeman hit a center-cut 96.8-mph four-seamer for a two-run homer. Sale averaged a season-best 96.4 mph that night; the mistake was location, not velo.

• The platoon split is unexpectedly narrow. Lefties have a .645 OPS against Sale, compared with .560 for righties. He has still allowed only one homer to a left-handed hitter, but Ohtani and Freeman aren’t automatically disadvantaged simply because Sale throws from the left side.

• There is a modest third-time-through power wrinkle. Opponents have a .569 OPS the first time through and .545 the second, rising to .651 on the third trip. More importantly, his home-run rate increases from below 0.4 per nine on the first two trips to 1.15 on the third. The Dodgers’ clearest opportunity may arrive when Ohtani, Betts and Freeman see him for the third time.

Who to watch:

• Lots of experience on LA’s roster off of Sale, but a lot of it is mixed.

  • Sale’s won: Max Muncy (1-7), Miguel Rojas (1-9), Kyle Tucker (1-8, 2 RBI), Tommy Edman (2-8, both singles)

  • Sale’s gotten got: Freddie Freeman (4-12, 2 HR, 2 doubles, 4 RBI), Teoscar Hernández (5-20, 1 HR, two doubles, two RBI and three walks), Shohei Ohtani (3-11, double, RBI), Mookie Betts (5-14, HR, two doubles, four RBI)

Opposing Starter: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.61 ERA / 3.02 xERA / 3.27 FIP

• 24.9 K% / 6.0 BB% / 18.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Splitter (27%, 91.4 mph)

• Four-seamer (27%, 96.1 mph)

• Cutter (15%, 91.6 mph)

• Sinker (13%, 95.5 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 77.1 mph)

• Slider (6%, 86.9 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Yamamoto

• The four-seamer is the pitch Atlanta should hunt—even though its actual results look excellent. Hitters are batting only .140 with a .325 slugging percentage against it, but the expected numbers are much less dominant: .223 xBA, .481 xSLG and .344 xwOBA. It also carries a 48.1% hard-hit rate, easily the highest of his six pitches. LA’s defense isn’t that great, so a lot of this comes down to favorable bounces.

• The splitter has officially become his primary pitch. Yamamoto is throwing it 26.9% of the time, narrowly ahead of the four-seamer at 26.8%. The 91.4-mph splitter has held hitters to a .173 average, .292 slugging percentage and .211 xwOBA while producing a 32.5% whiff rate. When Yamamoto is ahead, Atlanta’s job becomes substantially harder.

• “Take the splitter” is too simplistic. Yamamoto lands it in the strike zone 48% of the time when he is behind in the count, compared with less than 30% when using it with two strikes. Atlanta must remain aware of the count and location: attack the elevated or hanging version, but refuse to follow the chase version below the zone.

• There is no meaningful platoon escape hatch. Lefties have a .180/.241/.286 line and .527 OPS against Yamamoto; righties are at .195/.246/.336 with a .582 OPS. Loading up on left-handed hitters would produce only a marginal advantage and could weaken Atlanta elsewhere.

• The 2.61 ERA isn’t fraudulent, but the underlying metrics are slightly less overwhelming. His 3.03 xERA and 3.34 FIP suggest that his run prevention has outperformed the quality of contact and outcomes he most directly controls. That doesn’t make him lucky; it means Atlanta is facing an excellent pitcher rather than an untouchable one.

• The first inning has been his most approachable early frame. Yamamoto has a 3.91 ERA and .663 opponent OPS in the opening inning. He then becomes absurd in the second: 0.78 ERA, .232 OPS and 29 strikeouts in 23 innings. Atlanta’s top of the order may receive the night’s best immediate opportunity.

• Waiting for the third trip isn’t much of a plan. Opponents have a .529 OPS the first time through, .539 the second and .601 the third. He becomes somewhat more hittable, but not enough to justify passing up early fastballs in favorable locations.

• Yamamoto enters in excellent form. He has a 1.98 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and .526 opponent OPS across six second-half starts. In August, he has allowed six runs over 26 innings and struck out nine in each of his last two outings.

• The Braves against Yamamoto: Not a ton of experience or success here

  • The good: Ha-Seong Kim (1-5, home run), Austin Riley (1-3)

  • The bad: Ozzie Albies & Lane Thomas (0-2), Matt Olson (0-3), Mike Yastrzemski (1-6)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Primary out pitch is the splitter, with occasional curveballs. Slider isn’t really used here, just 1.1% overall, and the goal vs lefties is to get ahead and unleash the splitter, but he is willing to throw the splitter in the zone to get ahead.

vs RHH: The alternate fastball here is the sinker, not the cutter, and the slider does play a small but meaningful role. It’s much more of a true six-pitch mix than lefties will see.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Uh, Brent Suter?

• Being serious, Atlanta has Raisel Iglesias on one day of rest, a fully rested Brent Suter, and Ray Kerr (who warmed up to potentially take the 10th inning but wasn’t used) available today.

Potential limitations:

• Victor Mederos, Dylan Lee, and Dylan Dodd are all coming off back-to-backs, while Didier Fuentes threw 36 pitches last night and is almost certainly down.

  • Dodd only threw two pitches on Tuesday, but he was warming up for several innings and so they likely treated that as a standard outing for him.

Quick takeaway:

• If Chris Sale can’t give you length, we’re either going to get a lot of Ray Kerr or find out if the team was ready to move Grant Holmes into the bullpen, I guess.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• Right-handed setup men Edgardo Henriquez and Brock Stewart are both available to come back, as is lefty Alex Vesia and maybe lefty Jack Dryer

Potential Limitations:

• Swingman Eric Lauer threw 52 pitches last night and is down, so Kyle Hurt is the likely longman for LA today.

• Closer Tanner Scott’s coming off a back-to-back for LA and likely unavailable, but as he’s taken the loss in each of the first two games of the series, the Dodgers might not be too heartbroken about that.

Quick takeaway:

• Los Angeles has the bullpen advantage today, but in a matchup of starters who generally go deep, that might not matter as much.

Final Thought

The Braves, believe it or not, are favored on the moneyline: -124 to LA’s +114, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 6.5 runs. The likely hinge point is Which offense punishes the rare four-seamer left in a liftable location? Yamamoto’s splitter and Sale’s slider are the pitches each starter wants to feature once he controls the count. Atlanta must attack Yamamoto’s fastball before being pushed beneath the zone; Sale must prevent the Dodgers from sitting on the heater when his slider forces them to protect downward.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

He lined a slider 107.3 mph for a single in the fifth inning. Two innings later, he smoked a sweeper 111.9 mph, only to watch the ground ball turn into a forceout.

The four-seamers produced something very different.

Acuña popped up a 94.6 mph four-seamer in the first inning. He later struck out after swinging through consecutive fastballs at 97 and 96.3 mph. During his final plate appearance, he fouled two center-cut four-seamers at just 79.5 and 77 mph off the bat before producing that 111.9 mph ground ball against the sweeper.

One game does not create a season-long trend, but this game illustrated it almost perfectly. Acuña has not suddenly lost the ability to hit. His decline is concentrated largely against one pitch—the four-seam fastball—and particularly in what happens when he puts it into play.

Let’s talk about it.

This is an ordinary season from an abnormal hitter

Ronald Acuña Jr.’s stats aren’t bad, per se: He entered Wednesday hitting .232/.335/.407 with 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases, which comes out to a .742 OPS and a 107 wRC+.

But producing at only seven percent above league average is not a level Ronald Acuña Jr. is accustomed to occupying, with only his injury-shortened 2024 campaign being remotely comparable (106 wRC+ in 49 games).

Last season, returning partway through the year after a second ACL injury, he hit .290/.417/.518 in 95 games, a 162 wRC+ that was just shy of his 171 wRC+ from his MVP season in 2023. Ronald finished last season with 21 home runs and 74 runs scored, a 162-game pace of 36 homers and 126 runs.

In fact, Acuña has come in at least 25 percent above league average in six of his first eight major-league seasons. But this year, he has been only slightly above average.

And what’s frustrating is that his inputs are in the same realm as his career averages, from strikeout rate (23.6%) and whiff rate (29.9%) to walk rate (12.2%) and bat speed (91st percentile mark of 75.9 mph).

No, the explanation is somewhere other than a broad loss of contact ability.

It isn’t EVERY fastball

For the first time in his career, four-seam fastballs are beating Ronald Acuña Jr.

| Against four-seamers      |  2025 |  2026 |
| ------------------------- | ----: | ----: |
| Run value                 |   +16 |    -9 |
| Run value per 100 pitches |  +3.0 |  -1.8 |
| Batting average           |  .269 |  .121 |
| Slugging percentage       |  .558 |  .172 |
| Expected batting average  |  .248 |  .184 |
| Expected slugging         |  .627 |  .316 |
| Whiff rate                | 33.5% | 32.1% |
| Hard-hit rate             | 59.7% | 48.4% |
| Pitch usage against him   | 29.5% | 34.1% |

This is not a generic velocity problem, or even a fastball-family problem. Acuña is crushing sinkers to the tune of a .349 batting average, .730 slugging percentage and +10 run value.

He doesn’t have a fastball problem. He has a four-seam problem.

The strangest part is that he isn’t missing more

The very first thing I looked at when researching this piece was Ronald’s whiff rates against specific pitches, looking to see if he just wasn’t able to catch up to them.

Nope.

His whiff rate against four-seamers actually declined this season, from 33.5% to 32.1%. The strikeout rate on that specific pitch is slightly higher, from 28.9% to 29.9%, but neither change is remotely large enough to explain the collapse in his production.

His overall zone-contact rate does not suggest a broader inability to catch up to strikes. Ronald’s zone-contact rate on all pitches is actually up this season, from 73.8% to 77.4%, and that’s with an in-zone swing rate that’s about 4.6% higher than last year. And on “meatballs,” or pitches that are defined as middle-middle, Ronald’s also swinging about 1.5% more than last year.

He’s not refusing to swing at strikes, nor is he suddenly just swinging through everything. The damage just…disappears when the ball is struck.

Ronald’s four-seam hard-hit rate has dropped from 59.7% to 48.4%, and his average exit velocity on the pitch is down by more than two mph. He hit nine of his 21 homers on four-seamers last year; in 2026, it’s just one of his 13 so far.

Acuña is reaching the fastball often enough. He just isn’t arriving with the barrel in a position to punish it.

What the attack-zone graphic actually tells us

MLB sorts all pitches into one of four ‘attack zones’, defined as the Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste.

Heart: Entirely within the rulebook’s strike zone, with the outer edge of the heart being more than a full baseball’s width from the edge of the zone. Umpires calling these pitches ‘balls’ are exactly why the ABS challenge system was implemented.

Shadow: This is an area one baseball’s width on either side of the strike zone, with pitches here being borderline offerings that are called strikes roughly 50% of the time. (I’d be curious to see if this has changed with the advent of ABS)

Chase: These pitches are definitively outside the strike zone. Batters swing at them roughly 25 percent of the time.

Waste: This outermost region is completely off the plate. Pitchers almost never target the Waste area and batters almost never swing at pitches in this zone.

Ronald’s results in the heart of the zone are…concerning this year.

| Attack region | 2025 run value | 2026 run value |
| ------------- | -------------: | -------------: |
| Heart         |             +4 |             -7 |
| Shadow        |              0 |            -11 |
| Chase         |            +19 |            +14 |
| Waste         |            +11 |             +9 |

(The positive values in the chase and waste regions do not mean Acuña is crushing bad pitches. Most of that value comes from not swinging; swings and takes are the two components that comprise each zone’s run value score.)

Acuña’s swing value in the Heart fell from +10 last season to -4 this year. He continues to create value when pitchers miss well outside the zone, primarily by taking those pitches. The problem begins when they throw him something he should hit.

His slugging percentage against four-seamers in the Heart is only .205, compared with .571 last year and .674 during his MVP season.

In the heart of the zone, Ronald’s slug against four-seamers is only .205, as compared to .571 last year and .674 during his MVP season.

Don’t blame velocity

Pulling all the fastballs in the zone that he’s seen and binning them by velocity, he has struggled against four-seamers below 94 mph, between 94 and 96, and between 96 and 98 (the sample of 98 and up is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions on, honestly).

Location adds another wrinkle to this. He’s usually poor against elevated four-seamers - that’s the most effective area for the pitch, and a lot of really good hitters aren’t good at hitting them in the upper third of the zone.

But in the middle third and lower third, his performance has cratered from last year to this year:

Middle third = .302/.674 —> .211/.368
Lower third = .588/.882 —> .143/.214

He is struggling with four-seamers throughout the zone, not merely with elevated velocity.

The bat is fast enough

The mechanical aspects of the swing, as measured by Statcast, are in the same basic area as always for Ronald.

His bat speed has gone from 76.4 mph to 75.9 mph this year, a slight decrease but still in the 91st percentile. His swing length is unchanged at 7.6 feet.

But again, his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both down.

His popup rate, however, is significantly higher, rising from 5.1% to 8.1%. Mistimed contact can produce that kind of increase, although the number alone cannot prove timing is the cause.

His more-open stance offered one possible explanation early in the season. Acuña opened his feet from approximately 14 degrees to 23 degrees before mostly returning to his previous positioning. Because the four-seam struggles continued after that reversion, the stance change cannot fully explain the season-long problem.

His physical ability to generate bat speed has not disappeared. What has declined is the frequency with which he applies that speed at impact, and we don’t really know for sure why right now.

There is some bad luck, and maybe some progress?

Since Ronald was activated off the injured list from his second hamstring strain on July 27th, he’s hitting just .196/.259/.383. That line includes a .214 BABIP, while his expected results are considerably better: a .250 xBA and .432 xSLG.

Much of the gap between his actual and expected production is concentrated against four-seamers.

• Actual: .119 average, .214 slug

• Expected: .229 xBA, .396 xSLG

A 61 percent hard-hit rate against four-seamers since returning offers some hope that better results are coming. Even his expected production against the pitch, however, remains inadequate for one of Atlanta’s “aircraft carriers.”

The 111.9 mph groundout against LA is the perfect illustration of this: He’s been unlucky since returning, but that doesn’t erase a season-long four-seam problem that’s been around since before his first hamstring injury of the year.

Why this matters in October

Whether opponents are deliberately targeting this weakness cannot be determined from usage alone. But four-seam usage against Acuña has increased from 29.5 percent to 34.1 percent, and pitchers currently have little reason to change course.

Atlanta doesn’t need the 2023 MVP version of Acuña to come back. They’d take it, obviously, but it’s not required.

What is required is a version of Ronald that can punish four-seamers in the zone, so that postseason opponents can’t repeatedly challenge him with them. If he can get back to even average four-seam production, the ceiling of this Braves lineup changes significantly.

Ronald Acuña Jr. does not need to rebuild his entire offensive game. He still punishes sinkers. He still destroys offspeed pitches. His bat remains fast enough, and his strikeout rate has not spiraled.

The distance between this version of Acuña and the player Atlanta needs in October may be measured in one pitch…and four seams.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Excluding the walkoff in the 9th, which we’ll get to when we discuss the Player of the Game in just a moment, it’s worth discussing what Didier Fuentes did in this one.

Dylan Lee started the seventh and gave up three hits and a walk, scoring one, against the top of the order without recording a single out. It was mostly leaving his pitches up for the stars to hit, which has seemed to be a theme recently.

I’m not sure how I feel about it. On the one hand, it’s Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts: All former MVPs who are likely bound for the Hall of Fame. On the other hand, this is your job, Lee. This is what we are trusting him to do, and our only hope is that he can figure out what’s wrong (fatigue, perhaps?) before October.

So, Fuentes entered in the seventh with bases loaded and no outs. He was rushed in, too, and immediately walked the first hitter he faced on four pitches, scoring the tying run. But from there, Fuentes got a weak lineout to shallow left (not deep enough to score the runner from third) and a groundball double play to end the inning without LA taking the lead.

Fuentes then came back out for the 8th and almost immediately had to do it again. Teoscar Hernandez led off the frame with a swinging bunt single, but after two quick outs, the Braves decided to get cute. The dugout called for an intentional walk of Freddie Freeman in favor of Mookie Betts, but then Fuentes walked Betts as well, loading the bases.

No matter, he started a battle with Max Muncy. After a first-pitch splitter for a ball, Fuentes threw seven straight fastballs, getting Muncy to 3-2 but seemingly unable to put him away. Catcher Sean Murphy, seemingly remembering how Tanner Scott just kept grooving fastballs to Ozzie Albies last night until Albies finally got one into play for the winning run, then called for a 3-2 splitter. Fuentes executed it, getting Muncy to chase despite it being both outside and down, likely because he was geared up for an eighth-straight fastball that just never came.

That was LA’s last at-bat of the game with a runner on base.

Today’s Player of the Game

I kid you not, it’s Ha-Seong Kim.

Atlanta almost emptied the bench in this one. Sean Murphy, whose single in the 7th was his third hit of the game, was pinch-ran for by Brewer Hicklen. With the Braves having already used Lane Thomas to swap out for Mike Yastrzemski earlier in the game and Drake Baldwin having to vacate DH to go work behind the plate, Atlanta had a decision to make in the 9th after LA intentionally walked Austin Riley to get the #9 spot in the order to the plate:

Let Victor Mederos hit, or go to the bench? Despite Mederos having an RBI hit on the season already, manager Walt Weiss went to the bench and summoned the righty Kim to hit instead of the lefty Dominic Smith with lefty closer Tanner Scott in the game.

Just to reiterate: Runners on 1st and 2nd in a tie game with two outs, against the two-time defending champions, and Weiss went to Ha-Seong Kim, who hadn’t had an at-bat in eleven days and hadn’t registered a hit since June.

And Kim did the dang thing.

Kim battled, getting up 3-0, fouling off multiple fastballs in the zone, and then scalding the eighth pitch of the at-bat 102 mph to left for the winning run.

It’s undoubtedly the win of the year, given the stakes, the opponent, and the improbability of it all.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to the catchers being dominant tonight - Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin combined to go 6-8 with a homer (Murphy), three doubles (two by Baldwin), two runs scored, three RBI, a walk, and a won ABS challenge - let’s talk about Ronald Acuña Jr.

He was the only Braves starter to not get on base today and one of two to go hitless, finishing 0-5 with two strikeouts. He once again had a hard-hit out, scalding a 102.8 mph grounder in the first, but also had two sub-80 mph groundouts in this one, including a 35 mph jam shot to first with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the 8th inning.

He also committed a defensive gaffe against Shohei Ohtani in the top of the 7th, failing to get the ball in to second base in time and allowing what started off as a single to become a double.

On the mid-home angle, you can see that Ohtani slams on the brakes around first, as the ball takes a ricochet off the side wall straight to Acuña, but when Ohtani headfakes like he’s going back to first, Ronald drops his arm and points to first instead of immediately making the throw to second, giving Ohtani the time he needs to break for second and beat the eventual throw.

In a slight defense of Ronald, Olson wasn’t at first to receive a throw because he had gone into foul territory trying to field the ball, but the throw should always have been going into second base as quickly as possible. It’s a frustrating lapse in judgment for a player who hasn’t been playing up to his usual standards for most of the season, and it’s something that I’m guessing will be addressed by Walt Weiss directly (and privately, as is his style).

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Atlanta, improbably, has already won the season series against LA and is in line for a sweep of this series on Thursday. It won’t be easy, though: Atlanta has their ace on the mound in Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20), but so does LA in Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61). First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: 84° and only intermittent clouds

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy

Quick thoughts:

• Second straight start for Sean Murphy, so this might be the start of a run for the slugging catcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup

DH Shohei Ohtani
1B Freddie Freeman
SS Mookie Betts
3B Max Muncy
2B Tommy Edman
RF Kyle Tucker
CF Alek Thomas
LF Teoscar Hernandez
C Hunter Feduccia

Quick thoughts:

• LA’s restored Teoscar Hernandez to the lineup, even though Alex Call’s one of the few Dodgers to have both seen and hit AJ Smith-Shawver. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 6.23)

Quick snapshot (Five 2026 starts in AAA):

• 1.66 ERA / 2.78 xERA / 2.47 FIP

• 28.7% K / 10.3% BB / 18.4% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 48% four-seamer, 31% splitter, 15% curveball, 2% sinker, 1% slider

• vs RHH: 36% splitter, 33% four-seamer, 17% sinker, 10% slider, 3% curveball

What to watch:

• AJSS’s defining statistic: Watch the first-pitch strikes. He has begun only 50% of his 40 MLB plate appearances with a strike, contributing to five walks against seven strikeouts. His overall whiff rate has fallen from 27.1% in 2025 to 21.4%. Against a Dodgers lineup capable of taking borderline pitches, falling behind will force him away from his best weapon.

• The good news hidden inside his Minnesota line was the splitter. AJSS threw it 31 times, generated 11 whiffs and used it for all three of his strikeouts. Conversely, Minnesota missed none of his 20 four-seamers. Across both MLB outings, the 83-mph splitter owns a 42.9% whiff rate and .254 xwOBA; his 96.4-mph four-seamer has generated a microscopic 3.7% whiff rate. His velocity has returned from surgery. The question is whether the fastball plays well enough to support the splitter.

• He is physically built up for more length; execution has prevented it. AJSS threw exactly 95 pitches in each of his final two Gwinnett starts, but Atlanta has removed him after 69 and 75 pitches in the majors. Across those two starts, he allowed five runs while recording only two fifth-inning outs. If he’s inefficient today, a fifth-inning walk or prolonged plate appearance could trigger another quick hook.

• Don’t panic about LA’s lefties. AJSS has held the 24 left-handed hitters he has faced to a .400 OPS, compared with 1.000 against 16 righties. Those samples are far too small to call a real reverse split, but the splitter provides a legitimate route against the Dodgers’ left-handed core. The concern is walking them, not necessarily giving up immediate damage.

Who to watch:

• There are only two players on LA’s roster that have ever faced Smith-Shawver

  • AJSS’s won the matchup: Ben Rortvedt (0-2)

  • AJSS’s gotta be better: Alex Call (2-5, double, triple)

Opposing Starter: RHP Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.42 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.42 ERA / 4.24 xERA / 4.79 FIP

• 23.1 K% / 9.3 BB% / 13.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (42%, 97.9 mph)

• Splitter (29%, 90.2 mph)

• Slider (22%, 86.6 mph)

• Forkball (8%, 85.3 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Roki Sasaki

• Win the count and force Sasaki toward his four-seamer. When hitters are ahead, Sasaki throws his four-seamer 57.7% of the time to lefties and 51.7% to righties. When Sasaki gets ahead, his splitter usage jumps to 52.1% against lefties and 43.5% against righties. That distinction is enormous: The four-seamer has allowed a .319 average, .593 slugging percentage and .407 xwOBA, while the splitter has produced a 35.4% whiff rate and .253 xwOBA. Atlanta’s clearest path is preventing Sasaki from replacing his most hittable pitch with his best one.

• Sasaki’s post-break resurgence appears legitimate, but it hasn’t required a repertoire overhaul. He has a 2.31 ERA and .666 opponent OPS across six second-half starts after posting a 5.33 ERA and .825 OPS before the break. Over that stretch, he has trimmed his four-seam usage from 41.9% to 38.7% while increasing the splitter from 34.4% to 37.2%. His slider usage has remained near 22%, while the slower forkball has essentially disappeared.

• The more important changes may be velocity, mechanics and pitch concealment. Sasaki’s four-seamer has averaged approximately 98.7 mph since the break, nearly one mph above his season average. The Dodgers also reportedly believed he had been tipping pitches and gave him a larger glove to better conceal his grip, while Sasaki adjusted his lower half. Atlanta isn’t facing a dramatically different pitcher so much as a better-disguised and slightly more splitter-heavy version of the same one.

• There is a reverse-split wrinkle. Right-handed hitters have produced a .325 on-base percentage, .519 slugging percentage and .844 OPS against Sasaki, compared with a .311 OBP, .419 slugging percentage and .730 OPS by lefties. He has surrendered 11 home runs to righties in 209 plate appearances, so Acuña and Riley shouldn’t be viewed as the disadvantaged hitters in this matchup.

• The second trip through the order has provided the best opportunity. Opponents have a .714 OPS and 1.08 WHIP the first time through, rising to an .845 OPS and 1.61 WHIP on the second trip. His strikeout rate barely changes; the difference has been more hits and walks. Atlanta needs to make its first look informative without allowing Sasaki to complete it in 30 pitches.

• The command still gives Atlanta something to pressure. Sasaki has issued 13 walks in 35 innings since the break, including seven across 17 August innings. The pitch concealment and home-run prevention have improved, but he hasn’t suddenly become a strike-throwing machine. Patient aggression—taking the splitter below the zone without conceding hittable fastballs—is the balance Atlanta must find.

• One bizarre small-sample split: Sasaki has allowed 10 of his 21 home runs in the second inning, producing a 5.73 ERA in that frame compared with a 2.05 first-inning ERA. It isn’t something Atlanta can reasonably expect to continue, but it makes the bottom half of the lineup particularly interesting during its first opportunity against him.

• The Braves against Sasaki: Not a ton of experience or success here

  • The good: Ozzie Albies (2-3, home run), Austin Riley (1-2)

  • The bad: Sean Murphy (0-3), Michael Harris II (0-2), Matt Olson (0-1)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Almost entirely a FB/splitter attack, with some sliders early in the count and when behind to get back into the count.

vs RHH: The slider’s a legitimate third part of the attack here, with higher splitter usage when ahead in the count and with two strikes but sliders more frequent early in the count and when behind.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Didier Fuentes has had two days off, with Brent Suter working on three days off and Ray Kerr having not pitched since sometime last week.

Potential limitations:

• The rest of the non-Fuentes leverage contingent pitched last night, as did Victor Mederos. Dylan Dodd vultured a win on only two pitches, but he was warming up early in the game so it’s possible they treat yesterday like a standard-length outing versus a short one.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has the pieces they need to take the series, if they can get a lead late, but that makes Thursday an open question.

  • Worry about Thursday when you get there, honestly.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• Longman (and lefty) Eric Lauer is fresh, as are righty-handed setup men Edgardo Henriquez and Brock Stewart.

Potential Limitations:

• Lefty Jack Dryer is likely down today, after 27 pitches last night, and leverage arms Alex Vesia, Tanner Scott, and Evan Phillips would all be on a back-to-back if used today.

Quick takeaway:

• Los Angeles has all the pieces they need, but any sort of leverage usage today for the Dodgers will have the missing pieces on Thursday.

Final Thought

Braves are an underdog on the moneyline: +116 to LA’s -126, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. The likely hinge point is Chase Swings below the zone. Atlanta must refuse to chase Sasaki’s splitter and slider there, because pitcher’s counts allow him to replace his vulnerable four-seamer with his best secondary pitches. AJ Smith-Shawver needs the Dodgers to offer at his splitter in exactly that location. If either offense controls the bottom of the zone and forces the opposing starter back toward his four-seamer, the advantage shifts decisively toward the hitters and LA’s have been better recently than Atlanta’s.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

For months, every injury update has carried an implicit second question:

Could they be back for October?

On August 25, we’re finally reaching the point where the calendar is answering for them. And the answers aren’t what Braves fans were hoping for.

“The window’s getting smaller for them,” Walt Weiss told the media on Tuesday afternoon. “I’m not ruling it out, but you just do the math on those types of things.”

Let's talk about it.

Reynaldo López is the exception

López has been out since the start of August with left knee inflammation, which infamously caused him to get scratched less than two hours before game time. Martín Pérez took the ball on roughly 35 minutes' notice, taking a no-hitter into the 7th in an 8-3 win.

López made his first rehab start on Sunday for Triple-A Gwinnett, firing four scoreless innings with three hits and three strikeouts. He threw 50 pitches, inducing 25 swings (six whiffs) and averaged only 93.5 mph on his four-seam fastball (nearly a full MPH below his season average).

And so the Braves are going to ask him to make another one. Walt Weiss confirmed on Tuesday that López will get the ball on Friday for the Stripers, with a goal of 65 pitches. A 65-pitch target also suggests Atlanta isn't rushing him back, and there's probably at least one more rehab outing coming before he's ready for a traditional starter's workload.

Given the lower velo, I’m fine with slow-playing this. But the fact that the rotation’s currently full - overloaded, actually, given that they’re temporarily running a six-man - means that the Braves can take their time with López.

It also prompts a question: What exactly is Reynaldo López returning to do? That’s worth exploring.

The team has insisted somewhat recently that they still view him as a starter, but he’s been an effective reliever before, and Atlanta (improbably) has too many starters before accounting for López.

Given the calendar, do you need to build him all the way back to a 75-85 pitch count before returning him from the injured list? Or does the “27 outs” philosophy, combined with the currently stocked bullpen (and the additional roster spot on September 1st) mean that there’s another option here?

If López can get to that 60-75 pitch range, but with better velo than we saw on Sunday, that’s potentially twelve to fifteen extremely useful October outs, whether he’s starting or following someone else.

And honestly, López looks like the only injured Braves starter whose October role is worth debating, because he's the only one currently close enough to reasonably have one.

Robert Suarez is racing the calendar

Walt Weiss said that Suarez is “still moving slowly” in his throwing progression - he recently extended his throwing progression to 100 feet to build up his arm strength, but hasn’t yet thrown off a mound.

And that’s a bit concerning, as it’s a prerequisite to a full bullpen session, and usually multiple of those are required (some involving live hitters) before a rehab assignment can happen.

Even if Weiss’s timeline of Suarez being “close” to that bullpen session is correct, that’s still cutting things close.

We’re over two months since Suarez last threw in a game (June 19th) and even if Suarez gets onto a mound soon, there’s still a progression between his first bullpen and a major-league game: additional bullpens, likely work against hitters and some form of game action. The Braves haven’t provided a timetable for those steps.

And that’s the problem. There isn’t much timetable left. Even the rehab outings are under a time crunch: the end of Gwinnett’s season is on September 20th.

To be clear, the Braves haven’t given a timetable other than Alex Anthopoulos discussing Suarez’s target being “October” back at the deadline, and Walt Weiss saying there’s still a chance Suarez can be back during the regular season.

If he makes it back? That’s huge, adding another high-leverage arm towards the 27-outs puzzle. But given the lack of wiggle room with the schedule and any setback essentially ending his season, it feels more possible than probable based on what we know so far.

“You just do the math”

The trio of Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, and Hurston Waldrep are all postseason-caliber arms that are currently in the midst of throwing programs. Schwellenbach started his in June, while both Waldrep and Strider started theirs earlier this month.

No meaningful progression was announced today in their efforts to return this season. And at this point, it’s looking highly unlikely.

It’s a much longer lift to get a starter back than a reliever. And in the case of Suarez, who is ahead of all of these guys, we’re still discussing a best-case scenario of late September. The number of steps in front of these guys is becoming daunting:

throwing progression → mound work → live BP → rehab assignment to build workload → MLB activation

And even if everything proceeds perfectly, there just aren’t many calendar squares left.

But I want to go back to the specifics of Weiss’ quotes here.

“The window’s getting smaller for them. I’m not ruling it out, but you just do the math on those types of things.”

They’re not officially ruled out of returning for 2026, but it’s also unreasonable to expect them back at this point. Important distinction. Teams rarely close doors before it's medically necessary/certain. But when the team’s manager is publicly saying “do the math”, it’s very easy to see the calendar and interpret what he means.

Joe Jiménez is finally throwing again

Joe Jiménez was quietly one of the most dominant relievers of 2024, putting up a 2.62 ERA with a statcast card almost entirely full of bright red.

But a late season knee injury, one that he pitched on despite it sapping his fastball velo, was eventually too much to bear and he had an arthroscopic procedure on it soon after the season wrapped.

He still hasn’t returned.

He needed two additional surgeries on the knee over the next year and a half, putting his career into question. Things have started to turn in his favor, though, with the righthander completing his fifth bullpen session and remarking after on social media that he feels the best he has since the injury.

“There’s still work to do, but I can feel it: I’m getting closer to playing again. One day at a time. Keep pushing.”

It’s genuinely good news! It’s just probably not 2026 Braves news.

After everything Jiménez has been through over the last two years, including potentially having the game taken away from him abruptly, don’t judge his progress by whether he makes it into a game this season. Getting back onto a mound and completing five bullpens is itself meaningful progress.

If Jiménez wants to continue his comeback, a minor-league/NRI reunion could make sense for both sides. Atlanta knows his medical history and rehab process better than anyone, while Jiménez would get an opportunity to finish what has effectively been a two-year road back to competition.

Atlanta is narrowing down its list of October pitchers

For months, there were all these hypothetical additions sitting on the IL.

Now we can remove the names that probably aren’t coming.

Schwellenbach

Strider

Waldrep

The October pitching staff increasingly has to be built around the healthy pitchers Atlanta already has, with López as the realistic reinforcement and Suarez as the potential wild card.

It’s possible that there’s a prospect addition or two late in the year, after a September audition (I’m going to talk about Blake Burkhalter here pretty soon), but the guys you have are the guys you have, and there’s not a lot of help coming.

The Braves don’t have to officially rule out Strider, Schwellenbach or Waldrep today. There’s no benefit to doing so.

But there’s a difference between leaving a door open and expecting someone to walk through it.

With five weeks remaining in the regular season, Atlanta’s October pitching staff is beginning to come into focus. López is working toward joining it. Suarez still has a chance.

For everyone else, you just do the math.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The bottom of the 8th inning was when Atlanta took the lead, and the top of the 9th was when they won the game.

Tied at three and deep into the bullpens, Matt Olson opened the bottom of the 8th with the game’s first extra-base hit, a left-on-left double off of closer Tanner Scott.

It was a nice piece of hitting. The slide into second? Not so much.

And then Atlanta got to work with the manufacturing. Mauricio Dubón showed bunt before pulling the ball back and slashing a grounder to 2B Tommy Edman, pushing Olson to third. (Walt Weiss confirmed after the game that this wasn’t called or planned, it was entirely Dubón’s doing.) Michael Harris II got a bit overeager to score the run, though, swinging at an elevated slider inside and weakly punching it back at the pitcher for the second out.

And then Ozhaino Jurdy Jiandro Albies came to the plate.

Unable to extend his team-record sacrifice fly total he set earlier in the game, since there were two outs, Ozzie instead punched an 0-2 slider into centerfield to bring in Olson and give Atlanta the lead.

But LA almost took it right back.

Raisel Iglesias gave up a rocket off the bat of Shohei Ohtani to open the 9th, with Lane Thomas continuously drifting all the way back to the warning track just to watch the ball clang off his glove (and the wall) for a leadoff triple.

So Iglesias just cowboy’d up and got out of the jam.

With the infield in, he got Freddie Freeman to strike out with possibly the best changeup he’s thrown all season before inducing a weak grounder off the bat of Mookie Betts.

Atlanta then intentionally walked the red-hot Max Muncy to face Tommy Edman, who spoiled three fantastic changeups down and away before weakly flying out to centerfield to secure the win for the Braves.

Today’s Player of the Game

With just over 50% of the vote on the postcast, it’s Ozzie Albies.

As I alluded to above, Ozzie set the team single-season sacrifice fly record with his 13th tonight, which finished the scoring in Atlanta’s three-run first inning.

It should have been at least four runs in the first, but a passed ball with a runner on third was ruled to be a foul ball off of the bat of Mike Yastrzemski, despite video replay clearly showing that Yaz never touched the ball on his swing and the additional contact that the umpire heard was likely the ball hitting the catcher’s foot, not Yaz’s bat.

Those types of plays are, unfortunately, not reviewable by the teams and the officials declined to call a crew chief review, even after Walt Weiss (quite animatedly) requested one.

Said Weiss after the game, “Not a reviewable play. I'm not sure why that's the case, but that's the rules. […] I'd like to hear the argument against it. I don't think there is one."

Ozzie’s overall production is still being carried by a hot start to the season; he’s had two OPS marks in the .600s or lower since, including a .611 in August and a .594 in May. But despite the overall lack of performance, he’s been able to come through when it matters.

In what FanGraphs defines as “high leverage” situations this season, Ozzie has a 124 wRC+, and his line with a runner in scoring position and two outs is an absurd .298/.365/.383, good for a 113 wRC+.

Even with the summer slump, Ozzie’s done enough to at least have his final $7M club option picked up next year, with the Braves needing to figure out either a reasonable extension or a succession plan behind the team’s longest-tenured player.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to Ronald Acuña Jr’s struggles tonight (and this season), which I’m reserving for the podcast tomorrow, let’s discuss Bryce Elder’s start.

The surface stats are pretty good: three runs over six innings, with no walks and five strikeouts. The hit total, eight, was a bit concerning until you see both the distribution and the exit velocities allowed. The top of the order, the dangerous trio of former MVPs in Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman, went a combined 0-9 with one strikeout off of Elder.

No, most of his damage was logged by the bottom of the order, with both #7 hitter Alex Call and #9 hitter Hunter Feduccia finishing with two hits and an RBI each, while #8 hitter Alek Thomas added his own RBI single.

And it’s not like these were well-struck balls, either - of the 21 balls in play off of Elder, only four were hard-hit and the average exit velocity he allowed was an anemic 84.7 mph. His changeup was the star of the show, getting half of his 12 whiffs.

You could tell that Elder’s outing was a good one by the fact that manager Walt Weiss allowed him to go back out for the sixth, sticking with him despite a leadoff HBP of Tommy Edman and a single to Alex Call that put a runner in scoring position with only one out. Two more strikeouts ended the threat and Elder’s night, and his ERA is now down to 3.95.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Atlanta’s back at it tomorrow night, with AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 6.23) taking on Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.42) at 7:15 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: 91° and sunny

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s (hopefully) giving more run to Sean Murphy in an attempt to get his bat going, with the slugger batting 9th against a righty.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup

DH Shohei Ohtani
1B Freddie Freeman
SS Mookie Betts
3B Max Muncy
2B Tommy Edman
RF Kyle Tucker
LF Alex Call
CF Alek Thomas
C Hunter Feduccia

Quick thoughts:

• LA’s giving Teoscar Hernandez the day off, going with a decidedly suboptimal outfield of Call-Thomas-Tucker (although Tucker has been better away from Dodger Stadium).

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.92)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.92 ERA / 4.02 xERA / 4.57 FIP

• 19.5% K / 7.9% BB / 11.6% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 29% four-seamer, 22% slider, 19% cutter, 15% sinker, 14% changeup

• vs RHH: 51% sinker, 26% slider, 10% four-seamer, 8% cutter, 5% changeup

What to watch:

• Elder’s defining variable: the extra rest, not necessarily the knee. He’ll pitch on eight days’ rest after Atlanta skipped his turn. In four starts this season with six or more days’ rest, Elder has allowed 19 earned runs and eight homers in 20 innings—a brutal 8.55 ERA. Compare that with a 3.20 ERA on four days’ rest and 3.48 on five. It’s only four starts and overlaps with his June downturn, but the contrast is too large to ignore. Interestingly, he threw more strikes in those extra-rest outings; the issue was pitches catching too much plate, not simple wildness.

• What to watch: Has the changeup become Elder’s primary answer to lefties? Over his last three starts, Elder has increased his changeup usage from 11% for the season to 25%, while cutting his slider from 24% to 12%. That makes sense: the changeup has held hitters to a .169 average, .203 slugging percentage and .207 xwOBA with a 29.1% whiff rate. With Ohtani and Freeman awaiting him, maintaining that confidence could be essential.

• Don’t expect the May rematch to look identical. Elder blanked Los Angeles for 5⅔ innings on May 10, allowing one hit with eight strikeouts and four walks. That was an unusually overpowering Elder outing: 13 whiffs on 83 pitches, with his four-seamer averaging 93.4 mph and sinker 92.2. In his last start, those pitches averaged 91.0 and 89.5, respectively. He says the knee is fully recovered, so the early velocity readings will help tell us whether that dip was physical or merely an isolated low-gear afternoon.

• The handedness split is backward—but probably somewhat BABIP-driven. Lefties have managed only a .206/.279/.371 line against Elder, while righties are at .286/.332/.448. The sizable batting-average gap appears heavily influenced by balls finding grass, but it still means Betts, Hernández and the Dodgers’ other righties shouldn’t be treated as the softer portion of the assignment.

Who to watch:

• Most of LA’s roster has faced Elder, with decidedly mixed results

  • Elder’s won the matchup: Mookie Betts (2-11, albeit with a home run), Shohei Ohtani (2-10, albeit with a home run), Max Muncy (3-14, albeit with a home run), Kyle Tucker (0-4), Teoscar Hernandez (2-7)

  • Elder’s gotta be better: Tommy Edman (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Freddie Freeman (4-12)

Opposing Starter: RHP Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 2.72 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.72 ERA / 2.61 xERA / 3.24 FIP

• 33.1 K% / 8.8 BB% / 24.3% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Curveball (30%, 81.2 mph)

• Four-seamer (29%, 95.3 mph)

• Sinker (25%, 95.7 mph)

• Slider (16%, 89.3 mph)

What This Means for the Braves

• Atlanta’s path against Glasnow: Make him throw the four-seamer. His curveball group has generated a 50% whiff rate and .125 xwOBA, while the slider is at 41.3% and .175. The four-seamer is the glaring exception: only an 11.8% whiff rate with a .389 xwOBA and .649 slugging percentage allowed. Atlanta cannot afford to chase the breaking balls below the zone and let Glasnow hide that fastball.

• Rust is not the obvious bet. In his final rehab start, Glasnow threw 77 pitches over 5⅓ innings, allowed one hit and one walk, and struck out nine. His four-seamer averaged 95.5 mph, and his knuckle curve generated six of his 12 whiffs. He finished the assignment with 17 strikeouts across his final nine innings. The stuff appears ready; the better question is whether Atlanta can force enough deep counts to make 77 pitches feel like a meaningful workload ceiling.

• Loading up on lefties is about creating traffic, not necessarily hitting him. Left-handed hitters are batting only .145 against Glasnow, but they have drawn 11 of the 13 walks he has issued. Righties have 21 strikeouts against only two walks. Baldwin, Olson, Harris and Atlanta’s other left-handed options offer the best chance to run up his pitch count.

• There isn’t a compelling first-inning or times-through-the-order vulnerability. Glasnow has a 2.57 first-inning ERA with ten strikeouts in seven innings. His second-time-through ERA is 4.80, but the accompanying .260 wOBA and 15-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio argue against treating that as a real weakness.

• The Braves against Glasnow: Not a ton of experience or success here

  • The good: Sean Murphy (1-2, HR), Mike Yastrzemski (1-3)

  • The bad: Ronald Acuña Jr.(2-8), Matt Olson and Austin Riley (both 1-10), Ozzie Albies (0-9), Michael Harris II (1-8)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A fairly common curveball-based arsenal, one that ramps up curveball usage when ahead and both fastballs when behind.

vs RHH: A multi-fastball arsenal with relatively static four-seam use. He severely ramps up the curveball(s) when ahead, swapping that usage for the sinker when behind, as well as using the slider mostly prior to two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available/Potential limitations:

• Everyone’s had at least one day off, although I’d imagine the pitch count for Didier Fuentes from Sunday means you’d like to avoid him if this wasn’t, y’know, the Dodgers.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has the pieces they need to secure a win, if they can get a lead here.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available/Potential Limitations:

• None

Quick takeaway:

• Los Angeles is as close to full availability as you can get for a late-August regular season matchup, thanks to both light weekend usage and Monday’s off day.

Final Thought

Braves are a heavy underdog on the moneyline: +138 to LA’s -148, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. The likely hinge point is Count Leverage: If Atlanta expands against Glasnow’s curveballs, his rehab workload won’t matter because he can dominate five efficient innings. If the Braves take those pitches and force him back toward the four-seamer, they can both attack his weakest offering and reach the Dodgers’ bullpen early. For Elder, the corresponding question is whether the extra rest produces refreshed velocity so he can get swing-and-miss on the slider, or if it instead results in the center-cut mistakes and home runs that have defined his other long-rest outings.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Historically, first-rounders have had a 73-81% chance of making the majors, and a second-rounder comes out to 50-63%. After that, it’s more likely than not that the player doesn’t make the majors, settling in close to 10% by the time you get to rounds 11-20.

And even if a player makes the majors, it’s no guarantee that they’ll make an impact. Roughly 9.8% of draftees, per a Baseball America study, eventually produce even 0.1 career WAR. So when you’re looking at one team’s 20-or-21-player draft class, proper perspective matters. Most of these guys aren’t going to make it.

But that’s no fun.

Because a month into their professional careers, a few members of Atlanta’s 2026 draft class are already doing some really interesting things. And somehow, one of the most intriguing performances of the bunch belongs to a guy Atlanta didn’t draft at all.

Let’s talk about it.

The “overdrafted” outfielder

Atlanta’s first pick at #9, Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia, won’t debut until next season after undergoing shoulder surgery shortly after the draft. The Braves signed him for roughly $4M against a $6.68M slot value, creating significant savings to deploy elsewhere in the class.

They also made significant savings with their second pick in the first round, taking Indiana State outfielder Carter Beck at pick #26. Beck was ranked as more of a second-round talent by several public outlets, making Atlanta's decision to take him at No. 26 one of the more criticized picks of the first night.

Seventeen professional games later, we’re obviously nowhere close to declaring Atlanta right.

Between Single-A Augusta (eleven games) and High-A Rome (six games), he’s hitting .354/.440/.446 with nine runs scored, ten walks to twelve strikeouts, and eight stolen bases. He’s reached base in all but one of his professional games to date, and his 170 wRC+ is 96th percentile in the minors (albeit in a small sample size).

The debut’s not been perfect - he’s been thrown out three times in nine stolen base attempts and he’s not yet been able to tap into his pull-side power (12th percentile Pull Air % of 7.9%), but the high floor is there. If more impact starts showing up in the profile, you can see Atlanta’s draft-day vision beginning to resolve with Beck.

The most productive $500 in baseball

Per Friend of Braves Today Jesús Cano of The Athletic, the Braves shocked some in the industry with their aggressive underslot deals to the players taken in rounds eight through ten of the most recent draft: Just $500.

The selections and aggressive discounting of three out-of-leverage college seniors allowed Atlanta to reserve $653,000 in assigned slot value for their high-upside prep draftees in rounds 2-4.

But unlike most $500 senior signees - players normally destined to fill out the organization’s minor league rosters - ninth-rounder Parker Brosius is already outplaying his bonus.

Coming out of nearby Georgia Tech after a breakout senior year, Brosius has been a revelation in his first taste of professional baseball. Stationed in Single-A Augusta, he’s hitting .286/.390/.469 with 10 stolen bases and 11 runs scored in just 15 games. Per reports, he’s been handling premium velocity while putting up his own stellar exit velocities.

It’s not all perfection at the moment. Brosius, who is nearly two years older than the average Single-A player, is showing an unusually patient approach (41.6% overall swing rate, and only 61.69% in the zone) and yet is still striking out 27.1% of the time - he’s not attacking enough strikes, yet is still striking out too much. His walk rate is also atypical for that level of patience, just 8.5%, low for the minors (25th percentile), meaning that his professional strikeout total (16 in 59 PAs) nearly equals his senior season’s total of 18 in 123 PAs.

But despite the plate discipline profile and the age-to-level working against him, he’s flashed more physical tools than you’d normally expect from a $500 senior sign and looks to potentially be one of the more intriguing senior signs in recent organizational history.

Speaking of budget acquisitions…

If getting that kind of production from a $500 draft pick qualifies as finding value, Atlanta did even better with Daniel Brooks.

They didn’t have to draft him at all.

Many modern undrafted free agents come with an obvious explanation for why nobody selected them. Sometimes it was injury, or they just had a terrible final college season.

And then sometimes, 30 organizations simply miss.

Daniel Brooks went undrafted out of College of Charleston in the 2025 draft, despite an ERA in the low 4s and averaging just under a strikeout per inning in his senior year. He then tore it up in a short stay in the MLB Draft League, striking out ten in just 5.2 innings with just two runs allowed.

He still went unselected, eventually signing a UDFA deal with Atlanta.

And then got to work.

The 6’8, 250-pounder worked as a reliever in the complex league this year, posting a 6.17 ERA, but Atlanta still promoted him to Augusta in June. All he did for the GreenJackets was dominate, allowing just two earned runs in 27.2 innings with 46 strikeouts to only seven walks. The last of those outings was his first professional start, with ten punchies over five scoreless innings with just three hits and no walks.

He then got bumped up to Rome and stuck into the Emperors’ rotation, where he struck out six with just one hit and one walk in his High-A debut last week.

It’s a limited package at the moment: a high-slot, low-90s fastball and a mid-80s slider, but a package that’s remarkably consistent thanks to smooth, easy mechanics that Brooks can easily repeat. Plagued by a long arm action early in his career that caused him to struggle to land his curveball and changeup effectively, he’s shortened his throwing motion and added a bit of deception to his delivery.

The next question is whether Atlanta can find another gear. A few more ticks of velocity would dramatically change Brooks’ profile, especially if he can develop a reliable third offering behind the fastball and slider. 93-94 isn’t much to speak of for a pitcher with that frame, Baseball America recently remarked that his velocity has been steadily improving throughout the season, and there is belief that more is coming,

That’s admittedly notable for an organization we’ve criticized for struggling to add velocity to its pitching prospects. If Brooks is one of the exceptions, the Braves may have stumbled into something much more interesting than organizational depth. These are the sort of rapid developmental leaps that could put him on organizational Top 30 lists as soon as next season.

At some point, you stop asking why nobody drafted him and start wondering what Atlanta found after everyone else went home.

Seventeen games don’t make Carter Beck a successful first-round pick. Fifteen games don’t make Parker Brosius the steal of the ninth round, and 33 dominant innings don’t guarantee Daniel Brooks ever throws a pitch in Atlanta.

That’s the point of those depressing draft probabilities at the top of this article.

But player development isn’t about making every pick work. It’s about finding enough wins throughout a class, and occasionally finding one somewhere nobody expected.

A first-round “reach.” A $500 senior sign. A guy nobody drafted.

It’s far too early to know what Atlanta has in any of them.

But that’s no fun.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The bottom of the ninth inning.

Atlanta was sending Raisel Iglesias out for a second inning of work, having called on their closer for a single out to finish the 8th. The up/down seemed to impact Iggy in the 9th, as he wasn’t as sharp as usual and quickly got himself into a jam. Jackson Chourio singled on a 2-2 center-cut changeup, and then Brice Turang reached via a non-competitive four-pitch walk.

Iglesias then gave up a deep fly ball to former Brave William Contreras, incredibly loud on the ESPN broadcast but ‘only’ 380 feet to the right-center wall, where it was snagged by Michael Harris II for the first out of the inning.

And then with runners on the corners, Iggy clutched up and got himself out of the jam. Murphy called for a slider down and in on a lefty hitter (!) and all Jake Bauers could do was weakly punch it back up the middle. Iglesias snagged it, whirled for a short-hop throw to second base, where Mauricio Dubón made a great pick and then made his own short-hop throw to Matt Olson at first for a game-ending double play.

The alternate angle, shown by ESPN while they were waiting for the results of a desperation challenge by Milwaukee of the out at second base (you can’t take them home with you, so why not?), showed the great picks by both Dubón and Olson on the play.

Today’s Player of the Game

The people gave it to Tyler Mahle on the postcast, coming in at just under 50% of the vote.

Mahle continued the progress he’s made since being traded to Atlanta, finishing five innings with one run allowed and striking out four. His ERA with the Braves is now just 1.52, with Braves broadcaster CJ Nitkowski tweeting a graphic about how Mahle’s outpaced all of the starting pitchers traded at this year’s deadline with their new teams.

Today’s big revelation was that the fastball was able to carry the profile, with Mahle’s nine total whiffs coming more from the heater (six) than either the splitter (two) or cutter (one). He was able to sit 94 and touch 96 mph on the fastball, carrying his improved velocity all the way through the 94-pitch outing by averaging 93.8 in the final inning.

Walt Weiss was interviewed on the broadcast, discussing how Mahle and catcher Sean Murphy have very quickly gelled together and are working well at adjusting Mahle’s game plans from start to start.

He did get into a bit of trouble that led to him being pulled before recording an out in the sixth, giving up a single and a fielder’s choice that put two on. Didier Fuentes, once again, came in and cleaned up the mess, showcasing a new sinker to do it.

Today’s Player of the Game - Honorable Mention

I make the Player of the Game poll for the Postcast’s YouTube live chat on the fly during the 9th inning of a win, grabbing the notable stat lines that end up making the background and listing the top four on the poll.

As Jake pointed out in the show, I whiffed on not including the defense as a whole.

Despite Matt Olson getting tagged with an error when Andrew Vaughn ran way onto the grass while heading to second base to interfere with a potential double play, the Braves still turned three different bang-bang double plays today. Several outfielders had key catches, including an early diving catch on a sinking liner by Ronald Acuña Jr. and the aforementioned running catch at the wall on Contreras’ 9th-inning fly ball.

Atlanta’s ability to generate a ground ball seemingly on command tonight is partially what allowed them to hold an excellent situational offense like Milwaukee’s to just 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position, stranding 11 on base. In a close matchup against another playoff team, those little things matter.

What You’ll Be Talking About

On the whole, Atlanta’s offense wasn’t able to do enough of those little things, and while they managed to win in spite of that tonight, it’s a warning sign for October.

Ronald Acuña Jr. was thrown out trying to score from second base on an Ozzie Albies single to left. He committed to going home early, having his head down as he rounded third and missing the late stop sign from coach Tommy Watkins. When he finally realized he was being held, he smashed on the brakes (always nerve-wracking when both ACL’s are surgically repaired and one of them was torn while changing direction on the basepaths) and tried to get back to third base, with catcher William Contreras gunning him down.

Sean Murphy, who had a two-out RBI single in the 4th inning, missed a similar opportunity in the 2nd inning, popping out with a runner on third and only one out. Autin Riley struck out in that exact same runner-on-third situation before Murphy’s 4th inning single. Matt Olson grounded into two separate double plays in this game, in each of his first two at-bats, while Walt Weiss left LHP-mashing-specialist Lane Thomas in the game to ground out against a righty to open the sixth.

As we discussed on the postcast, these three playoff-caliber series that Atlanta has lost - the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Brewers - were a Rorschach Test because it allowed people to project whatever their own existing beliefs about the team onto the results.

An optimist could easily look at how the Braves were never blown out by any of those teams, holding all of them to relatively close margins and lower scores, and conclude that one random break in Atlanta’s favor - Chris Sale not getting called for a balk in New York, for instance, or normal BABIP luck against Arizona - would be the difference in a loss and a win.

A pessimist, however, could easily (and correctly) point to the fact that while the games were all close, they didn’t get the breaks or do the little things and, consequently, didn’t win them. Were this a three-game postseason series, Atlanta would already be eliminated and planning out their offseason vacations.

The real team is somewhere in the middle. Can they push the Overton Window closer towards the March/April ‘best team in baseball’ side by the end of September instead of its current lean towards June’s ‘worst team in baseball’ alignment?

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

Final Little League Classic Thought

In case you forgot, the Little League Classic is a great reminder that at the end of the day, this is a game. The broadcast, as frustrating as it was for not always trying to show and tell us about the game that was being played, brought frequent reminders of the reason this game is placed in Williamsport, PA every season.

We saw Ozzie Albies acting like a “proud dad” when working with the Curaçao team, Mauricio Dubón taking time out of his pregame prep to sit and talk to a group of Latin American youths, Ronald Acuña Jr. being swarmed by the kids, and several Braves in attendance watching the youth games from earlier in the day.

And as always, the game finished with the handshake line, which I wouldn’t be bummed to see brought to the Major League level on a regular basis.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves have a much-needed off-day on Monday before preparing their slings for a bout against Goliath, with the Los Angeles Dodgers coming into town for a three-game set. Both teams have announced their rotations for the matchup:

Tue: Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.92) vs an injury-returning Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 2.72)
Wed: AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 6.23) vs Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.42)
Thu: Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61)