The Scouting Report: Braves @ Padres, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 9:40 PM ET

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: 68° and mostly sunny. Wind NW at 7 mph.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
LF Dominic Smith
SS Mauricio Dubón
C Drake Baldwin
3B Austin Riley
DH Rowdy Tellez
RF Mike Yastrzemski

Quick thoughts:

• That’s certainly A lineup - let’s see how long the “outfielder Dom Smith” experiment lasts before Atlanta pulls the plug and goes with a defensive replacement.

San Diego Padres Lineup

RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
LF Samad Taylor
CF Jackson Merrill
3B Manny Machado
1B Gavin Sheets
SS Xander Bogaerts
DH Will Wagner
C Rodolfo Durán
2B Sung-Mun Song

Quick thoughts:

• Samad Taylor hit in the #9 hole last night against a righty and the #2 hole tonight against a…righty. Really curious to learn the thought process here. Sung-Min Song, who briefly got in last night’s game, gets into the lineup at second base and bats 9th.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP JR Ritchie (1-2, 4.54)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.54 ERA / 4.87 xERA / 5.99 FIP

• 19.5% K / 13.6% BB / 5.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 28% curveball, 24% four-seamer, 22% changeup, 14% cutter, 6% each sinker and slider

• vs RHH: 36% sinker, 21% curveball, 18% slider, 12% changeup, 10% four-seamer, 3% cutter

Who to watch:

• No one in San Diego’s lineup has ever faced Ritchie.

Opposing Bulk Pitcher: RHP Griffin Canning (1-5, 6.64 ERA)

(Lefty Wandy Peralta will start the game, with Canning to follow)

Quick snapshot:

• 6.64 ERA / 4.89 xERA / 5.41 FIP

• 22.4 K% / 13.7 BB% / 8.7% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Slider (26%, 87.2 mph)

• Four-seamer (26%, 94.3 mph)

• Changeup (24%, 89.9 mph)

• Sinker (12%, 93.7 mph)

• Cutter (5%, 89.5 mph)

• Sweeper (5%, 86.2 mph)

• Curveball (4%, 80.7 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A relatively static three-pitch mix that cuts ramps up changeup use when ahead in the count and swaps four-seamers for sliders with two strikes.

vs RHH: A more-variable sinker/slider oriented mix, ramps up curveball usage when ahead (at the expense of the sinker and cutter), cuts back on sliders to throw more sinkers and cutters when behind, and cuts the other fastball variants for a four-seamer and slider with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• The only two hitters with significant experience versus Canning are Matt Olson (.211 avg/.829 OPS in 20 PAs, but also two homers) and Mauricio Dubón (.286 avg/.661 OPS in 8 PAs). In “small sample size fiun”, Michael Harris II is 3-4 with a double.

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Braves Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The entire high-leverage cadre has gotten some time off, except Didier Fuentes, who threw only four pitches last night.

Used recently:

• James Karinchak threw 22 pitches last night, but it’s still possible he could come back tonight if needed.

Potential limitations

• Reynaldo López pitched the final three innings on Sunday in relief of Bryce Elder so he’s likely still down, while Dylan Dodd’s 39 pitches last night likely put him down for at least a day, maybe two.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have everything they need, including a long man in Carlos Carrasco, to get through this one.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• David Morgan’s had three days off and several of the leverage arms - Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, Jason Adam - are all recovered from the last series’ usage.

Used recently

• Both Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller threw last night, pushing them into high three-day pitch counts, but they’re likely still on the board for tonight if the Padres have a chance to win the series.

Potential limitations

• If doesn’t appear that there’s anyone off the table for San Diego.

Quick takeaway:

• The seven (scoreless) innings they got from Michael King last night made it rather easy to ‘reset’ most of the bullpen for tonight’s game two.

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What to Watch Today

• Ritchie’s strikeout rate has fallen under 20%, putting him in the danger zone of keeping runs off the board. What changes does he make tonight to try to either find more whiffs or ensure he gets more groundballs than the last start?

• How long does the lefty Peralta go for San Diego before turning things over to the righty Canning?

Final Thought

The Braves are a pick’em (FanDuel) in a moderate-scoring (O/U 8.5 runs) game. This one is all about Atlanta’s offense - can they build Ritchie a cushion?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.