2026 MLB Draft Primer: Decoding Atlanta's Draft Blueprint
Three draft classes reveal a remarkably consistent strategy. The question is whether Atlanta sticks with it in 2026.
The 2026 MLB Draft is rapidly approaching, with the first round set to begin this Saturday, July 11.
If you missed my previous article, we broke down how the MLB Draft works, why it is so different from the NFL and NBA drafts, and what fans should actually pay attention to when evaluating a draft class from the outside looking in.
Today, let’s bring the conversation back to Atlanta.
Since Dana Brown departed for Houston, Ronit Shah has been leading the Braves scouting department. Now entering his seventh draft with the organization, the last three being in charge, Shah has quietly built a reputation as one of the better evaluators of amateur talent in baseball.
With Shah and Alex Anthopoulos once again leading the charge this weekend, I wanted to look back at Atlanta's last three draft classes to see if any noticeable trends have developed.
Three drafts isn't enough to establish hard-and-fast organizational rules, but it is enough to identify some consistent tendencies.
2026 Braves Today Draft Guide
Part 4 (Friday): Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 26
Part 5 (Friday): Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 48
Part 6 (Saturday): Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 84
Part 7 (Saturday): Four Players the Braves Could Target at No. 112
Premium Rounds (1 through 3)
Let’s start with the picks everyone pays attention to. These are the selections organizations expect to become legitimate Major League contributors, and for the Braves there has been one trend that stood out for years: pitching.
From 2020 through 2024, every first-round pick was a pitcher. The same was true from 2015 through 2018. That means 12 of Atlanta's last 15 first-round selections before last year were arms.
Then came Tate Southisene.
Instead of another pitcher, the Braves selected the Nevada prep shortstop, marking the organization's first first-round bat since 2019. Was that the beginning of a philosophical shift, or simply the result of how last year's board unfolded? We obviously do not know yet, but it is something worth watching this weekend.
The bigger pattern actually comes after the first round.
Rounds two and three have consistently been where Atlanta saves money. Every one of those selections over the past three drafts has come from the college ranks, with three position players and four pitchers making up the group.
Nine of those ten premium selections signed for less than slot value. Only five were true money-saving deals that came in well below slot, but the overall trend is still obvious. Shah and Anthopoulos have consistently preferred creating financial flexibility early in the draft instead of spending aggressively right away.
The lone exception was Drue Hackenberg in 2023, who signed for about $627,000 over slot. Even then, compared to some of the massive over-slot bonuses we have seen around baseball, that deal felt much closer to slot than a true swing for the fences.
Zoom out, and the strategy becomes clear: Atlanta has consistently chosen to save money early because they know exactly where they want to spend it later.
Mid Rounds (4 through 6)
This is where Atlanta’s draft strategy really reveals itself. If there is one pattern that has become impossible to ignore, it is what Atlanta does in these middle rounds.
Each of the last three drafts has featured two overslot prep players, typically one pitcher and one position player, while the remaining pick has been a college player who signs below slot to help balance the bonus pool.
Last year provided a perfect example.
Atlanta selected left-handed pitcher Briggs McKenzie in the fourth round and signed him for just under $3 million despite being the 127th overall pick. They followed that by signing Conor Essenburg in the fifth round for nearly $759,000 over slot.
That same blueprint showed up the previous two years as well.
In 2024, catcher Nick Montgomery and pitcher Ethan Bagwell both received over-slot bonuses. In 2023, it was pitcher Garrett Baumann and outfielder Isaiah Drake.
Of course, someone has to help pay for those bonuses. That is where the college selections come into play, and these have quietly turned into some really nice picks themselves.
Last year it was infielder Dixon Williams, who is currently posting a .760 OPS with High-A Rome. In 2024, it was Herick Hernandez, who owns a 2.59 ERA with a 32.5 percent strikeout rate in Double-A Columbus. In 2023, it was Lucas Braun, who has continued climbing the system while producing solid numbers in both Double-A and Triple-A.
That is what makes this strategy so effective.
Atlanta is not simply saving money and spending it elsewhere. They are finding legitimate baseball players on both sides of the equation. When your over-slot bets develop, and your money-saving picks outperform expectations, your farm system starts climbing rankings in a hurry. We are beginning to see exactly that happen this season.
Most clubs can identify talented prep players. The challenge is creating enough bonus pool flexibility to actually sign them. The Braves have consistently found the money.
In total, seven of the ten selections in this range have signed for over slot bonuses, ranging anywhere from roughly $226,000 to more than $2.4 million over slot value. If recent history repeats itself, I would not be surprised at all if we see Atlanta target two highly regarded prep players somewhere in this range again on Saturday.
Late Rounds (7 through 10)
This is where Atlanta replenishes organizational depth.
Over the last three drafts, Atlanta has made 12 selections between rounds seven and ten. Every single one has come from the college ranks. Ten have been pitchers, and every player signed below slot value.
This is where the Braves replenish organizational depth. By this point, much of the bonus pool has already been allocated, so the focus shifts toward adding experienced college arms who can provide pitching depth throughout the system.
Some recent names include Zach Royse, Carter Lovasz, Brett Sears, Owen Hackman, and Logan Samuels.
The only two position players selected during this stretch have also been college players, with Logan Braunschweig standing out as the most notable last season after already reaching Double-A Columbus.
Overview
If the previous three drafts revealed Atlanta’s blueprint, this year’s bonus pool gives the organization its best opportunity yet to deviate from it.
The Braves enter this draft with a bonus pool of nearly $15.9 million, a massive jump from the $9.1 million they had in 2025, $7.8 million in 2024, and $8.3 million in 2023. That changes the equation immensely.
I still expect Atlanta to follow some of the same principles they have used in recent years because they have worked remarkably well. But with an extra first round selection and significantly more money available, this feels like the perfect opportunity to get more aggressive and swing for the fences.
Whether that means floating a talented college player down to pick 26 or 48 with a strong bonus offer, or convincing a prep prospect with first-round talent to pass on college, the Braves have more flexibility than they have had in years.
That is what makes this draft so fascinating. Could we finally see Atlanta hand out a significant over-slot bonus with one of its premium selections under Shah and Anthopoulos? Was Tate Southisene the beginning of a shift toward targeting more impact bats early?
With almost twice as much bonus pool space as they’ve had in recent years, we’ll soon find out whether the Braves are sticking to the blueprint—or rewriting it.