Anthopoulogy: Scouting Jung Hoo Lee as a Trade Target
Not every trade target fits Atlanta's philosophy. Jung Hoo Lee just might.
Anthopoulogy Trade Card Verdict: Worth the Call.
The San Francisco Giants, series win over the Atlanta Braves notwithstanding, are having a nightmare season.
Long removed from the 107-win 2021 season that saw them believe they could perpetually challenge the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West, the Giants entered play on Tuesday with one of MLB’s worst records at 35-49, already 19.5 games back.
It’s a disaster of such epic proportions that President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey is the rare baseball head that’s already acknowledged the team will more than likely be selling at the deadline.
A lot of attention will go to San Francisco’s expiring contracts, most notably veteran starter Robbie Ray and second baseman/singles specialist Luis Arraez. And they’d love to unload many of their unproductive long-term deals, like SS Willy Adames ($140M remaining, .705 OPS), 1B Rafael Devers ($211M remaining, .748 OPS), and 3B Matt Chapman ($100M remaining, .699 OPS).1
But there’s another long-term contract that would be appealing to Atlanta, belonging to a contact-oriented outfielder at a position of need: outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Let’s build the Trade Card.
The Player
Who is he?
Age: 27
Contract: signed for six years, $113M in December of 2023
Control remaining: four years, $87.5M remaining (can opt-out after 2027)
Position: RF/CF
Offense: Hitting .321/.353/.460, 127 wRC+
Defense: -3 Fielding Run Value, -2 Outs Above Average, -4 Defensive Runs Saved
What kind of player is this?
Lee is the rare modern hitter whose game is built almost entirely around contact; he doesn’t draw many walks and doesn’t hit for a lot of power. He has 13 career homers in 263 Major League games, but also a career .281 average. His current .353 on-base percentage is driven by putting balls in play, with just a 4.2% walk rate.
If it helps, think of him as an outfield version of Luis Arraez, albeit one with more power.
Why Atlanta Would Want Him
Lee would be a great ‘table-setting’ option at the top of the lineup. While he’s better against righties than lefties, Lee runs above-average batting averages against both hands and could help provide traffic for the heart of Atlanta’s order to drive in.
He solves the problem of too many whiffs and strikeouts in the lineup, sporting a 97th percentile whiff rate of 12.5% and a 98th percentile strikeout rate of 9.5%.
Lee isn’t being acquired for his glove, but his defensive metrics are not nearly as rough in right field as they’ve been in center, where he played the first two seasons in San Francisco. His arm, while strong, tends to be inaccurate at times.
He’d also pass Atlanta’s ‘clubhouse chemistry’ filter - per reports, he’s not only beloved inside the clubhouse, but a section of the bleachers has branded itself the “Hoo Lee Gans” and he’s a fan favorite.
He fits the offensive profile of some of Atlanta’s more recent acquisitions like Mauricio Dubón and Jurickson Profar - not known for his power, but with the inherent skills and contact ability to put plenty of balls into play and run a high on-base percentage.
Why The Giants Might Listen
The main reason the Giants might consider moving him is his pending opt-out.
Lee has the ability to walk away from the final two years and $41M remaining on the deal after the 2027 season, re-entering free agency at the age of 29. While it’s virtually impossible to predict that decision from a distance, the possibility of a 29-year-old high-contact bat getting more than 2/$41M is entirely realistic, so I’d lean towards assuming an opt-out as of now.
Which changes the calculus for the Giants. They’re likely going to move anything that’s not nailed down this deadline (and they’re willing to pry up Devers, Chapman, and Adames if they can find takers), but replacements aren’t exactly breaking down the door of their Triple-A affiliate in Sacramento.
Of MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 prospects for the Giants system, nine of the top twelve are in the lower minors, including each of the top five, and twenty overall. Three of their four highest position player prospects are all in Double-A. The extent of their ranked Triple-A prospects is a few second-tier arms and a backup catcher.
And those second-tier arms are likely going to be needed in the majors next season. Logan Webb has team control, as does Logan Roupp, but both Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle are free agents after this season and Hayden Birdsong likely won’t return until the second half after his Tommy John surgery this March.
Things aren’t looking up anytime soon, is what I’m saying.
While it’s likely not a priority for San Francisco to move Lee, exchanging the final year-plus of service time for some prospect capital is a better proposition than watching him toil away and walking in free agency. Between recently promoted Jonah Cox and existing outfielders Drew Gilbert, Heliot Ramos, Victor Bericoto, and utilityman Casey Schmitt, San Francisco has plenty of team control remaining in their outfield for the next competitive window.
The Obstacles
Every trade has reasons that it might not happen.
The first is one that we’ve already covered - the Giants don’t have to move Lee. I’m sure they’d like to beef up their farm system, especially in the upper levels, but it’s not urgent.
This trade might never happen. Maybe they feel they can get Lee to bypass his opt-out and remain with the club for the next four seasons. That feels unlikely, as Lee is repped by uber-aggressive agent Scott Boras and he’s known for taking his guys to free agency in almost every situation.
That one exception? Giants third baseman Matt Chapman, who signed a pillow deal ahead of the 2024 season and then inked a six-year, $154M extension that September to finish his career by the Bay.
The other is another, outfield-needy team attempting to come in and either outbid Atlanta with prospect capital or by taking one of the ‘bad’ contracts off San Francisco’s hands.
The Anthopoulogy Test
Let’s think about this as if we were Alex Anthopoulos.
He’s been more inclined to acquire players with similar offensive profiles to Lee in the last few seasons, most notably by signing Jurickson Profar.
While the player-friendly contract provision of granting an opt-out doesn’t fit the way Atlanta typically likes to do business, the amount being in the low-$20M AAV range and the length not extending into a player’s 30s absolutely does mirror several of Atlanta’s more recent contracts.
The acquisition cost is likely going to center on upper minors pitching prospects, and if there’s anything the Braves have, it’s that. While Atlanta would likely balk at including Owen Murphy or Garrett Baumann in the deal, they have plenty of backend-type arms to deal from between the likes of JR Ritchie, Drue Hackenberg, Brett Sears, Lucas Braun, etc.
Adding Lee would make the Braves both younger and better, replacing either the need to rely on a then-37-year-old Mike Yastrzemski or a twice-suspended Jurickson Profar in an outfield corner. Additionally, were Ronald Acuña Jr. to miss more time due to injury, the Braves would be able to slot in an alternative at leadoff hitter during those absences.
Based on what we know about Atlanta’s willingness to take on a contract to get a player (see Raisel Iglesias, Jorge Soler, etc.), it genuinely feels like Alex Anthopoulos would actually make this trade if it were available.
The Trade Card
Trade Card
Player: Jung Hoo Lee
Position(s): RF/CF
Age: 27
Years of Control: Either through 2027 (player opt-out) or 2029
Current Contract: 3/$64.25M remaining after this season
Atlanta Fit: ★★★★
Acquisition Cost: ★★★★
Likelihood: ★★★★
Anthopoulogy Score: 8.5/10
Best Argument For:
He’s a contact-oriented bat at a position of need with multiple years of control
Biggest Concern:
Player opt-outs shift the risk from the player to the team, and San Francisco may value Lee as four years of control while the Braves would likely price him closer to two because of the opt-out.
Verdict:
If Jung Hoo Lee is genuinely available, this is exactly the kind of move I’d expect Alex Anthopoulos to explore aggressively. The years of control, offensive profile, clubhouse reputation, and reasonable contract all fit Atlanta’s recent roster-building philosophy remarkably well.
Final Grade
Aggressively pursue.
They’ve already declared they are not trading ace Logan Webb, unfortunately.)