Another spot-on analysis and thanks for adding a realistic take on what the off-season might look like. The team needs to plan beyond the starting 5. They need to have a plan for the guys 6-9 that can step in and provide 75-125 innings. Crossing your fingers that the waiver wire will provide the answer isn’t working out so well. Figure it out now and have a solid plan by the end of ST. It’s an imperative and it’s hard. And signing FAs isn’t the answer either. Consider this: Supposed Braves resigned Morton for $15 million in 2025, They would’ve gotten 132 IP / 5.51 ERA. Braves use Elder instead for $800k amd get: 124 IP / 5.85 ERA.
Fun article. The kind of stuff I’m looking forward to as the season winds down and offseason begins. Figured I’d throw one out under similar assumptions.
Eflin: 2/25
Devin Williams: 1/15 (I more than doubled Spotrac)
Lane Thomas: 2/12 (Once again went much higher than Spotrac, with the PF injury extremely hard one to evaluate *I also think this might be a 3M with a 9 million club option with a buyout or something)
Iglesias: 2/15
Got it done in around 40 million. Frankly if they aren’t able to swing a trade I don’t think bringing back Ozuna is as out of the question as a lot of people think either. This isn’t necessarily my most desired offseason but it’s an educated guess based on how AA operates.
I'm absolutely with you on the possiblity that Ozuna comes back. He's likely going to linger on the market because he's an older DH, so AA may pivot there.
I've always liked Lane Thomas so I'm not opposed to trying it, but I like the 1+1 structure if they can get him to take it with a pending lockout
It’s funny you are starting to jump on the lockout conversation. In fantasy I’ve got my pre lockout prospects and post lockout prospects. It’s going to be a long year….
Apologies for the typos… inadvertently posted b4 I had a chance to proof-read. The Braves saved 5%+ of their payroll using Elder instead of Morton with results that aren’t dramatically different. A realistic and affordable plan to cover the innings beyond the top 5 SPs is critical.
Outside of the top 5, they currently have Elder and Wentz. Ritchie and, to a lesser extent, Fuentes are graduation candidates. And there is some chance that Holmes is ready for ST. I don't see a major need at SP, personally.
Signing a less expensive SP like Soroka or May for 10-12M gives you another 8-10M to spend on a bat. I think Sale/Schwell/Strider/Lopez/Waldrup is fine as your top 5. And adding Soroka or May to Wentz/Elder/Ritchie feels like enough depth.
Then maybe you can sign someone like Yastrzemski and have all kinds of OF/DH flexibility and depth.
I'd love to see Dustin May figure it out. I wonder if Atlanta does some sort of established guy plus a reclamation project like a May, someone with stuff who can be in the pen if they can't figure it out over the offseason
I believe Holmes was chosen over Morton or any other Free agent 5th starter type. Holmes outperformed all of the 15/20 million 1 year deals save one, I believe.
Lindsey the Braves may have had 20-25 million more to put into the payroll over the winter when everyone was screaming to do something! AA did not like the prices and passed. With hindsight being close to 20/20 maybe 18/20 with 23 games left. Was there any free agent deals for a starter and reliever that could have saved this cursed season? And if the Braves do get a top 3 pick (and if they spent the 7 million they would not get the top pick at all) what kind of bonus pool would the Braves have? What kind of pool would they have if they spent over that 7 million on someone?
There's not any realistic combination of free agents that would have saved the Braves when all five Opening Day starters were on the 60-day IL. As I said the other day, that's a 10th percentile outcome and you can't reasonably prepare for that
Good overall analysis. I think McGuirk and AA owe the true Braves fans (as opposed to the investors of real estate) a pay-back for their penny pinching which contributed to the disaster of 2025. The core of a good team is there, but with some of them facing an aging issue (Sale, Johnson) and the real possibility of a strike shortened 2027 season, next year is the year to go all in.
I like your idea of trading Bummer. He's an early-middle inning guy at best and overpaid.
I have a problem with Murphy, too. He's a better than average catcher but he's barely hitting .200 and is a high double play risk every time he comes up with runners on base. How AA could be so wrong about him vs. Contreras is amazing.
Bruce, I agree Mrphy is good defensively but we must be able to get a competent catcher who hits at least 250 consistently. Time to let the Bear make a move. Profar can be the DH with the other outfielders we have now.
I'm not disagreeing, but I do want to throw out that catcher offense is a much lower bar to meet. Heading into Thursday night's games, there's exactly seven qualified catchers with a batting average over .250 (and coincidentally, two of them are former Braves)
Ozuna looks disinterested. He has been a real force for several years but I think it's time for the Braves to revamp their DH plans. (I would love to see the Braves make a move for Schwarber but Philly probably wouldn't let that happen even if AA and McGuirk opened up the coffers.)
Another spot-on analysis and thanks for adding a realistic take on what the off-season might look like. The team needs to plan beyond the starting 5. They need to have a plan for the guys 6-9 that can step in and provide 75-125 innings. Crossing your fingers that the waiver wire will provide the answer isn’t working out so well. Figure it out now and have a solid plan by the end of ST. It’s an imperative and it’s hard. And signing FAs isn’t the answer either. Consider this: Supposed Braves resigned Morton for $15 million in 2025, They would’ve gotten 132 IP / 5.51 ERA. Braves use Elder instead for $800k amd get: 124 IP / 5.85 ERA.
Fun article. The kind of stuff I’m looking forward to as the season winds down and offseason begins. Figured I’d throw one out under similar assumptions.
Eflin: 2/25
Devin Williams: 1/15 (I more than doubled Spotrac)
Lane Thomas: 2/12 (Once again went much higher than Spotrac, with the PF injury extremely hard one to evaluate *I also think this might be a 3M with a 9 million club option with a buyout or something)
Iglesias: 2/15
Got it done in around 40 million. Frankly if they aren’t able to swing a trade I don’t think bringing back Ozuna is as out of the question as a lot of people think either. This isn’t necessarily my most desired offseason but it’s an educated guess based on how AA operates.
I'm absolutely with you on the possiblity that Ozuna comes back. He's likely going to linger on the market because he's an older DH, so AA may pivot there.
I've always liked Lane Thomas so I'm not opposed to trying it, but I like the 1+1 structure if they can get him to take it with a pending lockout
It’s funny you are starting to jump on the lockout conversation. In fantasy I’ve got my pre lockout prospects and post lockout prospects. It’s going to be a long year….
Apologies for the typos… inadvertently posted b4 I had a chance to proof-read. The Braves saved 5%+ of their payroll using Elder instead of Morton with results that aren’t dramatically different. A realistic and affordable plan to cover the innings beyond the top 5 SPs is critical.
Outside of the top 5, they currently have Elder and Wentz. Ritchie and, to a lesser extent, Fuentes are graduation candidates. And there is some chance that Holmes is ready for ST. I don't see a major need at SP, personally.
Signing a less expensive SP like Soroka or May for 10-12M gives you another 8-10M to spend on a bat. I think Sale/Schwell/Strider/Lopez/Waldrup is fine as your top 5. And adding Soroka or May to Wentz/Elder/Ritchie feels like enough depth.
Then maybe you can sign someone like Yastrzemski and have all kinds of OF/DH flexibility and depth.
I'd love to see Dustin May figure it out. I wonder if Atlanta does some sort of established guy plus a reclamation project like a May, someone with stuff who can be in the pen if they can't figure it out over the offseason
Some names there: May, Buehler (although he might be too expensive)
Always amazing you. Thank you for this.
I believe Holmes was chosen over Morton or any other Free agent 5th starter type. Holmes outperformed all of the 15/20 million 1 year deals save one, I believe.
Lindsey the Braves may have had 20-25 million more to put into the payroll over the winter when everyone was screaming to do something! AA did not like the prices and passed. With hindsight being close to 20/20 maybe 18/20 with 23 games left. Was there any free agent deals for a starter and reliever that could have saved this cursed season? And if the Braves do get a top 3 pick (and if they spent the 7 million they would not get the top pick at all) what kind of bonus pool would the Braves have? What kind of pool would they have if they spent over that 7 million on someone?
There's not any realistic combination of free agents that would have saved the Braves when all five Opening Day starters were on the 60-day IL. As I said the other day, that's a 10th percentile outcome and you can't reasonably prepare for that
Good overall analysis. I think McGuirk and AA owe the true Braves fans (as opposed to the investors of real estate) a pay-back for their penny pinching which contributed to the disaster of 2025. The core of a good team is there, but with some of them facing an aging issue (Sale, Johnson) and the real possibility of a strike shortened 2027 season, next year is the year to go all in.
I like your idea of trading Bummer. He's an early-middle inning guy at best and overpaid.
I am not happy with Murphy. We could trade him and try for another start up and promising catcher. What about the Bear (Ozuna)?
I have a problem with Murphy, too. He's a better than average catcher but he's barely hitting .200 and is a high double play risk every time he comes up with runners on base. How AA could be so wrong about him vs. Contreras is amazing.
Bruce, I agree Mrphy is good defensively but we must be able to get a competent catcher who hits at least 250 consistently. Time to let the Bear make a move. Profar can be the DH with the other outfielders we have now.
I'm not disagreeing, but I do want to throw out that catcher offense is a much lower bar to meet. Heading into Thursday night's games, there's exactly seven qualified catchers with a batting average over .250 (and coincidentally, two of them are former Braves)
Alejandro Kirk: .299/.363/.433
Hunter Goodman: .280/.326/.526
J.T. Realmuto: .266/.323/.400
Ryan Jeffers: .262/.354/.395
William Contreras: .261/.357/.411
Shea Langeliers: .260/.306/.533
Yanier Diaz: .252/.284/.412
Ozuna looks disinterested. He has been a real force for several years but I think it's time for the Braves to revamp their DH plans. (I would love to see the Braves make a move for Schwarber but Philly probably wouldn't let that happen even if AA and McGuirk opened up the coffers.)