The Scouting Report: Braves vs Padres, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
C Joey Bart
SS Jim Jarvis
RF Eli White
Quick thoughts:
Austin Riley’s hot weekend bumps him all the way to the cleanup spot for the opener against the Padres, who have a lefty on the mound.
San Diego Padres Lineup
RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
CF Jackson Merrill
3B Manny Machado
1B Ty France
LF Gavin Sheets
DH Xander Bogaerts
2B Jake Cronenworth
C Freddy Fermin
SS Sung-Mun Song
Quick thoughts:
Text
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Bryce Elder (5-6, 4.12 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.12 ERA / 3.81 xERA / 4.32 FIP
19.8% K / 7.4% BB / 12.4% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 30% four-seamer, 26% slider, 20% cutter, 12% sinker, 11% changeup
vs RHH: 53% sinker, 30% slider, 9% four-seamer, 4% changeup, 3% cutter
What to watch:
For Elder, it’s all down to his locations. His mistakes usually come when he lets a slider catch too much of the zone, elevates a sinker, or misses towards the heart of the plate with a cutter.
Being able to cut short an inning that’s spiraling out of control would be nice, too - it was one of the primary keys to his early season dominance.
Who to watch:
Limited track record for San Diego - only eight of their hitters have ever faced him and the most prolific guys all have five ABs or less. Jake Cronenworth’s 1-3 with a homer and three RBI, by far the most successful so far off of Elder.
Opposing Starter: LHP JP Sears (2-2, 5.03 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
5.03 ERA / 5.39 xERA / 5.24 FIP
19.8 K% / 9.3 BB% / 10.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (36%, 93.0 mph)
Changeup (23%, 84.9 mph)
Sweeper (16%, 79.3 mph)
Slider (11%, 81.0 mph)
Sinker (10%, 92.2 mph)
Cutter (3%, 88.1 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A relatively simple four-seam/sweeper mix that prioritizes sweepers when ahead and with two strikes, but four-seamers and sliders when behind.
vs RHH: A more variable mix - less four-seamers early, in favor of sweepers (what an odd adjustment to make), increased four-seam and slider usage with two strikes, increased changeup usage when behind (at the expense of almost all sliders), and more changeups and sweepers before getting to two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Mauricio Dubón should get a Father’s Day card from JP Sears, given his career .300 avg/.900 OPS off his in 20 ABs. Matt Olson’s 3-10 with an RBI, while Joey Bart’s 2-3 with a homer.
In a weird stat line, Jorge Mateo’s 1-14 off Sears in his career, but that one hit is a home run.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Um, both Victor Mederos and Elieser Hernández haven’t thrown in a few days, which is nice.
Used recently:
Everyone else has, although JR Ritchie, Tyler Kinley, and lefty Danny Young all have one day of rest and are likely up today.
Potential limitations:
Four Braves relievers are coming off back-to-backs and are likely down today in Dylan Lee, Dylan Dodd, Didier Fuentes, and Raisel Iglesias, although as Iglesias is the closer, he may get called on to work the 9th if it’s a save situation.
Quick takeaway:
Boy, some length out of Elder sure would be nice today.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
None of the leverage arms have thrown since Friday, so there’s plenty of late-inning availability if San Diego has a lead in this one.
Used recently:
Lefties Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta both pitched on Sunday, but not with pitch counts that would preclude them from coming back today if needed.
Potential Limitations
Open question as to the availability of long men Matt Waldron (27 pitches on Saturday) and Randy Vásquez (32 on Sunday, his first day off the IL).
Quick takeaway:
San Diego’s certainly the more rested pen in this series.
What to Watch Today
Sears faced Atlanta back in mid-June, getting the win with two earned runs over 5.2, striking out five and walking two. Joey Bart took him deep, but he otherwise contained Atlanta’s lineup to mostly singles. That was the first of four MLB starts he’s made this season while replacing the injured Lucas Giolito in the rotation.
Between the minors and majors this year, Sears has allowed righties to hit over 90 points better with a massive difference in OPS, .941 to .679. Let’s see if Atlanta’s righties in Riley, Dubón, Bart, and White (as well as the switch-hitter Albies) can get to Sears today.
Final Thought
Braves are a favorite in the opener at -134 on the moneyline and with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of 9.0 runs. Can the Braves rebound from their June struggles against Sears, and can Elder keep this Padres offense at bay?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.