Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:20 PM ET

• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

• TV: Peacock

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 55° partly sunny, wind WNW at 13 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II

Quick thoughts:

• No changes from the standard RHP lineup for Atlanta.

Philadelphia Phillies

SS Trea Turner (R)
DH Kyle Schwarber (L)
1B Bryce Harper (L)
RF Adolis García (R)
LF Brandon Marsh (L)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
2B Bryson Stott (L)
C Rafael Marchán (S)
CF Justin Crawford (L)

Quick thoughts:

• Catcher J.T. Realmuto left last night’s game with back tightness and is not in today’s lineup. Is he being held out because of the back, or is this a planned rest day for the veteran?

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Grant Holmes (1-1, 3.32)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.32 ERA / 3.16 xERA / 4.14 FIP

• 19.3 K% / 11.4 BB% / 8% K-BB%

• Pitch mix

  • vs LHH: 45% four-seamer, 33% slider, 12% curveball, 7% changeup, 2% cutter & sinker

  • vs RHH: 49% slider, 33% four-seamer, 13% sinker, 4% curveball, 1% cutter

• What’s changed in 2026:

  • Holmes has cut back on his cutter usage, replacing it with more sliders and four-seamers to lefties and with his new sinker to righties.

• What to watch:

  • There is not a ton of experience versus Holmes on Philly’s roster - in 20 career ABs, there are only three total hits off of Holmes.

  • In Holmes’ only career start against Philly, he went four innings last April with no runs allowed on three hits, striking out six but with four walks.

Opposing Starter: RHP Andrew Painter (1-0, 3.77)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.77 ERA / 2.20 xERA / 1.52 FIP

• 26.2 K% / 4.9 BB% / 21.3% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (36%, 96.6 mph)

• Slider (19%, 88.5 mph)

• Sinker (14%, 95.0 mph)

• Curveball (13%, 81.0 mph)

• Splitter (10%, 87.5 mph)

• Sweeper (9%, 82.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters:

vs LHH: well-sequenced without notable tendencies

42% four-seamer, 23% slider, 18% curveball, 13% splitter, 2% sweeper, 1% sinker

vs RHH: well-sequenced without notable tendencies

34% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 20% sweeper, 13% slider, 4% splitter, 3% curveball

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• No Braves have seen Painter in his brief major league career, so there’s no preexisting at-bats to work off of. He’s also very well sequenced, so this will be down to pitch recognition and capitalizing on Painter’s mistakes in location.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• A lot of the middle relief - Joel Payamps, Aaron Bummer, Tyler Kinley - have had plenty of time off and might get into this one if the score permits.

Used recently:

• Both Dylan Lee and Robert Suarez pitched last night but were efficient enough that they can come back today, if needed.

Potential limitations:

• Raisel Iglesias was down yesterday due to sleeping wrong and waking up with shoulder soreness - I’ve never related more to a professional athlete.

Quick takeaway:

• Even if Iglesias is still unavailable today, Atlanta has all the pieces required to secure a sweep if needed.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Lefty Kyle Bachus should be back from Wednesday’s extended outing.

Used recently:

• Everyone? All of the arms in the pen other than Bachus have pitched in this series so far, so they’re all working off of a recent workload.

Potential limitations:

• Lefty Tanner Banks had extended workloads in the first two games of the series, so he should be down today.

Quick takeaway:

• Philly can likely send almost anyone to the mound in a win, but they’re all working on coming back from usage in this series.

What to Watch Today

• If Philly gets to the late game with a lead, who closes the game with Jhoan Duran on the IL?

• How well does Atlanta handle Andrew Painter without the ability to sit on any specific pitch? That being said, how does Painter fare against the top of the lineup? The first inning will tell us a lot.

Final Thought

The Phillies are favored on the moneyline today (FanDuel) in what projects to be a low-scoring game (O/U 8). Who strikes first, and who can hold the lead late? Give me Atlanta in their first sweep of the season.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

In retrospect, it was the top of the third inning.

Atlanta started quietly, with Jorge Mateo and Ronald Acuña Jr. both striking out to start the frame. But after Drake Baldwin rocketed a ground ball back up the middle to get Atlanta a baserunner, the guys behind him capitalized on some rare fortune from the baseball gods.

Ozzie Albies sent a weak dribbler back up the middle…but second baseman Edmundo Sosa, in the lineup over Bryson Stott due to Atlanta having a lefty on the mound, bobbled the ball as he tried to both scoop and step on second base for an error.

After that bit of fortune, the baseball gods were not done shining on the Braves. After Matt Olson walked to load the bases, Austin Riley had what amounted to a swinging bunt to the left side, with starter Cristopher Sánchez unable to make the play and allowing a run to score.

Mauricio Dubón then jumped on a 1-0 changeup, lifting a shallow fly ball to center that Brandon Marsh was unable to corral, leading to two more runs coming across the plate.

While I’ve not seen reporting from the Phillies beat here, my best guess is that Marsh pulled up because of the presence of Sosa running out to try and make the catch. If so, Sosa’s doubly responsible for Atlanta’s runs on Saturday.

Today’s Player of the Game

Receiving 96% of the vote from the viewers of the Braves Postcast, Chris Sale is the winner tonight.

Sale went seven innings, allowing just one run on five hits and one walk, striking out seven. The one run came on the very first pitch he threw to prospect Felix Reyes, who was called up today as a replacement for struggling utilityman Otto Lopez.

Sale struggled a bit early, picking up just four whiffs in the first two innings despite throwing 35 pitches. But he adjusted, ramping up his slider usage the 2nd and 3rd times through the order and introducing the changeup after the first time through. He finished with 14 whiffs and a 32% CSW.

The veteran’s ERA is now 2.79 after the victory and his four wins are one off the MLB lead, held by Angels flamethrower José Soriano.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Walt Weiss’s bullpen decisions in this one.

After Sale finished seven innings, leaving just two innings for the back-end of the bullpen to cover, Weiss zagged a bit. He sent out Dylan Lee for the eighth inning, which forced a right-handed pinch hitter for centerfielder Brandon Marsh.

That’s a bit of an odd decision, as Lee’s actually been better against righties than lefties in the last three seasons, but I’m guessing this is more about Marsh going 0-2 versus a lefty starter so they wanted to get him out of there before facing yet another lefty. Lee got a strikeout of pinch-hitter Dylan Moore before leadoff man Trea Turner lined out and Kyle Schwarber grounded out.

That left the 9th inning, and Weiss decided to give closer Raisel Iglesias the night off and called on Robert Suarez to finish this one off. The flamethrower did, hitting 101 on a strikeout of Bryce Harper en route to his first save of 2026.

We discussed this on the Postcast, and I’m assuming this was a matchup decision - Raisel Iglesias has struggled against Harper in his career, with the Phillies first baseman being six for twelve with four homers off of Atlanta’s closer.

By throwing Lee and Suarez tonight, Atlanta still has a closer available for Sunday night and can lock down a series sweep if the opportunity arises.

UPDATE: The Braves beat in Philly relayed after the game that Iglesias had some shoulder soreness after sleeping wrong and was unavailable tonight, but that they’re hopeful he’ll be back tomorrow.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the win/loss.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The finale is Atlanta’s second-consecutive week on NBC’s Sunday Night Baseball. Grant Holmes (1-1, 3.32) will take on prospect Andrew Painter (1-0, 3.77) at 7:20 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 67° with ‘intermittent clouds’, wind SE at 12 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Eli White
C Jonah Heim
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• After Eli White was able to check in late to both get a hit and play defense last night, they’re confident enough in his health to give him his first start since April 7th. Michael Harris II gets the day off, with Atlanta installing Mateo at shortstop, Dubón in left field, and White in center.

Philadelphia Phillies

SS Trea Turner (R)
DH Kyle Schwarber (L)
1B Bryce Harper (L)
RF Adolis Garcia (R)
C J.T. Realmuto (R)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
LF Felix Reyes (R)
2B Edmundo Sosa (R)
CF Brandon Marsh (L)

Quick thoughts:

• With the struggles of Otto Kemp in left field (just 2-20 and nine strikeouts, with both hits being singles) being bad enough that the team sent him down to Triple-A today, Felix Reyes makes his MLB debut today, batting seventh and playing left field.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Chris Sale (3-1, 3.27)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.27 ERA / 3.88 xERA / 4.75 FIP

• 24.7 K% / 6.7 BB% / 18% K-BB%

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 42% slider, 13% changeup, <1% sinker

  • vs LHH: 40% slider, 32% sinker, 28% four-seamer

• What’s changed in 2026:

  • Nothing significant. Sale’s slider usage has ticked down slightly to righties, from 46% to 42%, but it’s still a small enough sample size where this could be just a few pitches each game being different.

• What to watch:

  • There are a few Philly hitters with more than 10 at-bats and some success against Sale - Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are both 3-13.

    • As always, Kyle Schwarber’s the main threat here. He’s hitting .286 with two homers and four RBI off of Sale in 14 ABs.

  • The flipside here is that Bryce Harper’s just 2-9, J.T. Realmuto’s only 2-13, and Edmundo Sosa is 1-11 versus the southpaw.

  • In Sale’s last five starts against Philly, he’s 2-0 with a 3.54 ERA. He faced Philly three times last year and got roughed up in the first meeting - five runs on nine hits in 4.2 - but rebounded by allowing just one run on five hits across two six-inning starts while striking out seventeen.

Opposing Starter: LHP Cristopher Sánchez (2-1, 2.01)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.01 ERA / 2.90 xERA / 1.90 FIP

• 32.6 K% / 7.4 BB% / 25.3% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (94.7 mph, 49% usage)

• Changeup (86.1 mph, 32% usage)

• Slider (85.5 mph, 19% usage)

How he attacks hitters:

vs LHH: all sinkers (unless ahead early, then sliders)

64% sinker, 27% slider, 9% changeup

vs RHH: changeups when ahead, mostly even split when behind or late

45% sinker, 39% changeup, 16% slider

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Sánchez isn’t doing anything confusing or hard to handle; he’s just doing it extremely well. Everyone but Jonah Heim has seen him in their careers, and several of those Braves hitters have performed in those small samples - Austin Riley is 4-9, Matt Olson is 6-18 with two homers, Ozzie Albies is 6-12, and Drake Baldwin is 2-3.

• When searching Statcast for Atlanta’s performances against lefty changeups last year, some interesting names stand out in one extreme or the other. (All performance expressed as Run Value per 100 pitches, RV/100)

  • Good last year: Drake Baldwin (10.240), Eli White (1.097)

  • Close to neutral last year: Ronald Acuña Jr. (.228), Matt Olson (-.362)

  • Bad last year: Ozzie Albies (-3.741), Michael Harris II (-1.928), Austin Riley (-1.748)

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• All but one arm in the bullpen have had two days off.

Used recently/Potential limitations:

• José Suarez recorded Atlanta’s third three-inning save of the year last night, so he’ll be down for a few days.

Quick takeaway:

• Suarez covering the end of last night’s game (and Philly’s pen not being able to do that) gives Atlanta the bullpen edge for the rest of the series.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Setup man Brad Keller hasn’t pitched since Tuesday and is well rested. He’ll need to be, as closer Jhoan Duran was placed on the injured list ahead of today’s game with a left oblique strain.

Used recently:

• Their other setup man, however…Orion Kerkering entered last night’s game and took more than 20 pitches for his designated inning. Philly also needed 20 or more pitches from lefties Tim Mayza and Tanner Banks, so the only fresh lefty they have remaining is José Alvarado.

Potential limitations:

• Kyle Bachus, who threw 41 pitches on Wednesday, needs to be available for Philly so they have a second rested lefty behind Alvarado.

Quick takeaway:

• Philly very quickly went from almost fully rested to a perilous situation. If Sanchez can’t give them some length today, they’ll be running on fumes for Sunday night’s series finale.

What to Watch Today

• Can Philly get enough runs on Chris Sale where they can go to their leverage arms to lock up a win?

• If the game is vaguely close after the starters are out of it, does Philly match Atlanta’s aggressiveness and push the chips in for a win, knowing that their bullpen is already taxed a bit?

• Can Atlanta’s hitters hang runs on Sanchez early? He’s allowed 11 hits in the first two innings of his four starts (as compared to 13 hits in innings 3-6), but only two runs in the early frames.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored in a low-scoring game, per FanDuel, and I understand why. Give me Sale over Sanchez and Atlanta to win this one. Heads up that Fox has tonight’s game, not BravesVision, so enjoy Ben Ingram and the Atlanta Braves Radio Network.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Not one specific moment, but I’m going to go with the first few innings of Martín Pérez’s start.

Atlanta put up two runs in the top half of the first inning, but Philly was threatening to get it all back in the bottom half. After Kyle Schwarber was “hit” by a pitch, Bryce Harper singled and Adolis García drew a walk to load the bases with only one out. But Pérez buckled down, preserving the lead with a strikeout of Edmundo Sosa on six pitches where all but one of them looked to be enter-cut and ran away from Sosa. Other than one spiked curveball, Pérez located several sinkers and changeups on the black or just off the plate, eventually elevating a sinker after Sosa started looking away. J.T. Realmuto then flew out on an inside sinker to end the threat.

Philly threatened again in the 3rd, this time down 7-0. With only one out, they got runners on the corners thanks to a Bryce Harper triple and an Adolis García walk. Once again, though, Pérez buckled down against the same two batters, getting Sosa to pop out foul on a cutter that broke in on his hands before Realmuto again lined out to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski.

Today’s Player of the Game

On a night where the Braves put up twelve hits, including four home runs, the people voted for Austin Riley as player of the game.

It’s a very “boom or bust” statline, with Riley striking out three times but also hitting two homers in this one. With the caveat that two of the three strikeouts could have been overturned on ABS challenges, the home runs are worth discussing.

The first came in the 2nd inning off of embattled starter Taijuan Walker, with Riley identifying a hanging 2-1 cutter on the outer third and popping it out to right-center at 103 mph. That was the dagger, with Atlanta’s lead doubling from three runs to six.

But Riley got back after it against reliever Chase Shugart to lead off the 9th inning. It was another right-center shot, this one off a 2-2 fastball thigh high on the black outside.

My friend Jake Mastroianni of Locked On Braves talked about this last week, but you can tell when Riley is getting locked in at the plate by how often he’s hitting balls the other way and wearing out that right-center gap. The third baseman has three homers in the last two games and all of them have been to the opposite field, a sign that he’s about to go on an absolute heater.

What You’ll Be Talking About

As much as the offense was the catalyst to tonight’s win, a lot of the conversation in the Postcast live chat was about Martín Pérez.

He really struggled to command his sinker early, but switched to his cutter as the primary fastball and stabilized. Pérez used it just 5% the first time through the order, bur ramped it up to 29% the second time through and 38% the third time. While he ran out of gas late, with his sinker velocity dropping below 90 mph, it was more than enough on a night where Atlanta’s offense was humming. The veteran lefty went six scoreless innings, allowing just four hits and two walks while striking out four.

Pérez finished with just seven whiffs on his entire arsenal, but also picked up twenty called strikes, including eight on the cutter alone, to finish with a 29% CSW. Given the success this season, which has improved Pérez’s ERA to 2.21, it’s unlikely the Braves will designate him for assignment again.

Which might be good, given Perez’s comments about the maneuver from after the game. Talking to friend of the program Chad Bishop of the AJC, Pérez admitted that he was not that fond of how the series happened. “It was tough for me because I was not happy with the decision. But I’m a professional and talked to my agent and ... the best option was Atlanta. I don’t even know I’m gonna start tonight. They told me Wednesday. I clicked my mind and went, ‘OK time to go again.’”

Even with his $3.5M contract, two straight winning starts might mean that other teams would be willing to take on his money if he were put on waivers again.

Speaking of the pitching, it’s worth pointing out that José Suarez finished the game with three scoreless innings, securing the save. Of Atlanta’s seven saves, three of them have come after a bulk reliever has finished the final three innings of a contest.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the win/loss.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Atlanta Braves are looking to win the series on Saturday in what might be the best pitching matchup of Atlanta’s season so far. Chris Sale (3-1, 3.27) squares off with Christopher Sánchez (2-1, 2.01) at 7:15 PM ET on Fox.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET

• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 77° and partially cloudy, wind NNW at 9 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II

Quick thoughts:

• No changes from the standard lineup for Atlanta.

Philadelphia Phillies

SS Trea Turner (R)
DH Kyle Schwarber (L)
1B Bryce Harper (L)
RF Adolis Garcia (R)
2B Edmundo Sosa (R)
C J.T. Realmuto (R)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
CF Justin Crawford (L)
LF Otto Kemp (R)

Quick thoughts:

• I imagine that veteran Brandon Marsh will be substituting in for Otto Kemp as soon as Martín Pérez is out of the game.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Martín Pérez (0-1, 3.14 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.14 ERA / 3.84 xERA / 4.07 FIP

• 11.3 K% / 7.5 BB% / 1.9% HR rate

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 32% changeup, 30% cutter, 21% sinker, 11% curveball, 5% four-seam

  • vs LHH: 60% sinker, 28% changeup, 7% cutter, 5% curveball

• What’s changed in 2026:

  • Nothing, really. His cutter usage is slightly down (-5%), replaced by more four-seamers and curveballs, but he’s mostly the same pitcher he was in 2025.

What to watch:

• Know who was tied for 11th best hitter in all of baseball against sinkers last year at a +2.4 RV/100? Kyle Schwarber. The lefty hit .330 with a .648 slug and smashed seven homers off the pitch, so maybe don’t leave one of those up, yeah?

  • He was also Philly’s best hitter against changeups (+1.3RV/100), too, so…good luck?

• Alec Bohm is towards the bottom of the order, but it’s not because of a lack of success off of Pérez: He’s 8-17 with a homer in his career against the southpaw.

  • Trea Turner is hitting .357 with a homer in four RBI in just 14 at-bats, as well.

Opposing Starter: RHP Taijuan Walker (1-2, 7.36)

Quick snapshot:

• 7.36 ERA / 6.57 xERA / 6.51 FIP

• 16.9 K% / 9.9 BB% / 5.6% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Splitter (86.7 mph, 28% usage)

• Sinker (91.4 mph, 20% usage)

• Cutter (86.2 mph, 17% usage)

• Curveball (74.2 mph, 14% usage)

• Slider (81.2 mph, 12% usage)

• Four-seamer (91.5 mph, 9%)

How he attacks hitters:

vs LHH: splitters when ahead early, but fastballs when he NEEDS a strike

35% splitter, 18% curveball, 17% cutter, 14% sinker, 11% four-seamer, 5% slider

vs RHH: please sir, can I have a groundball?

33% sinker, 26% slider, 16% cutter, 11% splitter, 7% curveball, 6% four-seamer

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Several Braves regulars are…okay against Walker in their careers over 10+ ABs: Ronald Acuña Jr. is hitting .250, while Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson are at .231 and none of them have a homer.

  • Austin Riley, however, has 15 career ABs with five hits, including a homer.

• Braves who hit splitters well last year include Austin Riley (6.7 RV/100) and Matt Olson (2.3 RV/100), while Ronald Acuña Jr.(-1.7 RV/100), Michael Harris II (-1.4), Ozzie Albies (-0.9), and Drkae Baldwin (-0.8) all struggled.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Ian Hamilton, who was added to the roster prior to the road trip, hasn’t thrown since last Saturday.

Used recently:

• Atlanta threw the leverage arms on Wednesday, but none of them had workloads that would prevent them from pitching today.

Potential limitations:

• None

Quick takeaway:

• With an off day on Thursday, the bullpen’s been essentially reset for manager Walt Weiss.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Jhoan Duran hasn’t pitched since Saturday and setup men Brad Keller (Tuesday) and Orion Kerkering (Monday) are well rested, as well.

Used recently:

• Jose Alvarado threw 11 pitches on Wednesday, but with an off day on Thursday, he’s good to go.

Potential limitations:

• Kyle Bachus will be down today, as he still needs a day from Wednesday’s bulk role.

Quick takeaway:

• Other than their long man, Philly is fully rested and ready for the series.

What to Watch Today

• If there’s any game in this series that projects to be high-scoring, it’s this one. Just feels like a bad matchup for both pitchers. While the Braves are favored (FanDuel), this one could honestly go either way.

• The bullpen feels extra important tonight, given the abbreviated nature of some of Pérez’s outings. If he gets in trouble early, Walt Weiss has shown that he has a quick hook and isn’t afraid to mix and match with the bullpen the rest of the way.

Final Thought

Enjoy this one, because it’s the only game of the series that is being broadcast on BravesVision. Fox on Saturday and another Peacock game on Sunday.

What if the Braves had an option in-house? One that could be ready for the majors sooner than prospects John Gil or Alex Lodise, both of whom are in the lower minors to start 2026.

Let’s talk about Jim Jarvis.

Modest beginnings

Jarvis wasn’t originally an Atlanta draft pick. A standout, ABCA/Rawlings Gold Glove-winning defender at the University of Alabama, he was taken in the 11th-round of the 2023 draft by the Detroit Tigers. He had only modest success for Detroit before being dealt last fall, hitting just .244 with eight homers and not advancing past Double-A.

But the Braves saw something in the former Crimson Tide shortstop, requesting that he be the return for reliever Rafael Montero at last season’s trade deadline.

Or more accurately, they saw what he could become, because Atlanta immediately began implementing changes. Injuries seemed to get in the way, with Jarvis’s season ending early after being hit in the face by a pitch on August 28th. The timing mayve have helped, however, because it gave Jarvis an early start on the swing changes.

“After I got injured, I went down to Florida, had some good conversations with them, and then I’m just trying to work on stuff now,” he told MLB.com while in the Arizona Fall League. “It's kind of positioning stuff and just like the way I'm setting up, trying to be in less of a steep angle.”

Watching Jarvis at Alabama as compared to this season, it’s easy to see his transformation.

Here’s Jarvis singling against Nicholls in the 2023 regionals, flashing an uppercut swing.

This swing wasn’t bad, per se - Jarvis struck out just 12.7% of the time in his final season for the Crimson Tide, but draft profiles of Jarvis classified him as a “bit of a slap hitter” due to his below-average raw power. It was a swing geared for maximum damage in the air, but without the requisite base of power to match.

Atlanta’s overhaul flattened out the swing, choosing to prioritize gap power and line drives instead of selling out for the fences.

Here’s a shot of Jarvis singling on Wednesday versus Memphis and top Cardinals pitching prospect Tink Hence:

It’s a much flatter swing with the hands closer in to the body, one that has resulted in an increase in slugging due to line drive-derived extra base hits. In Double-A Erie with the Tigers last year, Jarvis slugged just .336 with 19 extra-base hits in 310 plate appearances. But in his 20 games in Triple-A, Jarvis is slugging .573, with eight extra-base hits (including three homers) in just 87 plate appearances entering Thursday’s action. His .394 batting average is third in the International League, while his 188 wRC+ is fourth.

And that swing change hasn’t resulted in significantly more swing and miss, with Jarvis logging a 94th percentile 14.2% whiff rate in 2026 and a 15.8% strikeout rate. The underlying power still looks below average, with Jarvis putting up an EV90 of just 100.2mph, 30th percentile in baseball per Prospect Savant. The success of the swing change just reinforces that shooting for massive power totals isn’t his game.

SIDEBAR: “EV90” refers to a player’s 90th percentile exit velocity — the threshold where only the hardest-hit 10% of their batted balls exceed that number. It’s a more reliable measure of power than max exit velocity, which can be inflated by one perfectly squared-up swing. In my experience, EV90 better reflects how often a hitter produces consistent impact contact, giving a much clearer picture of real power. MLB average EV90 is roughly 104 mph.

Instead, selectivity and quality zone contact are the hallmarks of Jarvis’ offensive game. Even without an elite walk rate, sitting at just 11.8% (slightly above average for Triple-A), Jarvis holds a zone contact rate of 91.36%, one of the best marks at the level. He accomplishes this through excellent discipline, posting one of the lowest overall swing rates (41.91%) and zone-swing rates (59.12%) in all of Triple-A.

Going through the small sample size of his performance against various pitch types in 2026, Jarvis has shown the ability to consistently handle fastballs, hitting .500 with a miniscule 1.9% whiff rate on four-seamers. Offspeed pitches, however, appear to be a concern for Jarvis, with the lefty hitter whiffing 39.1% of the time off of changeups during his time in AAA.

The question that will determine whether he is a starter or a utility piece is where the power ultimately settles. Can he maintain a 10-homer profile in the majors? 23 shortstops hit that mark in 2025, with only eight players logging more than 100 games but not getting at least ten homers. 1

Baseball America isn’t as high on his slugging, writing in this year’s scouting report that his offensive value will be “driven almost entirely” by his ability to make contact, owing to “well below-average power”. Projecting him at #28 in Atlanta’s system entering the year, they argue that the lack of power will “cap Jarvis’ upside” but that he can “have value in a utility infield role.”

Can he be a utility man?

If Jarvis can’t maintain the power production and does fall back to be a multi-position backup, he at least has the experience to be successful. Jarvis has the most time at shortstop in his post-prep career, logging 1,483.2 innings at the position, but has also covered second base (382.1 innings) and third base (451.0 innings) through both college and the minors.

Defense is one of the hardest things to evaluate without a massive sample size, but in the innings I’ve seen, Jarvis appeared to be a reliable, steady defender at shortstop with both decent enough range and the requisite arm strength to stick at the position in the majors. While I don’t think he’ll win a Gold Glove, he won’t be a liability there, either. His natural reactions make him an above-average defender on the left side of the infield.

He hasn’t logged outfield innings in college, the Cape Cod Summer League, or in the minors. His baseball instincts and knowledge would likely help with this transition, however, if the Braves were to pursue it.

Jarvis is also improving as a baserunner. After going just 14-19 on stolen base attempts last season, the shortstop is already 12-0 for the Stripers in 2026. He’s reportedly been clocked at 6.60 seconds in the 60-yard dash, which would translate to roughly 88th percentile speed of 27.28 ft/sec in the majors.

That speed applied to Atlanta’s 2026 roster would tie him for fourth-fastest player with Ozzie Albies, behind only Eli White (30.3 ft/sec), Jorge Mateo (29.6 ft/sec), and Michael Harris (27.6 ft/sec).

Can he force the issue?

For a team that’s spent years building a roster around stars, the next solution might be a little quieter.

Jarvis doesn’t have to hit 25 home runs. He doesn’t need to. If he controls the zone, sprays line drives, plays steady defense, and adds value on the bases, he fits. And if the power settles just high enough to keep pitchers honest, he fits even better.

That’s the bet Atlanta is making.

And if they’re right, the answer at shortstop might not be a free agent signing or a headline trade.

It might be a former 11th-round pick who quietly rebuilt his swing and played his way into the conversation.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Top of the 6th inning.

Bryce Elder came into the inning red hot - he had allowed just three hits and no runs to that point of the game, with the Braves leading 2-0. But Otto Lopez got a line drive single to center on an elevated slider to open the inning, and Elder had traffic to work through.

He responded by doing what he does best: getting groundballs.

Elder erased Lopez by getting catcher Liam Hicks to beat a slider into the ground for a force out at second base. He then erased Hicks with a sinker that righty Connor Norby pulled to third base, with Austin Riley throwing to second to get the lead runner. But with slugger Owen Caissie coming up, Walt Weiss didn’t want to risk it. He came out and got Elder, explaining after the game that he would have let Elder work out of the jam if not for the game situation. “I just felt like, if it wasn’t the tying run (at the plate), I wouldn’t have done it. Caissie’s a dangerous hitter.”

To Weiss’ point, in the previous at-bat by Caissie, he hit a 109.1 mph rocket to right-center that tied up Michael Harris II for a moment before he made the catch.

It wasn’t just the threat of Caissie in that spot that made Weiss pull Elder, however. He admitted that going to Lee at that exact time was also a bit of gamesmanship on his part, as well, trying to cement an advantage for his team in the late innings. “Also, I figured they’d pinch hit there, and then you’d get a right-handed run for the back of our bullpen.”

Weiss was right. Austin Slater came in to pinch-hit for Caissie and that same string of hitters came to bat in the 8th inning, although Osvaldo Bido couldn’t take advantage of the right-on-right matchup.

Back to the 6th, though: Lee walked Slater, although he then froze Heriberto Hernández with an elevated slider - I don’t think that was the target, but the miss worked in his favor because Hernández clearly was looking down in the zone - to get out of the jam and preserve Elder’s line.

Today’s Player of the Game

Bryce Elder.

Elder was one out shy of a quality start, allowing no runs and only four hits across 5.2 innings, striking out seven with two walks. The slider was the star of tonight’s show, with Elder picking up nine whiffs on it plus four additional called strikes. Across seventeen swings on the slider, just six were put into play, and only two were hard-hit - the only hard-hit balls allowed by the sinkerballer in the entire outing.

Elder was manipulating the velocity a bit on the slider tonight, picking up some horizontal sweep at times in exchange for a few ticks of velocity. Here’s his standard slider, thrown to Heriberto Hernández at 84.5 mph but with the standard gyroslider vertical break.

And here’s the other, laterally-moving version he broke out at times, punching out Otto Lopez at 83 mph.

Filthy.

I’d argue that this was one of the best versions of Elder that we’ve seen in Atlanta. While we’re in no way saying he is now a mid-rotation starter, it’s clear that he’s a different pitcher since both his biomechanical work over the offseason and his time spent with Greg Maddux.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Atlanta’s offense.

Eight of Atlanta’s nine starters had hits tonight as part of an 11-hit effort. Michael Harris II, the lone starter to not record an official hit, still reached via force out and stole a base, although Atlanta wasn’t able to bring him around to score.

Three Braves had home runs tonight, with Ozzie Albies (4) taking Marlins starter Chris Paddack deep and both Matt Olson (5) and Austin Riley (his first!) doing it off of the Miami bullpen. Those insurance runs were crucial, as Miami got three runs in the top of the 8th off of longman Osvaldo Bido to force a save situation and Atlanta’s use of the high-leverage relievers.

Amazingly, not only did every Braves starter have a hard-hit ball (95 mph or harder) tonight, all but two of them had multiple hard-hit balls. Atlanta finished with eighteen, including three each by Riley (2-4, HR, 2B) and Olson (1-4, 2R HR).

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the win/loss.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are heading to Philly tonight for an off day tomorrow before Friday’s opener versus the Phillies. Manager Walt Weiss confirmed after the game that Atlanta’s starter for game one will be Martín Pérez (0-1, 3.14), who is set to take on Taijuan Walker (1-2, 7.36) at 6:40 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind SW at 8 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
DH Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
CF Michael Harris II

Quick thoughts:

• Slight reshuffling of the deck chairs here - Albies leaps over Yastrzemski to take the #5 spot, while Dubón and Harris flip-flop the final two spots in the order.

  • This is a new batting order, the 11th different one of the season.

Miami Marlins

CF Jakob Marsee (L)
2B Xavier Edwards (S)
SS Otto Lopez (R)
C Liam Hicks (L)
DH Connor Norby (R)
RF Owen Caissie (L)
LF Heriberto Hernández (R)
3B Graham Pauley (L)
1B Deyvison De Los Santos (R)

Quick thoughts:

• Catcher Agustín Ramírez gets the night off, with Liam Hicks behind the plate and Deyvison De Los Santos getting the start at first base.

• This lineup has combined for 27 at-bats off of Bryce Elder, with one homer (Hernández) and six RBI combined.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Bryce Elder (1-1, 1.02)

Quick snapshot:

• 1.02 ERA / 2.35 xERA / 2.93 FIP

• 23.5 K% / 7.4 BB% / 1.5% HR rate

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 48% sinker, 41% slider, 7% four-seamer, 4% changeup

  • vs LHH: 36% slider, 19% four-seamer, 18% cutter, 17% changeup, 10% sinker

• What’s changed in 2026:

  • The cutter is new, but it’s still only being utilized against lefties.

What to watch:

• As always, for Elder, his whole thing is location-dependent. If he’s keeping the slider down and getting ground balls from it and his sinker, it’ll be a good day. If he’s either letting his locations drift up into the heart of the zone or he’s missing the strike zone completely and walking guys, the pen has to be ready.

Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Paddack (0-2, 6.14)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.68 ERA / 4.30 xERA / 5.13 FIP

• 20.6 K% / 7.4 BB% / 4.4% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Four-seam fastball (92.8 mph, 28% usage)

• Changeup (85.1 mph, 24% usage)

• Cutter (86.3 mph, 15% usage)

• Sweeper (79.9 mph, 13% usage)

• Curveball (77.1 mph, 12% usage)

• Sinker (92.8 mph, 8%)

How he attacks hitters:

vs LHH: mostly full mix, changeups for chase when ahead

34% four-seamer, 29% changeup, 16% curveball, 13% cutter, 5% sinker, 4% sweeper

vs RHH: here’s the kitchen sink, good luck

25% sweeper, 20% four-seamer, 18% changeup, 17% cutter, 13% sinker, 6% curveball

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Similar to last night, it’s another well-sequenced pitcher (thanks to calling pitches from the dugout) with underwhelming stuff. Nothing of Paddack’s reaches even average marks on the FanGraphs Stuff+ model, but they all tunnel well, he has pretty good locations and can sequence well enough to elicit above-average chase.

• Lefties feel like they have it easier, as they can mostly focus on three pitches (4S, CB, CH) versus righties, who could get any one of five pitches with some curveballs sprinkled in for good measure.

• Watch Mike Yastrzemski tonight. He’s started to heat up at the plate (hits in three straight games) and is an absurd .391 with three homers and four RBI off of Paddack in just 23 career ABs.

  • Dom Smith is just 1-9 off of Paddack, but that one hit was a home run.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Osvaldo Bido should be back and available as the long-man after three days off.

Used recently:

• The trio of leverage arms all pitched last night and should all be able to come back tonight if needed, although staying away from Robert Suarez wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if possible.

Potential limitations:

• José Suarez likely needs one more day, given his 34-pitch workload on Monday

Quick takeaway:

• With an off day on Thursday, Walt Weiss has all the levers that might need pulling to secure a series win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Tyler Phillips should be available, as he’s had the same rest as the last time he threw 37 pitches.

Used recently:

• Closer Pete Fairbanks got himself into a pickle in last night’s 8th inning and needed 26 pitches to get out of it. I’m sure they’ll call on him if needed to try and secure a series win, but I’d have him down today. Closers have different rules, though.

Potential limitations:

• Lake Bachar likely needs one more day before he’ll be called on for long relief, but that’s okay since Phillips is available.

Quick takeaway:

• Miami would likely love a strong start from Chris Paddack, but they can survive a five-and-dive if needed. Any earlier than that, though, and they won’t have very many leverage options if it’s close.

What to Watch Today

• It’s honestly not a great matchup for Elder - Miami’s a high-contact team that has enough pop to punish a hanging breaking ball and has a good running game.

• The Braves haven’t done well with ‘kitchen sink’ guys that are well sequenced/optimized, and that’s without the dugout’s assistance through calling plays. Let’s hope that, similar to last night, Paddack leaves enough mistakes in the zone for Atlanta to make hard contact.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored to win, and that’s likely a reflection of the ceiling and floor of Elder vs Paddack. Give me Atlanta, provided we get the good version of Elder or we get the offense to make up for the bad version.

Heading into Tuesday’s game, Atlanta’s pitchers had one of the lowest ERAs in baseball (2.86) despite some middling peripherals that suggested regression was coming - a strikeout rate of just 21.8% (19th in baseball) and an unsustainably low .250 Batting Average on Balls In Play (29th in MLB).

And just like Monday night’s 10-4 loss, when every Braves pitcher allowed a run, Tuesday followed a similar script — an early unraveling from the starter, although he was able to stabilize as the outing went on and keep Atlanta in the game long enough for Dom Smith to play the hero in the 8th inning.

So what’s actually going on, and can the offense pick up the slack? Let’s talk about it.

Read more

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The bottom of the 8th.

Atlanta was on their heels from the jump, down 1-0 after the first inning, 4-0 before they came up to bat in the second inning, and 5-3 when they came up to bat in the bottom of the eighth.

With Drake Baldwin leading off for Atlanta, Marlins manager Clayton McCullough sent closer Pete Fairbanks out to try and secure the win. We don’t know if Fairbanks would have gone for the six-out save, but it didn’t matter in the end.

Baldwin opened with a leadoff single, shooting a 0-1 fastball that was down and in to the opposite field. After two quick outs, coming from a Matt Olson strikeout and an Austin Riley pop fly, Mike Yastrzemski kept the rally alive with a single on a 1-1 elevated fastball. Ozzie Albies then wore a 2-1 cutter to load the bases for the hero of the night, Dom Smith.

Even then, it almost didn’t happen - Smith quickly went down 0-2 and started fouling everything off remotely near the zone. And then Fairbanks grooved a 87 mph cutter, middle-middle, on a platter.

And Smith didn’t miss it.

(What about that call from Brandon Gaudin? Just fantastic.)

All three runners came in to score, staking Atlanta to a 6-5 lead that Raisel Iglesias would not relinquish in the top of the 9th.

It’s an impressive piece of hitting - sending that pitch to the opposite field and splitting the outfielders - nevermind getting there in the first place after being down 0-2 and fouling off multiple other close pitches just to get to a mistake pitch and take advantage.

Walt Weiss played a hand in this, as well. After Smith singled to lead off the 7th inning, Atlanta’s manager declined to pinch-run for Smith, leaving him on first instead of sending out the speedster Jorge Mateo. That proved prescient, as Mateo would have been the one to come around and take the pivotal at-bat in the 8th.

Today’s Player of the Game

Believe it or not, it’s Dom Smith. He’s already responsible for Atlanta’s two biggest hits/moments of the season, between this and his walk off grand slam in the season’s opening weekend. He’s more than earned his $1.25M salary for this season, no matter what happens from this point forward, but his story in Atlanta is far from over.

Smith’s still shown the chase issues that have plagued him for his career, but he’s also currently posting career best marks in whiff rate (17.3%) and average exit velocity (90.7 mph), reinforcing Statcast’s assertion that his exemplary performance early this season is almost entirely earned.

Smith’s postgame interview on BravesVision was incredibly rewarding, as well.

It’s clear that not only does Smith enjoy being in Atlanta and genuinely like being a member of this roster, but that it’s a mutual admiration society in the clubhouse and he’s loved just as much as he’s giving.

These are the types of moments that we look back at after a team wins the World Series and identify as the one that changed the trajectory of the club.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Reynaldo López.

Atlanta’s current #2 starter wasn’t his usual self early, allowing four runs in the first two frames of this one. The first inning’s run was a typical “small ball” manufactured run, with a single, a throwing error, and a sacrifice fly bringing in Miami’s first run.

But the second inning was a nightmare scenario for López, with a leadoff walk begetting three stolen bases, three singles, another double, and three total runs on the board. López needed 33 pitches to get out of the 2nd, putting him at 52 after the first two innings, and there was open speculation on the broadcast if he’d be able to come back or if his day would be over despite Atlanta not having a long man available out of the pen.

López instead stabilized things, facing just one batter over the minimum to finish five innings with what ended up being a no-decision. Part of the issue tonight was his inability to miss bats, getting just five whiffs on 31 swings and only one on his slider. His locations were okay, commonly grouping just off the edge of the plate, but Miami wasn’t prone to chasing and was making solid contact on the occasions they did. He finally adjusted by going to the curveball, ending up with three whiffs on four swings and three additional called strikes on the breaker.

After the three earned runs in five innings tonight, López’s ERA on the season is now 2.18.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the comeback win.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Atlanta’s looking to take the series over Miami tomorrow night in the finale. Bryce Elder (1-1, 1.02 ERA) gets the ball for the Braves, while the Marlins are sending offseason free agent signing Chris Paddack (0-2, 6.14 ERA) to the Truist Park mound.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

• Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind SW at 8 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón

Quick thoughts:

• Fresh off of getting an RBI single and stealing a base last night, Yastrzemski maintains his new 5th spot in the order. No changes here for Atlanta.

Miami Marlins

CF Jakob Marsee (L)
2B Xavier Edwards (S)
C Agustín Ramírez (R)
1B Liam Hicks (L)
SS Otto Lopez (R)
RF Owen Caissie (L)
DH Connor Norby (R)
LF Javier Sanoja (R)
3B Graham Pauley (L)

Quick thoughts:

• Ramírez moves behind the plate, while last night’s catcher Hicks moves to first base. Atlanta’s runners need to be prepared for passed balls, as Ramírez is not a very good defensive catcher. He finished 2025 with -28 Run Value on Blocks Above Average and -10 at Caught Stealing Above Average, both 1st percentile marks.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Reynaldo López (1-0, 1.15 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 1.15 ERA / 3.72 xERA / 5.17 FIP

• 20.6 K% / 7.9 BB% / 4.8% HR rate

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 59% four-seamer, 34% slider, 7% curveball

  • vs LHH: 45% four-seamer, 34% slider, 13% curveball, 8% changeup

• What’s changed in 2026:

  • Not much of anything, except for the fact he hasn’t thrown a changeup to a righty yet.

What to watch:

• López is trending towards the lowest hard-hit rate of his starting career at 34.9%. Is this a small sample size, a function of the teams he’s faced, or something sticky in the way he’s able to keep barrels off the ball?

Opposing Starter: RHP Max Meyer (1-0, 3.68)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.68 ERA / 5.42 xERA / 4.55 FIP

• 22.4 K% / 11.9 BB% / 3.0% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Slider (90.4 mph, 31% usage)

• Sweeper (88.0 mph, 22% usage)

• Four-seam fastball (94.8 mph, 21% usage)

• Changeup (88.5 mph, 14% usage)

• Sinker (94.2 mph, 12% usage)

How he attacks hitters:

vs LHH: full mix early, breaking balls late

31% slider, 26% four-seamer, 21% changeup, 18% sweeper, 4% sinker

vs RHH: here’s a breaking ball, try and hit it

31% slider, 26% sweeper, 21% sinker, 15% four-seamer, 7% changeup

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Max Meyer’s raw stuff isn’t that impressive - an aggregate 95 Stuff+ on FanGraphs and with only one pitch (sinker, 104) coming in as above-average - but he can locate it well.

• Miami’s dugout calls the pitches, not the battery, and so he’s not that predictable as far as sequences. You’ve got to get him off his spots, either by hitting pitches in a certain location to take it away from him (the up and in four-seamer, for instance) or not chase and force him to bring his stuff into the zone for strikes.

• Austin Riley is 3-7 with a homer off of Meyer, while Matt Olson only has one hit in nine at-bats…but that one hit is a homer.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The best two leverage arms still haven’t pitched since Tuesday, so long that they’ve fallen off of the five-day chart. Beginning to feel like Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez might never pitch again.

Used recently:

• Aaron Bummer and José Suarez, both of who pitched last night, are likely down for the day.

Potential limitations:

• Osvaldo Bido might need one more day after 50 pitches on Saturday and 64 in the last four days.

Quick takeaway:

• Let’s hope it’s close and we can use the two leverage guys, before they forget how to pitch.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Pete Fairbanks, who returned from his own paternity leave right before the weekend, hasn’t pitched since returning and has also fallen off the chart, just as Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez did for Atlanta.

Used recently:

• The chart’s always going to be a bit ugly after five different bullpen arms get into the same game, and Miami’s certainly is.

Potential limitations:

• That said, likely the only reliever from last night that can’t come back today is Lake Bachar. Everyone else is likely on the table, although I’m sure there are decision trees and rules on when some of them can get used.

Quick takeaway:

• Miami needs length from Meyer and that’s, uh, not really his thing. He has yet to get past the fifth inning in any of his three starts this year and hasn’t even thrown a pitch in the sixth inning since May of last year.

What to Watch Today

• No Marlins hitter has ever seen Reynaldo López, and they don’t even have the benefit of a Trajekt machine on the road to help prepare.

• The Braves haven’t done well with ‘kitchen sink’ guys that are well sequenced/optimized. Can Atlanta figure out what to do against Max Meyer?

Final Thought

Braves should have the pitching advantage in this one in the micro sense - if there’s a runner on third and two outs, who do I trust more to get a single out? That’s López. At the same time, we saw both teams’ pitching fall apart last night and Atlanta’s bats couldn’t keep up with Miami’s. Atlanta needs a complete win to take this one.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

I’m going to go with the bottom of the 5th here.

With Miami holding a 6-3 lead (more on how they got there in a moment), Atlanta was looking to tie it up for the second straight inning and started off well - Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a leadoff single and Drake Baldwin drew a walk to give Matt Olson two on and no outs.

But the Marlins went away from starter Eury Pérez, taking the lefty out and replacing him with reliever Andrew Nardi, and the contrast from the flamethrowing righty Pérez to the low-90s lefty Nardi was too much for Atlanta to handle. After Matt Olson struck out, both runners advanced into scoring position on a passed ball by catcher Liam Hicks but Atlanta could only get one home, that coming via groundout to the right side.

The Marlins went on to score three more runs in the top of the sixth to put this one away, adding another insurance run in the 8th for an easy win.

Today’s Player of the Game

Some may balk at the idea of a player of the game in a loss, but we’re still doing it. The Postcast audience voted and the winner was Matt Olson.

Olson went 2-5 tonight, one of just two Braves hitters to collect more than one knock in a nine-hit night for Atlanta. He waited out Pérez in the fourth inning, getting up 3-0 and then ambushing the first pitch he saw in the strike zone for a single, eventually coming around to score on a Mike Yastrzemski single two batters later. He then picked up his second hit in the 9th on a 108.3 mph ground ball to center, although was thrown out at second as part of a game-ending double play in the very next at-bat.

Even the POTG had his struggles tonight, though. The strikeout I referenced in the bottom of the 5th was a strikeout looking on a center-cut slider.

What You’ll Be Talking About

It was not Atlanta’s night on the mound.

Grant Holmes was cruising for the first three innings of the game, perfect with two strikeouts and a surprising six groundouts…before completely falling apart in the fourth. After he lost the perfect game on a single to the leadoff batter, he then walked back-to-back batters to load the bases with no outs. Miami brought all three runners in, one via a sacrifice fly and two more via single. Holmes eventually got out of the fourth thanks to a flyout and a strikeout, but wouldn’t return for the 5th inning after throwing 30 pitches in his final frame. He had 10 whiffs (nine on the slider) and a 25% CSW, but the walks, as walks are wont to do, doomed him in the fourth.

Aaron Bummer relieved Holmes and immediately had some trouble of his own, inducing a groundball to start the inning that made it through the Braves defense to put a runner on. From there, another groundball single put two on for slugger Agustín Ramírez, who deposited the second of back-to-back in-zone curveballs into the left-center seats to push Miami’s lead back to three runs.

Prospect Rolddy Muñoz, called up on Monday to give the pen another long man, promptly gave up a solo homer on the first pitch he threw of the sixth inning. Muñoz would then give up a single, with that runner coming all the way around to score after a steal, a flyout, and a 67 mph single that died in the infield grass short of third base. A third run came around to score on a ground ball that deflected off Muñoz and died at Ozzie Albies’ glove. Even José Suarez, who came in to pitch the final two innings in what became a blowout was tagged for a run on four hits.

It was a classic “two things can be true at once” loss here - yeah, Atlanta’s pitchers got BABIP’d to death at times, but they also didn’t help themselves. Holmes lost his command in the 4th, while Bummer’s diminished stuff (he averaged just 90.4 mph on his fastball tonight) and Muñoz’s misses coming back over the plate meant they gave Miami too many pitches to hit.

I’m also beginning to wonder about the state of Atlanta’s left-handed relievers. After Dylan Lee, who remains solid and reliable, it feels like Bummer can’t be trusted in any sort of leverage situation and Dylan Dodd’s ability to handle those higher leverage moments is also an unknown. Barring either bummer regaining both his velocity and the coaching staff’s trust or the emergence of someone from Atlanta’s farm system, the Braves might be looking for a left-handed reliever at this year’s trade deadline.

What You’ll Be Talking About, Part 2

Atlanta finally executed the Antoan Richardson timing-based steal tonight. In that fourth inning, both Austin Riley and Mike Yastrzemski stole second base. The caveat here is that there was a runner on third both times, so the defense wasn’t necessarily selling out to prevent the stolen base, but it still happened.

Riley’s steal was more of a standard steal, but Yastrzemski got the early jump and made the steal into an entirely non-competitive affair.

Here’s a middle-home shot of Eury Pérez releasing the ball as Yastrzemski is already three-fourths of the way to second base, having been in the frame for most of Perez’s pitching motion:

And here’s the high home camera, where you can see Yastrzemski start to get his secondary lead and then just…continue on to second, relying on the tell of Perez that Richardson identified to make it without a throw.

I’m personally excited for the Braves to integrate this more into their offense. In this inning, it was a huge help in eliminating the double play both times - in one of the two at-bats in which the steal was done, a ground ball was hit to the right side that potentially could have resulted in an inning-ending double play.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the win/loss.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves will attempt to tie the series back up on Tuesday night, sending Reynaldo López (1-0, 1.15) to the mound opposite Marlins righty Max Meyer (1-0, 3.86). First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM on BravesVision.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 82° and mostly sunny, wind SSW at 7 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón

Quick thoughts:

• With the return of Harris from the paternity list, Dubón returns to the infield and is batting 9th.

Miami Marlins

CF Jakob Marsee (L)
2B Xavier Edwards (S)
DH Agustín Ramírez (R)
C Liam Hicks (L)
SS Otto Lopez (R)
RF Owen Caissie (L)
1B Connor Norby
LF Heriberto Hernández (R)
3B Graham Pauley (L)

Quick thoughts:

• This roster has combined for exactly three hits off of Grant Holmes - one each by Hicks and Lopez (two ABs each) and one in seven tries by Edwards. Norby and Ramírez are a combined 0-7 off the right-hander.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Grant Holmes (1-1, 2.55 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.55 ERA / 3.20 xERA / 4.39 FIP

• 19.7 K% / 11.3 BB% / 2.8% HR rate

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 45% slider, 41% four-seamer, 8% sinker, 5% curveball, 1% cutter

  • vs LHH: 43% four-seamer, 33% slider, 13% curveball, 8% changeup, 2% cutter, 1% sinker

• What’s changed in 2026:

  • Significantly less cutters (-13%), less curveballs (-6%), more 4S (+9%)

What to watch:

• Holmes struggles with walks as a starter, sitting on a career 2.46 SO/W as opposed to a 5.33 SO/W in relief. Can he avoid the free passes to a Miami team with a good running game?

• Atlanta’s defense has 49 double plays in its 16 games. Only one of them was induced by Holmes, partially because he has an 18th percentile groundball rate of 32.7%. Can he get more weak contact on the ground?

Opposing Starter: RHP Eury Pérez (1-1, 5.06)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.06 ERA / 4.98 xERA / 6.21 FIP

• 25.4 K% / 12.7 BB% / 5.6% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Pitch 1 = four-seam fastball (98.3 mph, 48% usage)

• Pitch 2 = slider (87.0 mph, 15% usage)

• Pitch 3 = sweeper (83.9 mph, 15% usage)

• Pitch 4 = changeup (89.2 mph, 11% usage)

• Pitch 5 = curveball (81.5 mph, 7% usage)

• Pitch 6 = cutter (84.9 mph, 3% usage)

vs LHH: the mix early and when ahead, heaters late and when behind

51% four-seamer 13% slider, 13% changeup, 11% sweeper, 10% curveball, 2% cutter

vs RHH: breaking stuff early and when ahead, heaters late and when behind

45% four-seamer, 21% sweeper, 19% slider, 7% changeup, 5% cutter, 3% curveball

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Don’t relax because of the ERA - the “Baby Goat” has the best stuff in baseball, as measured by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model, with a 118 Stuff+ that tops even Chris Sale’s 115.

  • That said, his 88 Location score is tied for second-worst in the sport, ahead of only (now injured) Joe Boyle of the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s worth pointing out, though, that Boyle’s first start of 2025 was against Atlanta in Tampa, where he allowed no earned runs or hits across five innings while walking two and striking out seven.

• Both Atlanta and Truist Park have been nightmares for Pérez, with the youngster having a 17.47 ERA in Atlanta’s home ballpark across two outings and a 12.19 ERA against the Braves in three career starts. Both marks are the worst for Pérez in his career against any one opponent or in any one venue where he’s made more than one start.

  • Drake Baldwin is 2-4 with two homers and four RBI off of Pérez in their respective careers, while Ronald Acuña Jr. is 2-3 with a homer and Ozzie Albies is 2-5 with a homer.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The best two leverage arms haven’t pitched since Tuesday, so long that they’ve fallen off of the five-day chart.

Used recently:

• Dylan Dodd covered the final three innings last night and ate an option back to Gwinnett for his trouble, so everyone else got the night off.

Potential limitations:

• Osvaldo Bido, who threw 50 pitches on Saturday, projects to be the only reliever unavailable tonight.

Quick takeaway:

• All the bullpen levers are there for Walt Weiss to pull if needed to secure a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Pete Fairbanks, who returned from his own paternity leave right before the weekend, hasn’t pitched since returning and has also fallen off the chart, just as Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez did for Atlanta.

Used recently:

• Neither John King or Anthony Bender, who pitched on Saturday, should be unavailable today.

Potential limitations:

• Tyler Phillips, who threw 37 pitches last night, should be down for today.

Quick takeaway:

• There are two lefties (Andrew Nardi and John King) as well as a well-rested closer and all the setup arms for Miami to work with tonight.

What to Watch Today

• How quickly does Michael Harris II get his dad strength?

• The last high-octane arm the Braves faced, breakout Angels starter José Soriano, tore through Atlanta’s lineup like a tornado through a trailer park. Can they catch up to Eury’s fastball?

  • Speaking of Eury, can he throw enough pitches in the zone to avoid walks and not allow one bad pitch to be launched into the seats for two or three runs?

Final Thought

Braves are favored in this one, and I think that’s the right call. This offense has been too good recently to be kept down against a pitcher they’ve handled well. Can Miami’s offense and running game keep up?

For the third consecutive season, the Atlanta Braves have been dealing with significant injuries to the roster. They opened the season missing six potential starters or key contributors, with starting pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Spencer Strider, and spot starter Joey Wentz being joined on the injured list by catcher Sean Murphy and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim.

But unlike the last two years, Atlanta’s depth has held so far in 2026. On the position player side, a key reason has been the play of utilityman Mauricio Dubón, who is hitting .321 with a .874 OPS entering Sunday’s action and has already spent time at four different defensive positions.

Dubón is also a pending free agent. Let’s talk about it.

What the Braves have in Dubón

So far, Dubón’s provided exceptional defense with a surprising level of offensive production.

Heading into Sunday’s matchups, the two-time utility Gold Glove winner is tied for 9th in Fielding Run Value at +2 FRV. When you narrow it to just players with 90 or more innings at shortstop, Dubón’s tied for second with Masyn Winn of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Dubón is one of just two players at this level of performance to also play three or more positions, having logged innings at third base and in both left and center fields. Going back to 2023, Dubón’s the only player with more than 110 innings at seven positions and a positive run value, coming in 13th during that span at +31. No matter where he is asked to play, he’s normally a value-add at the position.

But offensively, Dubón’s contributing better than he ever has. His previous best offensive season came in 2023, where he hit .278/.309/.411 across 132 games/492 PAs. Dubón’s 10 homers was a career high, while he drove in 47 and stole seven bags, to boot.

So far in this short season, he’s outperforming 2023. Dubón’s conventional statistics are much better, sitting at .321/.345/.528 with two homers and nine RBI already, but his inputs are also better. He’s improved on his biggest weakness, cutting his chase rate by over 5% from 2023, while also making significant strides in squaring up the ball. As a result of the more optimized contact, his barrel rate (9.1%) and hard-hit rate (36.4%) are both easily career-highs.

The Value of the Role

The ‘super utility’ role isn’t a luxury anymore, it’s a requirement. Between injuries, load management, and matchup optimization, teams need players who can handle 400–500 plate appearances without a defined position.

That’s the key distinction here. Dubón isn’t filling in once a week; he’s effectively a rotating starter, picking up at-bats across the diamond. Players like this raise the floor of a roster. Even if the bat regresses, the defensive versatility and contact profile keep him playable in almost any situation.

For the Braves specifically, this role carries even more weight. This is a roster built around its stars, which makes the connective tissue between them just as important over 162 games. And on a team that has historically struggled to build depth because of limited available playing time, we’ve seen the outsized negative impact that injuries have had on the lineup when they start to pile up.

It’s one of those roles every team needs and very few can actually fill.

The case for an extension

This is one of the hardest roles to replace. Finding someone who can competently handle multiple positions while not being a liability at the plate is harder than it sounds.

MLB’s best utilitymen from last season, the ones that got the most innings at multiple positions, usually fall short in one aspect of the job. Miguel Rojas, José Caballero, and Daniel Schneemann are all exceptional defenders who typically rank as well below-average hitters, while Willi Castro and Luis Rengifo have been decent hitters at times in their careers while coming in below average defensively. (Josh Smith, inexplicably, is neither a good defender nor hitter but keeps getting 500+ plate appearances for the Rangers every season, somehow.)

On the rare occasion that a player becomes available who is good at one and merely competent at the other, the cost is often higher than many are comfortable with. The Los Angeles Dodgers bought low to acquire utilityman Tommy Edman, who excels at both middle infield spots and centerfield (and has also played the outfield corners and third base in his career), in 2024. Despite being injured at the time and with a career .717 OPS, the deal still required the Dodgers to part with a former top prospect in Miguel Vargas and give Edman a five-year, $74M extension to keep him from reaching free agency. It was a high price to pay for a career .258/.312/.405 line, but that versatility is hard to find on the open market.

That’s the market reality for this kind of player; you either develop it internally or you pay a premium to get it.

The rest of the argument comes down to off-the-field considerations: He’s already in the clubhouse and reportedly has fit in with the existing group. Dubón spoke after signing about how the Braves were a big deal during his childhood in Honduras and based solely on that and his public comments, you have to assume he’d at least be open to an extension that would keep him in Atlanta for at least a few more seasons.

The case against an extension

This ultimately comes down to whether the Braves think they can replace him in free agency and if they think his profile will age well.

This winter, there are a lot of infielders available in free agency, but none who project to match Dubón’s defensive value. Both Dubón and Ha-Seong Kim will hit the market, but Kim (who also has a utility Gold Glove) doesn’t have either the health or the outfield experience that Dubón does. Edmundo Sosa of the Phillies is the closest possible analog, having played every non-first base infield spot as well as both left and center field, but he also has a career .257 average and .724 OPS and hasn’t been nearly as valuable defensively as Dubón.

If you’re looking for a hitter who can also do well defensively, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a 30/30 candidate who has experience at all three non-1st infield spots as well as centerfield, but he’s also expected to receive (and reject) a qualifying offer as well as request a top-of-the-market contract as one of the best hitters available this winter. He’s likely out of Atlanta’s price range.

The other part of this conversation is if what Dubón is doing now at the plate can continue all season, as well as over the life of the extension.

Low-power, high-contact bats don’t always fit neatly into the aging curve once that contact ability begins to slip a bit, and a player’s early 30s are typically the time when athleticism begins to drop. While Dubón’s defense is his primary carrying tool, he doesn’t walk enough (career 4.9% rate) to offset any declines in contact ability.

Projecting the contract

This will be the hardest part of any extension conversation - what’s the right comparison contract to base this deal off of?

The most recent utilityman deal signed in unrestricted free agency was for Willi Castro this last winter, who got $12.8M from the Colorado Rockies for the next two seasons. But Castro’s defensive ratings aren’t anywhere near Dubón’s, with his end-of-season rankings having a positive Run Value in just two of his first seven seasons in the league. He’s fundamentally not a shortstop or centerfielder anymore, having been used mostly in the corner outfield and both second and third base in recent seasons.

In an attempt to price a Dubón extension, I briefly chatted with MLB Trade Rumors writer Anthony Franco, who is heavily involved in their free agency and contract extension articles. He suggested a two-year deal with a total between $15M and $18M, noting that many teams are hesitant to go three years on a 32-year-old unless he’s an elite talent and that a $10M AAV felt high for the production that Dubón provides.

This feels like it’s an accurate target for the negotiation, although given that it’s Atlanta and Alex Anthopoulos we’re talking about here, a third season covered via club option feels like that could be the move if Dubón isn’t looking for an extended stint in free agency. 2/$18M with a third club option at $10M would give Dubón a raise over this season’s $6.1M arbitration salary and some long-ish term security.

This keeps him below the Jazz Chisholm Jr. tier but places Dubón at the top of the Castro/Isiah Kiner-Falefa second tier. IKF signed for 2/$15M with Toronto for 2024 & 2025 (at age 29), and then just $6M with Boston for his age-31 season this year. That’s the range where this kind of player tends to live: valuable, but difficult to fully commit to long-term.

So what should the Braves do?

Stars win games, but players like Dubón decide how often you have a chance to win them. The case makes itself.

The decision comes down to how much they believe in the offensive changes. If the improved contact quality is real, Dubón becomes more than just a utility piece. If not, he’s still a valuable floor-raiser, but one that carries more risk into his mid-30s.

The timing matters, too. Extending him now would mean buying at peak value, while waiting introduces the risk of either regression or a stronger free agent market.

The most likely outcome is something in the middle. If Dubón sustains this level of performance deeper into the season, the Braves could look to lock him in on a short-term deal that reflects both his versatility and the inherent risk in the profile.

It’s not a simple call, but it’s exactly the kind of decision the Braves have built their roster around getting right.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Atlanta put this one away for good in the fifth inning.

Already up 5-0 but with Chris Sale battling traffic every inning (more on that in a minute), the Braves put up a two-out rally to salt away the series. Marr Olson and Austin Riley both hit one-out singles to give the Braves runners on the corners, but a Mike Yastrzemski strikeout had the scoring chance on thin ice.

But Ozzie Albies put an inside-out swing on a 1-1 changeup, knee high on the inner third, and shot it up the middle to center.

Today’s Player of the Game

Chris Sale.

The starter went six strong innings, allowing just one run but otherwise keeping the Guardians at bay, despite their best efforts. He picked up ten whiffs, surprisingly getting more on the four-seamer (five) than the slider (four), and had a 32% CSW.

Most notable was Sale’s velocity tonight. He averaged 95.7 on his four-seamer, nearly one mph above his 2026 average, and topped out at 99.4. Per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, that was Sale’s hardest pitch since 2019.

There was a lot of battling by Sale, as he had runners on base seemingly in every inning. He stranded Guardians on 2nd and 3rd in the first thanks to back-to-back strikeouts, a runner on 2nd in the 2nd inning, runners on 1st in both the 3rd and 4th, and a runner on 2nd in the 5th. Only in the sixth, when Rhys Hoskins took him deep to open the inning, was Cleveland finally able to scratch a run across.

(And it was a really good piece of hitting by Hoskins, as Sale threw a 1-0 backdoor changeup on the black away and Hoskins went down to get it.)

After struggling last time out (six runs on five hits in four innings vs the Angels), Sale picked up the win and lowered his 2026 ERA to 3.27.

What You’ll Be Talking About

The offense.

The Braves finished with nineteen hits, seeing every single starter pick up a hit except for catcher Drake Baldwin (and he still got on, just via groundout.) Several Atlanta hitters finished with two or even three knocks, while shortstop Jorge Mateo laced four singles, drove in one, and scored twice. In a nice development, Atlanta did all their damage while hitting just one homer, a two-run shot from Dominic Smith in the 4th.

The bottom of the order deserves special mention here. One night after the bottom four hitters combined for one hit and four strikeouts, everything was flipped: The final four spots combined for 12 hits, including two doubles and a homer, scored eight runs, and drove in eight. They also did it without a single strikeout, with Atlanta’s five coming entirely from Mike Yastrzemski (three) and Austin Riley (two).

While the wild swings from game to game can be frustrating, for the most part, Atlanta has gotten outsized contributions from the bottom of the order while the guys at the top are getting going.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the win/loss.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Tomorrow’s the start of a new series, with Atlanta welcoming divisional foe Miami into Truist Park for three. Here are the matchups for the series:

Monday (7:15): Grant Holmes vs Eury Pérez
Tuesday (7:15): Reynaldo López vs Max Meyer
Wednesday (7:15): Bryce Elder vs Chris Paddack

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:20 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: National broadcast on NBC/Peacock

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind SSE at 9 mph (blowing out to left field)

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
CF Mauricio Dubón
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• Dubón gets a second straight start in centerfield with Michael Harris II on the paternity list.

Cleveland Guardians

LF Angel Martínez (S)
RF Chase Delauter (L)
3B José Ramírez (S)
C David Fry (R)
1B Rhys Hoskins (R)
DH Kyle Manzardo (L)
2B Juan Brito (S)
CF Daniel Schneemann (L)
SS Brayan Rocchio (S)

Quick thoughts:

• It’s a day off for Steven Kwan, with Daniel Schneemann taking over in centerfield and batting 9th.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Chris Sale (2-1, 3.94)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.94 ERA / 3.87 xERA / 5.06 FIP

• 25.4 K% / 7.9 BB% / 4.8% HR rate

• Pitch mix

  • vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 43% slider, 13% changeup, <1% sinker

  • vs LHH: 44% slider, 31% four-seamer, 25% sinker

What to watch:

• How does Sale rebound from his last outing, where he allowed six runs on five hits and two walks to the Angels in just four innings?

• The only two Guardians bats with more than six ABs against Chris Sale are José Ramírez (.267, RBI in 30 ABs) and Rhys Hoskins (3-9). Steven Kwan has only six at-bats versus Sale and two hits, but one of those was a homer.

Opposing Starter: RHP Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.29)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.29 ERA / 4.69 xERA / 5.02 FIP

• 24.1 K% / 8.6 BB% / 5.2% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Pitch 1 = cutter (86.3 mph, 30% usage)

• Pitch 2 = four-seamer (94.2 mph, 29% usage)

• Pitch 3 = changeup (81.5 mph, 17% usage)

• Pitch 4 = sinker (94.3 mph, 12% usage)

• Pitch 5 = curveball (78.0 mph, 10% usage)

• Pitch 6 = sweeper (81.3 mph, 3% usage)

How He Attacks Hitters

vs RHH: Here’s a fastball, try and hit it

44% cutter, 26% sinker, 15% four-seamer, 10% curveball, 4% sweeper, 1% changeup

vs LHH: Unpredictable velocity changes

38% four-seamer, 27% changeup, 21% cutter, 10% curveball, 3% sinker, 2% sweeper

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Bibee’s fastballs haven’t actually graded out well this season (-5 Run Value, 2nd percentile) despite above-average FanGraphs Stuff+ grades on both the cutter (107) and sinker (104), so there’s an opportunity here for Atlanta’s right-handed hitters to get hittable pitches in the zone.

• Lefties have a tougher task - not only can they not eliminate offspeeds like righties mostly can, but they also have to deal with three different velocity bands from pitch to pitch with no discernible pattern.

  • Anecdotally, it feels like the large arsenal arms are the ones that have given Atlanta the most fits so far this season.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The best two leverage arms haven’t pitched since Tuesday and are not only going to be available tonight, but likely get used regardless of the score.

Used recently:

• All of the non-high-leverage arms but José Suarez pitched last night.

Potential limitations:

• Not only have Aaron Bummer, Tyler Kinley, and Joel Payamps all pitched on back-to-back days, but Osvaldo Bido is likely down based on his 50 pitches last night and 64 in the last two days. José Suarez is going to need to be up and available today.

Quick takeaway:

• I’m sure Atlanta manager Walt Weiss would love to get seven strong innings out of Chris Sale, as there are only leverage arms and a recently used José Suarez available out of the pen today. Still surprised that there was no roster move made this morning.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Cade Smith hasn’t pitched since Tuesday. It’s a shame that the Braves couldn’t keep the score close last night, as it likely would have forced him into the game for the 9th inning.

Used recently:

• Even with lefty setup man Eric Sabrowski pitching last night, both he and Tim Herrin are available for late-game matchups.

Potential limitations:

• Shawn Armstrong is the right-handed setup man and should be down based on pitch count. Last time he threw 20+ pitches, on Tuesday, he got three games off before being used again.

Quick takeaway:

• Like Atlanta, Cleveland doesn’t really have a long man available today unless they bring back Peyton Pallette on one day rest like Atlanta could do with José Suarez.

What to Watch Today

• How do Atlanta’s hitters rebound from getting shut out last night?

• On that note, can Tanner Bibee get enough fastballs past the Braves bats to keep Cleveland in this one?

• Which offense can put up enough runs off of an Opening Day starter to leave their worn bullpens a long-enough runway to land the plane?

Final Thought

The winner tonight becomes the only team in MLB to not yet have dropped a series on the season. Give me Atlanta, behind six strong innings from Chris Sale and the backend trio of Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Honestly, the top of the ninth.

Atlanta was down just 3-0 and the game was still within closing distance. But Osvaldo Bido, trying to cover a third inning after needing to pitch last night, finally ran out of gas. He picked up two quick outs before walking Steven Kwan, who then came all the way around to score on a stolen base attempt with the ugliest defensive play you’ve seen in a while (more on that later). Angel Martínez then doubled before the Braves finally pulled the plug on Bido and went to Tyler Kinley, but a José Ramírez walk, a double steal, and a single pushed the Cleveland lead to 6-0.

Had the Braves been able to keep it close, they could have gotten to work against the Guardians high-leverage arms in a save situation. Atlanta entered tonight’s contest as one of MLB’s best offenses against opponent bullpens, putting up a .298/.361/.502 line and being third in runs against relievers with 43. Their .863 OPS was 2nd-best in MLB to only the Los Angeles Dodgers, and we’ve seen the Braves hang a crooked number against a closer before (March 28th against Kansas City, the Dom Smith walkoff grand slam game.)

Instead, down six instead of three, they still managed to get two on before two strikeouts and a pop-out ended things.

Today’s Player of the Game

Shocker, but there’s not one. Five hits and no runs don’t beget a player of the game.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Atlanta’s offensive futility.

The top of the order got a runner in scoring position on four different occasions, but Atlanta could never bring them in en route to an 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.

Tonight was mostly the opposite of usual Braves wins - the top of the order accounted for two walks and four hits, including a double (Matt Olson) and a triple (Ronald Acuña Jr.), but the bottom five hitters combined for just one hit and one walk.

Plenty of credit is due to Guardians lefty Parker Messick - he did a masterful job of sequencing tonight, establishing his four-seamer the first time through the order with 46% usage before pivoting. The second and third times through the order saw him triple his changeup usage from the first at-bats, while he leaned harder on the curveball the second time through and ramped up his sinker the third time through. Braves hitters just never felt that comfortable with what Messick was trying to do, and he mostly had his way despite average-at-best raw ‘stuff’.

That being said, the Braves didn’t have much in the way of a gameplan at the plate. The top of the order seemed to be alternating between ambushing early in their plate appearances and trying to work the count and run up Messick’s counts. The bottom of the order felt incredibly passive tonight, taking called strikes in the zone early before flailing on the edges once behind.

An overall forgettable game.

What You’ll Be Talking About, Hilariously Terrible Defense Edition

I’m sorry Jonah Heim, but what was this?

I had high hopes for the former Gold Glover when he signed to open spring training, but his late single notwithstanding, there’s not much that he has shown to justify a bench spot once the rehabbing Sean Murphy returns to Atlanta before the end of the month.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the loss.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are looking to win the series tomorrow evening, on NBC’s Sunday Night Baseball. Staff ace Chris Sale (2-1, 3.94) takes on Guardians Opening Day starter Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.29) at 7:20 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind WNW at 5 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
DH Drake Baldwin (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
1B Matt Olson (R)
3B Austin Riley (R)
CF Mauricio Dubón (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
C Jonah Heim (S)
SS Jorge Mateo (R)

Quick thoughts:

• This is a new lineup for Atlanta after Saturday morning’s news that Michael Harris II is going on the paternity list. It’s fun to think about how many options we had here for today’s lineup, as the trio of Jorge Mateo, Eli White, and Mauricio Dubón can all play centerfield, and both Mateo and Dubón can cover shortstop.

• That being said, giving Mike Yastrzemski the start against a left-hander on the mound at the expense of Eli White was not on my bingo card.

Cleveland Guardians

CF Steven Kwan (L)
LF Angel Martínez (S)
3B José Ramírez (S)
RF David Fry (R)
DH Chase DeLauter (L)
1B Rhys Hoskins (R)
2B Juan Brito (S)
C Austin Hedges (R)
SS Brayan Rocchio (S)

Quick thoughts:

• Only two Guardians have ten or more ABs against Martín Pérez in his career 0- José Ramírez is hitting .263 with a homer in 19 ABs and first baseman Rhys Hoskins is 1-10…but that one hit was a homer.

  • In small sample sizes, Steven Kwan (one homer, 6 ABs) and David Fry (one homer, 4 ABs) have also held their own against Pérez.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Martin Perez (0-0, 3.86)

Quick snapshot (2025):

• 3.54 ERA / 5.36 xERA / 4.24 FIP

• 19.3 K% / 9.6 BB% / 2.6% HR rate

• Pitch mix (2025)

  • vs RHH: 33% cutter, 30% changeup, 28% sinker, 6% curveball, 3% four-seamer

  • vs LHH: 40% sinker, 25% changeup, 15% each of cutter & curveball, 5% four-seamer

• What’s different so far this year?

  • In his first outing of the year, he didn’t throw the four-seamer at all but brought it back in the second appearance.

What to watch:

• It’s all about the velocity differences and locations here - the sinker and changeup have very similar movement profiles, with less than half an inch of IVB between the two and just over one inch of horizontal movement difference on average. Keeping hitters guessing at which one is on the black (and not over the heart of the plate) will be key here.

Opposing Starter: LHP Parker Messick (1-0, 0.82)

Quick snapshot:

• 0.82 ERA / 2.93 xERA / 3.15 FIP

• 27.5 K% / 7.5 BB% / 2.5% HR rate

The arsenal:

• Pitch 1 = four-seamer (93.1 mph, 33% usage)

• Pitch 2 = changeup (84.8 mph, 22% usage)

• Pitch 3 = sinker (92.3 mph, 16% usage)

• Pitch 4 = slider (86.7 mph, 13% usage)

• Pitch 5 = curveball (78.5 mph, 11% usage)

• Pitch 6 = cutter (90.0 mph, 5% usage)

How He Attacks Hitters

vs RHH: Heaters early, changeups when ahead

43% four-seamer, 28% changeup, 14% curveball, 8% cutter, 4% slider, 3% sinker

vs LHH: sinker/slider ‘give me a groundball’ early, changeup/slider ‘give me a whiff’ when ahead

35% sinker, 28% slider, 17% four-seamer, 12% changeup, 8% curveball

Sequencing (2026):

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• No Braves have ever seen Parker Messick in the majors, and it’s not an easy bat - the only pitch you can really eliminate is the cutter to lefties - but that being said, he does have preferences.

• Lefties need to try and focus on quality contact off the sinker/slider combo, attempting to elevate - he’ll let you hit it, just make it count

• Righties need to resist the urge to chase, as most of these secondaries are being thrown off the plate. The only pitch he throws in the zone with any consistency is the four-seam fastball, mostly middle and upper third. He aims the sinker low, and will occasionally hang one, but the locations here aren’t as crisp.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The best two leverage arms haven’t pitched since Tuesday and are all available tonight.

Used recently:

• Joel Payamps, Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer pitched last night, given that none of them needed even ten pitches, they should all be available if needed tonight. Osvldo Bido threw 14, so you’d like to stay away from him, but he can come back if needed.

Potential limitations:

• José Suarez is most assuredly down tonight, making Osvaldo Bido the long man.

Quick takeaway:

• Two of these arms had to come in after José Suarez got into trouble last night, and you can see the impact it’s had on the availability. Having both Osvaldo Bido and Joel Payamps down last night would have given Walt Weiss a lot more flexibility if Martín Pérez runs into trouble tonight.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Just like Atlanta, Cleveland’s two best leverage arms in Cade Smith and Shawn Armstrong both haven’t pitched since Tuesday and are available tonight.

Used recently:

• Kolby Allard took an inning last night but can likely come back, if needed.

Potential limitations:

• Matt Festa (3-day pitch count) and Peyton Pallette (last night’s pitch count) should both be down today, in an ideal scenario.

Quick takeaway:

• Even if manager Stephen Vogt gives Kolby Allard the night off, he has two other well-rested lefties in Erik Sabrowski and TIm Herrin.

What to Watch Today

• What type of length can the Braves get from the veteran Pérez? An uneventful six-inning start would do wonders for a bullpen that doesn’t project to have a completely fresh long man available tonight.

  • A bunch of runs by Atlanta’s offense can take care of that, too.

• How long will it take the Braves to get comfortable against Parker Messick? Being at home and so having access to the Trajekt machine installed in the tunnel just behind Atlanta’s dugout could be handy.

Final Thought

Tonight’s the matchup that the Braves aren’t favored to win, mostly because of the talent discrepancy between the emerging prospect Messick and the aging veteran Pérez. But if Atlanta’s offense can figure out Messick like they did Slade Cecconi last night, it’s entirely possible to go ahead and clinch the series tonight.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Atlanta’s offense exploded in the 6th inning, putting this game away, but they would have been clawing back in if not for how the top of the 5th unfolded.

With the game tied at one after first baseman Kyle Manzardo took Bryce Elder deep, the top of the 5th started off innocently enough: Bp Naylor grounded out before a softly-hit single by Angel Martínez gave Cleveland a baserunner.

But then, the wheels started to come off for Elder. Angel Martinez stole second during Brayan Rocchio’s plate appearance, which ended in a walk. Steven Kwan then ambushed a cutter that caught too much of the plate, shooting it to left and scoring Martínez from second. Chase DeLauter then walked on five pitches, with only the one strike being remotely close to the zone, to load the bases. Elder was able to buckle down and strike out José Ramirez in a really impressive fashion, elevating a sinker that he swung under, but manager Walt Weiss had seen enough.

Despite Elder being at just 76 pitches, Kyle Manzardo was up next and Weiss didn’t want to risk it; he went to lefty Aaron Bummer, who induced a pop-up on an elevated curveball to end the inning and hold Cleveland to just one run despite sending seven batters to the plate.

Today’s Player of the Game

By vote of the Braves Postcast, it’s going to Ronald Acuña Jr.

Atlanta’s rightfielder got his first home run of the 2026 season, turning on an inside curveball to lead off the 6th inning and tie the game at two.

The homer seemed to put Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi on the ropes, as he very quickly unraveled as Atlanta put up six runs in the frame. Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson both capitalized on his shakiness, swinging at the first strike they got in their at-bats to single to center (Baldwin) and homer to right (Olson) to stake Atlanta to a 4-2 lead. The Braves would go on to get two more singles, a double, and a homer in the inning to knock Cecconi from the game and take a 7-2 lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

Ronald finished with two hits, two RBI, and the one run scored. He also had three hard-hit balls on the evening, giving him 20 on the season and at least one in each of the last 13 games.

What You’ll Be Talking About

As much as this was just a fun game to watch, a lot of the conversation late centered around the struggles of longman José Suarez.

Entering in the 7th inning and staked to a seven-run lead, Suarez allowed Cleveland to get three runs back thanks to three hard-hit balls, a walk, and a soft single that fell in the triangle between shortstop, left field, and center. With runners on the corners and the tying run on deck, manager Walt Weiss pulled Suarez for reliever Joel Payamps, who needed just three pitches to end the inning on a flyout to center.

Suarez was charged with three runs on four hits and a walk while recording only two outs. His ERA on the season is now up to 9.95 and, with prospect Didier Fuentes being a rumored call-up amongst a five-day window to avoid using his minor league option this year, Suarez has positioned himself squarely on the chopping block. That’s now two outings this year where he’s been unable to find the zone and has allowed runs, with seven runs and four walks in just 6.1 innings.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the win/loss.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are back in action tomorrow, with LHP Martín Pérez (0-0, 3.86) taking on fellow lefty Parker Messick (1-0, 0.82) at 7:15 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 77° and mostly sunny, wind NW at 4 mph

Today’s Lineups

Atlanta Braves

RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
C Drake Baldwin (L)
1B Matt Olson (L)
3B Austin Riley (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
DH Dominic Smith (L)
CF Michael Harris II (L)
SS Mauricio Dubón (R)

Quick thoughts:

• This is the standard lineup vs RHP and the most frequently used personnel combination of the season, appearing in its seventh contest defensively. It’s only the second time all season that Smith has hit ahead of Harris, though; that’s an adjustment that Atlanta made on Monday versus Los Angeles.

Cleveland Guardians

CF Steven Kwan (L)
RF Chase DeLauter (L)
3B José Ramirez (S)
1B Kyle Manzardo (L)
DH Rhys Hoskins (R)
2B Juan Brito (S)
C Bo Naylor (L)
LF Angel Martínez (S)
SS Brayan Rocchio (S)

Quick thoughts:

• This specific lineup has combined for only nine home runs on the season. Chase DeLauter is responsible for five of those by himself, and four of them came in the season-opening series against the Seattle Mariners. It’s a good matchup for Bryce Elder is what I’m saying.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: Bryce Elder (1-1, 0.00 ERA)

Quick snapshot (2025):

• 5.30 ERA / 4.73 xERA / 4.55 FIP

• 19.3 K% / 7.5 BB% / 3.5% HR

• Pitch mix (avg 4S FB velo = 91.8 mph)

  • vs RHH: 53% sinker, 37% slider, 6% changeup, 3% 4S FB

  • vs LHH: 33% slider, 30% sinker, 22% 4S FB, 15% changeup

• What’s different so far this year?

  • Elder’s new cutter. The righty threw it exclusively to lefties in his first two starts, which is suboptimal usage, but something he vowed to improve.

• What to watch:

  • It’s all about locations for Elder. He had a 47.6% whiff rate when he took his stuff out of the zone, but only a 10.6% whiff over the plate. His slider, specifically, is the most egregious example of this - 63.1% out of the zone but only 13% in it (and that’s almost entirely derived from landing it in the bottom third of the zone - it gets a whiff rate of just 7% in the middle or upper third).

  • Not a ton of experience here for Cleeland against the sinkerballer - Steven Kwan is 3-7, former Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins is 2-5, but no one else has more than four at-bats off of Elder.

Opposing Starter: Slade Cecconi (0-1, 5.23)

Quick snapshot (2025):

• 4.30 ERA / 4.99 xERA / 4.64 FIP

• 20.0 K% / 5.9 BB% / 4.4% HR

The arsenal (2025)

• Pitch 1 = four-seamer (94.3 mph, 44% usage)

• Pitch 2 = slider (84.2 mph, 18% usage)

• Pitch 3 = curveball (75.5 mph, 16% usage)

• Pitch 4 = sinker (93.6 mph, 11% usage)

• Pitch 5 = changeup (84.3 mph, 8% usage)

• Pitch 6 = cutter (88.8 mph, 3% usage)

What’s different so far this year?

• Cecconi has scrapped the slider completely and replaced it with his cutter, which has jumped to 26% usage, and added a sweeper.

How He Attacks Hitters

vs RHH: East-to-West with the sweeper, cutter, and sinker

31% cutter, T-19% four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, 10% curveball

vs LHH: North-and-South with four-seam, cutter, and curveball

46% four-seamer, 32% curveball, 23% cutter

Sequencing (2026):

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• It’s an Atlanta lineup that’s mostly unfamiliar with Cecconi - only one player has more than four career ABs against the righthander - so it’s essentially a fresh look at the new version of Cecconi.

• Most of catcher Bo Naylor’s ABS challenges - four of the five - have been on the sides of the zone and not the top or bottom. I imagine that with Cecconi running an E-W game against righties, he’ll be looking to steal strikes that clip the edges of the zone.

• Atlanta’s best hitters last year against righty cutters: Drake Baldwin (2.627 RV/100) and Michael Harris II (2.333 RV/100).

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The leverage arms haven’t pitched since Tuesday and are all available tonight.

Used recently:

• Joel Payamps threw seven pitches on Wednesday, but the day off means he’s likely good to go tonight.

Potential limitations:

• It’s possible that José Suarez is being saved for true bulk work, but other than that, everyone projects to be available.

Quick takeaway:

• Amazing what an easy win on getaway day, combined with an off day, can do for your pen.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Long men Peyton Pallette and old friend Kolby Allard both haven’t pitched since Monday, so they’re likely both on the board at this point.

Used recently:

• Neither of the two twenty-plus pitch arms from Wednesday, Connor Brogdon or Matt Festa, should be unavailable tonight thanks to the off day and that being their fist action since last Sunday.

Potential limitations:

• If it were me, I’d try to avoid using Eric Sabrowski for the third time in four days and the fourth time in six days.

Quick takeaway:

• Steven Vogt shouldn’t be limited on his bullpen options heading into the start of the series.

What to Watch Today

• Can Cleveland elevate enough sinkers from Bryce Elder to score runs tonight? Four runs seems to be their sweet spot - they’re 7-0 when scoring four runs and only 1-5 when held to less.

• How do the Braves handle a new look Cecconi? The cutter will do yeoman’s work as a bridge pitch in both his vertical and horizontal attacks.

Final Thought

Neither team has lost a series this season; they’re the only two teams remaining in MLB that can say that. Barring a rainout, that changes this weekend. I’ve got the Braves taking two out of three, partially thanks to the new City Connects.