It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: courtesy of @BravesWX on X.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
C Sean Murphy
3B Austin Riley
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta rotates Murphy and Kim back into the lineup, batting 7th and 9th, respectively.
Colorado Rockies Lineup
CF Jake McCarthy
2B Connor Norby
C Hunter Goodman
1B TJ Rumfield
3B Willi Castro
LF Mickey Moniak
RF Troy Johnston
C Brent Sullivan
SS Ryan Ritter
Quick thoughts:
Colorado’s giving rookie Cole Carrig and struggling shortstop Ezequiel Tovar the day off, but that outfield defense has the potential to be bad today.
Jake McCarthy has a success rate of only 89% in his limited centerfield reps, while Troy Johnston has 20th percentile speed, poor arm strength, and -2 OAA in right field in just 343 innings. Mickey Moniak’s -12 OAA last year in his 887 outfield innings prompted them to more than double his DH starts this year.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.41, but 2-1, 1.52 with ATL)
Quick snapshot:
4.41 ERA / 4.30 xERA / 4.09 FIP
22.5% K / 8.5% BB / 14.1% K-BB%
Pitch mix (since trade to Atlanta):
vs LHH: 48% four-seamer, 38% splitter, 14% cutter, no sliders thrown
vs RHH: 48% four-seamer, 40% splitter, 11% cutter, 1% slider
What to watch:
With a simplified pitch mix, the results since the trade remain excellent. Mahle has a 1.52 ERA with 23 strikeouts and five walks over 23⅔ innings for Atlanta. He has completed at least five innings in all four starts while allowing two earned runs or fewer each time.
Mahle’s simplified approach barely changes with the hitter’s handedness. Since joining Atlanta, he has thrown four-seamers or splitters on 86.2% of his pitches to lefties and 87.7% to righties. Four-seam usage is essentially identical, while righties receive slightly more splitters and lefties slightly more cutters. His reverse platoon split therefore isn’t the product of an obvious repertoire imbalance; the greater concern is how effectively right-handed hitters have handled the same basic plan.
Colorado’s right-handed hitters represent the real threat. Righties have hit .294/.370/.448 with an .818 OPS against Mahle, compared with a .666 OPS by lefties. Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Ezequiel Tovar and Connor Norby are the portion of the lineup most capable of disrupting his recent run.
Watch the splitter’s swing-and-miss rather than its raw usage. Mahle threw it 36 times against Milwaukee but produced only two whiffs. He still limited the Brewers to one run, but that continued a modest decline from the bat-missing splitter he showed in his first two Braves appearances. Colorado could put considerably more pressure on him if they can recognize the pitch beneath the zone.
The first inning remains the season-long warning sign. Mahle has a 5.73 first-inning ERA, four homers allowed and a 1.68 WHIP. That vulnerability hasn’t clearly followed him to Atlanta, but it still makes his initial fastball command worth watching, especially against Colorado’s right-handed power.
There isn’t a major times-through-the-order cliff. Opponents have a .748 OPS on their first look, .706 on the second and .766 on the third. The Braves shouldn’t need to manufacture an unusually early hook if his command and splitter remain intact.
Who to watch:
Most of Colorado’s roster, all but youngsters Cole Carrigg, Ryan Ritter and Zac Veen, have faced Mahle in the past - he threw seven innings of one-run ball against this roster back in July, striking out four in a 4-2 Giants win.
Mahle won: Ezequiel Tovar (0-4), Jordan Beck (0-2), Troy Johnston (1-5, RBI), Mickey Moniak (2-9)
Mahle has gotten got: Hunter Goodman (5-9, 2 doubles), TJ Rumfeld (2-4, walk), Brett Sullivan (2-5, 2 doubles), Willi Castro (2-5), Connor Norby (2-2)
Opposing Starter: RHP Mason Adams (0-0, 2.25 ERA)
Quick snapshot (minors):
3.48 ERA / 4.78 xERA / 4.01 FIP
24.3 K% / 8.8 BB% / 15.5% K-BB%
The arsenal (AAA):
Four-seamer (29%, 93.5 mph)
Sweeper (23%, 85.8 mph)
Sinker (22%, 92.3 mph)
Curveball (13%, 82.7 mph)
Changeup (8%, 88.6 mph)
Cutter (6%, 89.8 mph)
Atlanta’s path against Adams:
Expect two fastballs and two distinct breaking-ball shapes. In his MLB debut, Adams threw four-seamers and sinkers on 53.3% of his pitches, then sweepers and curveballs on another 38.7%. He used only four changeups and two cutters. The four-seamer averaged 93 mph, the sinker 91.7, the sweeper approximately 85 and the curveball 82.
Atlanta shouldn’t give him automatic first-pitch strikes. Adams began 77.8% of the plate appearances in his debut with a strike. That is an enormous rate, even in an 18-batter sample, and reflects the command-oriented scouting profile he carried through the minors. Braves hitters should be prepared to attack a low-90s fastball in the zone before he begins working backward with the breaking balls.
His breaking balls are more interesting than their debut whiff totals. The curveball has generally been identified as Adams’s best pitch, with downer action and an ability to land it for strikes. Nevertheless, his 29 sweepers and curves produced only one whiff against Washington. That doesn’t invalidate the scouting report, but Atlanta shouldn’t treat either pitch as an established major-league out pitch yet.
Load up on left-handed hitters and make him demonstrate a third answer. All three walks and the only homer Adams allowed in his debut came against lefties, while four of his five strikeouts came against righties. That is nowhere near enough to establish a platoon split, but the underlying question is legitimate: Does Adams trust a changeup he threw only four times enough to handle Olson, Baldwin, Harris and Atlanta’s other left-handed bats?
Five debut strikeouts slightly overstate how overpowering he was. Adams generated a 21.2% whiff rate, below the MLB average, and Washington made contact on 95% of its swings at pitches in the zone. His skill is changing shapes and speeds while throwing strikes, not simply overwhelming hitters.
The workload may be Atlanta’s greatest advantage. Adams missed 2025 following Tommy John surgery and hasn’t exceeded 80 pitches in a start this season. He needed 75 pitches to complete four innings in his debut. Colorado then used six pitchers Saturday, making another short start particularly inconvenient. Deep plate appearances can matter even if Atlanta doesn’t score immediately.
The broader resume is “command over stuff”. Before surgery, Adams posted a 2.70 ERA with 101 strikeouts against only 19 walks in Double-A. His ceiling is generally viewed as that of a back-end starter, but the six-pitch foundation and ability to work backward give him more ways to survive than the ordinary emergency call-up.
The Braves against Adams: As this is his second career start, no Braves have faced him in the majors. I can’t find any overlap with the current roster from his time in the minor league system for the White Sox, either.
The good: N/A
The bad: N/A
Haven’t seen him: N/A
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
Important to acknowledge that this will be for one start of 75 total pitches, so he could look radically different today if Colorado implements a different gameplan)
vs LHH: Curveball functioned more as an early strike-stealer than a whiff pitch, while an opposite-handed sweeper (!) was the primary swing-and-miss weapon. Changeup was underused, but primarily showed up when ahead in the count.
vs RHH: Sinker/sweeper dominated these at-bats early, with Adams pivoting to the four-seamer when ahead and pairing it with both breaking balls and the changeup with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Dylan Lee’s had three days off, while most of the leverage contingent had yesterday off.
Potential limitations:
Given the kid gloves they’ve treated Didier Fuentes with, 21 pitches is likely enough for him to be down today, unless all hell breaks loose. Does Victor Mederos maybe get one more day, given his higher usage earlier in the week?
Quick takeaway:
Ray Kerr’s available for length, while the leverage arms are there if this one ends up being another close contest. (Let’s hope not.)
Opponent Bullpen Status
Yikes.
Likely Available:
Uh, closer Jordan Romano only threw three pitches yesterday and can likely come back, as can Juan Mejia (back-to-back on Thursday and Friday) and Mark Manfredi (24 on Friday)
Potential Limitations:
Zack Agnos (42 pitches yesterday) and Jaden Hill (37) are almost certainly down, while Jimmy Herget (26) and Nick Frasso (27) might be good for an inning today, but they do both have three-day pitch counts of 45.
Quick takeaway:
This is Atlanta’s biggest opportunity here, and the sooner they can get into Colorado’s pen today, the more this will resemble an SEC non-conference Sunday blowout in college baseball.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored on the moneyline at -225 to Colorado’s +205 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs, an even bigger moneyline margin than the first two games of the series. The likely hinge point is: Can Atlanta turn Adams’s limited workload into a bullpen game? Mahle has completed at least five innings in every Braves start, while Adams has never surpassed 80 pitches this year and Colorado used six pitchers Saturday. If Atlanta prevents the rookie from stealing early-count strikes, four competent innings may still leave the Rockies badly exposed. If Adams cruises through those innings and Colorado’s right-handed hitters exploit Mahle’s reverse platoon split, the presumed pitching advantage becomes considerably smaller.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
I feel like I would have preferred this lineup:
C Baldwin
RF Acuna
1B Olson
CF Harris
SS Dubon
2B Albies
LF Yas
3B Riley
DH Smith