Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 77° and sunny, wind E at 8 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Eli White
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Chadwick Tromp

Quick thoughts:

• With a lefty on the mound, Mike Yastrzemski and Dominic Smith check out of the lineup, replaced by Mauricio Dubón and Eli White. It’s also a bit of load management for Ronald Acuña Jr., who gets a ‘half day’ at designated hitter.

Toronto Blue Jays Lineup

LF Nathan Lukes
RF Yohendrick Piñango
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr.
DH Jesús Sánchez
2B Ernie Clement
CF Daulton Varsho
3B Kazuma Okamoto
SS Andrés Giménez
C Brandon Valenzuela

Quick thoughts:

• After being able to pinch-hit on Tuesday night, Jesús Sánchez checks in as the designated hitter, batting cleanup.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.95)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.95 ERA / 4.27 xERA / 5.06 FIP

• 21.7% K / 10.2% BB / 11.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 36% each of four-seamer & slider, 10% curveball, 9% cutter, 8% changeup, 2% sinker

• vs RHH: 48% slider, 30% four-seamer, 15% sinker, 3% each of changeup & cutter, 2% curveball

Who to watch:

• Of all people on this roster to hit a home run against Grant Holmes in their careers, Miles Straw is the absolute last person I would have guessed.

Opposing Starter: LHP Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.65 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.65 ERA / 5.28 xERA / 4.04 FIP

• 17.1 K% / 6.6 BB% / 10.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (31%, 91.3 mph)

• Slider (25%, 78.5 mph)

• Changeup (18%, 77.9 mph)

• Cutter (18%, 86.1 mph)

• Four-seamer (7%, 91.0 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Slider-dominant mix with minimal four-seam or cutter usage when ahead or with two strikes.

vs RHH: A more balanced sinker-based mix early that wildly swings based on at-bat state: increased changeup/slider/four-seam when ahead, increased sinker/cutter when behind. Slider is the preferred putaway pitch.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• A LOT of Braves players have had a LOT of success off of Patrick Corbin from his time with the Washington Nationals.

  • 

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Dylan Lee and Tyler Kinley have both enjoyed three days off, while Didier Fuentes, Dylan Dodd, and Reynaldo López haven’t gotten in a game since Sunday.

  • Dodd was warming up last night, before Elder got out of the 6th. Getting ‘dry humped’, as relievers call that situation, don’t show up on the box score but do impact usage down the line. They might get him some run tonight 9if possible) and then give him a day off.

Used recently:

• Both Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias pitched last night to seal the win, but not with pitch counts onerous enough to rule them out for today.

Potential limitations:

• I don’t see anyone being down, unless it’s for a reason we don’t know about.

Quick takeaway:

• Everyone’s available to seal a win here for manager Walt Weiss.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Hayden Yuenger, who threw 36 pitches on Sunday, has had two days off and should be good to go for tonight.

Used recently

• Mason Fluharty and Braydon Fisher both threw last night, but with reasonable pitch counts that shouldn’t rule them out of this one.

Potential limitations

• No one, based on in-game usage or pitch counts.

Quick takeaway:

• Toronto has the pieces they need, including a fully rested lefty in Adam Macko, to handle this one.

What to Watch Today

• How does Patrick Corbin fare in his personal House of Horrors known as Truist Park?

  • This will be his 11th career start and in his previous 10, he’s 0-7 with a 6.32 ERA. 61 hits, including 7 homers, in 47 innings will do something to a man.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). This one comes down to Patrick Corbin - can he finally, for once, figure out the Atlanta offense?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

We will once again take a look at the first, second, and third team performers from across the entire Atlanta Braves organization through the end of May.

As a reminder, this is a cumulative list that includes each player's production this season regardless of level. With the Dominican Summer League beginning this month, the next update could feature even more names that Braves fans should familiarize themselves with.

Trust me, you are going to like what you see.

First Team All-Braves

Batters

Let's start on the infield, where last year's first-round pick, Tate Southisene, continues to establish himself as one of the most exciting young prospects in the entire organization. He has been one of the best teenage hitters in the minor leagues this season, as his 160 wRC+ is tied for first among minor leaguers under the age of 21 and ranks 28th among the 1,269 total MiLB hitters with at least 100 at bats this year. Every month it becomes easier to envision Southisene climbing into national Top 100 prospect conversations.

Another player finally delivering on his immense potential is Luis Guanipa. Since signing during the 2023 international free agent period, Braves fans have been waiting for the tools to translate into production. This season, they finally have, leading the Green Jackets in batting average (.313), slugging percentage (.521), hits (60), and RBIs (34). In Double-A Columbus, Lizandro Espinoza is quietly putting together the best season of his professional career. He leads the Clingstones in batting average (.278), OBP (.404), OPS (.904), wRC+ (141), and runs scored (33).

Since arriving from the Detroit Tigers organization last season, Jim Jarvis has become one of Gwinnett's most dependable hitters. His strong start even earned him a brief trip to Atlanta earlier this season. He’s hitting .300 in Triple-A and leads the Stripers with 60 hits.

Matt Olson continues to remind everyone why he remains one of the best players at his position in baseball. While he has cooled off a bit recently, his 16 home runs and .882 OPS still rank among the league leaders. Behind the plate, Drake Baldwin remains the organization’s top catcher despite his injury. Before landing on the injured list, Baldwin was performing like one of the best offensive catchers in all of baseball.

After a strong 2025 DSL season that earned him a brief stateside appearance, Michael Martinez opened 2026 at the complex and immediately forced a promotion, batting 375 with a staggering 1.303 OPS and 204 wRC+ across 11 games. He continues to swing a hot bat in Augusta, recording 11 hits and two home runs in his first 10 games while batting .324.

Eric Hartman may be the biggest riser in the entire organization. The former 20th-round prep selection from Canada is still just 19 years old and is tied for second with 13 home runs for all MiLB players under the age of 21 with at least 100 plate appearances. He also sits near the top of the leaderboard in OPS (.953) and wRC+ (147).

The final outfield spot goes to Brewer Hicklen. This is not meant to take anything away from what Hicklen has accomplished, but the difficult reality is that at 30 years old and with only 10 major league games on his résumé, it’s hard to envision a significant opportunity opening up in Atlanta.

Pitchers

Despite being selected in the fourth round of last year's draft, Briggs McKenzie received the largest signing bonus in Atlanta's draft class. After not appearing in a professional game until this season, McKenzie has looked every bit as impressive as advertised. Across three appearances at the complex, he has allowed just one run while striking out nine and walking only two across 11.1 innings.

Based strictly on this season's production, my highest-rated pitching prospect has been Carter Lovasz. After struggling last year, the Augusta righty has completely turned things around. Through 12 appearances spanning 22.2 innings, he has allowed just four runs while striking out 32 batters. His 38.1% strikeout rate, paired with a 6.0% walk rate, is exactly the type of profile organizations dream of developing. Isaac Gallegos has experienced a similar breakout in Rome. Working out of the bullpen, he owns a 0.81 WHIP while posting a 36.6% strikeout rate.

The final two spots belong to a pair of familiar faces.

Spencer Strider has not quite matched the absurd strikeout pace we saw in 2023, but since that difficult outing at Coors Field he has looked much more like himself. His expected batting average ranks in the 98th percentile, his strikeout rate sits in the 96th percentile, and his whiff rate lands in the 94th percentile.

As for Chris Sale, there really is not much left to say. Every time he takes the mound, he reminds baseball why he remains one of the sport’s elite pitchers.

Second Team All-Braves

Batters

Heading back to the complex, Manuel Campos continues to quietly put together a strong season. Overshadowed at times by bigger bonus signings from the same IFA class, such as Diego Tornes and Raudy Reyes, Campos has steadily worked his way onto the radar. After earning a move stateside following last season, he has recorded 22 hits in 22 games, including four doubles, two triples, and a home run so far this year.

Double-A Columbus is not loaded with nationally ranked prospects, but it has become home to a pair of hitters putting together excellent seasons in Jordan Groshans and David McCabe.

Once considered one of the Blue Jays’ top prospects, Groshans never quite developed into the player many expected. This year, however, he appears to have found something. Through the end of May, Groshans owns a .850 OPS and 10 home runs. McCabe has been every bit as productive. He leads the Clingstones with 11 home runs and has posted an .866 OPS of his own.

Behind the plate, Adam Zebrowski earns the nod as the organization’s second-team catcher. Splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, he has slugged .511 with an .861 OPS. Rowdy Tellez moves up to the second team in this update. The veteran leads Gwinnett with 32 RBIs and 10 home runs, providing exactly the type of power production you hope to see from a player with major league experience.

In the outfield, Isaiah Drake has taken a significant step forward this season in Rome. Long known for his athleticism and speed, the biggest question surrounding Drake was always whether the power would develop. Through the first two months of the season, Drake is second on the team with a .432 slugging percentage and has already launched eight home runs. For context, he entered the season with just 16 career homers.

Logan Braunschweig slides down to the second team after cooling off somewhat from his torrid start, but his season has still been impressive. He performed well enough in Rome to earn a promotion to Double-A. While he has just one hit in his first seven at-bats with Columbus, his .798 OPS prior to the promotion shows just how productive he was at the High-A level.

The final two outfield spots belong to Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr.

Harris II has been one of my favorite stories on the major league roster this year. Each the past few seasons, he struggled in the first half before turning it on in the second half. This year has been different. Harris has looked comfortable from the jump, and seeing him avoid one of those prolonged early season slumps has been a welcome sight for Braves fans. As for Acuña Jr, his placement on the second team says more about the absurd standard he has created than anything else. By most players’ standards, his season would be considered excellent. By Ronald Acuña Jr. standards, it felt unusually quiet for stretches. That may be changing, as he closed May with seven hits, five home runs, five runs scored, 10 RBIs, and five stolen bases.

Pitchers

Ethan Bagwell continues to look like one of the bigger risers in the organization. The 20 year old has been dominant for Augusta, ranking first among qualified Single-A pitchers under the age of 21 in ERA (1.96), FIP (2.82), and WHIP (1.00). Luke Sinnard has only made four starts as he works his way back from injury, but the early results have been very encouraging. Splitting his appearances between the complex and Rome, Sinnard owns a 3.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and an impressive 28.8% strikeout rate compared to just a 3.0% walk rate.

Owen Hackman has also put together a strong campaign and earned a promotion from Rome to Columbus. His 31.6% strikeout rate is the highest mark of his professional career, and the improvement has shown up in both the results and underlying metrics.

The final two spots belong to veteran relievers hoping to work their way back to the major leagues.

Just a few years ago, James Karinchak was one of the better relievers in baseball. Injuries and inconsistency knocked him off that path, but he appears determined to get back. Through the end of May, Karinchak owns a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 36.6% strikeout rate. If he continues pitching like this, another major league opportunity feels inevitable.

Ian Hamilton has already received a brief opportunity with Atlanta this season, though it did not go according to plan. In his lone appearance, he allowed three runs in one inning. However, in Gwinnett Hamilton has posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Third Team All-Braves

Batters

Starting on the infield, Dalton McIntyre earns a spot after a strong start to the season in Augusta. The infielder posted an .862 OPS across 29 games, which was more than enough to earn a promotion to High-A Rome. Also in Rome is one of the most exciting prospects in the entire system, John Gil. After getting off to a slower start than many Braves fans hoped for, Gil has begun to look much more like the player that generated so much excitement entering the season. The combination of speed and power remains extremely intriguing. He leads the team with 27 stolen bases and has already launched seven home runs while posting a .797 OPS.

Brett Wisely also finds himself on the third team after putting together a solid season in Triple-A. The former major leaguer is hitting .304 with an .825 OPS and continues to make a case for another opportunity at the highest level.

Every year there seems to be a portion of Braves Country frustrated that Alex Anthopoulos favors value signings over splashy acquisitions. Whether you agree with that philosophy or not, two of those so called "bargain bin" additions have played significant roles this season.

Dominic Smith has already delivered several big moments despite seeing his playing time decrease as Atlanta has gotten healthier. He still leads the club with a .325 batting average and perhaps more impressively is hitting .286 against left handed pitching. Jorge Mateo has arguably been even more impactful. While Ha-Seong Kim has struggled offensively, Mateo has made it impossible to ignore his production. The defense has been good, but the offense has been the real surprise. Through the end of May, he is hitting .316 with an .876 OPS and 146 wRC+.

Jonah Heim is still the third best qualified catcher in the organization this season. More than anything, his inclusion highlights the lack of catching depth Atlanta currently possesses.

The outfield features two of my favorite prospects in the system.

Conor Essenburg was another overslot prep selection from last year’s draft and remains one of the more intriguing young hitters in the organization. There is legitimate power potential here. After beginning the season in Augusta, Essenburg spent some time on the injured list before making a brief rehab stop at the complex and returning to the GreenJackets. The strikeout rate remains elevated at 40.7%, which is certainly something to monitor. At the same time, this is his first full professional season as a teenage prep hitter. Development is rarely linear, and the flashes have been encouraging. Since returning to Augusta, Essenburg owns an .857 OPS with three home runs in just 12 hits.

Owen Carey is another young outfielder worth keeping an eye on. The 15th round selection from the 2024 draft impressed enough as an 18 year old in Augusta last season to open 2026 with High-A Rome. Before suffering an injury, Carey was hitting .267 with a .784 OPS through 12 games. He is currently rehabbing at the complex and should return to Rome in the near future.

The final outfield spot goes to Mike Yastrzemski. After a brutal start that had many Braves fans questioning the signing, Yastrzemski has looked much more like the player Atlanta thought it was getting this offseason. The biggest difference has been his ability to get the ball in the air again. During May, he hit .316 with a .953 OPS, four doubles, and three home runs.

Pitchers

The third team pitching staff begins with two arms who have already earned promotions from Augusta to Rome.

Mathieu Curtis has been one of the more effective relievers in the system this season. Overall, he owns a 2.14 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP while striking out nearly 30% of opposing hitters. His work in Augusta was particularly dominant, posting a 0.63 ERA across eight appearances. Drew Christo has followed a similar path. After recording a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in Augusta, he earned a promotion to Rome where he has continued to excel. Through his first five appearances with the Emperors, Christo has allowed just three hits and zero runs.

Drue Hackenberg's development has not been quite as straightforward. After a difficult 2025 season that saw several of his metrics trend in the wrong direction, Hackenberg opened this year at the complex level. While the overall results were mixed, the strikeout ability remained evident as he punched out 12 batters in eight innings. More importantly, his return to Double-A could not have gone much better. In his first appearance back with Columbus, he tossed two hitless innings with one walk and five strikeouts. That is certainly a step in the right direction.

David Rodriguez rounds out the prospect side of the staff. The Rome reliever has quietly put together a strong season, posting a 3.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 30.3% strikeout rate across 23 innings.

And finally, we get to arguably the most underrated pitcher in professional baseball. Dylan Lee earns the final spot on the roster, and frankly, he deserves more appreciation than he gets nationally. Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Lee ranks:

• 7th in BB% (5.6%)

• 8th in WHIP (0.96)

• 10th in SIERA (2.64)

• 13th in ERA (2.49)

• 14th in Hard-Hit% (32.6%)

• 15th in K% (30.7%)

• 28th in FIP (3.16)

The names consistently appearing above him on those leaderboards include relievers such as Aroldis Chapman, Jason Adam, Andrés Muñoz, and Mason Miller. That is elite company. Yet somehow Lee still feels underappreciated outside of Atlanta.

Overall Takeaways

Atlanta currently has the best record in baseball. Drake Baldwin looks like a future star. Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. are beginning to look more like themselves. Matt Olson is once again producing like one of the game’s premier first basemen. At the major league level, there is a lot to be excited about.

The even better news is that the future appears just as bright.

For years, the Braves have been criticized for having one of the weaker farm systems in baseball. Whether that criticism was entirely fair is debatable, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to make that argument in 2026.

When we look back at the 2024 and 2025 drafts a few years from now, there is a real chance we view them as two of the better draft classes in franchise history. Prep selections Tate Southisene, Eric Hartman, Conor Essenburg, Owen Carey, Briggs McKenzie, Cam Caminiti, and Ethan Bagwell have all shown significant promise, while several college arms have developed far quicker than expected.

Time and time again, Atlanta’s scouting and player development departments continue to identify talent throughout the draft, not just at the top. That ability to find impact players in every round is one of the biggest reasons this organization continues to sustain success.

And let’s not forget what is coming next.

The Braves currently hold both the ninth overall selection and the 26th overall selection in the 2026 MLB Draft. That means another infusion of premium talent is on the way for a system that is already trending upward.

As Braves fans, there really has not been a better time to be invested in both the major league club and the farm system since the run to the 2021 World Series.

The present is exciting. The future is exciting.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Jake and I disagreed on this on the Postcast, but I saw the top of the 6th as a pivotal point of the game.

Elder entered the frame trying to protect a 3-2 lead, but Toronto started threatening immediately. Nathan Lukes singled on a 3-2 slider that hung a bit too much, with Vlad Guerrero Jr. then doubling on a 1-0 changeup on the inner third and down.

Runners on 2nd and 3rd, no outs. Given that Elder had already gone five, this is a moment where manager Walt Weiss would not have been out of character to pull Elder and ask one of his lockdown relievers to get out of the jam and preserve the lead.

Weiss, however, chose to trust Elder.

Elder gave up a sacrifice fly to Daulton Varsho (which tied the game at three) but then got Ernie Clement to ground out and Yohendrick Piñango to fly out.

To Jake’s point, the 7th inning had a similar jam, one that Elder didn’t survive. After a leadoff walk of Kazuma Okamoto (who already had a two-run homer in the game), Elder got a groundout and a strikeout before Robert Suarez entered for a crucial inning-ending strikeout of George Springer.

Today’s Player of the Game

By the closest vote we’ve ever had on the postcast - 45% to 44% - Bryce Elder narrowly beat out Matt Olson for the honors.

Elder finished with a quality start, allowing three earned runs across 6.2 innings pitched. He struck out six against only one walk, getting 12 whiffs (7 on his slider) and putting up a 26% CSW. Elder seemed to have the most trouble putting hitters away, getting first pitch strikes on 19 of the 27 hitters he faced, but not always being able to win the at-bat.

It was an interesting game plan from Elder to minimize the sinker in a game where he faced a team that was one of the league’s best at making contact and avoiding strikeouts. He threw just 17 of the groundball-inducing offering in his 103 pitches, choosing instead to lead with the four-seamer against lefties and pair it with the slider.

I’m really curious to see how Elder continues to evolve over the next two months. As the conversation continues about ‘impact starters’ and the postseason rotation as we approach the August 3rd trade deadline, Elder’s going to need to make his case that he has the stuff to be one of those three October starters.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to Robert Saurez and Raisel Iglesias, who pitched 2.1 scoreless innings in relief to seal the win, let’s talk about the offense.

It’s clear that opposing starters are game-planning and adjusting what they do to face Atlanta. In The Scouting Report earlier today, we discussed how Kevin Gausman almost exclusively throws fastballs and splitters, reserving his slider for mostly early-count situations to righties.

That’s not what Gausman did tonight. The righty threw 23% sliders his first time through the order, with several Braves hitters clearly expecting splitters in late-count situations and being forced to react to the breaking ball instead.

But despite one of baseball’s best veteran pitchers making an attempt to throw the Braves off, Atlanta’s offense adjusted and found a way to get it done. Atlanta had eight hard-hit balls in 15 batted ball events, compared to Toronto’s eight hard-hit balls in 20 BBEs. The Braves finished with six runs for the game, five of which came off of Gausman, and had four extra-base hits among the five hits. Atlanta’s average exit velocity off of Gausman was 93.9 mph, just a shade below the threshold of hard-hit (95 mph).

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves come back to Truist Park at the same time tomorrow for game two, with Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.95) set to take on Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.65) at 7:15 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

• TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 74° and partly sunny, wind ENE at 10 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Jorge Mateo continues his streak of starts, in light of the red-hot bat. Mauricio Dubón is out of the lineup, the second time in the last four games.

Toronto Blue Jays Lineup

DH George Springer
LF Nathan Lukes
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr.
CF Daulton Varsho
2B Ernie Clement
RF Yohendrick Piñango
3B Kazuma Okamoto
SS Andrés Giménez
C Brandon Valenzuela

Quick thoughts:

• Watch out for both Guerrero and Clement - they’re both batting in the .360 range over the last 15 days, with Clement having homered twice in that span. Nathan Lukes, while playing in only six of the team’s 11 games during that span, is hitting .429/.500/.524 as a platoon bat in left field.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (4-3, 2.50)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.50 ERA / 3.19 xERA / 3.29 FIP

• 20.8% K / 7.5% BB / 13.3% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 34% four-seamer, 28% slider, 17% cutter, 12% changeup, 9% sinker

• vs RHH: 56% sinker, 29% slider, 9% four-seamer, 5% changeup, 1% cutter

Who to watch:

• Only six players on Toronto’s roster have ever faced Elder. Five of them combine for 15 ABs and four hits, with the sixth being Jesús Sánchez and his 21 ABs. He’s hitting .286 with one homer, four RBI, and an even 1.000 OPS off the righty.

Opposing Starter: RHP Kevin Gausman (4-3, 3.13 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.13 ERA / 3.44 xERA / 2.86 FIP

• 23.6 K% / 4.3 BB% / 19.3% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (53%, 93.9 mph)

• Splitter (39%, 84.0 mph)

• Slider (8%, 84.3 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A pretty standard reliever-type mix - four-seamers when behind, splitters when ahead. You either hit it or you don’t.

vs RHH: A more balanced three-pitch mix early, with sliders early in the at-bat, but still rooted in four-seamers when behind and splitters when ahead.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• It’s a pretty basic sequencing - nothing surprising or unexpected here. Feels like it should be a pretty straightforward matchup, but Gausman’s stuff is as good as ever.

• Austin Riley is 4-6 with a homer off of Gausman, while Matt Olson is 4-16 wth two homers and three RBI.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The leverage arms have all had two days off, so everyone should be available for tonight’s opener.

Used recently:

• Didier Fuentes threw 28 pitches on Sunday, but the last time he did this (Friday), they gave him only one day off so he’s likely available for today.

Potential limitations:

• I don’t see anyone being down, unless it’s for a reason we don’t know about.

Quick takeaway:

• Walt Weiss has a fully armed and operational battle station bullpen for this one.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• It appears that most everyone should be available for Toronto.

Used recently

• Yariel Rodriguez pitched back-to-back on Saturday and Sunday, but with one day off, he is likely available for a shorter outing.

Potential limitations

• Hayden Juenger threw 36 pitches on Sunday and that’s sometimes the range where a manager will give a guy a second day, so he might not be on the card for tonight.

Quick takeaway:

• Toronto has the pieces they need, including two rested lefties in Adam Macko and Mason Fluharty, to handle this one.

What to Watch Today

• Can Ronald Acuña Jr. make it five straight games with a home run?

• The only Braves hitters with a positive mark off of splitters this season are Ronald Acuña Jr. (0.9 RV/100), Dominic Smith (3.6), Michael Harris II (3.5), and not-in-the-lineup Mauricio Dubón (4.1). Can the other guys who have struggled off of them avoid the whiffs tonight?

  • Both Matt Olson (+2.1) and Austin Riley (+6.7) hit splitters last year, so maybe this is just a small sample size issue with their 2026 performance.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8 runs). This one comes down to Atlanta’s offense, for me - can they figure out the Gausman splitter?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Not for his ability to go from a Cy Young-winning starting pitcher to a lockdown closer (and back to a starter), as he did in his playing career, but for his ability to curse Spencer Strider.

Back in 2025, as Strider was coming back from his elbow surgery, Smoltz went on Atlanta-area radio to address the youngster’s growth as a pitcher.

“I wish, for his sake, he didn’t feel like he had to throw 100 every time,” Smoltz said. “He has special stuff, but it's about locating it, not overpowering everyone.”

And with that wish, the monkey’s paw curled.

Strider couldn’t throw 100 mph anymore. The righthander averaged ‘just’ 95.5 mph last year, and with two fewer inches of induced vertical break than in his dominant 2023 season.

That same season that he broke Smoltz’s single-season strikeout record of 276 punchouts1 with 281, Strider was averaging 97.2 on his four-seam fastball with 18.4 inches IVB.

Strider’s high-90s average velo hasn’t returned in 2026. But in some ways, he’s a better pitcher than he was in 2023. Let’s talk about it.

Sequencing matters

2023 Spencer Strider was a marvel. 97 mph four-seam fastballs with fantastic carry, supplemented by a gyro slider that was one of the best individual pitches in all of baseball.

He was also pretty simple because that’s mostly all he did. Those two pitches combined for 92.7% of everything he threw, supplemented only seldomly by a changeup that, frankly, wasn’t very good.

And Spencer knew it. As he told me after a spring training start in 2024, “As I’ve learned more about my body and biomechanics, I’ve come to understand that [the changeup] is not an easy pitch to throw, mechanically. […] I think the ceiling for it is where it is, and it’s not something I can throw 50% of the time.”

We saw the struggles that a limited arsenal could present in the 2023 postseason. Against Philadelphia, the Phillies deliberately sat on the slider and chose to foul off heaters until they got a breaking ball they could drive. Strider attempted to disrupt the game plan, ramping up his fastball velocity to nearly 100 mph in an attempt to mess with their timing, but Strider gave up three solo homers in a 3-1 Atlanta loss in game four of the NLDS. He just didn’t really have any other options - if they were going to sit on a breaking ball, they’d be roughly on time for a pitch that moves even less in the changeup.

Strider’s since adjusted, adding a curveball ahead of his abbreviated 2024 season. And he’s kept changing since returning from injury, currently throwing his fastball a career-low 49% of the time. The extra usage has gone to the curveball (15%) and changeup (9%), with the curve roughly equal to the slider in usage against lefties.

But despite the deeper pitch mix, Strider is still vulnerable to left-handers. The righty is allowing left-handers to hit .206/.308/.500, with five of his six homers allowed coming off of southpaws. And that slug is the problem - the batting average and on base are both within five points of his record-setting 2023 season, but with nearly 150 additional points of slug attached to them.

Diving into the specifics of the five homers, they were all pullside shots, but that’s where the similarities end. The three homers off fastballs all came from different parts of the zone, while one came on a slider middle-down and one came on a curveball off the plate down that Kyle Stowers dropped the bathead to get underneath and golf out of Miami’s loanDepot Park.

Strider’s always been a bit flyball and homer-prone; both of those conditions are worse this year. Strider’s flyball rate is a career-high 52.2%, coinciding with a 4.7% homer rate that is worse than the one that led to 2025’s disappointing 4.45 ERA.

It’s a concerning picture, especially in light of last year’s struggles.

When Estimators Fight

But sample sizes matter, right? And the sample sizes say that Strider’s been exceptionally unlucky in a few different areas.

The first is that the batted ball results on some of his individual pitches don’t line up with the expected results. This is mostly manifesting in the slugging numbers; Strider’s fastball is allowing 49 more points of slug than the ‘expected’, while the slider is carrying 238 more points of slug over expected and the curveball has 206 points more.

Some of this is due to the batted ball profile - remember, pulled fly balls in the air put up the most slugging percentage of any type of batted ball - but a lot of it is just due to sample size shenanigans. There have been just eleven batted balls each for the slider and curveball, while the fastball’s only seen 43 put into play.

It’s a reason that Strider’s expected ERA of 2.90 is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA of 3.77.

The walk rate of 13.4% is a bit misleading, as well, influenced by his first start in Colorado. At elevation and unable to command the fastball or slider as a result, Strider walked five in his 3.1 innings. Since that Coors Field appearance, Strider has 12 walks in 27.2 innings; still not a great mark at 11.1%, but a full 2% lower than his listed season average.

It’s safe to assume the walks will come down the farther he gets away from Coors. The home runs likely will, assuming a more standard batted ball distribution - Strider’s 28.6% pulled air rate is in the bottom 15 in all of baseball. Not percentile, but total. MLB average is 16.8%, and he’s hovered right around that in his best years.

“But wait,” the rhetorical device says, allowing me to explain something else. “His FIP is really unsightly at 4.66. Don’t all ERA estimators matter?”

Just like the inhabitants of Animal Farm, some ERA estimators matter more than most. The problem with using FIP to evaluate a small sample size for Spencer Strider is that the stat is designed to isolate the exact things he’s struggled with, as FIP considers only aspects that the pitcher directly controls: walks, strikeouts, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. When you’re suffering from both an outlier home run rate and an altitude-influenced walk rate, your FIP is going to be naturally inflated.

Just correcting for the home run rate, as xFIP does, shows an immediate reduction to 3.78, almost exactly in line with his actual 3.77.

If you think this is a lot of different ERA estimators, we haven’t even touched SIERA, Deserved ERA (dERA) or Deserved Run Average (DRA), Forecasted Run Average (FRA), and Predictive Classified Run Average (pCRA), which is sadly no longer available as the creator was hired by an MLB team and everything he had created became proprietary.

So, what should we expect from Strider going forward?

Setting proper expectations

This current version of Strider straddles what he used to be in 2023 and what he was last season, where he finished with a poor (for him) 4.55 ERA.

The fastball’s not averaging 97 like in 2023, but it does have the same shape from an induced vertical break perspective (if you throw out the Colorado start).

He’s not missing as many bats with his slider as he was in 2023, but he’s supplemented with a curveball that sports similar whiff rates (51.7%) to that previous slider (55.3%).

Strider’s walking more batters than in 2023, but he’s also allowing a lower batting average and a lower hard-hit rate at less-optimal launch angles.

The version of Spencer Strider that struck out 281 hitters may never fully return. Pitchers don’t undergo elbow surgery and simply rewind themselves back to an earlier version.

But that doesn’t mean Atlanta needs that version.

What Strider appears to be becoming is something slightly different: a more complete pitcher.

The 2023 version was built around overwhelming hitters with a fastball-slider combination that bordered on unfair. This version uses four pitches. He’s changing speeds more often. He’s creating different looks against left-handed hitters. He’s learning how to navigate outings when the fastball isn’t sitting 98.

The strikeout totals may never reach 281 again. The fastball may never average 97.2 mph again.

But if the walks normalize, the home-run rate regresses toward his career norms, and the expanded pitch mix continues to develop, the Braves could end up with something almost as valuable.

Not the most dominant version of Spencer Strider, the most complete one.

And that’s a pretty terrifying thought for the rest of baseball.

It’s incredibly rare for a team to have too much depth at a position for very long. The Boston Red Sox were expected to trade one of their outfielders last winter, but defied expectations by holding on to all five of them. Now, with Roman Anthony having missed 25 days and counting with a wrist injury, they’re able to give everyday playing time to CF Ceddanne Rafaela, LF Jarren Duran, RF Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida, who normally enters the lineup as the designated hitter.

When it’s not an injury, it’s inefficiency making the decision for you.

The Braves are about to need to make their own decision after Sunday’s news that starter Hurston Waldrep is starting a rehab assignment this week. Waldrep, who underwent arthroscopic surgery in spring training to remove loose bodies from his elbow, has been throwing bullpens in North Port for the past few weeks. Having just completed an “up-down”, a live batting practice that simulates a two-inning outing, and sitting 96-99 with his fastball, Waldrep’s about three weeks away from being ready to rejoin the major league roster.

What do the Braves do with the righty? Let’s talk about it.

The Schedule Might Save Everyone

Atlanta’s had several extended stretches on the schedule, opening the season with thirteen games in thirteen days and then doing thirteen games in thirteen days again in May.

And the schedule doesn’t get better this month, with the Braves facing another long stretch. Atlanta has nine consecutive games, with the last three being out west in San Diego, followed by an off day and another road series in San Francisco. Despite the off day, the travel demands effectively make it one continuous road trip, so it’s a possibility that Atlanta plans to go to their six-man rotation again for this stretch.

If that happens, there’s an easy solution to the ‘problem’ of Hurston Waldrep coming back and needing a rotation spot - give him the 6th spot and punt the decision to the start of July.

The likely tweak here is moving Bryce Elder around - when possible, the Braves have attempted to keep him on a schedule of only four day between starts, which Bryce prefers. Of his league-leading 12 starts, only three have come on additional rest, with two of those happening in the last two weeks. The performance numbers, small sample size that they are, show that the righty is slightly better when he stays on schedule:

4 days rest: 3-2, 2.66 ERA, .203/.283/.273 w/ 2 HR allowed (1.04%), 8.7 K/9, 2.71 SO/W
5 days rest: 0-1, 2.89 ERA, .222/.260/.389 w/ 3 HR allowed (3.9%), 4.8 K/9, 2.50 SO/W

For ease of math, let’s say that Waldrep returns on June 22nd, halfway through the team’s 13-game stretch and the start of the road portion. The rotation could look like this, projecting forward:

Bryce Elder
Grant Holmes
Chris Sale
Martín Pérez
Spencer Strider
Hurston Waldrep

(Note: This is not a skill-based SP1-SP6 ranking, but rather rooted in the current order as of this Tuesday’s start versus Toronto.)

The team would be required to drop one reliever to accommodate a sixth starter, having the option of either optioning middle reliever Dylan Dodd or long man Anthony Molina out of the final spot the team’s rotated through the last few weeks. Atlanta would still have both Reynaldo López and Didier Fuentes, former (and future, per Alex Anthopoulos on Sunday) starters that could provide length if any of the members of the rotation went short in their outing.

The Case Against Martín Pérez

Veteran Martín Pérez was added this spring on a minor-league deal, the only real rotation addition the team made this winter. Atlanta’s faith in the lefty has been rewarded so far, with a 2.79 ERA that’s better than the estimators (4.30 xERA, 4.11 FIP) but still more than acceptable for a backend arm.

Pérez does it mostly through locations, sequencing, and guile, sporting a strikeout rate of only 17.9% in the rotation and a Stuff+ of 88. That strikeout rate is the lowest for any of Atlanta’s starters this season, just behind the now-optioned JR Ritchie.

The argument against Pérez comes down to two questions: sustainability and long-term value. Can Pérez continue outperforming his inputs when he’s averaging just 90.0 mph on his fastballs and his primary pitch is a changeup? Given that he can’t reliably miss bats or induce chase, it’s a profile that’s reliant on weak, groundball contact.

Given that Pérez has already pitched out of the bullpen three times this season, Atlanta knows the transition is workable. Moving him to the bullpen would allow the team to be insulated from a regression in his results, as well as add another lefty to the pen, one that’s not terrible at generating groundballs and can cover multiple innings if needed.

The other reason to potentially move Pérez to the pen is the long-term rotation plan. Pérez is 35 and on a one-year deal, while Holmes and Waldrep are 30 and 24, respectively, and are both under two years of service time. If Alex Anthopoulos is weighing the team’s future rotations, in 2027, 2028, and beyond, both Waldrep and Holmes project to potentially be that group, but Pérez does not. We know from Anthopoulos’ comments this offseason that part of the reason the team set such a high standard for a rotation addition - the infamous “impact starter” comment - was that they wanted to avoid blocking Grant Holmes, Reynaldo López, and top prospects like JR Ritchie and Owen Murphy.

Put simply, Pérez isn’t in the team’s long-term plans, while Holmes and Waldrep are.

The Case Against Grant Holmes

The reasons to move Holmes to the bullpen are rooted in baseball reasons, not roster projections. A frustrating but persistent tendency Holmes has shown this season is an inability to contain offense on a second turn through the order. It’s a supercharged version of the third-time-through-the-order penalty that has destined marginal starters to mostly “five-and-dive” outings.

Here are the stark performance splits for Holmes’ first and second times through the order as a starting pitcher:

1st PA in game: .180/.263/.292, 2 HR in 99 PAs, 2.50 SO/W
2nd PA in game: .302/.371/.640, 8 HR in 97 PAs, 1.90 SO/W

Opposing hitters transform from Nick Allen to Yordan Alvarez when they see Holmes a second time in the same game.

(Holmes has great stats the 3rd time through the order, but this is classic survivorship bias: He’s either cruising and stays in the game, or he’s getting shelled and gets lifted, so the numbers aren’t a true representative sample.)

Moving Holmes back into his original “utility pitcher” role might be the highest and best use of the right-hander, the same one in which he put up a career-high 1.2 WAR in 2024. Atlanta used him for everything, from starting to piggybacking, covering single innings of relief or bridging a short start into the standard bullpen usage.

The problem with being the most flexible pitcher on the staff is that you’re often the easiest one to move. The Braves may conclude that he’s the pitcher most likely to move to relief without sacrificing effectiveness, given Holmes' proven history of doing just that.

The Case Against Waldrep

The obvious assumption among the fanbase and even this article so far has been “Who leaves when Waldrep returns?”

But what if he’s not good enough?

We haven’t actually seen Waldrep pitch in a meaningful game since last summer, and assuming he’ll immediately reclaim a rotation spot just because he’s throwing in the high-90s in bullpens may be getting ahead of ourselves.

This feels like the worst-case scenario, since Waldrep is optionable… for the final time this year. If he spends 20 days in the minors, then he’s required to be carried on the major league roster out of spring training next season or exposed to waivers.

If Waldrep’s return hits a snag, either on his stuff or his ability to pitch deep enough in games to rejoin the rotation, he might get optioned to the minors. It could be for development reasons, or pitch-mix reasons, or even just to protect him from too much of a workload as he works back from his elbow scope.

(For the record, this same question will come up later this year with AJ Smith-Shawver, who is also holding just one minor-league option and will be returning from elbow surgery sometime after the All-Star Break.)

What Will Atlanta Actually Do?

This Braves front office under Alex Anthopoulos is a known quantity in several ways. We know they prioritize depth, a vestige from 2021’s catcher catastrophe and last season’s rotation disaster.

We know that under Walt Weiss, the team has leaned into positional flexibility, moving starters back and forth to the bullpen as their performance or the team's needs dictate.

All of those signs point toward a six-man rotation, at least initially, and delaying the decision until they have more data about how Waldrep is faring in the majors (or until an injury makes the decision for them).

And if the Braves eventually do have to make a choice, Holmes feels like the most natural fit for the role they’ve increasingly valued: the Swiss Army knife. Atlanta has spent the last two seasons turning flexible pitchers into weapons, and Holmes may simply be too useful in that role to keep tethered to a traditional starter’s schedule.

A year ago, Atlanta was searching for enough healthy arms to survive the summer. Now they’re approaching a point where they may have too many viable starters.

Waldrep’s rehab assignment doesn’t create a problem for the Braves. It creates options.

The difficult part isn’t finding a fifth starter anymore.

It’s deciding which starter you trust least.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

This was a back-and-forth affair that wasn’t decided until the 9th.

Atlanta entered the frame down by three, but manager Walt Weiss almost immediately started pulling all his levers in an attempt to engineer a rally.

After Austin Riley just missed a center-cut fastball, flying out to left to open the inning, Weiss sent out his first pinch-hitter of the frame, slugger Dominic Smith. Facing righty Tony Santillán, Smith worked a six-pitch walk, getting down 0-2 before holding off on four consecutive pitches off the plate away. Mike Yastrzemski then grabbed a bat, replacing shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, and shot a 2-2 fastball up and away to left-center. Smith, in the game for Jorge Mateo, was only able to advance to second.

Weiss’s decision to insert Dom for Mateo is worth questioning here. In a vacuum, going off the back of their baseball cards, it makes sense to send Dom in for a clutch at-bat late. But in the context of this season, where Mateo has been hot enough recently (.387 avg/1.086 OPS over the last 15 games) to get three straight starts at shortstop and then time at DH today (where he homered earlier in this game), it’s a bit confusing. It’s not a “this guy’s been successful against Santillan thing”, either - both men are 0-1 against the reliever, although Dom’s groundout was yesterday and Mateo’s strikeout was in 2021. Letting Dom PH for the struggling Austin Riley would have made more sense, in my opinion.

Per The Athletic’s Jesús Cano, Weiss made the PH decision for handedness reasons. “I hit for Mateo, who’s been one of the hottest hitters on our team. I think the lefties are a much better option against Santillán right there, he's really tough on righties.” The stats bear this out, with Santillán allowing a .311 wOBA to lefties going back to 2023 and a .279 to righties.

After catcher Sandy León flew out to shallow left field for the second out (and no, they couldn’t have pinch hit for him, as Chadwick Tromp was already out of the game), the lineup turned over to Ronald Acuña Jr. Ronald, who already homered in this game, singled home Smith to lower the deficit to two runs, 6-4.

This is when Cincy went to a lefty, Sam Moll, to try and preserve the win.

Moll was greeted by one of MLB’s hottest hitters, Michael Harris II, who wasn’t going to go down easily. Harris worked a nine-pitch at-bat, drawing his second walk of the game (the 10th time in his career he’s drawn two wlks in the same game) and loading the bases for Matt Olson.

The slugger, however, was unable to complete the rally. Olson got a center-cut sinker and was just barely on top of it, grounding out to third to end the game.

Today’s Player of the Game

It’s hard to not, once again, give it to Ronald Acuña Jr.

The slugger hit a leadoff homer on the very first pitch of the game, which feels like it is one of those ‘tone-setting’ at-bats that changes the outcome of the game; this might be a newsletter for an off day. He picked up his second hit and RBI of the day with the aforementioned single in the 9th inning.

Acuña is now one of just four players since 1898 to have five (or more) homers and four (or more) stolen bases in a four-game span, per MLB’s Sarah Langs, joining some notable names:

2024 Shohei Ohtani (won MVP)
1987 Eric Davis
1958 Willie Mays (MVP runner-up)

It’s worth pointing out that Ronald’s defense in right field was downright bad today. He was charged with a fielding error after bobbling a ball on the transfer, which allowed a run to score, and had two other balls go over his head and off the wall. He’s never graded out that well in the outfield, mainly due to subpar jumps, and these plays definitely won’t help his defensive ratings.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to Spencer Strider and his five innings of three ER ball (a deep dive on him coming this week), Atlanta’s offense may merit some conversation after this one.

The Braves have just seven hits today, and yet were in a position to win this game in the 9th. They drew more walks (six) than strikeouts (five) and had eleven hard-hit balls, with every starter but Michael Harris II (surprisingly) having at least one.

Despite it being their less-than-ideal LHP-optimized lineup, Atlanta was able to consistently threaten Cincinnati pitchers and force them to bring their stuff into the zone. Braves hitters had 28 balls in play, but several bad luck/random variance outs, including a lineout from Ha-Seong Kim with an expected batting average of .750 and one from Matt Olson with a .620. They had only thirteen whiffs in the entire game, on 63 swings, and showed a pretty sustainable process at the plate that would have likely led to a different outcome if you played this game with the exact same batted balls 10 or 100 more times.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are off on Monday before starting a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays at home. Here are those pitching matchups:

Tue: Bryce Elder (4-3, 2.50) vs Kevin Gausman (4-3, 3.13)
Wed: Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.95) vs LHP Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.65)
Thu: Chris Sale (8-3, 2.014) vs TBA (officially) but lines up to be Trey Yesavage (2-2, 2.19)

Game Info

• First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET

• Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 75° and partly sunny, wind NNE at 6 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
DH Jorge Mateo
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Chadwick Tromp

Quick thoughts:

• Ha-Seong Kim and Austin Riley both return to the lineup, pushing Dubón to the outfield and Jorge Mateo into a “half day” at designated hitter. Would have preferred Mateo at second and Ozzie getting the half day, but at least he’s still in the lineup.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup

CF Blake Dunn
SS Elly De La Cruz
LF JJ Bleday
3B Sal Stewart
DH Eugenio Suarez
1B Nathaniel Lowe
2B Spencer Steer
RF Will Benson
C P.J. Higgins

Quick thoughts:

• It’s back to most of the regulars for Cincinnati, except for behind the plate. Tyler Stephenson gets a rest day, with P.J. Higgins getting the start.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (3-0, 3.46)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.46 ERA / 2.74 xERA / 5.33 FIP

• 31.1% K / 14.6% BB / 16.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 43% four-seamer, 22% curveball, 21% slider, 15% changeup

• vs RHH: 56% four-seamer, 35% slider, 8% curveball, 1% changeup

Who to watch:

• Once again, we’re looking out for Eugenio Suarez here, who is 3-4 with two RBI off of Strider. Surprisingly (or not, given the timing of Strider’s elbow injury), Elly De La Cruz’s first plate appearance today will be the first time he’s ever faced Strider.

Opposing Starter: LHP Nick Lodolo (1-1, 5.57 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.57 ERA / 6.35 xERA / 6.44 FIP

• 19.6 K% / 9.8 BB% / 9.8% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Curveball (26%, 82.4 mph)

• Changeup (26%, 88.6 mph)

• Four-seamer (25%, 94.3 mph)

• Sinker (23%, 94.2 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A pretty standard pitching plan - four-seamers early, sinker/changeup when behind, and curveballs when ahead/two strikes.

vs RHH: Changeup dominant mix that ramps up the sinker and changeup when behind, four-seamers and curveballs when ahead, and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• It’s a pretty basis sequencing - nothing surprising or unexpected here. Feels like it should be pretty straightforward to take advantage of a struggling starter today.

  • Famous last words, I know.

• Virtually every Braves starter has seen Lodolo at least once, but without a lot of success - Michael Harris and Eli White are both 1-2, while Austin Riley is 1-3 and Ha-Seong Kim is 1-4. Nobody has taken him deep…yet.

Braves Bullpen Status

Sure am glad tomorrow’s an off day!

Likely available:

• Reynaldo López and Dylan Dodd should both be able to go today, as (hopefully) can Didier Fuentes and recently called-up longman Anthony Molina.

Used recently:

• Raisel Iglesias threw just 15 pitches to seal last night’s win, so he’s likely available today if needed.

Potential limitations:

• Tyler Kinley’s pitched in three straight games, so he’s almost certainly unavailable. Robert Suarez has pitched a back-to-back, but he’s at just 21 pitches and when Kinley was in this same situation (23 pitches after a back-to-back), they used him a third day in a row so don’t count anything out. Lee’s also coming off a B2B, but on a 35-pitch workload that makes it less likely he’s used today.

Quick takeaway:

• Walt Weiss has enough pieces to handle almost every situation that might come up today, although it might require some mixing and matching.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Lefty Sam Moll hasn’t thrown in nearly a week, so expect to see him today.

Used recently

• All three of the leverage arms (per the FanGraphs depth chart) got in yesterday’s game, but didn’t pitch deep enough that they can’t come back today.

Potential limitations

• It doesn’t appear that anyone should be down, based on pitch counts, but it’s possible someone got hot and then never entered a game. Getting “dry humped”, as it’s known, wouldn’t reflect on the usage charts.

Quick takeaway:

• For having lost two leverage relievers to the injured list in the last three days, Cincinnati’s sitting pretty with their availability in this one.

What to Watch Today

• What kind of MVP-caliber heroics will we get from Ronald Acuña Jr. in the finale?

• Several of the Braves’ regulars have struggled against curveballs this season, most notably Michael Harris II and Austin Riley. With the small sample sizes we’re talking about here, is this more struggles against one specific player’s curveball (thinking Ben Brown of the Cubs here) or with the pitch type in general? We’ll get more info on that today.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). This one comes down to Spencer Strider, for me - if he can keep the ball in the yard, the Braves should cruise to a sweep, but if he gets got by any of this middle-of-the-order sluggers, it could be a long day for the Braves.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

I’m struggling here.

If you’re looking at this game from strictly a “biggest change to win probability” standpoint, it was likely Jorge Mateo’s 5th-inning solo homer.

That homer pushed Atlanta’s chances of winning the game over 50%, and it wouldn’t fall back below 50% for the rest of the contest.

But at the moment, it felt like the bottom of the fourth inning.

The game was tied at 2-2 and Elly De La Cruz had just hit a triple to the right field corner. It was a good piece of hitting, lacing a 3-2 backdoor cutter down the line and getting a fortuitous bounce out of the corner.

Martín Pérez was unimpressed.

The veteran lefty went back on the attack, getting Sal Stewart to hit a soft grounder to Mauricio Dubón at third; after looking back De La Cruz, Dubón made the throw to Matt Olson at first for the second out of the inning. Pérez then got Eugenio Suarez to strikeout through a great combination of locations and sequencing - he mixed various fastballs up and/or inside, getting ahead of Suarez 1-2, before watching Suarez hold off on two changeups down and away. Pérez then came back up and in with a sinker just above the zone, with Suarez clearly expecting a cutter in and swinging through the sinker, which ran back over the plate.

It’s not a common usage of a sinker, but if it was intentional, just a fantastic combination of pitch and location to get out of a jam. Atlanta would go on to score a run in the next inning and never trail for the rest of this one.

Today’s Player of the Game

Running away with over 92% of the vote, it’s Ronald Acuña Jr.

Atlanta’s former MVP continued his torrid stretch this week, hitting two homers while stealing two bags and drawing a walk. Per OptaStats, Ronald is the first player in MLB’s Modern Era (since 1900) to have four home runs, four stolen bases, and four walks over a three-game span.

The way Ronald hit the homers is notable - both of them coming off early count sinkers. The process on the stolen bases was notable, as well - both coming in the same at-bat, over a span of four pitches.

To think that the 2026 Atlanta Braves could both be the first team in MLB to 40 wins and to do it before June 1st for the first time in the franchise’s long and storied history, mostly without this version of Ronald Acuña Jr. That should strike fear in the rest of Major League Baseball.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to the bullpen continuing to impress, with four innings of scoreless and walkless relief with one hit and three strikeouts, we need to talk about shortstop Jorge Mateo.

The offseason free agent made his third consecutive start at short tonight, just days after manager Walt Weiss declared that the position would be handled on a “day-to-day” basis after the early struggles of Ha-Seong Kim. But after hitting a home run tonight and flashing his impressive physical tools, including a cannon of a throw to get speedster Elly De La Cruz on a batted ball up the middle and beating out a throw to first with league-leading sprint speed, Walt Weiss admitted the coaching staff won’t be pulling Mateo out of the lineup anytime soon.

“(If) he’s swinging the bat like this, it’s tough to take him out (of the lineup)”, Weiss told Jesús Cano of The Athletic after the game. While Mateo’s .420 BABIP won’t continue all season, I’d imagine the Braves will find ways to continue getting him at-bats until the regression monster catches up to him.

After tonight’s home run, Mateo is hitting .316/.358/.487 across his first 76 at-bats of the season and is in line to get significantly more over the coming days.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Atlanta’s already won the series and is in position to pick up the sweep. Spencer Strider (3-0, 3.46) gets the ball tomorrow, facing off with LHP Nick Lodolo (1-1, 5.57) at 1:40 PM ET.

(Programming note: Auburn’s elimination game in the Auburn Regional is scheduled for 2:00PM, so there won’t be a Postcast on Sunday and the game recap might be delayed.)

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

• Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

• TV: Fox (National broadcast)

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 72° and partially sunny, wind NE at 8 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Mauricio Dubón
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s giving a third consecutive start at shortstop to the red-hot Jorge Mateo, while giving the ‘in-the-thick-of-it’ Austin Riley a day off.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup

CF Dane Myers
SS Elly De La Cruz
DH Sal Stewart
3B Eugenio Suarez
1B Spencer Steer
LF JJ Bleday
RF Blake Dunn
C Tyler Stephenson
2B Matt McLain

Quick thoughts:

• The red-hot Nathaniel Lowe sits with a lefty on the mound for Atlanta, while Matt McLain checks back in at second base as Cincinnati hopes he finds his pre-surgery form.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (2-3, 2.70)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.70 ERA / 4.01 xERA / 3.83 FIP

• 21.6% K / 8.1% BB / 13.5% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 52% sinker, 27% changeup, 10% curveball, 8% cutter, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 35% changeup, 26% cutter, 19% sinker, 11% curveball, 9% four-seamer

Who to watch:

• There is a definitive lack of experience against Pérez on Cincinnati’s youth-laden roster, but Eugenio Suarez is 6-11 with a homer and five RBI off of the southpaw.

Opposing Starter: RHP Brady Singer (2-4, 6.26 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 6.26 ERA / 6.07 xERA / 6.52 FIP

• 15.7 K% / 5.6 BB% / 10.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (46%, 91.1 mph)

• Slider (33%, 82.4 mph)

• Sweeper (12%, 81.1 mph)

• Cutter (6%, 86.8 mph)

• Four-seamer (3%, 90.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Sinker/slider guy that leans on the sinker more when behind in the count and with two strikes (which is an odd combination). Cutter is more of an early-count pitch.

vs RHH: Sinker/slider dominant mix that will cut back on sinkers for sweepers when ahead and slightly increase cutters when behind, but otherwise sticks to base sequencing in all situations.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Singer’s faced virtually the entire Atlanta lineup, minus the catchers, with mixed results. While he’s held Ozzie Albies to two hits and a .473 OPS in ten ABs and Mike Yastrzemski to one hit in eight ABs, Matt Olson and Dom Smith have combined for a three homers and each have an OPS over 1.000 off the veteran.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Raisel Iglesias hasn’t pitched since Tuesday and will be the go-to for the 9th in a save situation today.

Used recently:

• Both Dylan Lee and Robert Suarez got work in last night’s win, but having thrown 15 (or less) pitches, they can likely both come back if needed today.

Potential limitations:

• Coming back likely isn’t in the cards for both Didier Fuentes (28 pitches yesterday) and Tyler Kinley (back-to-back), with both guys down except for case of emergency.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have the pieces needed to secure an early series win this evening.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Most of Cincinnati’s pen is rested and available.

Used recently

• Caleb Ferguson came in to rescue Yunior Marte in yesterday’s fateful 6th inning, but he can probably come back despite a three-day workload of 34 pitches. Marte himself threw 21 and can probably return, as well.

Potential limitations

• Zach Maxwell threw just 19 pitches yesterday, but with a three-day workload of 48 pitches, I’d like to imagine he’s down except for an emergency.

Quick takeaway:

• The Reds have the pieces to lock down a win…if Tito Francona deploys them correctly.

What to Watch Today

• Do the Braves try and find an opportunity to get Austin Riley into today’s lineup, or is this truly an off day for the struggling slugger?

• Can Martín Pérez, who is roughly average at inducing groundballs, keep Cincinnati’s bats from launching a bad location out of the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park?

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game, as is expected in Cincinnati (O/U 9.5 runs).

Let’s Talk About It

There is no Braves Today livestream for this one, as I’m currently in a pressbox for Auburn’s game two in the Auburn Regional, trying to beat NC State to stay alive in the loser’s bracket. They opened the first inning with eight runs, though, so the vibes are much better than yesterday. I’ll be home for full coverage of this game, though, which includes a Postcast and Today’s Three Things.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The top of the 6th inning.

Holding a narrow 4-3 lead, the Braves had finally gotten opposing starter Chris Paddack out of the game. And with a well-rested bullpen, Reds manager Tito Francona chose to go with a youngster who was called up from the minors just this morning in Yunior Marte.

It was not the right call.

Dom Smith opened the frame with a single off the flamethrower, advancing to second after Austin Riley wore 97 on the elbow pad. Mike Yastrzemski, who’s still fired up by the color red from the series in Boston, punished the Reds with an RBI double to the right field corner that scored Smith from second. Jorge Mateo did his part, dropping a flare over the infield that scored Riley from third and allowed everyone, including Marte, to advance one extra base when the throw from left field went home in a futile attempt to get Riley.

Marte rebounded with a strikeout of Chadwick Tromp, but was instructed to intentionally walk Ronald Acuña Jr. (who homered to open the game) before being pulled.

About that.

I understand, in a vacuum, choosing not to face Acuña. Former MVP, hit a homer to open this game, all that. Makes sense.

But new reliever Caleb Ferguson was asked to get out the hotter-than-Georgia-asphalt Michael Harris II, who is 11 for his last 30 and has a .603 slug over the last 15 games, and wasn’t up to the task. Harris ripped a 1-0 sinker at 109 mph back up the middle, scoring both Yastrzemski and Mateo and turning what was a one-run game into a comfortable five-run lead for Atlanta.

The Reds never came closer than five runs down the rest of the night.

Today’s Player of the Game

With 73% of the vote on the postcast, Harris was the easy choice here.

He finished with three hits and three RBI tonight, and that’s WITHOUT the first-inning home run that was robbed by right fielder Blake Dunn.

Harris sits at 1.9 fWAR, tied for 20th in MLB and the 3rd-best mark among NL centerfielders. As Jake and I discussed on the Postcast, Harris is contending with Andy Pages of the LA Dodgers for the starting spot on this summer’s All-Star Team, and with Braves Country behind him, should make his first Midsummer Classic through either fan voting or being deserving enough of a managerial selection.

What You’ll Be Talking About

With all due respect to Atlanta’s offense, who saw all but two players either record a RBI or score a run, we’re talking about Grant Holmes here.

The righthander was visibly frustrated in the dugout after being pulled with two outs in the 5th. Manager Walt Weiss confirmed after the game that he had given Holmes one additional hitter, leftfielder JJ Bleday, to find a third out of the inning. But Bleday singled, putting runners on 1st and 3rd, so Weiss called on Didier Fuentes to clean up the mess. (Fuentes eventually did, but only after grooving a 0-2 fastball to Sal Stewart, who laved it into right for an RBI single).

The issue, as always for Holmes, was turning the lineup over. The first time through, the righthander issued one walk and allowed one single while striking out three. But once Reds’ hitters got to see him again, they started to find more success to the tune of two homers, a double, and three singles.

Jake brought up a great point on the Postcast - Grant adjusted his sequencing the second time through, minimizing his much-improved fastball in favor of his slider and, in a surprise, his seldom-used kick change.

The adjustments that Holmes has made this season include more fastballs and sliders, mostly at the expense of his once-dominant cutter, while also adding a sinker (which he went away from after the first time through the order).

If Holmes isn’t able to figure out his optimal sequencing after turning over a lineup, he’s the first man out of the rotation once either an injured starter returns or the Braves are ready to promote another prospect out of the minors.

Special acknowledgment goes to the bullpen, who replaced Holmes with 4.1 innings of two-hit, scoreless ball with five strikeouts and no walks.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

Atlanta’s looking to win the series early on Saturday, with veteran lefty Martín Pérez (2-3, 2.70) getting the ball opposite Brady Singer (2-4, 6.26) at 7:15 PM on Fox.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET

• Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 78° and partially sunny, wind NE at 6 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jorge Mateo
C Chadwick Tromp

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s giving a second consecutive start at shortstop to the red-hot Jorge Mateo. Man, I enjoy knowing that the front office and coaching staff read Braves Today.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup

RF Blake Dunn
SS Elly De La Cruz
LF JJ Bleday
3B Sal Stewart
DH Eugenio Suarez
1B Nate Lowe
2B Spencer Steer
C Tyler Stephenson
CF TJ Freidl

Quick thoughts:

• This is definitely the least optimal defensive infield, with Stewart at third base and Steer at second. Let’s see if it comes back to bite Cincinnati.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.78)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.78 ERA / 4.11 xERA / 4.84 FIP

• 21.5% K / 10.8% BB / 10.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 37% four-seamer, 34% slider, 14% curveball, 7% each of changeup and cutter, 2% sinker

• vs RHH: 45% slider, 32% four-seamer, 14% sinker, 5% curveball, 2% changeup, 1% cutter

Who to watch:

• While Atlanta fans always need to be mindful of Elly De La Cruz (who is 4-7 off of Holmes), it’s important to point out that Holmes was the starter in the infamous four-homer game for Eugenio Suarez in Arizona last season, with the third baseman getting three of them off of Holmes and the last off of Raisel Iglesias.

  • TJ Friedl has fallen out of favor recently for Cincinnati, but he’s 2-4 with two solo shots off of Holmes so they might find a way to get him into today’s game.

Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Paddack (0-6, 6.86 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 6.86 ERA / 4.31 xERA / 4.44 FIP

• 18.1 K% / 7.3 BB% / 10.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (43%, 92.8 mph)

• Changeup (27%, 84.8 mph)

• Cutter (12%, 85.80 mph)

• Curveball (10%, 76.8 mph)

• Sweeper (10%, 79.3 mph)

• Sinker (7%, 92.9 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Well-sequenced kitchen mix guy without exploitable tendencies, other than a slight uptick in changeup when ahead/with two strikes.

vs RHH: Well-sequenced mix, but with more defined usage patterns. Four-seamer use ramps up when ahead, at expense of sweeper, while changeup usage increases when ahead and with two strikes. Throws more cutters early in the count than late, while the curveball is virtually never thrown while behind and the slider is never used after the first two pitches of the at-bat.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Paddack faced the Braves in April while a member of the Marlins, taking the loss after allowing two earned runs and not making it out of the fifth inning. He gave up a homer to second baseman Ozzie Albies and struck out four with no walks.

  • The only hitter with more success off of Paddack than Ozzie’s .364 is Mike Yastrzemski, who has three homers and four RBI while batting .400 off of Paddack in his 25 ABs.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Four of the leverage arms are fresh, not having pitched since Tuesday.

Used recently:

• Tyler Kinley’s the only leverage arm with recent usage, having thrown 14 pitches last night, but that won’t preclude him from coming back tonight if needed.

Potential limitations:

• Dylan Dodd’s coming off a back-to-back and should be down today, but that’s the only outright unavailability expected tonight.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves are good to go for the opener.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Everyone.

Used recently

• Zach Maxwell threw 29 pitches on Wednesday, but as a veteran reliever, he’s likely available if needed (although probably not first out the bullpen door on the pitching plan).

Potential limitations

• Cincinnati doesn’t project to have any pitchers unavailable in their bullpen.

Quick takeaway:

• The Reds are prepared for anything the Braves can throw at them late…but with no set closer, can they hold this notoriously late-inning offense at bay long enough to secure a win?

What to Watch Today

• Can Paddack give Cincinnati some length, or will their bullpen get burned early?

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game, as is expected in Cincinnati (O/U 9.5 runs). Let’s hope the Braves don’t get Eugenio’d again.

Let’s Talk About It

There is no Braves Today livestream for this one, as I’m currently in a pressbox watching the Auburn Regional. Should still be home for full coverage of this game, though.

So far, those moves have gone in very different directions.

Suárez has been phenomenal, posting a 0.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP while becoming a huge part of one of the best bullpens in baseball. Yastrzemski, meanwhile, looked completely lost to begin the season.

Through the end of April, Yaz slashed just .209/.280/.275 with a .555 OPS and 60 wRC+. Across 100 plate appearances, he managed only 19 hits with four doubles, one triple, and zero home runs. The lack of production, paired with a 25.0% strikeout rate and only an 8.0% walk rate, created some very real frustration across Braves Country.

But as soon as the calendar flipped to May, things started to change.

Since the start of the month, Yastrzemski has slashed .280/.357/.520 with an .877 OPS and 147 wRC+. In just 56 plate appearances, he already has three doubles and three home runs. The strikeouts are still there at 23.2%, but the overall quality of his at-bats has looked significantly better.

So what exactly changed? And is this turnaround actually sustainable?

The biggest issue early on was actually pretty simple: Yastrzemski was hitting far too many balls on the ground.

For his career, Yaz has been a hitter who lifted the ball to success. He owns a career 35.1% ground ball rate and a 64.9% air rate. In 2026, however, his ground-ball rate climbed to a career-high 41.7%, while his air rate dropped to a career-low 58.3%.

Now, on paper, those numbers sit relatively close to league average. But not every hitter is built the same. Mike Yastrzemski is at his best when he is elevating baseballs.

In the three seasons before joining Atlanta, where he posted a 106 wRC+ or better, he hit ground balls just 34.0% of the time while producing a 66.0% air rate. That is who he is as a hitter. When he starts rolling balls over consistently, his offensive profile falls apart quickly.

The encouraging part is that this has started correcting itself.

In May, Yastrzemski cut his ground ball rate in half while nearly doubling his fly ball percentage. The results have followed. His batting average jumped from .209 in March/April to .280 in May. His OPS went from an ugly .555 to .877 in the span of a few weeks.

Of course, hitting the ball in the air only matters if you are actually driving it. That was another major issue early in the season.

Yastrzemski is topping the baseball at a career worst 30.1%, which is 6.7% above his career norm. At the same time, his barrel rate sits at a career low 4.9%, more than five percent below his usual mark. His average launch angle has also dipped to a career-low 16.1 degrees.

That combination is a perfect recipe for weak ground balls. Too many topped baseballs, not enough barrels, and not enough authority behind the contact. That is exactly what Braves fans were watching during the first month of the season.

I also think some of those struggles clearly started creeping into his approach mentally.

For his career, Yastrzemski owns a 63.7% zone swing rate. This season, that number has dropped to 57.5%. Even more concerning, he has been oddly passive on pitches right down the middle.

Throughout his career, pitchers have thrown him “meatballs” only 7.6% of the time, and he has swung at those pitches 72.7% of the time. As expected, hitters usually do not let middle-middle fastballs go by very often. This season, Yastrzemski is actually seeing more pitches down the heart of the plate at a 10.1% rate, but he is swinging at them just 51.6% of the time. That’s a massive drop-off, and it looked like a hitter searching for answers instead of trusting his swing.

Lately, though, it feels like that confidence is finally starting to return.

Over the last two weeks, Yaz has been hitting .304 with a 1.081 OPS, adding two doubles and two home runs. And frankly, the Braves need every bit of it right now.

Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy are still on the IL. Mauricio Dubón and Ozzie Albies have cooled off a bit. Ha-Seong Kim, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Austin Riley are all still struggling at the plate.

Even with those struggles, Atlanta still owns one of the best records in baseball and ranks near the top of the league in several offensive and pitching categories. At the same time, though, anybody watching recently can tell the offense has not looked nearly the same as it did earlier in the season.

After “he who shall not be named” received a full-year suspension, Yastrzemski was suddenly forced into a much larger role than originally expected. Instead of being used mostly in favorable platoon situations, he became a lineup regular almost overnight.

Now with Kim back, Atlanta finally has a little more flexibility again. He and Dubón can help shoulder some of those responsibilities and hopefully allow Yastrzemski to settle back into the role where he is most effective: mashing right-handed pitching.

The Braves still may need to add another bat before the trade deadline. But for now, they desperately need Mike Yastrzemski to keep trending in this direction.

And for the first time all season, it finally looks like that’s possible.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

Atlanta’s big sixth inning.

The Red Sox chased Bryce Elder in the fourth inning of last night’s game, one where they scored six runs on a plethora of base hits (and got some BABIP luck, too).

The Braves were taking notes.

Atlanta picked up five runs in the frame, including chasing reliever Danny Columbe before he recorded a single out. Michael Harris II, who entered the evening hitting .298 with 12 homers and a .846 OPS, dropped a surprise bunt single to open the frame. This clearly rattled Columbe, as he walked Jorge Mateo and Dominic Smith on a combined nine pitches. When Atlanta called on veteran Mike Yastrzemski to replace Eli White, Boston countered with righty Greg Wissert.

They might have been better served to let Columbe have a shot at Yaz.

Yasztremski got down 0-2 before battling back to draw a bases-loaded walk, bringing home Atlanta’s first run of the inning. And then Ronald Acuña Jr. came to the plate.

The same Ronald Acuña Jr. who was on a brutal 1-20 stretch entering this inning. The same Ronald Acuña Jr. who had only two homers and 12 RBI on the season entering the inning.

Now he’s 2-21, and with one more homer and four more RBI.

Ronald got a 0-1 sinker, knee high and over the middle of the plate, and did not miss it. His grand slam was 107.9 off the bat and would have been over the Green Monster and completely out of the ballpark had it not hit one of the marketing signs behind the seats.

It’s his first grand slam since August 1st, 2023, and the fourth of his career.

Atlanta finished the inning quickly after that, flying out three times, but the damage was done and they’d cruise from this point forward.

Today’s Player of the Game

Receiving 80% of the vote on the Postcast, it’s Ronald Acuña Jr.

As I said on the Postcast, it’s amazing that the Braves are where they are in the standings with Acuña putting up just three home runs (tied for 7th on the team) and 16 RBI (8th). Between the slow start of Acuña and the persistent struggles of Austin Riley (who went 0-5 with four strikeouts today), this team’s missing two of their “aircraft carriers” and have still cruised to the best record in baseball at 38-19 with the largest divisional lead (8.5 games) and the second-largest run differential (+103, behind only the Dodgers at +120).

If this is the home run that spurs a return to form for the former MVP, who has been making quality contact recently, has continued to get on base (.358 OBP), and has started stealing more (he’s now up to 10 stolen bases), this offense could reach a higher plane of existence once catcher Drake Baldwin rejoins the lineup in a few weeks.

What You’ll Be Talking About

The offensive approach for both teams.

While they’re not officially tracked anywhere that I can find, I went through the game log and figured out that the two teams combined for 75 foul balls today, 47 alone by Atlanta.

It’s no wonder Chris Sale needed 96 pitches for five innings of work, and Payton Tolle left in the 4th with 94 on his tally. Both pitchers still got theirs, however, with Tolle picking up 18 whiffs and converting them to seven strikeouts, while Sale had eight punchouts on 17 whiffs and a 33% CSW.

But for Atlanta, you were either incredibly successful at the plate today or you had virtually no success at all.

Michael Harris had two hits, including a homer, on three hard-hit balls. Olson had two hits and Ozzie had three (including a homer), each getting two hard-hit balls. Jorge Mateo had three hard-hit balls (two over 100 mph) and two hits, driving in a run and scoring once, while Ronald’s one hard-hit ball was the grand slam. Those players combined for three walks and just four strikeouts.

It’s time for Mateo to get the Dubón treatment and be in the lineup everyday until he cools down. He’s slashing .387/.441/.548 with a homer and four RBI in the last 15 days, but he’s only gotten 31 at-bats in that span. He needs to be playing shortstop, some second base, and maybe even some time in the outfield while the bat’s red hot.

But on the flip side, Mauricio Dubón and Riley both went 0-5, while Dominic Smith had just one hit and the combination of Sandy Leon and Chadwick Tromp behind the plate went 0-3. None of those players even registered a hard-hit ball, combined for six strikeouts while walking just twice, and scored just twice when they were driven in on Ronald’s grand slam.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with I went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

In the words of Bill Belichick, “we’re on to Cincinnati.” The Braves start a three-game set against the Reds in Great American Ball Park tomorrow night, with some interesting ‘back-half-of-the-rotation’ matchups for both teams:

Fri: Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.78) vs Chris Paddack (0-6, 6.86)
Sat: Martín Pérez (2-3, 2.70) vs Brady Singer (2-4, 6.26)
Sun: Spencer Strider (3-0, 3.46) vs LHP Nick Lodolo (1-1, 5.57)

Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston MA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 66° with intermittent clouds, wind ENE at 17 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
SS Jorge Mateo
DH Dominic Smith
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Dominic Smith gets a start against a lefty, while Jorge Mateo (who had two hits last night) gets a start in place of Ha-Seong Kim for the finale.

Boston Red Sox Lineup

LF Jarren Duran
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
DH Andrew Monasterio
2B Nick Sogard
SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
C Omar Narváez
3B Caleb Durbin

Quick thoughts:

• Boston’s giving some regulars the day off, with Marcelo Mayer and Masataka Yoshida both on the bench to start this one against a lefty in Chris Sale.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (7-3, 1.89)

Quick snapshot:

• 1.89 ERA / 3.03 xERA / 2.92 FIP

• 29.9% K / 5.8% BB / 24.1% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 42% slider, 30% sinker, 26% four-seamer, 2% changeup

• vs RHH: 44% four-seamer, 40% slider, 15% changeup, <1% sinker

Who to watch:

• This is the third season since Sale was traded to Atlanta and no one on that roster has faced him in more than two games. There’s a grand total of seven hits off of Sale for Boston, with none of them being over the fence.

Opposing Starter: LHP Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.45 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.45 ERA / 2.18 xERA / 2.82 FIP

• 27.9 K% / 6.4 BB% / 21.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (45%, 96.2 mph)

• Sinker (24%, 95.0 mph)

• Cutter (16%, 89.0 mph)

• Curveball (11%, 82.3 mph)

• Changeup (4%, 88.4 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Simplified mix carried by early sinkers, increasing even more when he’s behind, but four-seam/curveball usage dominates when ahead and with two strikes.

vs RHH: More of a well-sequenced mix, but still with strong tendencies: Sinkers before getting to two strikes, increased cutter usage when behind, four-seamers and curveballs ramp up when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• The last time Tolle squared off against the Braves, the only extra base hits he gave up to Atlanta were by players not even on the roster: Drake Baldwin hit a solo homer to lead off the game (as part of a two-hit day) and José Azocar doubled twice. The entire rest of the roster was hitless in Tolle’s eight innings, striking out three times and walking once.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• It was mostly a night off for Atlanta’s pen, with Dylan Dodd finishing Elder’s final inning and Carlos Carrasco putting in yeoman’s work to complete the game.

Used recently:

• Dodd threw 21 pitches and could potentially come back today, if needed, but that’s not always a scenario that comes up in a Chris Sale start.

Potential limitations:

• Carrasco’s 46 pitches mean he is down for a few days, and I’m slightly surprised he wasn’t DFA’d this morning and a replacement brought in from Gwinnett.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have all the pieces they needed to secure a series win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Aroldis Chapman still hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday, while several of the leverage arms haven’t thrown since Sunday.

Used recently

• Tyron Guerrero might be able to return from Tuesday’s 36-pitch effort, although it’s possible he gets one more day.

Potential limitations

• Ryan Watson should be down after 34 pitches last night, while Garrett Whitlock is reportedly day-to-day with a mild hyperextension of his left knee. An MRI revealed no structural damage, but it’s unknown if he can pitch today.

Quick takeaway:

• Boston has the leverage pieces for tonight and might try and get Chapman an inning even if they don’t have the lead, just to get him some work.

What to Watch Today

• Can the Braves find some offense off of Tolle, who shut them down for eight innings two weeks go?

• How does Dom Smith handle a lefty starter, a scenario they’ve actively tried to avoid by platooning him in those situations.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a very low-scoring game (O/U 6.5 runs). This one is probably going to come down to whichever ace blinks first.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

The bottom of the fourth inning.

Boston entered the inning without having yet scored a run, but that would change in a hurry through a combination of quality at-bats and some BABIP luck.

Masataka Yoshida led off by taking advantage of a center-cut fastball and absolutely ripping a single to left at 104 off the bat. Mickey Gasper then drew a six-pitch walk, with Elder getting down 3-0 (and not challenging one of those pitches, which was most certainly touching the zone) before getting back into it but not being able to finish Gasper off.

Nick Sogard then bunted both guys over, with Austin Riley fielding the bunt, which gave the Braves their first out of the inning. And then came the fluky BABIP shehanigans.

Marcelo Mayer attempted to bail Bryce Elder out of the inning, sending a grounder to Matt Olson that was tailor-made for a 1st-and-home double play (or at worst the second out of the inning), but the Gold Glover saw it kick off the palm of his glove and into foul territory, allowing Yoshida to score from third.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was the primary nuisance in Tuesday’s opener, drove in Gasper with a line drive to left. Jarren Duran then broke his bat on an inside fastball, but had just enough on it to carry over the infield and drop it into shallow left field, loading the bases with only one out.

Ceddanne then shot an inside sinker to left, scoring two more (the second on a fielding error on the relay to Chadwick Tromp) and ending the night for Elder.

Dylan Dodd was called on to finish the inning, which he finally did…but only after a cutter well below the zone was shot to center by Wilyer Abreu to bring in two more runs, both charged to Elder.

Final tally: Five singles, one walk, two errors, a wild pitch, and a sacrifice bunt, resulting in six runs.

Bryce finished the game officially being tagged for all six of those runs (but only five earned) on nine hits in 3.1 innings. He once again failed to miss many bats, picking up only two whiffs, primarily because he did not trust his slider tonight and threw just eight of them.

Despite the rough outing, arguably his first blowup of the season, his ERA is still only 2.50.

It was abundantly clear that Boston adjusted from the last time they faced Bryce. In that outing, which lasted eight innings, Elder tied his career-high with fourteen groundouts. Today, just four groundouts, but the Red Sox had six batted balls between 2° and 9° that likely would have been grounders had Boston not made a deliberate adjustment.

Today’s Player of the Game

I’m giving it to Carlos Carrasco.

The veteran righty entered after that disastrous fourth inning was complete and covered the final four innings. The results were…fine? Carrasco allowed two runs on five hits, striking out two. He was tagged for a homer by Jarren Duran in the 8th, but the results aren’t the biggest reason he’s the Player of the Game.

Atlanta’s going to enter Thursday afternoon’s finale with virtually the entire bullpen available, although it’s unlikely that Carrasco will be part of that. The veteran threw 46 pitches to finish the game, so with him set to be unavailable for three days, there’s a real possibility that Atlanta designates him for assignment tomorrow morning and brings up a fresh arm from Gwinnett to finish out the road trip.

What You’ll Be Talking About

Another slow night for the offense.

The tone for this game was set in the first inning - neither team scored, but the way they got to that result was drastically different. Both teams got a runner on first that stole second, with Ronald Acuña Jr. walking and Ceddanne Rafaela hitting a single, but that’s where the similarities ended.

Boston got a Willson Contreras 103.7 mph single to left, but the run didn’t score thanks to a fantastic 93.2 mph throw from Mauricio Dubón to get the out at the plate.

Atlanta, by contrast, had a pop fly and a groundball double play in six total pitches.

Different vibes, and the game diverged from there.

For the contest, Atlanta finished with only five hits, with a Chadwick Tromp double in the top of the 7th being the only extra-base hit. Even the quality of the batted balls was atypical, with only two of the game’s ten hardest-hit balls (and six of the top 23) being from Atlanta. The Braves went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position, stranding nine on base.

Adding insult to injury, the Braves also committed three defensive errors.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are looking to win the series on Thursday afternoon and thankfully, can lean on their ace to do it. Chris Sale (7-3, 1.89 ERA) squares off with Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.45) at 4:10 PM ET.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston MA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 81° with intermittent clouds, wind WNW at 9 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
DH Jorge Mateo
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Chadwick Tromp

Quick thoughts:

• In a copied and pasted comment from Tuesday’s scouting report: I’m a bit surprised to see Jorge Mateo as the DH instead of an effort to give one of the lineup regulars a “half day” like Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley.

Boston Red Sox Lineup

LF Jarren Duran
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
DH Masataka Yoshida
C Mickey Gasper
2B Nick Sogard
SS Marcelo Mayer
3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Quick thoughts:

• Boston’s running out the exact same lineup for game two.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (4-2, 1.97)

Quick snapshot:

• 1.97 ERA / 2.98 xERA / 3.28 FIP

• 22.0% K / 7.7% BB / 14.3% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 32% four-seam fastball, 28% slider, 17% cutter, 13% changeup, 10% sinker

• vs RHH: 55% sinker, 31% slider, 8% four-seamer, 5% changeup, 1% cutter

Who to watch:

• It’s once again Willson Contreras. The first baseman is hitting .385 with a homer and three RBI off of Elder, including a very improbable home run the last time these two teams met.

Opposing Starter: LHP Connelly Early (4-2, 3.33 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.33 ERA / 4.67 xERA / 4.73 FIP

• 22.1 K% / 8.4 BB% / 13.7% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (33%, 93.8 mph)

• Changeup (21%, 83.5 mph)

• Sinker (20%, 92.2 mph)

• Curveball (12%, 79.8 mph)

• Slider (7%, 86.8 mph)

• Sweeper (6%, 82.2 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Early goes to his sinker early and both when behind in the count and before he gets to two strikes, ramping up his sweeper usage when ahead and as a putaway pitch.

vs RHH: More of a well-sequenced mix with less exploitable tendencies. Ramps up changeup usage when ahead (at the expense of sinkers), ramps up sinker usage when behind (at the expense of both the changeup and curveball), and maintains fairly consistent four-seam usage in any situation

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• The last time Early squared off against the Braves, he gave up homers to Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II, while both Austin Riley and Sandy León singled. Matt Olson had a rough day left-on-left, however, striking out twice off of Early.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Both of Atlanta’s long men, Carlos Carrasco and Reynaldo López, are fresh, as are medium-leverage relievers Dylan Dodd and Tyler Kinley.

Used recently:

• All four leverage arms (counting Didier Fuentes) pitched yesterday, but Fuentes (15 pitches) and Robert Suarez (nine) are almost certainly available to come back tonight.

Potential limitations:

• It’s more of a question about closer Raisel Iglesias (25) and lefty Dylan Lee (22), both of whom needed more than 20 pitches for their outings. I’d imagine the Braves are willing to use them, but they may not be the first guys out of the bullpen gate.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have the pieces they needed to secure a win.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Aroldis Chapman still hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday, while several of the leverage arms haven’t thrown since Sunday.

Used recently

• Danny Coulombe and Greg Wissert both threw Sun and last night, but based on their low pitch counts, can likely come back tonight.

Potential limitations

• Tyron Guerrero, though, is probably down after throwing 36 pitches last night and having a 50-spot on his right arm for the last three days.

Quick takeaway:

• Boston has the leverage pieces for tonight and might try and get Chapman an inning even if they don’t have the lead, just to get him some work.

What to Watch Today

• Can the Braves find more comfort against Early? They struck out six times off the lefty in his five innings earlier this month.

• Elder only had three strikeouts and a handful of whiffs the last time he started against Boston, although it’s possible he was going for early ground balls in an attempt to pitch deeper into the game. Can he miss more bats today?

Final Thought

The Braves are slightly favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U eight runs). This one probably comes down to whichever team has better results in their second look at the same starter.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Here is Today’s Three Things from the contest.

The Turning Point

With all due respect to the Houdini act by Didier Fuentes in the 6th inning to hold Boston to one run after Spencer Strider left the game, let’s talk about the bottom of the 9th inning.

Raisel Iglesias’s 28.2 inning scoreless streak died to bring us this win.

Atlanta was up 7-4 and had mostly navigated the high-leverage pitching plan to perfection - Fuentes was the first man out of the pen, followed by Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and now Iglesias for the 9th.

That plan promptly went up in flames, and it was mostly due to the combination of some bad locations and the whims of the baseball gods.

The inning started with a single by catcher Mickey Gasper, coming off of a changeup middle-up. Gasper then got to third on a check-swing double by Nick Sogard. It was the slowest swing of the night (57.9 mph) that produced a batted ball, which came off the bat at only 87.2 mph, but the ball shot down the left field line and rattled around the corner before Mauricio Dubón could get it in. Iglesias rebounded to get a big first out, a strikeout looking off of Andrew Monasterio, but then was got by more bad locations. A middle-middle slider west sent back up the middle by Isiah Kiner-Falefa (xBA of just .070), scoring both runners on base and narrowing Atlanta’s lead to one. Jarren Duran then got a middle-middle changeup and lined it to right field, but Ronald Acuña Jr’s strong throw in held Kiner-Falefa at second and added an extra 90 feet for Boston to tie the game. Iglesias finally got a ground ball by Wilyer Abreu to end it and clinch the save.

The two runs allowed pushed Iglesias’ ERA up to 1.08, but he still hasn’t blown a save this year.

Issues with locations were a persistent theme in this game for Atlanta. Dylan Lee gave up his first homer of the year in the 7th on a slider that hung to Kiner-Falefa, while the second of Spencer Strider’s first-inning solo homers allowed came on a slider in the upper third of the zone.

Today’s Player of the Game

By a near-unanimous vote of the postcast, it’s Michael Harris II.

“Money Mike” went 4-4 in this one, driving in three and scoring twice. And as good as the results were - a RBI double in the 6th, which knocked Ranger Suarez from the game, and a two-run homer in the 8th - the process bears mentioning.

The book on Harris has always been to take advantage of his egregious chase. Sliders down and away, right-on-left changeups, or other pitches that will run away from him and drop off the plate.

That strategy might be changing.

Harris will still expand the zone, but has gotten better about ignoring pitches that are egregiously far off the plate. Most of his chase is limited to the lower parts of the zone and the close sides of the plate, with the lefty picking up hits on a changeup just below the zone (2nd inning single), a slider just off the plate away (4th inning single), a slider just below the zone (6th inning RBI double), and a changeup down (8th inning home run).

Harris’ two-run shot in the 8th was his 12th of the season, putting him on pace for 36 longballs. That’s nearly double his career-high of 20 homers, and lines up to be accompanied by close to 100 RBI. While he’s only stolen three bases so far this season, far below a pace to meet the 20/20 expectation or even the stretch goal of 30/30, there’s reason to assume that he will pick up.

The first is that his lingering quad injury, one that kept him out of the outfield for nearly two weeks, also prevented him from being aggressive on the basepaths. Now that he’s fully healthy and his sprint speed is the same as before the injury, expect this to pick up. Additionally, adopting Antoan Richardson's stolen-base technique takes some time to be comfortable with implementing. While with the Mets last year, free agent addition Juan Soto stole only 11 bags prior to the All-Star Break (96 games) before picking up 27 steals in the final two months of the season. If that same progression happens with Harris, he might finish the first half with eight steals and add 20 more down the stretch, putting him one big weekend away from a 30/30 campaign.

What You’ll Be Talking About

As much as I want to discuss Spencer Strider, who was merely fine with three runs allowed over his five innings with three walks and five strikeouts, I imagine the conversation will likely drift to the offense, both good and bad.

Among the good, Matt Olson hit a two-run homer in the 5th inning. It was his first homer since May 10th, an unusual power drought for the slugger, and that plus his recent slump had some worried about a potential injury.

Olson was seen wincing and shaking out his arm on May 15th, and he was hitting just .128 with a .389 OPS since that game. But the slugger produced two 100+ mph exit velocities tonight, including 105.4 on his home run, and generally looked to be more comfortable at the plate than he has since cameras caught him appearing to be in pain after a swing.

More good came from the outfield duo of Mike Yastrzemski and Ronald Acuña Jr. Each picked up singles in this game, with Yaz coming in as a pinch-hitter and lacing a single to left in the eighth. Acuña’s single was a 100 mph line drive in the sixth, coming off a fastball up and away. Third baseman Austin Riley continued his recent resurgence with a leadoff triple in the sixth, a good piece of hitting on a changeup away that he got in front of and pulled to left-center. (A good bounce off the wall helped here, as leftfielder Jarren Duran ended up chasing this one down in centerfield).

But on the other side of the ledger, Ozzie Albies continued a slump that looked to be over on Sunday (when he had three hits) with a 0-5 night primarily off of Suarez, a pitcher he’s traditionally performed well against. In his defense, Ozzie did have two hard-hit balls that were both defended well, but also two lazy flyouts.

Ha-Seong Kim struck out twice and mustered only two groundouts for his batted balls, although he did have a good defensive game. The gem of the night may have been his aggressive decision to go to third for a force in the 9th inning, keeping Boston from getting the tying run to third base.

With the caveat that Kim’s still only at 38 at-bats on the year after missing all of spring training and getting only two weeks of rehab appearances, the team has a smaller margin of error for his ‘ramp up’ while dealing with multiple slumps in the lineup. I’d imagine that, while his starting job appears safe for now, it may not be that way in a few weeks if his performance doesn’t start matching his paycheck.

Looking for more discussion about this game?

Here’s tonight’s Postcast, with me and Locked On Braves host Jake Mastroianni, as we went live to break down the contest.

What’s Next for the Braves?

The Braves are back at it tomorrow at 6:45 PM, with Bryce Elder (4-2, 1.97) taking on Connelly Early (4-2, 3.33).

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston MA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 80° and mostly sunny, wind SW at 12 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
DH Eli White
CF Michael Harris II
SS Ha-Seong Kim
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

• Honestly, I’m a bit surprised to see Eli White as the DH instead of an effort to give one of the lineup regulars a “half day” like Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley.

Boston Red Sox Lineup

LF Jarren Duran
CF Ceddanne Rafaela
RF Wilyer Abreu
1B Willson Contreras
DH Masataka Yoshida
C Mickey Gasper
2B Nick Sogard
SS Marcelo Mayer
3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Quick thoughts:

• Some lineup changes for Boston. Mayer continues on as the shortstop for Boston, while Kiner-Falefa replaces the weak bat of Caleb Durbin at third base.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Spencer Strider (2-0, 3.00)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.00 ERA / 2.66 xERA / 4.69 FIP

• 32.9% K / 14.6% BB / 18.3% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 43% four-seam fastball, 22% each of slider and curveball, 13% changeup

• vs RHH: 57% four-seamer, 35% slider, 6% curveball, 1% changeup

Who to watch:

• Talk about turnover in Boston - there is not a single member of this roster with more than four at-bats against Strider and all of its players have combined for six hits in 26 at-bats with no homers and only two RBI (both from Willson Contreras).

Opposing Starter: LHP Ranger Suarez (2-2, 2.40 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.40 ERA / 3.20 xERA / 2.97 FIP

• 22.9 K% / 7.4 BB% / 15.4% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Sinker (30%, 90.6 mph)

• Cutter (19%, 88.2 mph)

• Four-seamer (18%, 91.9 mph)

• Changeup (18%, 81.4 mph)

• Curveball (15%, 75.5 mph)

• Slider (1%, 77.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Fastballs early, sinkers when behind, increased curveball/changeup/slider usage when ahead.

vs RHH: Well-sequenced mix that ramps up changeups when ahead, sinkers when behind, and both changeups and curveballs with two strikes (while cutting back on fastballs).

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley are the keys for Atlanta. Each guy has 26 or more ABs off of Suarez and is hitting .300 or better (.346 for Riley, .321 for Ozzie) with four combined homers and 12 RBI. Dom Smith hasn’t homered but is 3-10 with two RBI off of Suarez.

  • The flip side of this is Ronald Acuña Jr. is hitting just .227 with a .638 OPS off of Suarez in 22 ABS, while Matt Olson is hitting .250 (28 ABs) and Michael Harris II is hitting .150 in 20 ABs.

Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Virtually everyone. Sunday’s rain-delayed affair plus the off day provided virtually an entire reset of the bullpen.

Used recently:

• Carlos Carrasco threw five pitches on Sunday, while Didier Fuentes threw 12. Both should be able to come back today, if needed.

Potential limitations:

• Reynaldo López threw 35 pitches on Sunday and that’s the odd “is he or isn’t he” question on availability.

Quick takeaway:

• Leverage arms are all rested, so let’s get after it.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• Closer Aroldis Chapman hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday.

Used recently

• Six other relievers pitched on Sunday, with two of them being on the back end of a back-to-back. Most should be able to come back after Monday’s off day.

Potential limitations

• The two who are in question would be Ryan Watson and Jovani Moran, although Watson’s three-day pitch count (40) is much more concerning than Moran’s (29).

Quick takeaway:

• Boston has the pieces, including a well-rested closer, some setup men, and at least one additional lefty (outside of Chapman) for tonight’s opener.

What to Watch Today

• How do the Braves manage against Suarez, who was practically untouchable last year when he faced Atlanta (18IP, 2ER, 5BB/18Ks)?

• If this comes down to the Boston bullpen, how will Aroldis Chapman fare when he faces Atlanta’s hitters a third time? The Braves struck out twice against him in game one of the previous series, but drew two walks the next day off the flamethrower. Is there another natural jump in their comfort off of him that will result in runs on the board or a blown save?

Final Thought

The Braves are slightly favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). It feels like neither team’s been that great offensively, so it probably comes down to which group of bats breaks out of their run-scoring slump first.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.

Hank Aaron redefined offensive greatness. Greg Maddux changed how we think about pitching command and efficiency. Chipper Jones became one of the greatest switch-hitters the sport has ever seen.

And then there’s Tyler Flowers.

Which sounds ridiculous at first.

Flowers wasn’t a Hall of Famer. He wasn’t an MVP. He never made an All-Star team. Most fans probably remember him as a defense-first catcher who occasionally hit a baseball 440 feet for reasons science still can’t fully explain.

But there’s a legitimate argument that Flowers helped reshape how modern baseball thinks about catching.

Let’s talk about it.

Not the beginnings you’d expect

The Atlanta Braves were so enamored with Tyler Flowers as a prospect that they drafted him twice. They took him in 2004’s 27th round out of nearby Blessed Trinity Catholic HS in Roswell before re-drafting him in the 33rd round the next year out of Chipola College.

And then they…traded him away. Flowers was shipped out, along with Brent Lillibridge and two other prospects, in the 2008 offseason for Atlanta to acquire starter Javier Vázquez. The deal was worth it on the field, with Vázquez giving the Braves a 4th-place Cy Young finish after 219.1 innings of a 2.87 ERA in 2009.

Flowers would go on to debut that next season with the Chicago White Sox and spend seven seasons on the Southside before heading to free agency, where the Braves brought him in.

His statistical impact on the field was good - Flowers hit .251/.349/.391 with 17 homers across five seasons with the Braves before retiring after the 2020 season, but his impact off the field will linger.

The revolutionary art of Flowers

Flowers was an excellent defensive catcher, although one perpetually overshadowed by more traditionally celebrated peers like Yadier Molina (nine NL Golden Gloves), Joe Mauer (three GGs), and Salvador Perez (five GGs).

But for Tyler Flowers, it was the way that he caught.

The standard for catcher defense at the time was based on what you did to keep the ball in front of you, through blocking, and what you did to control the running game, through your pop time and your throwing velocity to 2nd base.

Flowers was…okay at preventing stolen bases, with a career 22.4% caught stealing rate. He was fine at blocking.

But Flowers helped turn pitch framing from a niche skill into a core part of modern catcher development.

Flowers was among the first MLB backstops to study the idea of pitch framing, the concept of adjusting how to change your glove movements when catching a pitch to make a borderline pitch appear to be a strike, even if it wasn’t when you caught it.

Pitchers who threw to Flowers consistently saw better results, most notably more strikeouts per walk, versus when they threw to his peers.

In 2016, Tyler Flowers’s games had 2.68 strikeouts per walk vs 2.07 SO/W when throwing to A.J. Pierzynski. In 2017, Flowers produced a 2.28 SO/W while Kurt Suzuki was at 2.01. With those same two in 2018, Flowers produced a 2.61 while Suzuki improved to just 2.10. Even Braves legend Brian McCann, who returned for the 2019 season, could put up ‘only’ a 2.39 to Flowers’ 2.58.

The thing to understand about framing in 2026 is that it’s no longer a specialty skill. It’s baseline competency.

The “bad” framers in baseball today would have graded out much closer to average a decade ago, because the position has evolved so dramatically. Organizations now teach framing techniques throughout the minors, while amateur catchers increasingly arrive already exposed to one-knee setups and modern receiving mechanics.

In other words, Tyler Flowers helped win an argument the rest of baseball eventually accepted.

And eventually, framing stopped being just a skill Tyler Flowers possessed. It became the blueprint for how organizations taught catching.

The core concepts he pioneered

But it wasn’t just the idea of framing that Tyler Flowers pushed on baseball. It was the methods with which he did it.

Flowers was the main advocate of the “one-knee down” catcher stance, previously seen as anathema but now the standard across MLB.

For those of you who don’t know the difference, besides the obvious descriptor in the name, this refers to the catcher’s setup as the pitch is delivered.

Here’s former MLB catcher Ryan Lavarnway, from early and later in his career, showing the two styles.

Coincidentally, Lavarnway learned the one-knee down stance from Tyler Flowers.

The two usual complaints/concerns about one knee down (“OKD”, as they now abbreviate it) were about the ability to block balls and the ability to throw out runners.

Recent research from Baseball America’s JJ Cooper shows that as OKD has become the standard across the majors - as of last summer, there were no traditional stance backstops remaining in MLB - passed balls and wild pitches have dropped to their lowest levels since the early 1980s. When you account for the difficulty of blocking in modern MLB, where velocity is at record highs (both peak and average) and more balls are thrown in the dirt than ever before, it can be argued that blocking’s never been better.

That was Tyler Flowers.

Similarly, caught stealing rates have shown not to be negatively impacted, although that’s harder to parse out due to MLB’s rule changes to encourage more stolen base attempts in recent seasons. As Flowers told Lavernway when he asked about the one-knee stance impacting his pop time, “If I steal an extra strike on a guy, he probably doesn’t reach first base…so then I never even have to throw him out. I helped get him out before he even got there.”

The other major adjustment Flowers popularized is flashing a target while the pitcher was coming set, but then dropping the glove as the pitcher began their throwing motion. It’s a technique that allows the glove to be moving up as it receives a low strike, meaning it’s a more natural motion to frame the low strike.

Here’s a slow-motion video of Astros prospect Walter Janek, showing how the two combined techniques make it easier to receive a low strike.

(Video credit of Baseball America)

The second clip in the video shows how you can still get out of the stance quickly for a throw to second. Pop times, on average, are roughly the same or better than when the traditional setup was prevalent. Is this partially a function of better athletes behind the plate? The time frame is short enough, 2018 to now, that I’m inclined to believe that can’t explain it, but rather catchers having enough experience with the technique and/or it not being a hindrance to pop times.

Teaching the next generation

Flowers retired early in 2021, telling MLB.com that a third degenerative disc in his back made it not “worthwhile” to go through all the rehab and training just to try and get back behind the plate.

But it wasn’t the end of Flowers' positive impact on catching in Atlanta. He’s worked in Atlanta’s front office since retiring, carrying the title of Special Assistant, Major League Operations and being involved in pitching plans and pregame preparation.

And when he retired, he was cognizant that his legacy would be related to fooling umpires. “If anybody knows my name, [pitch framing] is kind of what they associate it with,” Flowers told MLB.com. “Not that many people know my name across the country. If they do, they’re really into pitch framing and skilled strikes.”

Then-catching coach Sal Fasano was aware at the time that Flowers’ legacy would outlive his on-field career. “Imitation is the highest form of flattery. You look across the league now and see how many catchers are on one knee. That’s a tribute to Tyler and his ability to steal strikes. He was one of those transforming players.”

And because of Tyler Flowers and that transformation he pioneered, this game will never look the same.

UPDATE: Thanks to a reader who reached out with a reminder that Tyler Flowers also worked to improve player safety. The Force3 Defender Mask was created by the team at Force3 Pro Gear, with Flowers assisting on the design, and the primary difference from a traditional catcher’s mask is the addition of what they called a “Shock Suspension”.

The idea here is that the front cage is supported by springs, allowing it to flex and absorb some of the impact of a foul ball. Certification testing showed a 50% reduction in Severity Index testing, the standard for facemask safety, and may help reduce the risk of concussions.

Flowers was the first to wear the mask in an MLB game, back in 2016, and not only gave up his previous paid catching gear deal to make the switch, but invested in the company. The mask is currently the only authorized official catcher’s mask of MLB Players Inc, the business arm of the MLB Players Association.