It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
CF Michael Harris II
DH Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta’s going with a new leadoff hitter today in Harris, while Acuña gets a load-management half-day at DH.
Philadelphia Phillies Lineup
DH Kyle Schwarber
SS Trea Turner
RF Bryce Harper
2B Luis Arraez
1B Alec Bohm
3B Bryson Stott
LF Brandon Marsh
C J.T. Realmuto
CF Justin Crawford
Quick thoughts:
No major lineup challenges for Philly in the finale.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.46 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.46 ERA / 4.74 xERA / 4.61 FIP
18.9% K / 9.8% BB / 9.1% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 34% slider, 28% four-seamer, 12% cutter, 11% curveball, 9% changeup, 6% sinker
vs RHH: 41% slider, 31% four-seamer. 20% sinker, 3% each of cutter, curveball, and changeup
(hopefully the right-on-right change is used more than 3%)
What to watch:
Holmes is producing results without overwhelming hitters. Since August 4, he has a 2.27 ERA with only one homer allowed across 35⅔ innings—but just 23 strikeouts against 12 walks. His last two starts comprise nine scoreless innings, although three came before rain ended his Washington outing. He followed that with six scoreless innings against Philadelphia last Sunday.
His previous Phillies plan was unusually balanced. Holmes used all six pitches and threw nothing more than 33.7%:
| Pitch | Usage | | ----------- | ----: | | Four-seamer | 33.7% | | Slider | 24.7% | | Curveball | 13.5% | | Changeup | 12.4% | | Sinker | 7.9% | | Cutter | 7.9% |His six strikeouts came on four different pitches: three sliders and one apiece on the curveball, changeup and four-seamer. Ten of his 11 changeups went to lefties, so the right-on-right changeup remains more theoretical than implemented.
The breaking balls and changeup are still his best options. The slider owns a 39.3% whiff rate and .274 wOBA, while the curveball has a 37.2% whiff rate and .249 wOBA. The changeup has allowed a .100 average and .100 slugging percentage. Conversely, his cutter has been hit for a .357 average and .619 slugging percentage, while the sinker carries a .407 xwOBA and 61.2% hard-hit rate.
Holmes against Philadelphia: He has a 2.70 ERA over 16⅔ innings in three meetings, allowing 14 hits and six walks with 14 strikeouts. The Phillies have hit three homers against him.
The good: Bryce Harper (2-for-6, HR, 2 BB), Trea Turner (3-for-9, 2B, HR, BB), Kyle Schwarber (2-for-8, HR, BB)
The bad: Alec Bohm (0-for-5, 2 BB), Bryson Stott (1-for-7), Justin Crawford (1-for-7), J.T. Realmuto (0-for-2)
Opposing Starter: RHP Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.71 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
5.71 ERA / 4.56 xERA / 4.78 FIP
20.1 K% / 8.1 BB% / 12.0% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer: 32%, 96.5 mph
Slider: 18%, 88.0 mph
Sweeper: 16%, 82.7 mph
Sinker: 9%, 95.1 mph
Splitter: 9%, 87.4 mph
Changeup: 9%, 90.5 mph
Curveball: 6%, 81.2 mph
Atlanta’s path against Painter:
Painter’s 5.71 ERA describes his season, not his current identity. Philadelphia demoted him in June after a 1-8 start and 7.06 ERA. Since returning July 31, he has a 3.77 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 44 strikeouts against 15 walks over 45⅓ innings. He has completed at least five innings in six consecutive starts, important after Philadelphia’s 11-inning Friday game and Saturday bullpen game.
The demotion produced an actual repertoire overhaul. Painter abandoned his unreliable splitter for a new changeup and more than doubled his sweeper usage:
| Pitch | Before demotion | Since recall | | ----------- | --------------: | -----------: | | Four-seamer | 33.1% | 30.3% | | Sweeper | 11.4% | 24.6% | | Changeup | 0.0% | 22.2% | | Slider | 21.4% | 13.6% | | Sinker | 10.8% | 7.1% | | Splitter | 14.4% | 0.0% | | Curveball | 8.9% | 2.2% |The 90.5-mph changeup has been excellent: .118 average, .137 slugging percentage, .148 wOBA and a 34.6% whiff rate.
Painter now presents two different assignments by handedness. Since his recall, he has thrown lefties 36.3% four-seamers and 31.0% changeups. Against righties, the sweeper leads at 32.0%, followed by the four-seamer at 24.2% and slider at 17.8%. Atlanta’s lefties must distinguish the fastball from the changeup; its righties must avoid expanding against the sweeper.
Atlanta’s path remains attacking the four-seamer—and doing it immediately. Painter’s fastball has allowed a .355 average, .582 slugging percentage and .435 wOBA with only a 14.8% whiff rate. His sinker has also allowed a .532 slugging percentage. Even since returning, Painter has surrendered eight first-inning runs in eight starts; for the full season, his opening-inning ERA is 9.00 with a .934 opponent OPS.
Painter against Atlanta: He allowed 14 hits and eight earned runs across 9⅔ innings in the two April meetings—a 7.45 ERA—with only five strikeouts. The caveat is significant: both starts preceded the new changeup and delivery work.
The good: Michael Harris II (3-for-3, 2B, HR), Ronald Acuña Jr. (2-for-6, HR, BB), Ozzie Albies (2-for-4, BB), Matt Olson (2-for-5)
The bad: Drake Baldwin (0-for-5, 2 K), Austin Riley (0-for-4, HBP), Mike Yastrzemski (1-for-5, 2B)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A four-seam-based mix that goes to splitters and curveballs to end the at-bat, using sliders and off-handed sweepers more as strike stealers than putaway pitches,
vs RHH: A more concentrated four-pitch mix that ramps up sliders and changeups with two strikes, emphasizes the sweeper when behind, and has a strong willingness to intermix four-seamers and sweepers early.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available/potential limitations:
Atlanta shouldn’t have anyone explicitly down today, although I imagine they’ll be hesitant to go to Brent Suter after last night’s 24-pitch outing.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves are in a great place for the finale, which is a sharp contrast to Philly’s armbarn.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Yikes.
Likely Available:
Uh, some of the leverage arms got a day off, with closer Jhoan Duran not having thrown in this series and none of Jonathan Bowlan, Jose Alvarado, or Alex McFarlane being needed on Saturday in the blowout.
Potential Limitations:
Four different Philly relievers had extended outings in Saturday’s bullpen game, with the shortest of those being 27 pitches from Brooks Raley. It’s hard to see a world where Orion Kerkering (39 pitches), Grant Holman (34), Tim Mayza (31), or Raley are asked to pitch today. Additionally, Chase Shugart only threw 16 pitches, but it was his second consecutive day of work.
Quick takeaway:
Philly likely needs to build the entire plane out of leverage arms.
Final Thought
The Braves are -126 on the moneyline to Philly’s +108 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 9.5 runs. Can Atlanta damage Painter before his new secondaries take control? His changeup-heavy plan has made him substantially better, but the fastball remains vulnerable and his first-inning trouble survived the demotion. Philadelphia badly needs length from him. If Atlanta attacks the correct early-count fastballs and forces another short outing, it exposes a bullpen that has already absorbed two demanding games.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
While I would love a sweep...if we do lose today, two out of three is a great result for this weekend series!