The Braves’ pursuit of Jacob deGrom - and the ordinary stuff behind most of the deadline’s other starters - reveals how Atlanta thinks about collecting 27 outs in October.
Good analysis. Much of keeping that #2 playoff ranking falls to our "stuff minus" guys. They're a proud, determined group, and it's fun to root for their success.
Were the Braves willing to take on deGrom's full $$ owed without offloading Strider's two year obligation to Texas? We may never know. Whether and how Strider ever pitches again for ATL sounds iffy. He may be a $22m per annum closer. Stuff +/-, who knows?
If such a wild speculation blunders into the truth, would a team be right to fib or mislead another to protect its relationship with a player under contract?
Outstanding work!! Really good explanations and insights.
The Braves path in the playoffs needs to mirror the Dodgers approach in 2024. In the Division series against the Padres, Dodger SPs averaged 3.2 innings and they used an average of almost 6 pitchers per game. In the NLCS against the Mets, Dodger SPs averaged 3.1 innings and they used an average of 4.5 pitchers per game. The Braves top 5 in the bullpen, if Suarez is healthy and effectiv,
is as good (maybe better) than the Dodgers. Braves have the potential to score as many runs as Dodgers did in 2024 if healthy and Riley continues to perform. (No impact on final, but Riley not striking out or hitting the ball on the ground and getting a sac fly in the 6th was a big step). I would like to see the Braves sort out the last 2 bullpen spots. Although, in the playoffs, it’s likely either Reylo or Holmes is in the pen.
You'll get extra bullpen spots because you'll only have three guys designated as starters. I'd guess the Braves throw ReyLo and Holmes back there and then go with two high-octane arms like a Rolddy Muñoz or someone, but they need to be given a chance in the majors before October and we're running out of time
Lindsay, would you either...add the Braves Starters - Sale, Holmes, ReLo, Elder, Perez and AJSS to your spreadsheet or would you be kind enough to send me a copy of your spreadsheet and tell me where to go to find the information to add the aforementioned Braves starters to it.
And while this article makes a lot of sense...it does NOT explain why, if 27 outs is what AA is working toward, he did not add a couple of stud relievers who possess the Whiff%, K% and Stuff+ numbers that we're looking for. I would like you to address that.
Holmes, specifically, irritates me because he has the whiff but not the Ks that go with it. He's getting swings but not converting those into strikeouts
I'm not completely sure - he overuses the slider with two strikes (>50% usage) and underuses the curveball (12%), so maybe it's the sequencing and they're ready for it?
Exceptional piece!
Thanks, Royce! It's been rattling around in my head now for a few days and your comments about the podcast finally broke it loose.
Good analysis. Much of keeping that #2 playoff ranking falls to our "stuff minus" guys. They're a proud, determined group, and it's fun to root for their success.
Were the Braves willing to take on deGrom's full $$ owed without offloading Strider's two year obligation to Texas? We may never know. Whether and how Strider ever pitches again for ATL sounds iffy. He may be a $22m per annum closer. Stuff +/-, who knows?
Jesús Cano said that Strider was NOT part of the proposed deGrom deal, so I think that was mostly Bowman wildly speculating rather than reporting
If such a wild speculation blunders into the truth, would a team be right to fib or mislead another to protect its relationship with a player under contract?
Outstanding work!! Really good explanations and insights.
The Braves path in the playoffs needs to mirror the Dodgers approach in 2024. In the Division series against the Padres, Dodger SPs averaged 3.2 innings and they used an average of almost 6 pitchers per game. In the NLCS against the Mets, Dodger SPs averaged 3.1 innings and they used an average of 4.5 pitchers per game. The Braves top 5 in the bullpen, if Suarez is healthy and effectiv,
is as good (maybe better) than the Dodgers. Braves have the potential to score as many runs as Dodgers did in 2024 if healthy and Riley continues to perform. (No impact on final, but Riley not striking out or hitting the ball on the ground and getting a sac fly in the 6th was a big step). I would like to see the Braves sort out the last 2 bullpen spots. Although, in the playoffs, it’s likely either Reylo or Holmes is in the pen.
You'll get extra bullpen spots because you'll only have three guys designated as starters. I'd guess the Braves throw ReyLo and Holmes back there and then go with two high-octane arms like a Rolddy Muñoz or someone, but they need to be given a chance in the majors before October and we're running out of time
Lindsay, would you either...add the Braves Starters - Sale, Holmes, ReLo, Elder, Perez and AJSS to your spreadsheet or would you be kind enough to send me a copy of your spreadsheet and tell me where to go to find the information to add the aforementioned Braves starters to it.
And while this article makes a lot of sense...it does NOT explain why, if 27 outs is what AA is working toward, he did not add a couple of stud relievers who possess the Whiff%, K% and Stuff+ numbers that we're looking for. I would like you to address that.
Thanks,
John
Here are the rest of the guys:
| Pitcher | Whiff% | K% | Stuff+ |
| -------------- | -----: | ----: | -----: |
| Chris Sale | 30.7% | 30.4% | 118 |
| Grant Holmes | 26.9% | 19.7% | 88 |
| Reynaldo López | 21.8% | 21.6% | 90 |
| Bryce Elder | 21.8% | 19.7% | 85 |
| Martín Pérez | 22.3% | 19.2% | 87 |
Holmes, specifically, irritates me because he has the whiff but not the Ks that go with it. He's getting swings but not converting those into strikeouts
How does that happen? Sequencing issues? Batters being extra careful with 2 strikes?
I'm not completely sure - he overuses the slider with two strikes (>50% usage) and underuses the curveball (12%), so maybe it's the sequencing and they're ready for it?