3 Questions, 3 Prospects: Murphy, Southisene, Hartman
From Murphy’s ceiling to Southisene’s development to Hartman’s power surge
Prospects aren’t just about tools and rankings.
Is a player at the right level?
Will the offensive profile actually work?
Is there still a path if something fundamental isn’t clicking?
Today’s edition is built around three of those questions:
What is Owen Murphy’s realistic ceiling, and should he be on the “untouchable” list?
Does Tate Southisene actually have a path to becoming a major leaguer?
Is this Eric Hartman power surge real?
Let’s talk about it.
The Question: Should Owen Murphy be Untouchable in Trades?
The Atlanta Braves profile as one of the best teams in baseball right now, leading MLB in runs (166), wins (20), and ERA (3.13). But they also have holes that will likely need to be addressed at the trade deadline, including left field (more on that later this week) and left-handed relief behind Dylan Lee. With some arguing that the trio of JR Ritchie, Didier Fuentes, and Cam Caminiti all shouldn’t be available via trade, should Atlanta’s first-round pick from 2022, Owen Murphy, also be untouchable now that he’s seemingly raised his ceiling?
The Case For
Murphy, coming off a non-roster invite to spring training, went to Double-A Columbus and has flashed impressive tools. In his most recent start, coming on Sunday against Birmingham, Murphy struck out nine thanks to fifteen whiffs and an average fastball velocity up to 95 mph.
Even at his post-TJ velo of 91-92 mph, Baseball America was impressed with the fastball’s shape and effectiveness, praising its “tremendous riding life and flat approach angle.” Back in spring training, the pitch averaged an absurdly elite twenty-one inches of induced vertical break at just under 92 mph. While we don’t have publicly available Statcast data for Double-A to compare its metrics on this most recent performance, IVB typically improves as fastball velocity increases. His Stuff+ grade on the fastball was 111 in spring, a figure that would undoubtedly rise at that new velocity. Only two MLB starters threw more than 55 four-seamers last year at 95 mph or harder with 21 inches of IVB: Dylan Cease and Ryne Nelson. Those two pitchers sported 4S Stuff+ marks of 122 (Cease) and 114 (Nelson).
That kind of outlier pitch is a tool to build an elite starting pitcher out of, not to trade away.
The Case Against
Owen Murphy’s stuff looks good in Double-A, but his results do not. The youngster is 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA for Columbus, with 18 walks to 27 strikeouts in his 20.2 innings. He’s already given up five home runs in just 98 batters faced, and his Fielding Independent Pitching is even worse at 7.10.
What’s worse is the batted ball profile has regressed with the jump into the upper minors - Murphy’s ground ball rate is a career-worst 26.9%, and it’s self-inflicted. Murphy is throwing a first-pitch strike less than half the time (49%), and so opposing hitters are running incredibly low swing rates of just 43.4% as they can let Murphy get himself in trouble and come into the zone to try and get a swing-and-miss.
The Answer
I lean toward not trading Murphy, because that outlier fastball is the type of offering that pitching coaches dream of from a prospect they’re developing. It’s no secret that he’s struggled with the jump to Double-A…but it’s also just 20.2 innings.
Understanding that no player is ever completely untouchable, Atlanta should set a high price for Murphy’s services and continue preparing him for a late 2027 debut.
The Question: Was the early panic about Tate Southisene’s professional debut overblown?
Atlanta’s first round pick from 2025, Southisene had an inauspicious start to his professional career: 27 strikeouts in his 64 at-bats last season, with just fourteen hits (none were home runs) and only one walk. The prep shortstop struggled in almost every respect, running a 40% whiff rate, chasing nearly as much (37%), and being swing happy (53%). Have things settled down now, or are early indications still that Atlanta made a mistake in last year’s first round?
The Case For
Southisene’s second go at Single-A is going much better than the first. After a .219/.242/.297 line last year, Southisene already has a .270/.444/.527 line through the first 20 games of Augusta’s season. He’s hit four home runs and stolen fifteen bags, and is showing the enticing power/speed combo that made Atlanta take him on an underslot deal out of the prep ranks.
The Case Against
The home runs are nice for Southisene, but that power potential was always on the scouting report for the youngster. The batted ball profile is still less than ideal, with a groundball rate that’s still over 50%. Additionally, Southisene’s swing decisions and newfound ability to walk feel like classic lower-minors shenanigans: He’s dropped to an absurdly low (and unsustainable) 35.6% swing percentage, meaning that he’s letting opposing pitchers give him walks rather than making the tough pitch recognition decisions that translate to the higher levels of the minors and pitchers who are better able to locate.
The Answer
It’s an unsatisfying answer for most, but neither group is correct here: It was too early to write him off last season, and it’s still too early to say he’s fixed.
What we’re seeing here, however, is positive development - Southisene had a significant flaw last year in his aggressiveness and is taking steps to correct it - and that development is far from finished. The next step will be fixing his launch angles by reducing the percentage of ground balls, which is usually both a swing plane and a swing decision problem.
While I don’t think Southisene stays in the teens on the updated prospect rankings after this season, the back half of the top ten is likely where he’ll end up and once the defensive questions get answered (is he a middle infielder or a centerfielder), the true path to the majors can get started.
The Question: Is Eric Hartman’s power surge real?
The Braves have been aggressive at going after cold-weather preps with shaky college commitments in recent years, adding Eric Hartman with their 20th-round pick in 2024 and paying him sixth-round money to forgo a commitment to the University of Michigan. He profiled as a speed-and-on-base option last season, playing both second base and left/center field last year with 44 stolen bases and a .240/.344/.374 line. This year, however, the lefty hitter has already surpassed last year’s total of five home runs (in 83 games) with eight in his first 19 contests for Rome.
The Case For
The power surge that’s come along with the bump from Single to High-A has been accompanied by some swing and underlying changes that make it appear real - he’s raised his average launch angle by ten degrees thanks to cutting his groundball rate from 46.5% to 26.4%, his average exit velocity is up 6.1 mph to 91.6, and his max exit velocity has jumped almost 4 mph to 109.1.
Most prep players have a point where the physical maturity takes a leap, and it’s often after that first full season in professional baseball. That timing tracks for Hartman, who would turn 20 this June.
The Case Against
The two observations that stand out for Hartman are about his batted ball profile and his physical frame - Hartman has become a bit of a pull side merchant, doing an exceptional job at getting balls both in the air and to the pull side. While he’s added more size and strength to his frame, he appears to be close to physical maturity, the point where any more weight will start to have detrimental effects on his speed and agility. The exit velocities, while being roughly average for his age and level, don’t seem to have much more room to grow, and so he’s likely not going to end up as a 30+ homer bat as he continues to rise through the system.
The Answer
I don’t think Hartman’s become a slugger by any stretch of the imagination, but being able to both tap into his strength gains and with a swing built to maximize that strength, Hartman’s ceiling has risen from 2B/OF utility option to a potential everyday starter in the mold of a Jeff McNeil.
The Bigger Picture
Not every prospect question gets answered the same way.
Murphy is a bet on upside; the kind of arm you hold onto because one elite pitch can change everything if the rest clicks.
Southisene is a bet on development; a player who clearly had a flaw and is now in the process of working through it, with plenty left to prove.
Hartman is a bet on adjustment; a player whose profile is evolving in real time, raising his ceiling while still leaving open questions about how it plays at higher levels.
That’s the reality of a system like Atlanta’s right now.
It’s not just about who has the most talent. It’s about who can answer the specific question in front of them, whether that’s refining command, tightening swing decisions, or proving a new version of themselves is real.
And right now, all three of those answers are still unfolding.