Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
RF Eli White
3B Austin Riley
C Joey Bart
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s adjusting the lineup for a lefty starter, putting Eli White into right field and Joey Bart behind the plate.

Texas Rangers Lineup

DH Joc Pederson
LF Wyatt Langford
3B Josh Jung
RF Brandon Nimmo
1B Jake Burger
SS Ezequiel Duran
CF Evan Carter
2B Nicky Lopez
C Kyle Higashioka

Quick thoughts:

• Braves legend Nicky Lopez gets a second start at second base, batting 8th, while that mf’er Joc Pederson enters the lineup as the leadoff hitter.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Owen Murphy (0-1, 2.25 ERA)

Quick snapshot (AAA):

• 3.88 ERA / 3.84 xERA / 4.24 FIP

• 27.0% K / 8.3% BB / 18.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 46% four-seamer, 23% slider, 15% curveball & changeup, 1% sinker

• vs RHH: 42% four-seamer, 34% slider, 10% sinker, 8% changeup & curveball

What to watch:

• Murphy’s weakness in Triple-A was giving up barrels (14th percentile mark of 10.7%), owing to his 40% hard-hit rate (38th percentile). Keeping Rangers hitters from making solid contact will be crucial today.

Who to watch:

• Obviously, no Rangers have faced Murphy in the majors.

Opposing Starter: LHP MacKenzie Gore (5-8, 4.63 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.63 ERA / 3.88 xERA / 3.62 FIP

• 25.7 K% / 9.2 BB% / 16.5% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (45%, 95.4 mph)

• Curveball (21%, 81.8 mph)

• Changeup (11%, 86.7 mph)

• Cutter (9%, 90.0 mph)

• Slider (9%, 85.8 mph)

• Sinker (29%, 95.2 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A slider-dominant mix that throws more of them early in the count than with two strikes, cutts slider usage for sinkers when behind, and ramps up the curveball when ahead and with two strikes.

vs RHH: A four-seam dominant mix with some common tendencies - more fastballs and less breaking/offspeed when behind in the count, and increased curveball and changeup usage (at the expense of the four-seamer) when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Ozzie Albies, in 17 career ABs off of the former Nationals starter Gore, has a homer and two RBI while hitting .353. Michael Harris is hitting ‘only’ .267 in 15 ABs, but with two homers and three RBI, while Austin Riley’s 4-12 with an RBI.

Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Almost everyone has had close to a week off.

Used recently:

• Raisel Iglesias threw 14 pitches in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, but after three days of rest, he’s good to go for tonight.

Potential limitations:

• Victor Mederos likely isn’t available today (and probably not tomorrow, either), but the fact they didn’t send him back down to Gwinnett is likely a good sign.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has virtually all hands on deck to try and win the series early.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Most of the pen has had five days off.

Used recently:

• Closer Jacob Latz needed only six pitches for his All-Star Game outing on Tuesday, so he’s good to go. Ben Peoples threw only six pitches last night, so no reason he can’t come back this afternoon if needed.

Potential Limitations

• Texas used two of their lower-leverage righties last night in Emiliano Teodo and Gavin Collyer, so the important relievers are all fresh and can try and hold a lead if Texas gets there this afternoon.

  • Also, they optioned both of these guys to Triple-A Round Rock before the game to activate Jakob Junis (hip impingement) off the IL and to call up Jose Corniell, so it’s essentially an entirely fresh bullpen.

Quick takeaway:

• Texas has the pieces to steal a win from Atlanta today and thanks to today’s roster moves, they can even absorb another short outing from a starter.

What to Watch Today

• Do the Braves have any runs left in their bats after last night’s offensive explosion? Being serious, Atlanta appeared to be hunting specific parts of the zone. They swung at 81% of Cal Quantrill’s pitches inside the strike zone, and got nine hits coming with two strikes.

• MacKenzie Gore has an ERA nearly two and a half runs worse on the road than he does at home (5.81 to 3.44). How much of that is randomness in the teams he’s faced, and how much of that is being in a hitter’s park instead of a pitcher’s one? We’ll likely find out today.

  • He also has a 5.40 ERA in his four career starts in Truist Park, a figure that would be higher had he not gotten off the hook with five unearned runs in a start back in September of 2024.

• How well can Murphy establish the top part of the zone with his four-seamer? Many Rangers hitters have terrible whiff rates on elevated fastballs (attack zones 11-13) this season, so let’s see if he can sneak some heaters past Danny Jansen (57.9% whiff rate), Evan Carter (45.5%), and Ezequiel Duran (43.8%).

Final Thought

Braves are a slight favorite in game two, despite the lopsided pitching matchup, with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of nine runs. Can Owen Murphy hold the Rangers offense at bay, or will they jump on the youngster?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

It came early in this one.

Atlanta entered the 4th inning having put eight men on base, but scoring only two. They left runners on 2nd and 3rd in the bottom of the first, followed by leaving the bases loaded in the 2nd.

They didn’t leave them loaded in the 4th.

With the bottom of the order up to bat, the Striper Bros got to work. Shortstop Jim Jarvis, known as “Jimmy Baseball” to his friends, singled to open the inning, followed by a fortuitous bounce off the third base bag by Brewer Hicklen that resulted in a double. With runners on second and third and no outs, Drake Baldwin came up for his third at-bat of the game, having already recorded an RBI.

He picked up three more here, sending a 0-1 splitter 419 feet into the home bullpen to break this one open.

Things were academic from this point, with Atlanta scoring seven more runs before the Rangers finally got on the board and cruising to an easy win.

Today’s Player of the Game

With 56% of the vote, Chris Sale picked up his team-leading 11th Player of the Game award.

I talked in The Scouting Report today about how Sale wasn’t able to log more than one quality start in his last seven outings, being pulled with two outs in the sixth inning on three different occasions.

Well, Chris Sale apparently took that as a challenge.

The veteran lefty went seven shutout innings tonight, allowing just two hits and no walks while striking out six. He was surprisingly efficient at the same time, needing just 89 pitches (62 strikes) and looked like he could have gone the distance if Atlanta asked him to.

His very last pitch, a 98 mph fastball to strike out 1B Jake Burger, was a middle-middle heater that Sale stared down after throwing it. He was fired up, and pitching like it was a scoreless tie, not an eight-run lead.

The veteran lefty had everything working for him, getting eight of his sixteen whiffs on his four-seam fastball and five more on the slider. He averaged 96.5 mph on his four-seamer, a full half mph higher than his season average, and maxed out at 99.2. His ERA is now down to 2.06 after tonight’s win.

But special mention, and even an additional Player of the Game award, goes to reliever Victor Mederos.

He allowed just one run on three hits in the final two innings tonight, striking out one and flashing both a low-90s cutter (with a 40% whiff rate) and the ability to reach back and get high-90s on his fastball.

And because of the blowout nature of this game, he showed a different aspect of his game, as well.

With Atlanta up 12-0 entering the 8th, manager Walt Weiss made a plethora of replacements. Jorge Mateo replaced Ozzie Albies at second base, Joey Bart replaced Drake Baldwin behind the plate, and Dominic Smith moved from DH to first base to give Matt Olson the final few innings off.

That means Victor Mederos was in a standard lineup spot, and that mattered in the bottom of the 8th. Coming up fourth in the inning, Matt Olson loaned him batting gloves and a bat. Originally being told before the inning to not swing if he came up, the coaches said before the at-bat that he could swing, but “not hard”.

About that.

Facing position player Kyle Higashioka, Mederos laced a 104 mph single through the left side, driving in two.

He still hadn’t fully processed it after the game, telling the media he “was just in disbelief. I was just like, there’s no way this is happening.”

Mederos is the first Braves pitcher to record a hit since the universal DH was put into place before the 2022 season, and the first Atlanta pitcher to record an RBI since Max Fried on July 17th, 2021.

What You’ll Be Talking About

This was a fun game.

Every Braves starter not only recorded a hit, they had all done it by the fourth inning. A reliever got a two-RBI single, while Atlanta racked up nineteen hits and six walks. Texas pitchers only faced the minimum in one inning, the third, and that required a double play to erase a leadoff single.

But it’s also important to point out that despite the massive lead and entertaining vibe of the game, Atlanta was still taking the game seriously.

Austin Riley, having a nightmare season, ranged far into foul territory and laid out to catch a pop-out from Alejandro Ozuna in the eighth inning. With an eleven-run lead.

Let’s hope that puts the “Riley doesn’t care” comments to rest, yeah?

The baseball gods rewarded Riley for his hustle, with the slumping slugger homering off of the position player Higashioka to open the bottom half of the inning. Atlanta then pulled Riley for Kyle Farmer for the ninth inning, which shows us that Walt Weiss was deliberately leaving Austin in the game for one more at-bat, possibly as a confidence booster.

Let’s hope the baseball gods continue to shine on Riley and this was the success he needed to start the rally.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are looking for an early series win tomorrow afternoon at 4:15 PM. Prospect Owen Murphy (0-1, 2.25 ERA) will make his first career MLB start against lefty MacKenzie Gore (5-8, 4.63 ERA) at 4:10 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis
RF Brewer Hicklen

Quick thoughts:

• Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris swap spots, with Baldwin back at leadoff and Harris the cleanup hitter, while Jarvis and Hicklen reunite as the ‘Striper Bros’ at the bottom of the order.

Texas Rangers Lineup

DH Justin Foscue
LF Wyatt Langford
RF Brandon Nimmo
3B Josh Jung
1B Jake Burger
SS Ezequiel Duran
CF Cam Cauley
C Elias Díaz
2B Nicky Lopez

Quick thoughts:

• Braves legend Nicky Lopez gets the start at second base, batting 9th.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (9-6, 2.20 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.20 ERA / 3.45 xERA / 2.81 FIP

• 29.0% K / 6.2% BB / 22.4% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 39% slider, 33% sinker, 27% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 39% slider, 15% changeup, 1% sinker

What to watch:

• We didn’t get any resolution to the ‘Chris Sale quality start watch’ last time out, on Friday night versus the Cardinals, due to rain forcing him from the game after just three scoreless innings. But the fact remains that Sale’s had just one quality start in his last seven outings, partly due to the occasional bout of inefficiency with his pitch count.

Who to watch:

• Only seven Rangers have ever seen Sale in a game, and only four have hits: catcher Elias Díaz is 1-4, fellow catcher Kyle Higashioka is 1-6, outfielder Wyatt Langford is 1-3, and outfielder Brandon Nimmo is 2-7.

Opposing Starter: RHP Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.11 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.11 ERA / 4.59 xERA / 4.74 FIP

• 14.5 K% / 6.7 BB% / 7.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Cutter (30%, 88.3 mph)

• Sinker (29%, 94.1 mph)

• Four-seamer (19%, 94.0 mph)

• Splitter (18%, 85.7 mph)

• Curveball (5%, 78.9 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A fastball-dominant mix with common tendencies - more splitters when ahead in the count, as well as exchanging splitters for four-seamers when behind. Dropping cutter usage for sinkers with two strikes is an interesting wrinkle, though.

vs RHH: A heavy fastball mix, with more cutters early (at the expense of four-seamers and splitters), a ton of sinkers when behind in the count, and four-seam/splitter with two strikes instead of sinkers and cutters.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Virtually everyone but the Striper Bros has faced Quantrill in their careers, but somehow only Matt Olson (4-10, 2 RBI) has taken him deep. Let’s see if anyone else can join him tonight.

Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Everyone.

Used recently:

• Raisel Iglesias threw 14 pitches in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, but after two days of rest, he’s good to go for tonight.

Potential limitations:

• None.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has all hands on deck for the start of the ‘second half’.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Also everyone.

Used recently:

• Closer Jacob Latz needed only six pitches for his All-Star Game outing on Tuesday, but he’s reportedly good to go as well.

Potential Limitations

• None.

Quick takeaway:

• This is likely the last time that either bullpen will be this rested from now until October.

What to Watch Today

• What does Atlanta’s offense look like with a few days off? Thinking mostly about the guys that were struggling here (like Austin Riley), but will any of the hotter hitters from early July be a bit rusty after four days off?

Final Thought

Braves are favored in the opener, as they are in virtually every Chris Sale start, with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of eight runs. Can the Braves give Sale some run support, or will this be a repeat of June where he’ll be on the wrong side of a 2-1 decision?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

“You need three hot hitters, three hot starters, and three hot relievers to win in October.”

That’s it. Not five starters. Not a 13-man pitching staff. Not the deepest roster in baseball.

Three dudes who shove.

The deeper I thought about it, the more it explained why contenders approach the trade deadline the way they do.

Former Athletics general manager Billy Beane reached a similar conclusion years earlier, telling Michael Lewis in Moneyball:

“My shit doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs; what happens after that is luck.”

He wasn’t saying the postseason is entirely random. He was saying it’s a different game. Smoltz approached it from the mound and Beane approached it from the front office, but they arrived at the same conclusion.

The 162-game slog of the regular season rewards depth and endurance (and, frankly, whether you stayed healthy enough to survive it). It’s about surviving.

We spend all summer debating ERA, innings, and the fifth starter.

None of those questions matter very much once the calendar flips to October, as it rewards stars who happen to get hot at exactly the right time. The only goal is to win four games before the other team does, and in a small sample size, stars assume an outsized impact on the result.

That’s why Alex Anthopoulos doesn’t need to answer one question over the next two weeks. He needs to answer three:

Who starts Games 1, 2, and 3 of a postseason series?

If the Braves are serious about October, evaluating the rotation means asking a different question from the one we’ve been asking all season.

The question is no longer:

Can this pitcher make 32 starts?

It’s instead:

Would I hand him the ball in Game 2 of a playoff series?

Let’s talk about it.

Game One: Don’t overthink this

If the playoffs were to start today, Chris Sale would be getting the ball, and he’d be fired up about it.

Remember, this would be Sale’s first-ever playoff start with the Braves. Towards the end of his Cy Young-winning 2024 season, Sale was dealing with back spasms. The lefty made only four starts in the month of September and was left off the Wild Card roster, although he reportedly would have gotten the ball for game one had Atlanta advanced to the NLDS.

I’d go as far as to argue that even if the Braves were to acquire one of the few starters in the sport who are better than him, he’d still be getting the ball in the first game of any postseason series, and both he and the addition would want it that way.

He’s as good as ever, the unquestioned veteran leader of this team, and he’d get the ball in game one of a postseason series.

October Verdict: Game 1 Starter

Game Two: Nobody has claimed it

If Chris Sale is the easiest decision Alex Anthopoulos has to make, Game 2 is by far the hardest.

Let’s go player by player and you’ll see what I mean:

Hurston Waldrep

He’s exciting, and his splitter is probably the best remaining swing-and-miss pitch among Atlanta’s non-Chris-Sale starters.

But will he be ready? Waldrep was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett last week after 10.2 innings at the major league level with 10 walks and 10 earned runs. Coming off of elbow surgery, neither the command nor the control has been there to get ahead of hitters, and that’s a prerequisite for his splitter to work to maximum effectiveness. Waldrep’s three outings this year saw his pitches be in the strike zone just 42.8% of the time, while his breakout 2025 performance down the stretch saw that number over 50% on everything but his whiff options of the splitter and curveball.

It’s entirely possible, and maybe even likely, that Waldrep can get back to the 2025 form he showed as he gets farther away from this spring’s elbow scope. And that's exactly the dilemma Atlanta faces. The upside is obvious. The probability of reaching it by October isn't. Front offices don't trade for certainty because upside doesn't exist; they trade for certainty because October punishes uncertainty.

October Verdict: Not Yet

AJ Smith-Shawver

Smith-Shawver had Tommy John surgery early last summer and has been on rehab for a few weeks tonight, being scheduled to pitch tonight for Gwinnett in his fourth start since officially starting the rehab assignment. His last outing, last Saturday for the Stripers, was electric…until it wasn’t, with two walks and three singles versus Memphis ending his day with one out in the third inning.

(If you’re curious, here’s a quick podcast I did last Sunday about his start, what he said after the outing, and my thoughts after spending the day in Gwinnett as a guest of the Stripers.)

I think AJ will return to the breakout form he showed last season, when he had a 2.33 ERA through his first seven starts, but you can’t bank on that so soon after Tommy John surgery.

October Verdict: Not Yet

Reynaldo López and Grant Holmes

I’m grouping these two together because they’re in similar boats - converted relievers that have been in and out of the bullpen this season, albeit for different reasons.

López lost his mechanics and velo partway through the year as he continues to work his way back from shoulder surgery that ended his 2025 season after just one start. He’s since been reinstated to the rotation, partly out of necessity.

Holmes has a very significant and demonstrable weakness once the lineup turns over, allowing opposing hitters to improve from a pedestrian .194/.288/.276 the first time through to an absurd .305/.377/.633 when they face him for a second time in the same game. That jump in OPS from .564 to 1.010 is essentially watching an opposing lineup morph from 2025 Nick Allen (.535 OPS) to 2026 Yordan Alvarez (1.059).

That's the type of split a front office notices immediately. A starter who can't consistently navigate a lineup two times is difficult to trust in October, when every lineup is elite.

Both men are currently in the rotation mostly out of necessity, and have looked better of late. López has a 3.50 ERA in his four starts since returning to a starting role, albeit without having thrown a single pitch in the sixth inning in any of them. Holmes has allowed just two runs combined in his last two starts, although he didn’t get into the sixth in any of those, either.

The duo feels like they may be options for a game three start, if required, but not game two.

October Verdicts: Better fit for long relief or Game 3

Bryce Elder and Martín Pérez

If we can group together ‘converted relievers with transient status in the rotation’, we can do the same with ‘soft-tossing backend groundball guys.’

Both Elder and Pérez are exactly the type of pitchers you need to get through a 162-game season: They post, they (mostly) don’t get hurt, and they can usually do enough to keep you in a ball game.

But we’ve seen this in the postseason firsthand in the instance of Elder, who got victimized for six runs on five hits (including two homers) in just 2.2 innings by Philly in the 2023 NLDS. And despite Pérez having been more consistent this season, do we really expect anything different from a guy averaging 89.2 mph on his fastballs this season?

October Verdict: Regular-season value, postseason question mark

What Is An Impact Starter?

Notice what all of these conversations have in common.

None of them start with ERA.

They start with one question:

Can this pitcher miss enough bats to survive October?

That’s why front offices care so much about strikeout rate, chase rate, whiff rate, and the ability to turn a lineup over multiple times. The postseason is far less forgiving than a Tuesday night in June.

If none of those answers so far make you immediately comfortable, you’ve just identified why Anthopoulos kept talking about ‘impact starters’ all offseason.

Not a depth starter.

Not back-end starter.

Not sixth starter.

Impact. Because impact starters get the ball in October.

Adding one of the many backend guys who were available until after pitchers and catchers reported, like Chris Bassitt (5.27 ERA), Lucas Giolito (5.16 ERA), or Zack Littell (4.90), wouldn’t have fixed Atlanta’s Game Two problem.

An impact starter isn’t someone who is there to throw 180 innings. They’re there to take the ball in Game 2 of a playoff series. They can miss bats, they limit the walks, and can get themselves out of jams thanks to the ability to use multiple plus pitches to bear down and get strikeouts.

Game Three: Hope is not a plan

If you thought Game Two was grim, then look away, because Game Three is just as bad (if not worse)

The way that Atlanta defers to veterans over prospects, this felt like the right place to look at guys who are not yet established in the majors and/or not pitching in Atlanta at the moment and see if any of them would be a candidate to get the ball in October.

JR Ritchie

I’ve pretty consistently been the low man on Ritchie this season. As someone who profiles as a backend starter from an ‘inability to get whiffs’ perspective (34th percentile 23.2% mark), Ritchie’s prerequisites to be successful include limiting the walks, minimizing hard contact, and keeping the ball on the ground.

He’s struggled at times with all three. Ritchie’s walk rate is 13.9%, just 6th percentile in MLB this season, while his average exit velo is a 38th percentile mark of 89.4 mph. That penchant for hard-hit balls hasn’t been as terrible when translated to barrel rate (56th percentile mark of 7.2%) as he is decently above-average at inducing ground balls with a 68th percentile mark of 45.7%, although the games where he’s gotten into trouble have usually come from a well-timed home run cashing in some free passes.

This is exactly the statistical profile of a pitcher you can survive with over 162 games, but one you probably don’t choose for Game 3 of a playoff series. Nothing in this type of profile screams that his outcomes would be any better than those of Elder or Pérez were you to throw him in October.

October Verdict: Regular-season value, postseason question mark

Owen Murphy

The youngster, who has pitched twice in relief in the majors, makes his first career start tomorrow at home against the Texas Rangers. While he’s been mostly fine in Gwinnett, pitching to a 3.88 ERA in his 60.1 innings, it’s easy to see how he could be more suited to getting the ball in the postseason.

His 92 mph four-seam fastball, while not possessing the elite velocity you’d ideally like from a playoff starter, allowed only a .192 xBA and .365 xSLG for the Stripers. He’s shown the ability to generate both chase and whiff in the minors.

He’s also inexperienced, with just four major league innings to his name. While it’s not unprecedented for prospects to come up midsummer and be starting games in October - Yankees rookie Cam Schlitter did it last year - he also had 14 regular season starts and the capacity for 100 mph under his belt when the postseason arrived.

October Verdict: We need to know more

The injured Spencers

We’ve seen Spencer Strider throw 39 innings this season, with poor results (5.31 ERA) despite decent inputs (3.48 xERA, 95th percentile xBA of .188). We haven’t seen Spencer Schwellenbach at all, with the righthander still rehabbing from a more ‘involved’ version of the elbow scope that Hurston Waldrep had. Despite Waldrep having the surgery later than Schwellenbach, Waldrep began his rehab assignment on June 1st while Schwellenbach is rumored to being getting ready for his in the coming weeks.

Strider’s currently on the IL along with Schwellenbach, being shut down back in early June with “right elbow inflammation” and going on the 60-day injured list soon after. He won’t be eligible for activation until two weeks after the trade deadline, while Schwellenbach’s rehab assignment, even if it were to start tomorrow, would see him out until Strider’s first eligible activation date of August 13th. Neither pitcher should be counted on to contribute this season, never mind be a playoff starter.

October Verdict: You can’t count on it

Just go bullpen game

Quick, can you name all of Atlanta’s starting pitchers in the 2021 World Series? Charlie Morton got game one, Max Fried got games two and six, while Ian Anderson had five no-hit innings in game three.

But both games four and five were bullpen games, with Tucker Davidson starting one and Dylan Lee the other. Atlanta won Lee’s game four, with Kyle Wright serving as the bulk pitcher and giving the team multiple innings, while Davidson’s game five was an Astros comeback win that Drew Smyly finished off with the Braves losing by four.

With this year’s NLDS having off days between games one, two, and four, it’s possible that Atlanta might only need two bona fide playoff starters, and they can piece the rest together out of an expanded bullpen that will have more options and bulk guys than in the regular season.

But just like throwing a prospect in Murphy or a backend guy like Elder, this option doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The bullpen has been a strength this season, with four lockdown leverage options in the back and decent stuff across the middle relievers, but the Braves aren’t too practiced at the “opener” concept. Relying on your bullpen to cover even more innings than they’ll already take in a postseason where starters are routinely pulled early is asking for trouble.

Additionally, the more pitchers you throw in a game, the more you’re gambling that someone won’t have an off night. A starter and three or four relievers is already a lot of pitching changes, but throwing six or seven or even eight arms is a recipe for disaster.

October Verdict: Legitimate fallback option, but risky

Can the trade deadline help?

Maybe, depending on how the Wild Card race shakes out in the next two and a half weeks. Atlanta would be best served by not sitting idly by and waiting for that day to come, but rather using the seventeen days to get as much information as possible on each of the above options we’ve discussed.

The Braves need to know who from inside the organization is suited to pitch game two or game three, because the difference matters. If Atlanta needs a Game Two starter, they’re shopping in the luxury aisle. If they need a Game Three starter, they’re shopping for complementary pieces.

If it’s game two’s slot you’re trying to fill, the Braves need to shoot higher than Giants veteran lefty Robbie Ray, and either start talking to the division rival Mets about Freddy Peralta or hope that the Tigers or Red Sox fall out of contention so that Casey Mize or Sonny Gray, respectively, become available. But if they have confidence in internal options for game two and it’s game three to be filled, Ray likely would work for that spot.

The Braves need another starter.

I’m convinced of that.

But that’s never been the interesting question.

The interesting question is:

Which postseason game are they trying to buy?

The answer to that one determines everything else.

Of the four major sports, it’s the one most beholden to its own history, even though almost everything about the game has changed over the past century.

They used to pitch underhand. Home runs once required the batter to circle the bases before the defense could chase the ball down beyond a rope marking the edge of the outfield. No two ballparks are alike in their dimensions. Even many of the statistics we now take for granted didn’t exist for decades; RBIs didn’t become an official statistic until 1920, and saves weren’t recognized until 1969.

And one of baseball’s stranger traditions is calling the All-Star break the “halfway point” of the season, even though it almost never is.

This year, the Braves reached the break after 95 games, meaning the true halfway point quietly came and went two weeks ago.

Baseball has never been especially interested in technical accuracy, though. We still call some outings ‘quality’ starts, even if they produce a 4.50 ERA, and ‘saves’, even when nobody was really in danger.1

So while this isn’t really a halfway report card, it is a good time to take stock of where Atlanta actually stands.

After 95 games, here's where I think this team stands.

Let’s talk about it.

I Still Believe This Offense Can Carry the Braves

The Atlanta Braves peaked at 24 games over .500 in early June, sitting at 45-21, and the Dodgers and Brewers just finally passed that mark last week, after nearly 30 more games than Atlanta had.

And while the Braves had quality pitching contributions through that stretch from both the rotation and the bullpen, the offense was the real star of the show. Through the end of April, no one had scored more runs than Atlanta’s 177. The Braves were third in home runs with 43, 2nd in slug at .449, and third in wOBA at .342.

From an individual perspective, the Braves had plenty to celebrate. Drake Baldwin continued his ascension as one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, with his 144 wRC+ through the end of April finishing as one of the best marks at the position. Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II both showed that their respective slumps from the first half of 2025 were aberrations, while Matt Olson continued his team-leading excellence at the plate.

And several of the role players showed the ability to step up when it mattered. Mauricio Dubón has been reinvigorated in Atlanta, having a career offensive year, while Dominic Smith proved to be an incredibly influential addition, providing several high-leverage hits.

But despite the hot start, Atlanta’s offense was the worst in the sport in the month of June.

• Runs: 30th (77)

• Home runs: 30th (19)

• OPS: 30th (.599)

• wRC+: 30th (64)

And there are several factors that influenced this. Ronald Acuña Jr. is having a very un-Acuña-like season, hitting .251 with a .793 OPS in the 53 games he’s played around two separate injured list stints for a hamstring injury. Drake Baldwin slumped after returning from a one-month absence for an oblique injury, going 5-63 in his first 16 games back from the IL. Austin Riley is having a career-worst .207/.288/.329 line through the first 95 games.

The good news is that things already appear to be stabilizing in July, with Atlanta’s wRC+ surging to 106 and their 67 runs scored already on the verge of eclipsing June’s production after just 12 games. Matt Olson has hit five homers already, while Harris has driven in ten, both Olson and Albies have scored ten times, and Drake Baldwin has scored seven times and driven in seven while walking more than he’s struck out.

This isn’t a perfect lineup - designated hitter has officially become a problem, while they still need a third outfielder - but it’s also not the worst offense in baseball. The talent is still here, and there’s enough firepower to carry this club if even one or two underperforming bats return to form.

And the good news is, those bats may be on the way. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ha-Seong Kim both started a rehab assignment on Monday, while catcher Sean Murphy has been taking batting practice recently and is on the verge of his own rehab assignment.

That's why I still believe this lineup is capable of carrying the Braves into October.

The Bullpen Is Good Enough to Win a Championship

We’ve seen Walt Weiss aggressively deploy Atlanta’s bullpen to ‘chase’ wins, usually succeeding. The backend quartet of closer Raisel Iglesias (a first-time All Star at the age of 35), setup men Robert Suarez and Dylan Lee, and youngster Didier Fuentes deserve a lot of that credit.

The Braves have also gotten clutch performances from other middle relievers like Tyler Kinley (10 holds), Dylan Dodd (one save, four holds), and even four different three-inning saves from various long men.

Atlanta’s been able to mix and match their late-inning relievers to shorten games, occasionally pulling their starters short of five innings and letting a rested bullpen shut down the opposing offense for the back half of the contest. That’s a blueprint that is normally only seen in the postseason, but the Braves are already practiced at it.

The lingering questions are twofold here:

The first is if the relievers can stay healthy enough to continue this - We’ve seen Weiss back off this aggressiveness a bit recently as the trio of Iglesias, Kinley, and Suarez have all spent time on the injured list, while Fuentes has been handled with kid gloves, only throwing on back-to-back days once this season.

The other question is if the rotation can put them into position to actually get those wins.

But at the end of the day, postseason baseball is often decided by relief pitching.

Atlanta already has the formula every contender wants: get through five or six innings with a lead, then hand the ball to a dominant bullpen.

That's why I believe this bullpen is already built for postseason baseball.

The Rotation Still Has More Questions Than Answers

Atlanta has used eleven different starters this season, not quite last season’s astronomical total of 19, but still more than you’d like for just barely being past the halfway mark of the schedule.

In 1948, the Boston Braves held on to win the National League pennant by virtue of winning 11 of their final 15 games. Nine of those 15 games were started by the rotation duo of Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain, prompting Boston Post sports editor Gerald V. Hern to pen the following poem:

“First we’ll use Spahn then we’ll use Sain
Then an off day, followed by rain
Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain
And followed, we hope, by two days of rain”

The 2026 version of this would look something like, “Chris Sale...and a lot of unanswered questions.”

UPDATE: “Chris Sale and four days of hail” was right there and I'm annoyed I didn't think of it at the time.

Outside of Sale, the best of the rest have been mostly adequate, using the most charitable description. Veteran lefty Martín Pérez is pretty much the best of the rest, at a 3.54 ERA, but he’s currently on the injured list. Grant Holmes (3.78 as a starter) and Reynaldo López (3.63 rotation ERA) are holding spots for now, but both have spent time in the bullpen this season, as has Pérez.

The Braves have seen Bryce Elder pull the Jekyll and Hyde act again this season, with a 1.97 ERA through his first 11 starts and an 8.47 in his last seven. Several young arms have come up and struggled out of the rotation, including JR Ritchie (5.55 ERA in 7GS) and Hurston Waldrep (10.38 ERA in 2GS), while Spencer Strider has battled multiple injuries to a 5.31 ERA in his eight starts.

Atlanta knows, as of now, that Chris Sale will start game one of any postseason series. Game two is anyone’s guess. It could be one of these guys currently in the majors, like Holmes or López. It could be someone in the minors, like Waldrep or prospect Owen Murphy, or someone on the injured list like AJ Smith-Shawver or Spencer Schwellenbach.

The reality is that there are talented arms here; there just aren’t enough certainties, and that's why I believe starting pitching remains Atlanta's biggest question.

I Still Believe This Team Can Win the National League East

Atlanta’s slump in June, where everything went wrong en route to a 9-14 month, had plenty of fans writing them off: The offense is too inconsistent. The rotation is too long on questions and too short on certainty. The bullpen can’t seem to stay fully healthy and make up for that rotation, either, because Walt Weiss’ aggressiveness that was a virtue in the first part of the season is now a liability, apparently.

But I’m not ready to give up yet.

Atlanta has survived its worst stretch of the season. Reinforcements are coming, and the core (mostly) remains championship-caliber. Philadelphia, while they’ve surged up the standings under interim manager Don Mattingly, are still doing it through an outlier record in one-run games (19-6) versus through sustainable inputs. Their underlying metrics paint a much different picture of their 54-43 record, as it’s built on a negative run differential of -10, which projects to a 47-50 record.

I’m not saying that everything is copacetic and you can cruise to October. Winning the division won’t happen by accident, but the Braves are still in first place despite the adversity, and even if that were to change, they have seven games versus the Phillies in September. That's why I'm not ready to hand the division to Philadelphia.

This Isn’t the Year to Play It Safe at the Trade Deadline

The Atlanta Braves are positioned to contend for one of the league’s top two seeds for the first time since 2023. This is not the season to hold onto the organization’s prospects in the interest of honoring the team’s competitive window in three seasons.

Whether that's an impact starter, another bat, or both, additions need to be made.

And it’s not going to be easy - there are currently only six teams that are more than 6.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. The Boston Red Sox, who had all but already packed the bags of starter Sonny Gray for the trade deadline, are 14-2 since the last week of June and have closed to within a half-game of the final playoff spot in the American League.

It’s not an easy tightrope for Atlanta to walk. The supply of #2 starters won’t come close to meeting the demand, while most of the offensive upgrades out there will have both high prices and some sort of flaws. And most decisions to sell likely won’t come until August 1st, if not the 2nd or even on deadline day of the 3rd.

But this isn’t the season to sit back and wait for the market to shake out. That's why I believe this is the year Alex Anthopoulos has to push his chips into the middle.

Final Thoughts

This team isn’t perfect.

It has flaws, some of them significant.

But the Braves also have something many contenders don’t: a championship-caliber foundation that’s already in place.

The Braves don’t need to become a different baseball team after the All-Star break.

They just need to become the version of themselves we saw through the season’s first two months.

If they do, and if Alex Anthopoulos gives them the reinforcements they need, there’s still every reason to believe this season’s best baseball is still ahead.

At first glance, it’s simply a list of names. But taken together, the class reveals a clear organizational philosophy.

Here’s a closer look at every selection, what each player brings to the organization, and how each fits Atlanta’s long-term vision.

Player capsules

Day 1

1.9: OF AJ Gracia, Virginia

Gracia’s a legitimate middle-of-the-order offensive prospect, one who both hit for contact and power in his three seasons in the ACC. He has some work that needs to be done: He can be a bit passive in the zone, and he’s going to be challenged from both a speed and arm perspective to stay out of left field, but he’s a potential middle-of-the-order slugger for a decade.

PPI.26: OF Carter Beck, Indiana State

Beck’s the yin in the batter’s box to Gracia’s yang, with an unusually aggressive approach that’s not a detriment thanks to his exceptional bat-to-ball ability (92% zone contact). While Gracia’s development list includes being more aggressive on drivable pitches in the zone, Beck’s considered to have more power to be unlocked if he can be a bit more selective. He’s considered the more likely of the two to stick in center field, thanks to great speed, but the arm’s a question that might push him to left as well.

2.48: RHP Kaiden McCarthy, prep (Vermont)

McCarthy’s one of several Braves draftees to reclassify into the 2026 class, separating him as younger than his cohort. He’s also an exceptional athlete, already having a clean and efficient arm motion that allows him to run his four-seam and two-seam fastballs into the high-90s. He has both a big, 12-to-6 knuckle curve and a sweepier slider in the high-80s, presenting a great base of pitches to mold into a frontline starter. He did have a shoulder impingement that took away part of his spring, so he might spend a lot of time in bridge league, catching up on facing quality (i.e. non-Vermont) competition.

In both Florida and Arizona, teams coordinate an unofficial ‘bridge league’ throughout the summer and into fall, where recently signed players often spend time getting additional instruction through friendly scrimmages before making their official professional debut.

3.84: RHP Jensen Hirschkorn, prep (California)

Hirschkorn might have the highest ceiling of any of Atlanta’s draftees, but was still on the board in the 3rd because his multi-million bonus demand (and commitment to deep-pocketed LSU) had many teams writing him off as undraftable. The Braves are being rewarded for their financial flexibility with a projectable frame (6’7, 205) that sports a very clean and smooth arm action. The multi-sport athlete (basketball) was projected as high as #15 (Baseball America) owing to his mid-90s velocity on his multiple fastballs, exceptional depth on his two-plane slider, and multiple ancillary pitches in a surprisingly polished changeup and a budding cutter.

One of the most common anecdotes for Hirschkorn related to his performance in California’s Area Code Games, where he got swinging strikeouts of all nine batters he faced in a three-inning appearance.

4:112: RHP Cole Dennis, prep (Florida)

Dennis’s a late riser in the class, jumping from a low-90s fastball to 97 mph this spring. Some of that is late development, as he was a two-way player whose 12 homers as a catcher this spring was among the best marks for all Florida preps. He pairs the fastball with both a high-spin downer curveball and a low-spin changeup, an impressive dichotomy in spin capacity that resembles AJ Smith-Shawver. He won’t turn 18 until this fall, joining McCarthy as one of the youngest players in the class.

Day 2

5.144: LHP Will Libbert, Ole Miss

Libbert’s an SEC product, having spent his first two seasons at Missouri before transferring to join the Rebs. His velo jump from the low-to-mid-90s is why he’s jumped to the top of day two, but it’s an interesting fastball/cutter/changeup package. He also has some interesting deception potential, throwing from a higher lefty slot with some crossfire in his finish.

6.173: RHP Tyson Grulkowski, prep (Wisconsin)

Grulkowski’s a big-bodied (6’5, 225), low slot spin savant - per Baseball America, he can run his breaking ball up to 2900 RPM and has a changeup and a mid-90s fastball to pair with it. It’s hard not to hear this and think a ‘Chris Sale’-esque profile - a low-slot starter with elite spin characteristics - and I think that’s likely the direction they’ll go with Grulkowski.

7.202: C Jack Brenner, prep (Wisconsin)

The Braves either love cold-weather guys or really trust their Northern area scout. Brenner’s an Oklahoma recruit that’s more tools than polish right now, sporting a strong arm but plenty of development ahead. His offense is the strength at the moment, with a compact, line-drive-oriented swing.

8.232: C Jacob Jarrell, Clemson

Atlanta’s first clear senior sign, Jarrell’s likely to stick behind the plate and has some pop in his bat, but also has swing-and-miss concerns that may prevent him from putting it all together.

9.262: OF Parker Brosius, Georgia Tech

Another senior sign, Brosius broke out in his final year of college, raising his batting average by nearly 100 points and nearly doubling his OPS. He’s shown the ability to both steal bags efficiently (14-for-15 his junior year) and hit for some power (13 homers his senior season), though not at the same time.

10.292: 1B Ben Zeigler-Namoa, Hawaii

A fifth-year senior who will likely get the league-provided minimum of $2500 to sign, Zeigler-Namoa’s a former Juco Bandit that spent time at both first and corner outfield during his Hawaii tenure and was seen as defensively sound at first base. He’ll be organizational depth for the Braves.

11.322: 3B Ryne Barker, prep (Arizona)

Here’s the first prep for Atlanta with questionable signability (which is why they took him in the 11th - any player from this point on that doesn’t sign does not result in a loss of draft pool dollars). He has 70-grade speed, is committed to Texas Tech, and is seen as raw, with questions about both his defensive home and power potential. But the athleticism’s undeniable and he’s flashed every tool a team could want.

12.352: C Dominic Kibler, Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Another senior sign, Kibler’s a Kent State transfer who stepped up against power conference opponents: He hit a homer, doubled, and walked three times against LSU to open the season, homered with three walks against Duke, and even tagged my Auburn Tigers with an RBI single in regionals. He played both outfield and catcher in college, being named to the Horizon All-League First Team at the “flex” position.

13.382: RHP Cole Dorland, prep (British Columbia, Canada)

Sensing a theme here with the cold-weather players? They’re all a little bit underscouted and underdeveloped - turns out baseball is a little harder to scout and teach when half the season is played under snow. He’s an Alabama commit, but is still six months from turning 18 and so flashed on Atlanta’s models. His father was a D1 athlete in Louisiana, and those genes have translated - he’s up to 96 on his fastball with both a good breaking ball and surprising feel for an offspeed pitch, given that he’s a prep and all.

14.412: RHP Brody Hamilton, Wichita State (which is not a state, for the record).

He was the #8 player in Oklahoma coming out of high school, but the promise never fully materialized into production for the Shockers. He finished his college career with a 5.56 ERA across 204 innings, although his 2025 summer on the Cape with a 1.48 ERA likely got him on Atlanta’s radar.

15.442: OF Caleb Klein, SE Missouri State (“SE Missouri” is also not a state)

Another former Juco Bandit, Klein had more walks than strikeouts while serving as the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for the Redhawks. He stole 14 bases and hit eight home, putting up a .316/.437/.491 line in his lone season with SE Missouri.

Fun fact: Of SEMO’s last ten MLB draft picks, six were taken by Atlanta, including Dtylan Dodd in 2021.

16.472: C Dalton Harper, JuCo

Harper is a Georgia Southern transfer, one who won national player of the year honors en route to leading Niagara to a NJCAA Division III championship. He’s committed to transfer to Penn State if he and the Braves can’t come to terms.

17.502: RHP John Damozonio, Saint Mary’s

Another senior sign, Damozonio moved into the rotation for his final year and put up a gaudy 2.59 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 83.1 innings. He throws all three fastballs, with the cutter being his out pitch, as well as a slider and changeup.

18.532: LHP Ethan Stade, Bowling Green State (Say it with me: not a state)

A senior sign that has the frame (6’4, 220) to get it done. He struggled in college, with a career 5.00 ERA, but absolutely tore it up in the MLB Draft League this summer to the tune of a 1.23 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 14.2 innings.

19.562: C Austin Fawley, Ole Miss

The fifth catcher of the class for Atlanta, Fawley’s a Kyle Schwarber-like offensive profile: low average, but can draw a walk and hit bombs all day. He had a .243/.366/.568 line for the Rebs with 36 homers and 98 RBI in his three collegiate seasons, the first being at Kentucky. He was one of the team’s most reliable power hitters, coming in third in slug while allowing only one passed ball for the season.

20.592: RHP Nile Adcock, Kentucky.

Per Kentucky head coach Nick Mingione, he’s got three pitches he can throw for strikes and Mingione wasn’t afraid to deploy him against either lefties or righties. He finished his Kentucky career with 74 strikeouts in 53.2 innings, along with only five home runs allowed. His 12.5 K/9 is the fourth-best rate in UK history.

Fun fact: Nile is the second cousin of Augusta broadcaster (and friend of Braves Today) Noah Adcock-Howeth.

What was Atlanta trying to do here?

While every draft class is different, this one felt remarkably consistent from start to finish.

The Braves weren’t chasing immediate organizational needs. They weren’t trying to fill a hole at shortstop or find the next fifth starter. Instead, they drafted the same way they’ve operated for years: identify players with loud tools, create as much financial flexibility as possible early in the draft, and trust one of baseball’s better player development systems to unlock the rest.

A few themes emerged almost immediately.

The first was athleticism. Whether it was AJ Gracia and Carter Beck in the first round or later selections like Ryne Barker, Atlanta repeatedly targeted players with physical traits that simply can’t be taught. Bat speed. Running ability. Arm strength. Projection. Those are the types of bets this front office has become increasingly comfortable making.

The second was youth. Several of Atlanta’s prep selections either reclassified into this draft class or are among the youngest players available. That’s a calculated gamble. Younger players often require more patience, but they also offer more developmental runway. The Braves clearly believe their system is equipped to maximize that extra time.

Pitching was another obvious priority. Ten of Atlanta’s 21 selections were pitchers, and several of the most intriguing arms, including Kaiden McCarthy, Jensen Hirschkorn, Cole Dennis, Tyson Grulkowski, and Cole Dorland, fit the same general profile: projectable frames, loud stuff, and plenty of room to improve. None are finished products, but that’s exactly the point.

Even the geographic footprint was interesting. Atlanta repeatedly dipped into cold-weather states and provinces like Wisconsin, Vermont, and British Columbia, where players often receive fewer high-level reps than prospects from traditional baseball hotbeds. That doesn’t necessarily make them better prospects, but it can create inefficiencies for organizations willing to bet on projection over polish.

Finally, there’s the bonus pool strategy. The Braves’ willingness to save money with their two first-round selections wasn’t about being conservative—it was about creating opportunities later in the draft. Those savings allowed Atlanta to take legitimate swings on prep players who likely wouldn’t have been available otherwise because of their signing demands.

Whether this class ultimately produces stars won’t be known for years. But taken together, these 21 selections paint a clear picture of what Atlanta values: athleticism, projection, player development, and the confidence to trust its own evaluations over conventional wisdom.

So, what now?

Atlanta has until July 27th at 5:00 PM to sign their picks. I expect most of them to sign, with the toughest (and most expensive) being Hirschkorn in the 3rd. LSU guys are always the toughest to get to break their commitment, mainly because the Tigers will shell out the cash to get their kids to campus.

did an outstanding job introducing many of the players who fit Atlanta’s draft tendencies, while I tried to focus more on how Ronit Shah, Alex Anthopoulos, and the rest of the front office typically approach the draft. The names change every year. The philosophy doesn’t.

Now that all 20 selections have been made, it’s worth stepping back and asking a different question.

Not, “Did the Braves draft the right players?” That’s a question we won’t be able to answer for another four or five years.

Instead, ask this: Did the Braves execute the strategy they appeared to enter the weekend with?

Looking at this class from top to bottom, I think the answer is a resounding yes.

Let’s talk about it.

The Blueprint Was Visible Before the Draft Began

Before the first pick was announced Sunday night, we had a pretty good idea what Atlanta wanted to accomplish.

The Braves entered the draft with two significant advantages. Thanks to Drake Baldwin’s Rookie of the Year season, they owned an extra first-round pick through the Prospect Promotion Incentive program. Combined with selecting inside the top 10 for the first time in years, Atlanta suddenly had far more bonus pool flexibility than it typically enjoys.

That flexibility wasn’t valuable because it allowed the Braves to spend more money, but rather because it allowed them to spend that money differently.

Coming into the weekend, I expected Atlanta to do four things:

• Add impact talent early.

• Use underslot deals to create financial flexibility.

• Attack high-upside prep talent in the middle rounds.

• Continue drafting players whose strengths align with the organization’s player development system.

By the end of Sunday evening, they had checked every box.

The First Round Was About More Than Two Players

At first glance, AJ Gracia and Carter Beck look like two very different selections.

Gracia is one of the most accomplished position players in the class. His three-year ACC production showed both contact and power proficiency, but there is also some work ahead on reducing passivity in the batter’s box.

Encouraging their guys to hit strikes hard? That’s exactly the kind of bet Atlanta has become increasingly comfortable making.

The Braves aren’t drafting the player Gracia is today. They’re drafting the player they believe he’ll become three or four years from now.

Beck, meanwhile, represented the other half of the equation.

While he’s an outstanding prospect in his own right, his expected bonus also created meaningful financial flexibility later in the draft. Rather than maximizing one individual selection, the Braves maximized the value of the entire class.

That’s the part of the draft that often gets overlooked.

Carter Beck wasn’t simply Carter Beck.

He was also the mechanism that allowed Atlanta to keep making aggressive bets later in the draft.

Then the Strategy Revealed Itself

Once the draft reached Day 2, the blueprint became impossible to miss.

RHP Kaiden McCarthy.

RHP Jensen Hirschkorn.

RHP Cole Dennis.

RHP Tyson Grulkowski.

3B Ryne Barker.

RHP Cole Dorland.

Those are expensive, high-upside prep bets that many organizations simply don’t have the financial flexibility to make, especially late in day one and early in day two.

The Braves didn’t save money for the sake of saving money.

They saved money because they already knew where they wanted to spend it.

That has become one of the defining characteristics of Atlanta’s draft strategy. Every pick influences the next one. Every signing bonus affects the rest of the class. The front office isn’t evaluating players in isolation. It’s building an entire talent portfolio.

Viewed through that lens, the first round makes even more sense.

The Braves Bet On Their Biggest Strength

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this class is just how much confidence Atlanta has in its own player development.

Look at the demographics:

Ten pitchers.

Five high school arms.

Several athletic position players with significant developmental upside.

Rather than chasing polished finished products, the Braves repeatedly selected players they believe can become more than they currently are.

That’s a reflection of an organization that trusts its coaches.

We’ve seen Atlanta improve swing decisions with young hitters. We’ve seen pitchers add velocity, reshape arsenals, and develop entirely new pitches. The Braves clearly believe those aren’t isolated success stories anymore. They’re organizational strengths.

This draft doubled down on that belief.

Quietly Addressing Organizational Depth

One thing that also stood out to me was the attention paid to catchers.

Jack Brenner.

Jacob Jarrell.

Dominic Kibler.

Dalton Harper.

Austin Fawley.

Adding five catchers in one draft isn’t accidental.

The Braves have consistently shown they value depth at one of baseball’s most demanding positions, and after graduating Drake Baldwin and having virtually no organizational depth behind him, replenishing that pipeline makes a great deal of sense.

The same can be said for the pitching staff.

You can never have enough arms, and Atlanta once again acted like an organization that understands exactly that.

The Draft Isn’t Won In July

Every July, ‘draft gurus’ rush to hand out draft grades.

I understand why. It’s fun! Who doesn’t want to dunk on the Mets for taking a guy with 14 career college innings in the first round?

But history has shown just how unreliable those grades really are.

The Braves have been criticized for “reaches” that eventually became outstanding selections; just look at last year’s first-round selection of Tate Southisene, who is now a Top 100 prospect.

They’ve also watched universally praised prospects around baseball fail to develop.

That’s the nature of the draft.

We’ll spend the next several years finding out whether AJ Gracia becomes a middle-of-the-order force. Whether Carter Beck reaches his ceiling. Whether one of those prep pitchers blossoms into the next great Braves pitching success story.

Those answers simply don’t exist today.

What does exist is the process, and from that standpoint, it’s difficult to argue Atlanta deviated from its blueprint at all.

The Braves entered this draft with a clear plan:

• Acquire impact talent early.

• Manipulate the bonus pool.

• Turn financial flexibility into additional upside.

• Trust one of baseball’s strongest player development systems to do the rest.

Whether this class ultimately produces stars won’t be known for years.

But if your goal was to evaluate whether the Braves executed the strategy they appeared to bring into draft weekend, I’d say they accomplished exactly what they set out to do.

(Coming tomorrow: scouting reports on all 21 selections)

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The game turned in the top of the 9th.

Tied at three each, both teams were prepared to use their leverage relievers to close this one out. Facing lefty JoJo Romero, Ozzie Albies got the rally started with a one-out double to left. After advancing to third on a Matt Olson groundout, things then got weird.

Michael Harris II was ‘hit’ by an up-and-in fastball, a sinker on an 0-2 count, that was upheld after review. Cardinals manager Oli Marmol was apoplectic, as this wasn’t the first call of the day to go against St. Louis, and was ejected from the contest.

But Harris made the most of it, hitting the jets on a potential inning-ending ground ball to short. With strong-armed Masyn Winn realizing late that he wouldn’t be able to get the ball to the bag ahead of Harris, he pivoted and fired towards first…but right into the home dugout. Ozzie trotted home as the winning run, and Raisel Iglesias closed this one out with two groundouts and a strikeout for his 19th save of the season (in 20 chances).

Today’s Player of the Game

For the first time in his career, it’s Brewer Hicklen.

The outfielder was called up on Saturday after an injury to Mike Yastrzemski and showed the same penchant for clutch hitting that produced the walkoff run for Triple-A Gwinnett on Friday night.

Hicklen finished today’s game with two hits, a ground ball through the left side in the 4th and a run-scoring double to left-center in the 6th. That second hit represented both his first extra-base hit and his first RBI in the majors, despite having debuted in 2022 and getting into ten MLB games across the last four seasons.

Said Hicklen after the game, “It’s such a blessing. I think back to the journey that it’s taken to get here and really can’t put into words how thankful I am for the Braves organization.” Hicklen explained that as an Alabama native, he grew up as a Braves fan and this is the culmination of a childhood dream to put on the uniform.

With Mike Yastrzemski’s elbow issue leaving his return timeline unknown, Hicklen’s going to get at least a few more starts before potentially being optioned back down to Gwinnett.

What You’ll Be Talking About

The ugliness of this game.

I’ve covered baseball for six years and watched it for nearly 40 because I truly enjoy this game, and there’s nothing sweeter than a well-played, close battle between two teams.

This was not that.

The Cardinals committed two errors today, with St. Louis losing the game more so than Atlanta winning it. The Braves had an ineffective opener in Danny Young (0.2IP, 1H, 2BB, 1ER) ahead of JR Ritchie, who actually pitched well with just one run on one hit and two walks in 4.1 innings. The Braves went 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded 12 on base, while twelve total pitchers got into the game for the two teams combined.

But a win is a win, and the Braves enter the All-Star Break fifteen games over .500 at 55-40, as well as two games up on Philadelphia in the NL East. They looked sluggish today (their last day off was June 29th) and need the extended break before the final sprint to the postseason.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are back in action on Friday, at home against the Texas Rangers at 7:15 PM.

Not because they drafted AJ Gracia at No. 9. And not because they surprised some evaluators by taking Carter Beck at No. 26.

Because they did both while quietly executing the exact strategy many expected all along.

Atlanta didn’t simply draft five players on the first day of the MLB Draft; they bought themselves five different bets on impact talent.

Let’s talk about it.

The surprise wasn’t the strategy

The Braves used both first-round selections on college outfielders.

That’s unusual enough on its own. Atlanta had never selected two college outfielders in the first round of the same draft, and before Sunday had only taken one college outfielder in the first round in the entire modern draft era, over 60 years.

But that’s only half the story. The rest of the story is why they were willing to do it.

Neither AJ Gracia nor Carter Beck represented major reaches relative to the industry, but both projected as players who could sign below slot value.

And importantly, the Braves made it clear afterward that neither pick was simply about creating financial flexibility.

Want to hear Shah explain the Gracia and Beck selections in his own words? Watch his full post-draft media availability below.

“We’ve had AJ on our radar for more than a year now,” Braves vice president of amateur scouting Ronit Shah said after the draft. “Our scouts were telling me, ‘This should be our guy next year,’” adding that Gracia had long been viewed internally as a potential top-five or top-seven talent before the season.

That matters because MLB’s bonus pool doesn’t reward winning the draft on paper.

It rewards allocating money better than everyone else.

Two picks funded three more

This has become one of the defining characteristics of Atlanta’s draft operation under Ronit Shah:

Target polished college players early, create bonus pool flexibility, then use those savings to attack prep players other clubs can't afford to sign.

That’s exactly what happened Saturday.

Gracia gives Atlanta one of the better pure hit tools in the class, and Shah repeatedly pointed to the traits the organization values most in advanced hitters.

“He’s hit everywhere he’s gone,” Shah said. “He’s always shown such an advanced ability to control the zone. He knows what pitches to swing at. He knows what pitches he can hit for power.”

Beck provides another advanced bat while likely creating significant financial flexibility, but the Braves also believe there’s considerably more upside than the public rankings suggest.

Shah described Beck as a “no doubt center fielder” with “some of the best power in the draft class,” adding that Atlanta believes there’s still “untapped potential” because of his multi-sport background and relatively unconventional development path in Canada.

Neither selection exists in a vacuum. They exist because of what came next.

Just don’t mistake that for saying the Braves settled.

Shah’s comments afterward made it clear Atlanta believed it landed two players it genuinely coveted while also preserving the flexibility to chase upside later in the draft.

Betting on upside

Once Atlanta created room in the bonus pool, the draft changed. Once Atlanta created bonus pool flexibility, it could start shopping where many other clubs couldn't.

They added:

• Caden McCarthy, a 17-year-old Vermont right-hander whose fastball already reaches 99 mph.

• Jensen Hirschkorn, a 6-foot-7 California righty with one of the highest ceilings in the class and an LSU commitment likely to require a significant bonus.

• Cole Dennis, another young prep arm with premium velocity, projection, and years of development still ahead.

Every one of those pitchers fits the organizational profile Atlanta has targeted for years.

Young, even for their demographic.

Projectable.

More development ahead than most of their peers.

That’s also consistent with how Shah described Atlanta’s evaluations more broadly. Asked about Beck, he repeatedly emphasized athleticism, makeup, and remaining development rather than present production, themes that have become increasingly common throughout Atlanta’s recent drafts.

The Braves aren’t trying to buy finished products; they’re trying to buy years of development.

Evaluating the draft the right way

This is where draft grades often miss the point.

If you evaluate Carter Beck as simply “Player X selected at Pick 26,” it’s reasonable to question the value.

But if you evaluate Carter Beck as “the player whose signing bonus helped fund three premium prep pitchers,” the calculation changes completely.

The Braves weren’t making five independent selections; they were managing one interconnected bonus pool.

That’s why this draft can’t be judged one pick at a time. It has to be judged as a portfolio.

The bigger picture

Will all five players work out? Almost certainly not; no draft class does.

But Atlanta didn’t leave Day One trying to maximize the value of every individual selection.

It tried to maximize the value of the entire draft, and that’s a different objective.

And if the Braves successfully sign the prep pitchers they targeted, Sunday’s draft won’t be remembered for taking two college outfielders in the first round.

It'll be remembered not for Gracia or Beck individually, but for what those two selections made possible.

Want to go deeper?

We broke down all five Day One selections, discussed why the Braves approached the draft this way, and gave scouting reports on each player in the latest episode of the Braves Today Podcast.

Last year it was Briggs McKenzie, who signed for $3 million after being selected in the fourth round. In 2023 it was Garrett Baumann, who received a $747,000 bonus. Names like Dixon Williams and Herick Hernandez fit the mold of recent college money-saving options in the fourth round as well.

The pattern has become fairly clear. Atlanta has consistently used rounds four through six to take swings on high-upside prep talent, and with another strong bonus pool this year, I would not be surprised if they follow that script again.

With that in mind, here are a few names on both the college and prep side that I would keep a close eye on.

2026 Braves Today Draft Guide

• Part 1: 2026 MLB Draft Primer: Everything You Need to Know

• Part 2: How the Braves Approach the MLB Draft

• Part 3: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 9

• Part 4: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 26

• Part 5: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 48

• Part 6: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 84

  ---

Jason DeCaro, RHP, North Carolina

First up is North Carolina right-hander Jason DeCaro, the first of two Tar Heels on this list. After reclassifying and arriving on campus in 2024, he quickly developed into one of the more dependable starters in college baseball. Somehow, he is still just barely 20 years old. Across three seasons, DeCaro made 53 starts and finished with a 26-7 record and a 3.46 ERA. His best season came in 2026, when he posted a 2.87 ERA, a 24.0% strikeout rate, and an 11-3 record.

Physically, he checks just about every box. At 6’5” and 230 pounds, he looks every bit the part of a professional starter. His fastball usually sits in the low-to-mid 90s, but he can reach back to 98 mph when needed. He complements it with a high-spin slider and curveball, with an improving changeup as well.

I would not be surprised if a professional organization eventually introduces either a cutter or another fastball variation to further expand his arsenal. He has already shown the ability to command multiple pitches, and that foundation gives him a high floor.

Ryan Lynch, RHP, North Carolina

DeCaro’s running mate at North Carolina is Ryan Lynch. While DeCaro feels like the safer bet, Lynch may actually possess the higher ceiling. He stands 6’3” and weighs around 230 pounds with plenty of strength already on his frame.

As a freshman, Lynch worked primarily out of the bullpen, posting a 2.93 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 27.2% strikeout rate, and 9.4% walk rate. After moving into the starting rotation this season, some of those numbers dipped, including a 4.21 ERA, but the raw stuff still jumps off the page.

A lot of Lynch’s profile is built on projection, but the upside is easy to see. He already throws two distinct fastballs, featuring both a sinking two-seamer and a flatter four-seamer that consistently sit in the mid-90s. The movement difference between the two keeps hitters uncomfortable, and his sweeper flashes as a legitimate plus pitch. He has also continued working on a changeup.

He may not have DeCaro’s résumé today, but if everything clicks, Lynch has the type of arsenal that could make him the better professional pitcher down the road.

Chris Rembert, 2B/OF, Auburn

One player I highlighted before the college season was Auburn’s Chris Rembert, and I still think he makes a lot of sense for Atlanta in this range.

Rembert dealt with some injuries this season that limited his power production, but his hit tool never disappeared. He hit .343 in back-to-back seasons. As a freshman, he posted a 1.022 OPS with 10 home runs and 14 doubles. This season, his OPS dipped to .858 with four home runs and 13 doubles, though he still struck out only 14.7% of the time. His walk rate did fall from the previous year, dropping to 7.2%.

He has a compact swing that creates more power than you might expect. There is enough strength and bat speed here that scouts can dream on a .300, .400, .500 offensive profile if everything develops. Defensively, second base remains his natural home, but his athleticism has allowed him to move into the outfield as well. That versatility only adds to his appeal.

(Editor: I’m in favor of Rembert, obviously - LLC)

Kevin Roberts Jr., OF, Jackson Prep

If you enjoy betting on upside in the draft, Kevin Roberts Jr is probably your guy. The Mississippi prep outfielder was teammates with Konnor Griffin and has been on scouting radars since his freshman year. At 6’5” and roughly 220 pounds, Roberts Jr is one of the more physically gifted athletes in this class.

Despite his size, he moves extremely well and creates some of the loudest contact in the draft. The ball absolutely jumps off his bat, and he has shown an ability to handle premium velocity. The next step is simply getting the ball in the air more consistently. With his raw power, elevating more often could unlock another level offensively.

He was also a legitimate pitching prospect, giving him one of the strongest outfield arms in the class. While right field seems like the long-term fit, he has enough athleticism to handle any of the three outfield spots. There is certainly risk here, but there is also legitimate star upside. That is exactly the type of profile I would be willing to gamble on in this part of the draft.

Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha

After reclassifying, Logan Schmidt will be one of the youngest players available in this year’s draft. The California native is committed to LSU, a program that has done an excellent job getting talented recruits to campus, so buying him away from college may not be easy. That said, there will be plenty of professional teams willing to make the attempt.

Schmidt stands 6’4” and 220 pounds with an already impressive frame. His fastball works comfortably in the mid 90s and has touched 97 mph, and there may still be another jump in velocity as he continues to mature physically. His lower release point creates plenty of running action on the fastball, and he has already shown encouraging feel for a changeup, slider, and curveball.

He already throws plenty of strikes, so the command is there. If a professional pitching development group can sharpen those secondary offerings over the next few years, Schmidt has the ingredients to become one of the better left-handed pitching prospects in baseball.

Martin Shelar, OF, Marist

If there is one word that defines Martin Shelar, it is power. The Marist High School outfielder consistently produces exit velocities north of 100 mph with both wood and metal bats. At the Draft Combine, he reached as high as 115 mph.

His setup is fairly narrow and upright, but everything after that is quiet, efficient, and direct. He gets excellent lower-half rotation into the swing, creating easy leverage and natural loft on the pull side. That helped him lead the country in home runs this spring. What stands out just as much is the approach. Shelar struck out only 13% of the time on the prep circuit and has built a reputation for controlling the strike zone while avoiding empty swings.

He has spent time in center field, but as he continues to fill out, right field feels like the better long-term fit thanks to his above-average arm. Maybe this is the Georgia native in me talking, but I would absolutely love to see this hometown kid end up in the Braves organization.

Maxx Yehl, LHP, West Virginia

If you thought I was done talking about physically imposing pitchers, think again.

West Virginia’s Maxx Yehl stands 6’6” and weighs roughly 235 pounds. After spending his first two collegiate seasons in the bullpen, he transitioned into the rotation this year and turned in one of the best seasons in college baseball.

Over his first two seasons, Yehl made 41 relief appearances while posting back-to-back sub-4.00 ERAs. Once he moved into the rotation in 2026, everything took another step forward. He recorded career-best marks with a 2.13 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 27.9% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate. His fastball sits in the low 90s with heavy sink, but his extension and release point make it play much harder than the radar gun suggests. Both his slider and curveball flash as above-average offerings, and there is room to continue developing a reliable changeup.

This is an intriguing profile because the success comes more from movement, deception, and command than overwhelming velocity. I think there is more here than the raw stuff might initially suggest.

Prediction: Martin Shelar, OF, Marist

Atlanta has never been afraid to bet on power, and if Shelar is still on the board here, his combination of strength, approach, and long-term upside could be difficult to pass up.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 8:15 PM ET

• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis

• TV: Apple TV (exclusive)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
RF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• The slumping Dominic Smith moves down to the #8 spot in the order, while Mike Yastrzemski, fresh off hitting a 9th-inning grand slam in Pittsburgh, takes Dom’s #6 spot.

St. Louis Cardinals Lineup

2B JJ Wetherholt
DH Iván Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
LF Nelson Velázquez
1B Alec Burleson
SS Masyn Winn
CF José Fermín
3B Blaze Jordan
C Pedro Páges

Quick thoughts:

• Expect Busch Stadium to be a bit louder than usual when JJ Wetherholt leads off in the top of the first - reports broke today that he and the organization have come to an agreement on an 8-year, $112.5M contract extension.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (9-6, 2.27 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.27 ERA / 3.47 xERA / 2.89 FIP

• 28.6% K / 6.1% BB / 22.4% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 40% slider, 32% sinker, 27% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 39% slider, 16% changeup, 1% sinker

What to watch:

• For Chris Sale, it’s Chris Sale - the package is pretty good already. My biggest question is whether he’ll get the quality start or not, as he’s gone 5.2 innings in three of his last five outings.

• Being serious a moment, he missed the Cardinals when these two teams faced off last week, so if there’s any game to feel good about this weekend, it’s likely this one.

Who to watch:

• Only two Cardinals have ever seen Sale in a game, and it didn’t go well: Lars Nootbaar is 0-3 and Nelson Velásquez is 0-1.

Opposing Starter: RHP Kyle Leahy (7-4, 3.86 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.86 ERA / 5.56 xERA / 4.10 FIP

  • This discrepancy appears to be that he’s not walking a lot of guys (8.7%) or giving up tons of home runs (2.4%, below the league average of 3.1%), but his average exit velocity allowed of 91.8 mph is 1st percentile in baseball and his hard-hit rate of 50.4% is 2nd percentile in baseball.

• 19.3 K% / 8.7 BB% / 10.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (28%, 94.1 mph)

• Curveball (16%, 82.8 mph)

• Slider (16%, 89.2 mph) ←this is really a cutter

• Sinker (13%, 93.9 mph)

• Changeup (13%, 88.4 mph)

• Sweeper (13%, 84.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-seam dominant mix with common tendencies - more fastballs when behind in the count, more curveballs with two strikes. If you think of the slider as a cutter, the increased usage when behind in the count makes sense.

vs RHH: A standard fastball-dominant mix, with more four-seamers and “sliders” when behind and increased usage of the changeup and curveball when ahead.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Not a ton of experience on Atlanta’s lineup against Kyle Leahy, and the hits are few and far between - Joey Bart is 1-3, while Austin Riley is 2-4 and Dominic Smith is 1-2.

Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Tyler Kinley is back from the paternity list, who likely won’t get any additional dad strength from the experience (this was their third child), while the leverage trio of Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, and Dylan Lee did not enter Thursday’s game and are working on a day’s rest.

  • Iglesias started to toss in the top of the 9th in anticipation of a save situation, but he sat down once Yaz hit his grand slam. I’m assuming he avoided getting to the point where he was firing actual bullets.

Used recently:

• Lefty Danny Young threw two pitches last night, which shouldn’t stop him from returning tonight if needed. Victor Mederos and James Karinchak are likely on the “stay away from if possible” list given their usage last night, but not confirmed to be down for the day.

Potential limitations:

• Dylan Dodd threw in the final two games of the Pirates series and is likely wearing turf shoes for this one.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta has the pieces they need to close a win tonight, if it comes down to it.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Several of the leverage arms, including closer Riley O’Brien, leverage lefty JoJo Romero, and setup man George Soriano have had at least one day off (or five, in the case of Soriano) and should be good to go for tonight’s opener.

Used recently:

• Longman Matt Svanson has gotten into three of the last five games, but his 14 pitches on Thursday won’t preclude him from appearing tonight.

Potential Limitations

• It’s very likely that Luis Gastelum’s back-to-back will keep him out of tonight’s game, as will the 35 pitches Gordon Graceffo threw last night (as well as the 48 in three days and the 73 over the last four).

Quick takeaway:

• The Cardinals have the leverage arms for a win, but might need to find innings in a blowout.

What to Watch Today

• Leahy has righted the ship in the last few starts, allowing just one earned run across 16.1 innings against the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Cubs. That came with fourteen strikeouts to seven walks, so there were opportunities to score, but ones those teams couldn’t take advantage of. Can Atlanta’s offense cash in those baserunners?

Final Thought

Braves are favored in the finale, as they are in virtually every Chris Sale start, with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of eight runs. Can the Braves give Sale some run support, like they did last time out, or will this be a repeat of June and he’ll be on the wrong side of a 2-1 decision?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

That said, we can still get a good feel for the type of players likely to be available in this range by looking at consensus mock drafts and prospect rankings. Some of these names could come off the board earlier if a team wants to cut an underslot deal, while others could slide because of bonus demands. Regardless, each of these prospects fits the profile Atlanta has targeted in recent years to some capacity.

It's also worth keeping the draft trends we covered earlier in this series in mind. The extra first-round pick and bonus pool money certainly change the equation with those patterns, but in the best way possible. Even with the added flexibility, I still expect at least three of Atlanta’s top five selections to come in under slot to help maximize the overall draft class.

So let’s get into it.

2026 Braves Today Draft Guide

• Part 1: 2026 MLB Draft Primer: Everything You Need to Know

• Part 2: How the Braves Approach the MLB Draft

• Part 3: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 9

• Part 4: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 26

• Part 5: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 48

• Part 6: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 84

  ---

Connor Comeau, SS, Anderson

Historically, this is a range where Atlanta leans heavily toward the college ranks, so I’ve only included one prep player. If the Braves decide to get aggressive thanks to the extra bonus pool money, though, Connor Comeau is someone I could absolutely see them taking a chance on.

The Austin, Texas native is committed to Texas A&M and is one of the youngest players in the entire draft class. At first glance, his frame looks unfinished. Standing 6’4” and roughly 180 pounds, there is plenty of room left for physical development. This is exactly the type of project professional organizations love to get their hands on.

Comeau has a simple, repeatable swing that already generates impressive bat speed. As he continues to mature physically and learns to elevate the ball more consistently, there is legitimate power upside waiting to be unlocked. He also controls the strike zone well and doesn’t expand it often, giving him a solid offensive foundation.

The biggest question revolves around his defensive home. He played shortstop in high school, but his size likely pushes him to third base or potentially a corner outfield spot as he climbs the professional ranks. Wherever he ultimately lands defensively, the bat is what makes this profile intriguing.

Jack Radel, RHP, Notre Dame

Jack Radel has one of the more unique paths in this draft class. Originally from South Dakota, not exactly a baseball hotbed, he quietly developed into one of the better college arms available while pitching at Notre Dame.

The junior was a three-year starter for the Fighting Irish, finishing his career with a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His biggest jump came this season. After posting strikeout rates below 21% during his first two years, Radel exploded for a 32.5% strikeout rate in 2026 while maintaining an elite 6.2% walk rate. He also finished with career-best marks in ERA (3.29) and FIP (3.22).

Standing 6’5” and over 210 pounds, Radel has the frame every organization looks for in a starter. His roughly seven feet of extension makes a mid-to-upper 90s fastball play even better than the radar gun suggests. He complements it with a cutter, breaking ball, and a developing changeup.

This feels like one of those pitchers Atlanta would love to get its hands on. The raw ingredients are already there, and few organizations have a better recent track record of maximizing profiles like this than Atlanta.

Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas

Before transferring to Texas, Aiden Robbins had already established himself as one of the best mid-major hitters in college baseball. The jump to the SEC is never easy, but Robbins handled it about as well as anyone could have hoped.

After slashing .422/.537/.652 with a 1.189 OPS during his sophomore season at Seton Hall, Robbins followed it up by slashing .333/.426/.696 with a 1.122 OPS with the step up in competition. His strikeout rate did climb to 22.9%, which is hardly surprising given the massive jump in pitching quality, but he still paired it with a healthy 13.7% walk rate.

The biggest development was the power. After hitting six home runs in each of his previous two seasons, Robbins launched 24 this year for the Longhorns. He has consistently produced exit velocities north of 110 mph, showing the type of raw power scouts dream about. He does a good job laying off fastballs outside the zone, although advanced breaking balls can still give him trouble. If a professional organization can tighten that up, there is a lot to like about this offensive profile.

Caden Sorrell, OF, Texas A&M

Caden Sorrell has been on draft radars for years. After earning Freshman All-SEC honors in 2024, injuries derailed much of his 2025 season. This spring, he reminded everyone why he entered the year as a Golden Spikes Award candidate.

Sorrell put together an outstanding season, slashing .341/.434/.743 with a 1.177 OPS while collecting 23 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 67 runs scored. However, there are still some questions. High fastballs and quality spin have given him trouble at times, contributing to a 23.0% strikeout rate. The encouraging part is those struggles became less noticeable as the season progressed, suggesting he was already making adjustments.

Defensively, Sorrell has spent most of his career in the corners but has shown enough athleticism to handle center field when needed. At the plate, the bat speed is obvious, and the power should continue to play as he develops. If he can become just a little more selective early in counts, I think he has a chance to move through the Braves system in a hurry.

Carson Tinney, C, Texas

Carson Tinney may honestly be one of my favorite fits for Atlanta in this range. After beginning his career at Notre Dame, the Colorado native transferred to Texas looking to compete for a national championship, and his production translated immediately.

Following an ACL injury that shortened his freshman season, Tinney returned in 2025 and posted a ridiculous .348/.498/.753 slash line with 17 home runs. Many hitters see their numbers take a step back after moving into the SEC. Tinney did not follow that trend, finishing with a 1.171 OPS while blasting 22 home runs. Even more impressive was his combination of patience and power, walking at a 19.2% clip while striking out just 23.1% of the time.

The raw power is among the best in this draft class. His 6’3”, 220-pound frame generates easy juice, and while there are still questions about how consistently he’ll handle quality spin, the upside is obvious. Behind the plate, Tinney owns a strong throwing arm and projects as at least an average defensive catcher. Atlanta has done a tremendous job developing catchers over the years, and this feels like another profile that fits their strengths exceptionally well.

Wes Mendes, LHP, Florida State

The final player on this list is Florida State left-hander Wes Mendes. After beginning his career at Ole Miss primarily as a reliever, Mendes transitioned into a full-time starter with the Seminoles over the last two seasons. This spring, he stepped into the role of staff ace and delivered across the board.

In 16 starts, Mendes posted a 2.81 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, a 32.6% strikeout rate, and just a 6.5% walk rate, all career-best marks. His fastball typically sits in the low-to-mid 90s, but he has touched 96 mph. While it isn’t an overpowering offering by today’s standards, it plays well because of his command and sequencing. His best secondary pitch is a plus changeup that tunnels beautifully off the fastball, and he also mixes both a slider and curveball.

There’s still room to dream. Improving the fastball and sharpening the breaking balls could unlock another level, but the foundation already resembles that of a polished college starter. It would not surprise me one bit if Atlanta viewed him as another pitcher capable of outperforming where he is drafted.

Prediction: Carson Tinney, C, Texas

Catchers with this combination of power, patience, and defensive upside rarely last this long, and Tinney feels like the type of college bat Atlanta has consistently valued.

Thanks to Drake Baldwin’s National League Rookie of the Year campaign last season, the Prospect Promotion Incentive program awarded Atlanta an extra first-round selection. When everything settled, that pick landed at No. 26 overall.

Having two first-round picks is a significant opportunity. Atlanta gets another chance to add a player many evaluators consider a top-50 talent while continuing to strengthen what has quietly become one of baseball’s fastest-rising farm systems.

Once you get outside the top 10 or 15 selections, the number of realistic possibilities grows in a hurry. I will focus on players who have either been connected to Atlanta or prospects I genuinely believe fit what the Braves value, but there is always a chance the eventual selection is someone not mentioned here.

2026 Braves Today Draft Guide

• Part 1: 2026 MLB Draft Primer: Everything You Need to Know

• Part 2: How the Braves Approach the MLB Draft

• Part 3: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 9

• Part 4: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 26

• Part 5: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 48

• Part 6: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 84

  ---

Ben Blair, RHP, Liberty

Ben Blair is one of the better college pitchers in this draft class, even if he hails from a mid-major. The Liberty right-hander quietly put together one of the stronger seasons in college baseball and feels like the type of arm Atlanta has targeted in the past.

Blair posted a career 3.58 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. His 2026 season was his best yet, finishing with a 3.53 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, a 28.9% strikeout rate, and an outstanding 4.3% walk rate with the Flames.

He is not someone who lives at 99 miles per hour, but he comfortably works in the low- to mid-90s and can reach 97/98 when he needs to. His delivery is a little unconventional, and when you pair that with a lower release point, it gives hitters fits at the plate. Blair attacks with a sinking fastball, cutter, slider, and a quality changeup.

Some evaluators believe he could eventually land in the bullpen, but I think there is more starter upside than he gets credit for. Put him in an organization with Atlanta’s track record of pitcher development, add another pitch or squeeze out another mile per hour or two of velocity, and there is plenty to dream on.

Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah

Yes, I may be a little biased here, but Trevor Condon out of Etowah High School is one of my favorite targets in this entire draft class. And before anyone asks, no, he is not related to Charlie Condon.

Condon has always been known for using the entire field and for his elite speed, but over the past year, he has started to develop real power as well. At 5’11” and around 180 pounds, he is not the biggest player on the field, but there is still room for physical development. He also brings that legitimate plus speed to the basepaths, and with continued refinement to his routes, I have little doubt he can stick in center field.

What stands out most is how he plays. There is energy, confidence, and emotion in everything he does without it feeling forced. It may rub some folks the wrong way, but it’s hard to find players willing to play with that kind of passion for the game. Those qualities can change the momentum of a game just as much as the physical tools themselves.

He is committed to Tennessee, but I would be surprised if he ever steps on campus. Personally, I think there is a real chance another team takes him before No. 26, so if Atlanta wants him, they may need a little help from the board. Shoutout Woodstock, Georgia.

Daniel Jackson, C/OF, Georgia

For the second time in three years, the Golden Spikes Award winner hails from the University of Georgia. After Charlie Condon won in 2024, Daniel Jackson took home the award this year for the Diamond Dawgs, along with the Dick Howser Trophy and Buster Posey Award as well. When you consider that he was the starting catcher for Georgia this year, Jackson posted one of the most impressive college seasons we have seen in recent seasons.

After posting a 1.059 OPS at Wofford in 2024, the Atlanta native transferred to UGA where he would make an impact but would not be nearly what we would see this past season. During his Golden Spikes Award-winning season, Daniel Jackson slashed .379/.473/.803 with a 1.276 OPS, 20.1% strikeout rate, and 13.8% walk rate. He became just the third player to win the SEC Triple Crown, and the sixth ever player in college baseball with a 25-home run, 25-steal season, the first ever as a catcher.

If there is one problem with Jackson, it’s deciding just where he profiles in the field at the next level. In 2025, he spent most games in the outfield (21), while also getting time behind the plate (13) and first base (2) as well. In 2026, however, he became the Bulldogs’ everyday catcher. He certainly can stick behind the plate, but some teams may preserve his legs by letting him spend more time in the outfield rather than catching every day. Regardless of where he plays, I believe the bat will play at the next level.

Rocco Maniscalco, SS, Oxford

After reclassifying, Rocco Maniscalco enters this draft as one of the youngest players available. The Oxford, Alabama shortstop is committed to Mississippi State, but after the way his stock has climbed over the past few weeks, it is becoming harder to imagine him making it to campus.

He turned plenty of heads at the combine, recording multiple throws across the diamond at least 97 miles per hour and multiple exit velocities north of 108 miles per hour. That is extremely impressive for a player who should be preparing for his senior year of high school, not entering the MLB.

Maniscalco is also one of the better defensive shortstops in the class and adds even more value as a switch hitter. The present power is not as advanced as some of the other prep bats, but considering his age, the projection is enormous. As he continues to mature physically and learns to elevate the ball more consistently, I think there is legitimate potential for 20 home runs and 40 doubles.

Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida

Liam Peterson is the biggest name on this list. If everything had come together consistently at Florida, he could easily have worked his way into the top 10 of this draft. Instead, he may be available right around Atlanta’s second first-round pick.

The junior right-hander started at least 15 games in each of his three seasons in Gainesville, compiling a career 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Those numbers are not eye-popping, but they are weighed down by his freshman season.

Last year he showed real progress, posting a 4.59 ERA, 4.01 FIP, a 30.2% strikeout rate, and a career-best 9.8% walk rate.

Peterson’s fastball is the calling card. It regularly reaches the upper-90s with outstanding life through the zone, and he complements it with a slider and changeup. Much like former Florida standout Hurston Waldrep, command has always been the biggest question. The encouraging part is that it has steadily improved, and if that trend continues, there is significant upside.

Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss

If Atlanta ends up taking a college pitcher at No. 26, Taylor Rabe would probably be my choice. After dealing with injuries in 2024 and barely pitching in 2025, Rabe entered this season with very little national attention. By the end of the year, he had established himself as arguably Ole Miss’ best starter. Yes, even ahead of Cade Townsend.

Across 11 starts and six relief appearances this season, Rabe posted a 3.55 ERA, 3.75 FIP, an incredible 34.2% strikeout rate, and just a 4.9% walk rate. Those are elite numbers, especially against SEC competition.

At 6’5”, he certainly looks the part on the mound. His fastball reaches the upper 90s, and he mixes in a cutter, breaking ball, and changeup. The combination of stuff, command, and pitchability took a huge step forward this season. A few months ago he was barely on anyone’s radar. Now, I would actually be surprised if he is still available when Atlanta is on the clock.

Zion Rose, OF, Louisville

The final player on this list is Louisville outfielder Zion Rose. The former catcher has transitioned into the outfield and has become one of the more electric players in the country.

In his three seasons at Louisville, he slashed .358/.438/.585 with a 1.023 OPS, 24 home runs, and 65 stolen bases. Despite an injury-filled season, he batted a whopping .417 this year across 173 plate appearances. He is notoriously difficult to strike out, as evidenced by his 8.7% strikeout rate in 2025.

Rose is one of the better pure athletes in the class. His twitch and power combination is evident the second he walks off the bus. There are some who think he could return behind the plate eventually, but odds are he will profile as a mashing corner outfielder at the next level. With that profile, Rose will need to continue to lift the ball to his pull side, where his power explodes off the screen.

Prediction: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida

Atlanta has never shied away from betting on premium stuff, and if Peterson's improved command is real, he offers arguably the highest ceiling of anyone likely to be available at No. 26.

Now comes the fun part.

It’s finally time to start breaking down the players, beginning with the ninth overall pick. This is the highest the Braves have selected since 2019, when they also owned an additional first-round pick. That year, Atlanta selected Baylor catcher Shea Langeliers at number 9 and Texas A&M shortstop Braden Shewmake at number 21.

Langeliers signed for just under $3 million, roughly $1 million below slot value, while Shewmake came in almost exactly at slot value with a $3.1 million bonus.

That draft came seven years ago, so it would be a mistake to assume Atlanta will simply repeat that formula. But it does offer insight into how the organization has approached multiple first-round picks in the past, especially when paired with the trends we've seen under Ronit Shah in recent years.

Throughout this series, I will be highlighting players that I either believe should be legitimate targets or prospects who have been connected to Atlanta over the past few months.

Let’s get into the players I believe are firmly in the mix for pick number nine.

2026 Braves Today Draft Guide

• Part 1: 2026 MLB Draft Primer: Everything You Need to Know

• Part 2: How the Braves Approach the MLB Draft

• Part 3: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 9

• Part 4: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 26

• Part 5: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 48

• Part 6: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 84

  ---

Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech

The connection between Drew Burress and the Braves is an easy one to make. He is from Warner Robins, Georgia, played his college ball at Georgia Tech, and would immediately become a hometown favorite if Atlanta called his name. But there is a lot more to like here than just the local ties.

Burress has been one of the most productive hitters in college baseball over the last three seasons. Across 179 games with the Yellow Jackets, he slashed .357/.484/.720 with a 1.204 OPS while launching 60 home runs, driving in 189 runs, and walking 38 more times than he struck out.

The biggest concern is his size. At 5’9” and 182 pounds, there are fair questions about how much more physical projection remains at 21 years old. At some point, though, production has to matter more than projection. From the day he stepped on campus, Burress has done nothing but hit for average, hit for power, and prove he belongs against top competition. He has also held his own defensively in centerfield. There simply aren't many college hitters in this class with a résumé as complete as Burress'.

Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky

Tyler Bell entered college as one of the top prep players in the country after turning down the Rays in the 2024 Draft, and he has only strengthened his draft stock during two seasons at Kentucky.

If you have followed anything I have written here or over on X, this probably will not surprise you. Tyler Bell is my favorite target for the Braves at number nine.

In 97 career games, Bell has slashed .314/.438/.556 with a .993 OPS. What really stands out to me, though, is how much he improved from his freshman to sophomore season despite dealing with a nagging injury. His batting average jumped from .296 to .343, his on-base percentage from .385 to .510, his slugging percentage from .522 to .608, and his OPS from .907 to 1.119. That kind of development is exactly what you want to see from a young player.

Bell is a switch-hitting shortstop with legitimate power from both sides of the plate. As he has matured, that has only grown as he has gotten the ball in the air more consistently. Defensively, I think he has every opportunity to remain at shortstop, although we all know athletic shortstops can slide all over the diamond if needed.

He may not have the one flashy, elite tool that jumps off the scouting report, but that is actually part of what I like most about him. To me, Bell looks like a player with 50-55 grade tools across the board and enough room for another jump as he continues to develop. There’s a remarkably well-rounded player here, and I think his ceiling is even higher than many people realize.

AJ Gracia, OF, Virginia

AJ Gracia is another player I find really intriguing, as he may have the best strike-zone judgment in the class. The left-handed hitting outfielder has consistently hit everywhere he has played, and his swing is about as pretty as you will find in this class. It’s easy to envision that left-handed swing peppering The Chop House seats for years.

Gracia spent his first two seasons at Duke before transferring to Virginia this year. Across three college seasons, he slashed .317/.459/.583 with a 1.042 OPS, 43 home runs, 160 RBIs, and 23 more walks than strikeouts. Even more impressive, every season brought noticeable improvement across nearly every offensive category, which is not always something you see from power hitters.

Gracia is an extremely patient hitter, sometimes to the point where he lets hittable pitches pass by early in counts. On the flip side, when he decides to swing, he rarely misses. His bat-to-ball skills are outstanding, and there is much more athleticism here than in the typical power-hitting corner-outfielder profile. I think there is a chance people are underselling the complete player because the power tends to grab all the headlines.

Gio Rojas, LHP, Marjory Stoneman Douglas

The lone pitcher and high school player on my list is left-hander Gio Rojas out of powerhouse Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida.

Rojas looks the part the second he steps on the mound. He stands 6’4”, weighs just under 200 pounds, and already features a fastball that consistently reaches the upper 90s. What makes that fastball even more impressive is his lower release point, making it extremely difficult to square up at the top of the strike zone. He complements the heater with a sweeper with over 16 inches of movement and a changeup in the low 80s. He has already shown the ability to throw all three pitches for strikes against hitters from either side of the plate.

The combination of present stuff, athleticism, and physical projection makes it easy to understand why teams are so high on him. If the Braves decide to bet on upside instead of a polished college bat, Rojas would certainly fit that mold. He would join a farm system with other high-ceiling prep lefties in Cam Caminiti and Briggs McKenzie.

Prediction

Prediction: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky

If I had to put my name on one player today, I would go with Tyler Bell.

There is a lot to like about every player on this list, and I would not be surprised if Atlanta ultimately went in a different direction. But Bell checks the most boxes for me. He is young for the class, has continued to improve every season, offers switch-hitting ability with power from both sides of the plate, and has a legitimate chance to stick at shortstop long term.

Most importantly, I think there is still another jump in there. Bell is already an outstanding player, but his combination of athleticism, well-rounded tools, and steady year-over-year development makes me believe his best baseball is still ahead of him.

We’ll find out soon enough if the Braves see it the same way.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Atlanta led for a large portion of this game, but it wasn’t exactly smooth sailing. The Pirates threatened in virtually every inning, requiring Bryce Elder and a parade of relievers to constantly navigate through traffic.

The Braves finally pulled away in the 9th.

With Dennis Santana on the mound for the second time this series, Matt Olson drew a leadoff walk and Drake Baldwin singled. Someone, not sure who, then made the decision to have Mauricio Dubón bunt them over. He didn’t give it away until Santana was in his pitching motion, but the sacrifice gave Atlanta two in scoring position with one out.

And then things got interesting. The Pirates intentionally walked Dominic Smith to get to Austin Riley.

Yep, they intentionally walked a guy who is hitting .183 with a .507 OPS in the last 30 games, because the guy who was due up behind him, Austin Riley, was a better matchup.

And the tough part of it is that they were right! Riley struck out on four pitches, fouling off a center-cut sinker and a slider in the same spot, before taking a slider off the plate away and swinging through one well below the zone.

I genuninely don’t know what to do with Riley at this point, other than hope that going home to Mississippi over the All-Star Break provides him the mental break he needs. Extend it a few days after the break, if needed - we can cover third for a series or two using Jorge Mateo and Mauricio Dubón.

But Mike Yastrzemski, hitting behind Riley with two outs, got up in the count 3-1 and forced Santana to come attack him. It didn’t work out. Yaz got an elevated four-seamer and demolished it, at 104.8 mph off the bat and 403 feet to right, clearing the bases for his third career grand slam.

With the lead now at five runs instead of one, the Braves sat down closer Raisel Iglesias in favor of longman Victor Mederos, who worked around a leadoff single to seal the victory (and impressed in the process, hitting 100 mph and picking up six whiffs in 11 swings).

Today’s Player of the Game

Let’s hear it for Jimmy Baseball!

The book on shortstop Jim Jarvis both entering the season and when he was first called up was that he’s going to give you some good defense, make plenty of contact, but there wasn’t much power in his game.

There’s still not much power in his game…except for one swing.

Jarvis hit his first big league homer today, getting an elevated first pitch fastball from reliever Cam Sanders and depositing it in the right-field seats at 101.7 off the bat.

Jarvis, who finished a triple shy of the cycle, credited the team’s hitting coaches and their pregame work with him after the game for his three hits. “You should have seen the BP I was taking before the game,” he told BravesVision sideline reporter Paul Byrd. “Me and Tim (Hyers), DC (assistant hitting coach Darnell Coles), and Eddie (Perez) were in there working and they got me a little feel that, y’know, worked. All the credit goes to the coaches.”

Not to be one-dimensional, Jarvis also made a difficult inning-ending double play look easy, fielding a ball on the second base side of the bag, beating the runner, and then making an off-platform throw to first.

Said Jarvis to Byrd, “I try to take deep breaths before each pitch. My heart rate’s still going; I’ve got a lot of adrenaline out there. (But I’m) just trying to slow my brain down and not let everything speed up on me.”

It’s at the point where Atlanta likely needs to let Jarvis play every day between now and the trade deadline, to see if consistent playing time can unlock a quality bottom-of-the-order performer. While outside outlets have been linking Atlanta to any potentially available shortstop, from CJ Abrams to Corey Seager, the answer might be sitting right under their noses and they’ll hopefully find out one way or the other over the next month.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Acknowledging the dreadful performances of both Austin Riley (0-5, 4Ks) and the Braves going 0-2 on ABS, blowing their challenges by the middle innings after missing 0-1 and 0-0 pitches, let’s talk about Bryce Elder.

I wrote before the game about how he needed to figure out what pitch mix was right for him - the four-seam and slider-dominant one he had earlier this season, or the sinker-heavy one that he’s mostly used during this slide.

He went with neither today, instead going slider/4S/cutter the first time through the order and then making his cutter the primary pitch the second time through. And the cutter performed, getting six whiffs in 19 swings, as well as two more called strikes, with the entire arsenal seeing only nine whiffs on the day.

The batted ball inputs weren’t great: of Elder’s 14 batted balls today, seven were hard-hit and his average exit velocity was 90.6 mph. The batted results followed the inputs, with Pittsburgh tagging him for four runs (three earned) on five hits and two walks in four innings. He gave up three home runs, including back-to-back solo shots in the bottom of the third, and a two-run shot in the 4th.

Truth be told, not everything was Elder’s fault - Reynolds should have struck out on a front hip cutter that Drake Baldwin wouldn’t challenge before the hanging slider that was hit for a homer, as well as the last homer being for multiple runs because the previous batter reached on catcher’s interference by Drake Baldwin.

But at the end of the day, Elder has to execute better and he didn’t - both of the solo homers were on pitches left out over the plate, and he consistently struggled to get the third out in several innings, pushing up his pitch count and making these scenarios possible.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s today’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are heading to St. Louis for their final series before the All-Star Break. Here are the scheduled starters for their matchup with the Cardinals this weekend.

Fri: LHP Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy
Sat: Reynaldo López vs LHP Matthew Liberatore
Sun: Hurston Waldrep vs Dustin May

Game Info

• First Pitch: 12:35 PM ET

• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Baldwin’s back behind the plate for the finale, while Jim “Jimmy Baseball” Jarvis checks at shortstop, batting 9th.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

CF Jake Mangum
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Esmerlyn Valdez
DH Ryan O’Hearn
3B Nick Gonzalez
1B Tyler Callihan
C Rafael Flores Jr.
SS Jared Triolo

Quick thoughts:

• No revenge game by Marcell Ozuna from the Braves today, as he’s out of the lineup so that Braves killer Ryan O’Hearn can get a ‘half-day’ at DH.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (5-6, 4.01 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.01 ERA / 3.61 xERA / 3.99 FIP

• 20.0% K / 7.2% BB / 12.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 31% four-seamer, 26% slider, 19% cutter, 12% sinker, 11% changeup

• vs RHH: 54% sinker, 29% slider, 9% four-seamer, 5% changeup, 3% cutter

What to watch:

• For Elder, his pitch mix and velocities are important to watch today. He cut his four-seam usage and ramped up how many sinkers he throws about four starts ago, and then fastball velocities dropped about 1 mph last time out. The Braves addressed the second one, calling this some arm fatigue, but not the first one.

  

  The change in sinker usage coincides with his rough stretch, one in which he allowed 21 runs in 20 innings and took three losses. It’s a lagging indicator, though; his first outing with the new pitch mix was six innings of two-run, two-hit ball against these very Pirates in a 3-2 Braves win.

Who to watch:

• Most of the Pirates roster has seen Elder before, owing to him facing them last month. No one’s been particularly successful, with Henry Davis being 1-4, Jared Triolo being 1-5 with a homer, and Bryan Reynolds sitting at 2-11.

Opposing Starter: RHP Mitch Keller (6-6, 5.02 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.02 ERA / 5.38 xERA / 4.40 FIP

• 17.3 K% / 7.7 BB% / 9.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (32%, 93.4 mph)

• Sinker (18%, 92.3 mph)

• Sweeper (17%, 82.1 mph)

• Curveball (9%, 77.9 mph)

• Slider (9%, 87.5 mph)

• Changeup (9%, 88.8 mph)

• Cutter (7%, 89.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-seam dominant kitchen mix with common tendencies - less breaking balls and more fastballs when behind in the count, reversing that trend when ahead and with two strikes.

vs RHH: A sweeper-dominant kitchen sink mix, one that ramps up sinker usage early, four-seamers when behind, and sweepers when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• A lot of Braves hitters have an extensive history with Keller, and several of them have been rather successful: Kyle Farmer’s 8-15 with an RBI, Mauricio Dubón’s 6-13 with a homer & three RBI, Matt Olson’s 8-15 with a homer and an RBI, and Austin Riley’s 5-12 with five RBI.

Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Veteran lefty Danny Young is available out of the pen, as is prospect JR Ritchie and longman Victor Mederos.

Used recently:

• Dylan Dodd made an appearance last night, but with a pitch count of eight and can likely come back today if needed. Dylan Lee’s ten pitches won’t preclude him from returning today, despite getting into three of the team’s last five games.

Potential limitations:

• Didier Fuentes is almost certainly down after last night’s 19-pitch effort, based on how the Braves protect him, while Raisel Iglesias would normally be down based on a three-day pitch count of 45 but closers have different rules, so who knows?

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta’s got plenty of options for today, but many of them will likely be in unfamiliar roles if it’s a close game.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Turns out a blowout win being shut out can do a lot for resting your bullpen.

Used recently/Potential Limitations:

• A trio of medium-leverage relievers in Dennis Santana, Mason Montgomery, and Isaac Mattson couldn’t preserve the perfect game of Jared Jones or keep Atlanta off the board, but at least they did it efficiently and can come back today, if needed.

Quick takeaway:

• All hands on deck, mostly, for the Pirates as they look for a series win.

What to Watch Today

• Keller got blasted by the Braves when he faced them last month, giving up six runs on seven hits (including a Mauricio Dubón homer) across just 4.2 innings. He struck out four and walked three, but had to battle through traffic on the basepaths in every single inning but one. Did he learn what went wrong in that outing?

• Small sample sizes this season, but Keller’s getting obliterated by lefties (.283/.340/.492 and 10 of his 12 homers allowed).

• Elder’s looking to stabilize and get back on track after a rough stretch in the month of June. Does he change his pitch mix back to what was working? Is his fastball velo back where it needs to be?

Final Thought

Braves are favored in the finale, with FanDuel projecting this to be a surprisingly high-scoring (O/U 9.5 runs) game. Which struggling starter can keep the opposing offense at bay?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.

If you missed my previous article, we broke down how the MLB Draft works, why it is so different from the NFL and NBA drafts, and what fans should actually pay attention to when evaluating a draft class from the outside looking in.

Today, let’s bring the conversation back to Atlanta.

Since Dana Brown departed for Houston, Ronit Shah has been leading the Braves scouting department. Now entering his seventh draft with the organization, the last three being in charge, Shah has quietly built a reputation as one of the better evaluators of amateur talent in baseball.

With Shah and Alex Anthopoulos once again leading the charge this weekend, I wanted to look back at Atlanta's last three draft classes to see if any noticeable trends have developed.

Three drafts isn't enough to establish hard-and-fast organizational rules, but it is enough to identify some consistent tendencies.

2026 Braves Today Draft Guide

• Part 1: 2026 MLB Draft Primer: Everything You Need to Know

• Part 2: How the Braves Approach the MLB Draft

• Part 3: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 9

• Part 4: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 26

• Part 5: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 48

• Part 6: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 84

  ---

Premium Rounds (1 through 3)

Let’s start with the picks everyone pays attention to. These are the selections organizations expect to become legitimate Major League contributors, and for the Braves there has been one trend that stood out for years: pitching.

From 2020 through 2024, every first-round pick was a pitcher. The same was true from 2015 through 2018. That means 12 of Atlanta's last 15 first-round selections before last year were arms.

Then came Tate Southisene.

Instead of another pitcher, the Braves selected the Nevada prep shortstop, marking the organization's first first-round bat since 2019. Was that the beginning of a philosophical shift, or simply the result of how last year's board unfolded? We obviously do not know yet, but it is something worth watching this weekend.

The bigger pattern actually comes after the first round.

Rounds two and three have consistently been where Atlanta saves money. Every one of those selections over the past three drafts has come from the college ranks, with three position players and four pitchers making up the group.

Nine of those ten premium selections signed for less than slot value. Only five were true money-saving deals that came in well below slot, but the overall trend is still obvious. Shah and Anthopoulos have consistently preferred creating financial flexibility early in the draft instead of spending aggressively right away.

The lone exception was Drue Hackenberg in 2023, who signed for about $627,000 over slot. Even then, compared to some of the massive over-slot bonuses we have seen around baseball, that deal felt much closer to slot than a true swing for the fences.

Zoom out, and the strategy becomes clear: Atlanta has consistently chosen to save money early because they know exactly where they want to spend it later.

Mid Rounds (4 through 6)

This is where Atlanta’s draft strategy really reveals itself. If there is one pattern that has become impossible to ignore, it is what Atlanta does in these middle rounds.

Each of the last three drafts has featured two overslot prep players, typically one pitcher and one position player, while the remaining pick has been a college player who signs below slot to help balance the bonus pool.

Last year provided a perfect example.

Atlanta selected left-handed pitcher Briggs McKenzie in the fourth round and signed him for just under $3 million despite being the 127th overall pick. They followed that by signing Conor Essenburg in the fifth round for nearly $759,000 over slot.

That same blueprint showed up the previous two years as well.

In 2024, catcher Nick Montgomery and pitcher Ethan Bagwell both received over-slot bonuses. In 2023, it was pitcher Garrett Baumann and outfielder Isaiah Drake.

Of course, someone has to help pay for those bonuses. That is where the college selections come into play, and these have quietly turned into some really nice picks themselves.

Last year it was infielder Dixon Williams, who is currently posting a .760 OPS with High-A Rome. In 2024, it was Herick Hernandez, who owns a 2.59 ERA with a 32.5 percent strikeout rate in Double-A Columbus. In 2023, it was Lucas Braun, who has continued climbing the system while producing solid numbers in both Double-A and Triple-A.

That is what makes this strategy so effective.

Atlanta is not simply saving money and spending it elsewhere. They are finding legitimate baseball players on both sides of the equation. When your over-slot bets develop, and your money-saving picks outperform expectations, your farm system starts climbing rankings in a hurry. We are beginning to see exactly that happen this season.

Most clubs can identify talented prep players. The challenge is creating enough bonus pool flexibility to actually sign them. The Braves have consistently found the money.

In total, seven of the ten selections in this range have signed for over slot bonuses, ranging anywhere from roughly $226,000 to more than $2.4 million over slot value. If recent history repeats itself, I would not be surprised at all if we see Atlanta target two highly regarded prep players somewhere in this range again on Saturday.

Late Rounds (7 through 10)

This is where Atlanta replenishes organizational depth.

Over the last three drafts, Atlanta has made 12 selections between rounds seven and ten. Every single one has come from the college ranks. Ten have been pitchers, and every player signed below slot value.

This is where the Braves replenish organizational depth. By this point, much of the bonus pool has already been allocated, so the focus shifts toward adding experienced college arms who can provide pitching depth throughout the system.

Some recent names include Zach Royse, Carter Lovasz, Brett Sears, Owen Hackman, and Logan Samuels.

The only two position players selected during this stretch have also been college players, with Logan Braunschweig standing out as the most notable last season after already reaching Double-A Columbus.

Overview

If the previous three drafts revealed Atlanta’s blueprint, this year’s bonus pool gives the organization its best opportunity yet to deviate from it.

The Braves enter this draft with a bonus pool of nearly $15.9 million, a massive jump from the $9.1 million they had in 2025, $7.8 million in 2024, and $8.3 million in 2023. That changes the equation immensely.

I still expect Atlanta to follow some of the same principles they have used in recent years because they have worked remarkably well. But with an extra first round selection and significantly more money available, this feels like the perfect opportunity to get more aggressive and swing for the fences.

Whether that means floating a talented college player down to pick 26 or 48 with a strong bonus offer, or convincing a prep prospect with first-round talent to pass on college, the Braves have more flexibility than they have had in years.

That is what makes this draft so fascinating. Could we finally see Atlanta hand out a significant over-slot bonus with one of its premium selections under Shah and Anthopoulos? Was Tate Southisene the beginning of a shift toward targeting more impact bats early?

With almost twice as much bonus pool space as they’ve had in recent years, we’ll soon find out whether the Braves are sticking to the blueprint—or rewriting it.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Pirates starter Jared Jones, who has been trying to get back to form this season after elbow surgery, was literally achieving the pinnacle of pitching tonight: a perfect game.

But a perfect game is nine innings, and Jones, who has yet to exceed 81 pitches in any start this season, was done after 77 pitches and six innings. Ozzie Albies almost immediately broke up the perfect game with a one-out single in the 7th inning.

But the real turning point was the 8th inning.

Reliever Dennis Santana picked up two quick outs, getting Mauricio Dubón to strike out (ending his 15-game on-base streak) and inducing an Austin Riley groundout. But Santana gave up a five-pitch double to Mike Yastrzemski, getting got on a slider that could not have been more middle-middle had they set it on a pitching tee.

And then Santana’s former batterymate, Joey Bart, came to bat.

Bart has been behind the plate for 221 of Santana’s career plate appearances, and so he knew that one of Santana’s recent tendencies was throwing first-pitch sinkers. Bart was ready.

Bart said after the game that he was just trying to be aggressive in that situation, with a simple game plan: “Get something early in the count across the plate and put a good swing on it.”

I’d say that swing was pretty good, yeah.

Today’s Player of the Game

With 69% of the vote on the Postcast, Joey Bart won his second Player of the Game award of the season.

The Buford, GA native and Georgia Tech product hasn’t been in Atlanta that long, appearing in just ten games, but he’s already making an impact with the Braves. Bart has two home runs and a .716 OPS, which in that small sample makes him one of the most productive Braves catchers this season not named Drake Baldwin.

We’re not quite there yet, but with the struggles of Dominic Smith (.594 OPS since May 5th), there’s a world where the Braves keep Bart on the roster once Sean Murphy returns. Baldwin could serve as the primary designated hitter, possibly rotating through with Ronald Acuña Jr. and/or a deadline acquisition, while Murphy mans the plate on most nights and Bart rotates in after pinch-hit opportunities and provides high-level insurance. Given his ability to hit lefties (a 111 wRC+ in that split going back to the start of 2023), he could get starts behind the plate in those situations if the team wanted to give days off to Murphy (who also hits lefties well, a 115 wRC+ in that same split).

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to the offense rebounding from being perfect game’d to win, I’d like to talk about Grant Holmes.

A lot of digital ink has been spilled about his inability to navigate the second trip through the order, with his OPS allowed in those situations (1.051 OPS) being nearly double what it is the first time through (.568 OPS).

Holmes bucked that trend today.

The first time through the order, he issued one walk, gave up one single, and hit one batter, striking out four. The second time wasn’t much worse: two singles and one strikeout, with no walks.

It was clear that the Pirates had a specific game plan of attacking Holmes early in the at-bat and making him labor, firing off a season-high 35 foul balls off the righty. But Holmes adjusted his pitch mix tonight, eschewing his curveball for more cutters and sinkers, and generally not allowing Pirates hitters to get comfortable in their at-bats.

More importantly, he stuck to that modified pitch mix instead of preemptively changing things for the second time through the order. Pittsburgh bent but never broke him, and he got through five innings for just the second time in his last six starts.

Not to be overlooked, Atlanta’s bullpen stepped up to close out the final four innings of the game with just one hit allowed, striking out six with one walk. Dylan Dodd stepped up for some leverage work, following Didier Fuentes and giving the Braves a scoreless seventh inning, before Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias took the final two frames.

With Robert Suarez due back sometime soon after the All-Star Break, this Braves pen has the potential to be one of the deepest it’s ever been, with potentially six or seven relievers all having spots in the Tree of Trust. While the rotation needs to give more than five innings consistently, having an elite bullpen on the backend can help mitigate that lack of length somewhat, provided it’s not every single night.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves will look to win the series tomorrow afternoon, with Bryce Elder (5-6, 4.01) squaring off with veteran Mitch Keller (6-6, 5.02) at 12:35 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET

• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
DH Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
C Joey Bart
SS Jorge Mateo

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta gives Drake Baldwin a half-day at DH versus a righty, inserting Joey Bart into the #8 spot in the order and swapping shortstops from Jim Jarvis to Jorge Mateo.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

CF Jake Mangum
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Esmerlyn Valdez
1B Ryan O’Hearn
3B Nick Gonzalez
DH Marcell Ozuna
SS Jared Triolo
C Henry Davis

Quick thoughts:

• Lowe retakes a defensive position today, freeing up designated hitter for old friend Marcell Ozuna from the Braves.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (5-4, 3.83 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.83 ERA / 4.59 xERA / 5.22 FIP

• 19.9% K / 10.7% BB / 9.3% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 34% slider, 34% four-seamer, 12% curveball, 10% cutter, 7% changeup, 3% sinker

• vs RHH: 43% slider, 29% four-seamer, 20% sinker, 3% curveball & changeup, 2% cutter

What to watch:

• As always, it’s the time-through-the-order penalty for Holmes, specifically the second time he faces the same batters in a game:

  • 1st = .197/.285/.283, .568 OPS

  • 2nd = .311/.387/.664, 1.051 OPS

  • 3rd = .173/.283/.250, .533 OPS

Who to watch:

• There is a grand total of six at-bats off of Holmes on Pittsburgh’s roster, and the only one with a hit is Brandon Lowe being 1-1.

Opposing Starter: RHP Jared Jones (1-1, 5.28 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.28 ERA / 4.42 xERA / 4.36 FIP

• 24.6 K% / 8.7 BB% / 15.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (38%, 98.6 mph)

• Slider (33%, 90.2 mph)

• Changeup (18%, 93.4 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 85.6 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-seam dominant mix with some interesting tendencies - less sliders when ahead, choosing instead to ramp up its use when behind and with two strikes. He also swaps out curveballs for more four-seam fastball when behind.

vs RHH: A four-seam/slider dominant mix, one that cuts back on changeups when behind in favor of sliders and four-seamers and ramps up changeup usage when ahead, sacrificing some sliders to do it.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• No Braves hitters have ever faced Jared Jones.

Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Lefty Connor Thomas, who covered more than three innings last night and was sent back down this morning, and position player Jorge Mateo combined to give the entire pen a rest. Victor Mederos was called up today to replace Thomas and will be able to provide length for Atlanta

Used recently/potential limitations:

• JR Ritchie, who pitched three innings in relief of Chris Sale on Saturday, is theoretically available for long relief work as well, but you have to wonder if they’ll try and insert him in the rotation instead of Hurston Waldrep sometime this week.

Quick takeaway:

• Atlanta’s got everybody available if they have a chance to even up the series tonight.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Turns out a blowout win can do a lot for resting your bullpen.

Used recently/Potential Limitations:

• Carmen Mlodzinski and Hunter Stratton both pitched last night, and I’m assuming based on pitch count that Mlodzinski will get the night off but not be outright down.

Quick takeaway:

• All hands on deck, mostly, for the Pirates as they look to avenge getting swept last month.

What to Watch Today

• Jones is still working his way back from elbow surgery, which means the two things to watch are his locations and his stamina. He’s only once finished five innings in his seven starts this season, mostly because he’s not throwing a ton of strikes. He’s not overly walking guys, just having longer at-bats.

Final Thought

Not really a shock, but the Braves are NOT favored in what FanDuel projects to be a surprisingly high-scoring (O/U 9.5 runs) game. Can Grant Holmes hold the Pirates offense at bat when the lineup turns over? If he can, it’ll give Atlanta’s offense a chance against the soft underbelly of the Pirates bullpen.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.

With July 4 now in the rearview mirror, it is officially MLB Draft week.

Compared to the NFL and NBA, the MLB Draft rarely gets the same level of hype, which makes sense. You don’t see immediate results like in other sports. A player selected this weekend, especially a high school prospect, may not step onto a Major League field for three, four, or even five years. Many never make it at all.

Also, unlike the NFL Draft, MLB teams routinely find stars in the second, third, or even tenth round.

For Braves fans, this is an exciting year to pay attention to the draft.

After Atlanta missed the postseason for the first time since 2017, the draft lottery landed the organization the ninth overall pick, a $6.7 million slot value. While many were hopeful the Braves would come in higher than 9th overall, a top-10 pick still gives the front office a chance to add a legitimate cornerstone prospect.

Atlanta also has extra incentive to pay attention early. Thanks to Drake Baldwin winning National League Rookie of the Year last season, Atlanta also earned a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) pick at No. 26 overall. That selection comes with another $3.6 million in bonus pool money and gives the Braves two opportunities to add premium talent in the first round for the first time since 2022 (Owen Murphy, JR Ritchie).

Before we start talking about who Atlanta could target and what strategies they may take, it helps to understand how the MLB Draft actually works because it is unlike any other draft in professional sports.

2026 Braves Today Draft Guide

• Part 1: 2026 MLB Draft Primer: Everything You Need to Know

• Part 2: How the Braves Approach the MLB Draft

• Part 3: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 9

• Part 4: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 26

• Part 5: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 48

• Part 6: Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 84

  ---

Bonus Pools and Slot Values

If you are truly new to the MLB Draft, forget almost everything you know about the NFL or NBA drafts In those leagues, teams generally select the best player available while balancing positional need. Money is largely predetermined and worked into their financials pre-draft.

Baseball is completely different.

Every team receives a bonus pool that they can use to sign their draft class. Teams are allowed to exceed that pool, but there are significant penalties. Going over by up to 5% only results in a 75% tax on the overage. Once you go beyond that threshold, however, future draft picks become part of the penalty. No front office wants to lose premium picks, so teams never cross that line - in the history of the bonus pool system, no team’s ever exceeded that 5% overage.

As mentioned, each draft pick is assigned a slot value. Add all of those slot values together and you get a team's total bonus pool.

Sounds simple enough. The challenge comes in deciding how to spend that money.

Some organizations are willing to commit more than half of their bonus pool to one player (over-slot) they believe has superstar potential. Others prefer to save money early by signing a player below slot value (under slot), like Atlanta did with Tate Southisene last year, then use those savings to pay another player above slot value later in the draft.

If you have ever wondered why a team passed on a player who seemed like the obvious choice, this is often the reason.

Another term you will hear throughout draft week is "floating" a player down the board. This happens when a team drafting later promises a player a larger signing bonus than teams selecting ahead of them. Agents will often communicate those expectations to clubs, and in some cases a player may simply refuse to sign with another organization because they know a better financial opportunity exists a few picks later.

If a player ultimately does not sign, the team receives compensation in the following draft. While that sounds nice in theory, it can completely derail an entire draft strategy in the present.

Grading Scales

As prospects get discussed throughout the draft, you will constantly hear about the 20 to 80 scouting scale.

A 50-grade is considered Major League average. The higher the number, the better the tool. Anything below 50 represents varying levels below league average.

One important thing to remember is these grades are projections, not permanent labels. A prospect with 40-grade power today is not guaranteed to have 40-grade power forever. Scouting reports also include Future Value (FV) grades, which project where scouts believe a player’s tools will eventually end up.

For example, if a prospect has a 35/50 hit grade, the first number represents where the hit tool is today. The second number reflects where that scout believes it can develop. The player may currently have well below average contact skills, but the combination of physical tools, swing characteristics, athleticism, and development could eventually produce a league average hitter.

High School Preps vs College Players

Also unlike the NFL and NBA, Major League Baseball allows high school seniors to enter the draft. That creates one of the most fascinating dynamics in professional sports.

If a prep player does not like where they are selected or the signing bonus being offered, they can simply decline to sign and honor their college commitment instead.

The rise of NIL has only complicated that process. Elite amateur players can now earn significant money in college, giving them much more leverage than prospects had just a few years ago. Teams often have to offer considerably larger bonuses to convince those players to begin their professional careers immediately.

That is one of the biggest reasons high school players generally receive larger signing bonuses. College players have their own leverage game.

College sophomores who are draft eligible usually possess the most negotiating power because they can return to school for another season and lose minimal in value. Juniors are typically easier to sign since they are much closer to exhausting their eligibility, although they still retain the option to return.

College seniors, on the other hand, have very little leverage. They cannot go back to school, so teams often sign them for significantly below slot value. Those savings are then used elsewhere in the draft.

When it comes to positions, premium athletes remain king.

Shortstops, especially at the prep level, are often viewed as the crown jewels of the draft because they possess athleticism that develops into the highest ceilings. Center fielders are generally next in line before the rest of the position groups begin to sort themselves out, ending with first base-only prospects.

One demographic that is currently evolving is prep catchers. There is a long history of highly drafted high school catchers struggling to live up to expectations, and I am curious whether that trend continues over the next several years. College catchers are typically seen as a better bet, but the position as a whole has been very hit-or-miss in recent years.

Pitching evaluations are equally fascinating.

Some organizations prioritize pure stuff, velocity, and swing and miss potential, accepting the risk that command may never develop. Others value strike throwing, pitchability, and a safer overall profile, even if the ceiling is lower.

There probably is not a universally correct answer.

The Braves themselves have shifted toward a more individualized pitching development philosophy in recent years, making this year's pitching evaluations especially interesting.

That philosophical debate is part of what makes the MLB Draft so interesting every year.

Draft Strategies

This is where the MLB Draft becomes one giant chess match.

If you approach it with an NFL mindset, some selections will leave you scratching your head. Take the White Sox this year; Chicago owns the first overall pick and a $17.6 million bonus pool. Many believe UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is the best player in the class, but prep shortstop Grady Emerson has also generated plenty of momentum and could get taken at #1 overall instead. Whoever they select will likely command somewhere around $9.5 to $10 million. That is well over half of Chicago’s entire bonus pool spent on one player.

In a class featuring ten picks during the first ten rounds, the bonus to the #1 overall player dramatically changes how the rest of the draft unfolds. Sometimes that investment is worth it because the talent is simply too good to pass up. Other times, teams intentionally save money at the top.

Last season provides a perfect example.

When the Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits first overall, many evaluators viewed him as one of the top prospects in the class but not necessarily the best player available. By signing him for roughly $2.1 million below slot value, Washington created enough flexibility to aggressively pursue additional prep talent later in the draft, including Landon Harmon, Miguel Sime Jr., and Coy James.

Making that decision first overall always invites criticism, but it can completely reshape the strength of an entire draft class.

The Braves gave us a similar example last year with less at stake.

When Atlanta selected Tate Southisene with the 22nd overall pick, many fans were confused. Most public rankings placed him somewhere between 40th and 50th overall. But the selection was never just about Southisene.

By signing him for $2.62 million, roughly $1.37 million below slot value, the Braves created enough financial flexibility to hand 4th-rounder Briggs McKenzie a $3 million bonus, roughly equal to the #32 pick, despite the slot value at his pick of #127 being just under $589,000. They also signed 5th-rounder Conor Essenburg for $1.2 million (late 2nd-round money) against a slot value of roughly $439,000.

Viewed individually, the Southisene pick surprised people. Viewed as part of the entire draft strategy, it made perfect sense: Save some money up top and redistribute the savings across day one. It also helps that Southisene has been one of the hottest minor leaguers in baseball this year, as well, recently being named a Top 100 prospect by MLB Pipeline. Suddenly, what looked like a reach made a lot more sense.

Overview

If I could give one piece of advice heading into draft week, it would be this:

Do not grade a team’s draft after the first round. Grade the entire class.

No organization can simply take the best player available with every selection, because every decision impacts the financial flexibility for the next one. There will always be selections classified as a reach. The draft is one long balancing act between talent, money, leverage, and organizational philosophy.

It’s also important to remember just how difficult professional baseball is.

Most of these players will never reach the Major Leagues. Simply making a big league debut is a success story, even if it is not what fans hope for from a first-round pick. The reality is that many of the players selected this weekend may not reach the majors until 2030 or later, if they get there at all.

Development is rarely linear. Some prospects explode through the system. Others take years before everything clicks. A few come completely out of nowhere.

That uncertainty is exactly what makes the MLB Draft so frustrating, fascinating, and worth obsessing over every July.