3 Questions, 3 Prospects: Caminiti, McCabe, and Lara

Is Caminiti too advanced? Does McCabe’s bat translate? And is there any path forward for Lara?

Prospects aren’t just about tools and rankings.

Is the player at the right level?
Will the offensive profile actually work?
Is there still a path if something fundamental isn’t clicking?

Today’s edition is built around three of those questions:

• Is Cam Caminiti too advanced for High-A?

• Does David McCabe’s profile translate to the majors?

• Is there any real path forward for Jhancarlos Lara with his control?

Let’s talk about it.

The Question: Is Caminiti too advanced for High-A?

After 13 starts for Single-A Augusta last year, Cam Caminiti, Atlanta’s first-round pick in 2024, went straight to High-A Rome to ply his trade for the Emperors this year. But was this somehow still a conservative assignment, as some have suggested?

The Case For

Any move to a new minor league level has the capacity to be a shock to a pitcher, representing a jump in both the skill of opposing hitters and their approach.

Caminiti wasn’t immune to this, not able to make it through five innings of his first start, allowing three runs. But even then, he struck out six and issued exactly zero walks.

And since then, it’s been dominance from Caminiti: two earned runs in ten innings across his two starts, striking out thirteen with only eight hits and no walks. He picked up 18 swinging strikes and 26 called strikes, getting fifteen ground ball outs and allowing only one extra base hit.

The Case Against

It’s folly to make sweeping generalizations on a two-start sample, and Caminiti proved that on Wednesday morning. In a start against Greensboro (Pirates affiliate), Caminiti was tagged for four runs on six hits and three walks while only striking out two in 4.1 innings.

The batted ball profile was similar - six groundball outs to only two flyball outs, but Greensboro got three runs on the board in the 4th inning after a few singles and multiple uncompetitive walks from Caminiti.

The Answer

The youngster is incredibly talented, with a new cutter complementing his fastball/slider/changeup mix and Chris Sale-esque profile. But as talented as he is, Wednesday’s outing shows that there’s still more consistent strike-throwing needed before the youngster is ready to make a jump into the upper minors. Right now, the raw stuff looks advanced for the level, but not so advanced that a promotion is imminent. Can he still make it this season? Sure, but High-A is the appropriate assignment for now.

The Question: Can McCabe’s profile translate to the majors?

The Braves surprised prospect watchers twice when it comes to first baseman McCabe, first when they left him unprotected for last December’s Rule 5 draft, and again when they assigned him to Double-A to begin the 2026 season.

As a 26-year-old, is he still on track to become a major leaguer, or is he destined to cap out as a career minor leaguer?

The Case For

The knock on McCabe has been his atypical profile - an on-base-oriented corner infielder isn’t as valued in a modern game that prioritizes power from the corner infield spots.

He’s never run a walk rate lower than the 11.6% he put up in Triple-A last year, but he’s added surprising power production this season. His single-season high for power production is 2023’s 17 home runs/.450 slug in 123 games across Single-A and High-A. But for the Clingstones, McCabe’s already at six homers and a .653 slug in just thirteen games (62 plate appearances).

A high on-base and power profile, even if it’s relegated to mostly designated hitter starts similarly to how the Phillies use Kyle Schwarber, absolutely has major league utility.

The Case Against

McCabe’s having a great start in Double-A…but he’s also 26, nearly two years older than the average player there in the Southern League. All six of his homers entering Wednesday’s action were against pitchers younger than him, producing a 1.121 OPS against those arms.

Additionally, the way in which McCabe’s getting his production is something that’s not entirely sustainable as he moves up the ladder and eventually to the bigs. He struggles with plate coverage on the outer third and against velocity, although he did make gains in that area with Gwinnett last season.

The Answer

Limited to first base and designated hitter presents an incredibly high bar for his offense, and McCabe’s bat just hasn’t shown the ability to do it against quality competition. It’s possible that he’s a late bloomer and his next exposure to Triple-A will help him answer these plate coverage and velocity questions, but prolonged, high-level performance under appropriate age-to-level conditions will be required to show he’s a future major leaguer.

The Question: Is there still a path for Lara in the majors?

The Braves gave Jhancarlos Lara a shot in the majors last year, promoting him in late September for a four-day stint in the bullpen.

He never got into a game, despite his parents flying from the Dominican Republic to Detroit and then Atlanta to watch him pitch. The Braves chose to use someone else for the 9th in a six-run game in Detroit, and then optioned him down to sign Charlie Morton despite the veteran having not yet reported to the team and not being slated to pitch until the following Sunday.

This season, he’s been working in Double-A Columbus. Can he make it back to Atlanta as a flamethrowing bullpen arm?

The Case For

No one in Atlanta’s system possesses the raw velocity of Lara. The youngster has an amazing heater, sitting 99 and having touched 102.6 last year, one that put up a whiff rate of 46% last year. It’s one of the best fastballs not only in the organization, but the entire minor leagues. He pairs it with a high-80s gyro slider that he can morph into a low-90s cutter, giving him a second weapon to generate whiffs (and potentially a third if he can consistently manipulate the shape).

The Case Against

He’s walked 204 batters in his career, a span of 268 innings, with a career WHIP of 1.530. Last year’s 19.9% walk rate was one of the ten worst for any qualified pitcher in the minor leagues, per MLB.com.

He hasn’t fared well with the move down to Double-A Columbus this year. Lara had an outing last week where he walked four and allowed two runs to score while recording only one out. (Naturally, it came via strikeout). In 34 appearances last year throughout various levels of Atlanta’s system, Lara had exactly ten where he didn’t issue a walk but thirteen of three or more walks. This included two six-walk starts and three different instances of recording three or more walks despite not recording even three outs.

The Answer

Lara’s the ultimate measure of extremes - his fastball might be an 80-grade offering, but it’s paired with 20-grade control. There are ‘effectively wild’ relievers who can run high walk rates alongside their electric stuff, including Matt Brash (career 10.9% walk rate, 30.7% strikeout rate) and Abner Uribe (11.7% wak rate, 28.8% strikeout rate).

But Lara’s career 29.6% strikeout rate can’t cover for a 16.9% walk rate. Massive control gains will need to happen if he wants to make it to the majors and actually stick in a major league bullpen.

The Bigger Picture

Not every prospect question has the same kind of answer.

Some, like Caminiti, are about timing. The talent is obvious, and the question is how quickly it forces the next move.

Some, like McCabe, are about translation. The production is there, but the margin for error at his position leaves very little room for it to slip.

And some, like Lara, are about survival. The raw stuff gives him a path, but the gap between where he is and what’s required at the major league level is still massive.

That’s what makes this part of the system so interesting.

It’s not just about who’s talented. It’s about who fits, who adapts, and who can answer the specific question in front of them.

And right now, all three of those answers are still very much in progress.