The Braves’ pursuit of Jacob deGrom - and the ordinary stuff behind most of the deadline’s other starters - reveals how Atlanta thinks about collecting 27 outs in October.
Lindsay! Incredibly thorough article! Very impressive. It’s a pleasure to read your words. In addition to your data on available starters, based on the 27 outs theory, were there any Stuff + relievers out there that AA considered?
We don't have any reporting on that, sadly, so I don't know. I could try and pull a list of the guys traded and check them by these same benchmarks, but it would be guessing
Excellent review. As disappointing as Monday was, with AA apparently having made a serious effort to land Skubal or DeGrom, I, too, am glad he didn't settle for the remaining 'ordinary stuff'. I do wish he had gotten one more big arm for the pen given how much the Braves will be depending on them for the non-Sale games.
Good analysis. Much of keeping that #2 playoff ranking falls to our "stuff minus" guys. They're a proud, determined group, and it's fun to root for their success.
Were the Braves willing to take on deGrom's full $$ owed without offloading Strider's two year obligation to Texas? We may never know. Whether and how Strider ever pitches again for ATL sounds iffy. He may be a $22m per annum closer. Stuff +/-, who knows?
If such a wild speculation blunders into the truth, would a team be right to fib or mislead another to protect its relationship with a player under contract?
Outstanding work!! Really good explanations and insights.
The Braves path in the playoffs needs to mirror the Dodgers approach in 2024. In the Division series against the Padres, Dodger SPs averaged 3.2 innings and they used an average of almost 6 pitchers per game. In the NLCS against the Mets, Dodger SPs averaged 3.1 innings and they used an average of 4.5 pitchers per game. The Braves top 5 in the bullpen, if Suarez is healthy and effectiv,
is as good (maybe better) than the Dodgers. Braves have the potential to score as many runs as Dodgers did in 2024 if healthy and Riley continues to perform. (No impact on final, but Riley not striking out or hitting the ball on the ground and getting a sac fly in the 6th was a big step). I would like to see the Braves sort out the last 2 bullpen spots. Although, in the playoffs, it’s likely either Reylo or Holmes is in the pen.
You'll get extra bullpen spots because you'll only have three guys designated as starters. I'd guess the Braves throw ReyLo and Holmes back there and then go with two high-octane arms like a Rolddy Muñoz or someone, but they need to be given a chance in the majors before October and we're running out of time
Casey Mize, prior to the deadline had 3.0 fWAR, a 17.1 K-BB%, and a 3.78 xFIP. You can combine the starters not named Sale in Atlanta and barely get 3.0 fWAR from them collectively, much less have one that gets that by himself.
The same goes for Gausman and Soriano.
AA made the choice he did for one reason and one reason only. They were cheap options that he didn’t have to pay market value to get.
Excuse me. Mize actually had a 19.4% K-BB% at the deadline. All his numbers are what you would expect from a SP2.
Also, if stuff+ is such a big deal, why is Atlanta trying to get by with a group of pitchers with very below average stuff+? Why are they relying on that and ignoring much better pitchers just because they don’t have elite stuff+?
Because *they* don't think the pitchers are "much" better? I don't know, Doc - this is my attempt to reverse-engineer what I think *THEY* were doing, as I always do, and you're choosing to interpret it as me defending AA even though I've said on the podcast and the newsletter that I disagreed with the deadline approach.
I was the head of a quality review board at a hospital where I made rounds back when I got out of residency. When I reviewed the cases presented, I didn’t try to explain why something was done. I just identified whether it was a mistake or not a mistake.
What AA did at the deadline and in the offseason was a mistake.
Lindsay, would you either...add the Braves Starters - Sale, Holmes, ReLo, Elder, Perez and AJSS to your spreadsheet or would you be kind enough to send me a copy of your spreadsheet and tell me where to go to find the information to add the aforementioned Braves starters to it.
And while this article makes a lot of sense...it does NOT explain why, if 27 outs is what AA is working toward, he did not add a couple of stud relievers who possess the Whiff%, K% and Stuff+ numbers that we're looking for. I would like you to address that.
Holmes, specifically, irritates me because he has the whiff but not the Ks that go with it. He's getting swings but not converting those into strikeouts
I'm not completely sure - he overuses the slider with two strikes (>50% usage) and underuses the curveball (12%), so maybe it's the sequencing and they're ready for it?
Exceptional piece!
Thanks, Royce! It's been rattling around in my head now for a few days and your comments about the podcast finally broke it loose.
Lindsay! Incredibly thorough article! Very impressive. It’s a pleasure to read your words. In addition to your data on available starters, based on the 27 outs theory, were there any Stuff + relievers out there that AA considered?
We don't have any reporting on that, sadly, so I don't know. I could try and pull a list of the guys traded and check them by these same benchmarks, but it would be guessing
Excellent review. As disappointing as Monday was, with AA apparently having made a serious effort to land Skubal or DeGrom, I, too, am glad he didn't settle for the remaining 'ordinary stuff'. I do wish he had gotten one more big arm for the pen given how much the Braves will be depending on them for the non-Sale games.
Yeah, if you're accepting that this approach was the best one, it requires asking why there wasn't another big arm reliever added to the bullpen.
Thanks for your great and infornative analysis.
Good analysis. Much of keeping that #2 playoff ranking falls to our "stuff minus" guys. They're a proud, determined group, and it's fun to root for their success.
Were the Braves willing to take on deGrom's full $$ owed without offloading Strider's two year obligation to Texas? We may never know. Whether and how Strider ever pitches again for ATL sounds iffy. He may be a $22m per annum closer. Stuff +/-, who knows?
Jesús Cano said that Strider was NOT part of the proposed deGrom deal, so I think that was mostly Bowman wildly speculating rather than reporting
If such a wild speculation blunders into the truth, would a team be right to fib or mislead another to protect its relationship with a player under contract?
Outstanding work!! Really good explanations and insights.
The Braves path in the playoffs needs to mirror the Dodgers approach in 2024. In the Division series against the Padres, Dodger SPs averaged 3.2 innings and they used an average of almost 6 pitchers per game. In the NLCS against the Mets, Dodger SPs averaged 3.1 innings and they used an average of 4.5 pitchers per game. The Braves top 5 in the bullpen, if Suarez is healthy and effectiv,
is as good (maybe better) than the Dodgers. Braves have the potential to score as many runs as Dodgers did in 2024 if healthy and Riley continues to perform. (No impact on final, but Riley not striking out or hitting the ball on the ground and getting a sac fly in the 6th was a big step). I would like to see the Braves sort out the last 2 bullpen spots. Although, in the playoffs, it’s likely either Reylo or Holmes is in the pen.
You'll get extra bullpen spots because you'll only have three guys designated as starters. I'd guess the Braves throw ReyLo and Holmes back there and then go with two high-octane arms like a Rolddy Muñoz or someone, but they need to be given a chance in the majors before October and we're running out of time
Sigh. Just more attempts to justify why AA did not improve the team’s championship chances at the deadline.
It's an explanation, not an excuse. I even said in the conclusion that this made their path at a championship narrower.
OK.
Casey Mize, prior to the deadline had 3.0 fWAR, a 17.1 K-BB%, and a 3.78 xFIP. You can combine the starters not named Sale in Atlanta and barely get 3.0 fWAR from them collectively, much less have one that gets that by himself.
The same goes for Gausman and Soriano.
AA made the choice he did for one reason and one reason only. They were cheap options that he didn’t have to pay market value to get.
They clearly don't think Mize can get outs in October with that poor Stuff+
Excuse me. Mize actually had a 19.4% K-BB% at the deadline. All his numbers are what you would expect from a SP2.
Also, if stuff+ is such a big deal, why is Atlanta trying to get by with a group of pitchers with very below average stuff+? Why are they relying on that and ignoring much better pitchers just because they don’t have elite stuff+?
Because *they* don't think the pitchers are "much" better? I don't know, Doc - this is my attempt to reverse-engineer what I think *THEY* were doing, as I always do, and you're choosing to interpret it as me defending AA even though I've said on the podcast and the newsletter that I disagreed with the deadline approach.
I was the head of a quality review board at a hospital where I made rounds back when I got out of residency. When I reviewed the cases presented, I didn’t try to explain why something was done. I just identified whether it was a mistake or not a mistake.
What AA did at the deadline and in the offseason was a mistake.
Lindsay, would you either...add the Braves Starters - Sale, Holmes, ReLo, Elder, Perez and AJSS to your spreadsheet or would you be kind enough to send me a copy of your spreadsheet and tell me where to go to find the information to add the aforementioned Braves starters to it.
And while this article makes a lot of sense...it does NOT explain why, if 27 outs is what AA is working toward, he did not add a couple of stud relievers who possess the Whiff%, K% and Stuff+ numbers that we're looking for. I would like you to address that.
Thanks,
John
Here are the rest of the guys:
| Pitcher | Whiff% | K% | Stuff+ |
| -------------- | -----: | ----: | -----: |
| Chris Sale | 30.7% | 30.4% | 118 |
| Grant Holmes | 26.9% | 19.7% | 88 |
| Reynaldo López | 21.8% | 21.6% | 90 |
| Bryce Elder | 21.8% | 19.7% | 85 |
| Martín Pérez | 22.3% | 19.2% | 87 |
Holmes, specifically, irritates me because he has the whiff but not the Ks that go with it. He's getting swings but not converting those into strikeouts
How does that happen? Sequencing issues? Batters being extra careful with 2 strikes?
I'm not completely sure - he overuses the slider with two strikes (>50% usage) and underuses the curveball (12%), so maybe it's the sequencing and they're ready for it?