Welcome back to Braves Today’s Friday Mailbag, where we solicit questions from you, the readers. Doing a mailbag even once, let alone on a regularly scheduled basis, is an egocentric exercise, so I’m grateful to everyone who reached out with questions.
As Jason Isbell sings, “I’m lucky to have the work.”
(If you have something to submit for the mailbag, you can email me at contact@bravestoday.com. Paid subscribers get first priority, but I pull questions from email and social media too.)
Let’s talk about it.
I was listening to MLB Radio this week and heard Alex Avila discussing different free-agent catcher options surrounding Ryan Jeffers. He mentioned that, for him, he would pick a catcher with offensive skills over defensive skills every day of the week. Wrong or right, with my rose-colored Sean Murphy glasses on, I took immediate offense.
However, the more I thought about it as a fan of defense, game-calling, and ABS zone smarts, it made me wonder how much offense I am willing to sacrifice for that. Would I let more offensive weakness slide than the average Braves fan? Should I?
Do you think there’s a bigger difference between the best-hitting and worst-hitting catcher in the league, or between the best-fielding and worst-fielding catcher? Other than WAR, is there a way to quantify the balance of a catcher that you think tells the best story? I feel like catchers would be a nightmare to successfully scout.
Darin
Love this question - thanks, Darin.
As someone who used to do a daily prospect podcast and struggled to get enough looks at a prospect to have an informed idea of their defense, it is a nightmare to scout that aspect of the game, and that’s doubly so for catchers.
I’m on the side of preferring the catcher’s defense over the offense, similar to you. I think a lot of that is the impact that it can have on your team as a whole, and specifically your pitching staff. A great defensive catcher can cover up for mistakes and optimize your pitching to a level that a bad catcher just can’t do.
Our ability to fully evaluate catcher defense in the public sphere is sorely lacking - this is the biggest outstanding analytical “blind spot” right now, according to analytics people I’ve spoken to around the league - but even with what we do know how to track and quantify, we know that the league’s best defensive catcher has a larger impact on the game than the best defensive outfielder or infielder.
Here are 2025’s leaders in Fielding Run Value, split between those three types of fielders, along with the components that went into their scores:
Patrick Bailey (catcher): +31 FRV // +25 runs from framing, +5 runs from throwing, +1 run from blocking
Pete Crow-Armstrong (center fielder): +21 FRV // +18 runs from range (Outs Above Average), +3 runs from arm value
Bobby Witt Jr. (shortstop): +20 FRV // +18 runs from Range (OAA), +0 runs from arm value, +2 runs from double plays
(Framing’s gotten so much better over the last 15-20 years, but that’s a newsletter for another day.)
The catcher has the largest defensive impact that we can currently measure, and I suspect game calling and overall guidance of the pitching staff play a larger role than we probably think.
The hard part here is that the standard for catcher offense is lower than other positions, and so outstanding catcher offense is more of a differentiator than outstanding catcher defense according to the metrics that we have. Some of this is due to the presence of the defense-first backup catcher, but also a recognition of the difficulties of the position and the toll it takes on your body.
Here’s each position in MLB in 2026, sorted by OPS:
Catcher: .690
Second base: .698
Shortstop: .703
Center field: .714
Third base: .717
Left field: .724
Right field: .731
Designated hitter: .737
First base: .771
I can see why Avila would want the better offensive player, as his above-average offensive ability is more of a differentiator versus his peers than if you had the best offensive right fielder in the league or the best first baseman.
(Atlanta has both when they’re on in Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson.)
I’m not including this to discredit his opinion at all, but I do also want to point out that Avila’s own career could probably help explain that preference. Most of his value came from his bat, and that 2011 breakout season for the Tigers at age 24 demonstrated exactly how much an impact offensive catcher can lift a lineup. He started the All-Star Game that year and won a Silver Slugger, putting up a .295/.389/.506 line (140 wRC+), 19 home runs, and 82 RBI while getting down-ballot MVP votes.
At the end of the day, I like how Atlanta has one exceptional defender in Murphy and one exceptional hitter in Baldwin. I do think Drake’s defense has improved over the last two seasons, while Murphy’s been unable to stay healthy enough to get hot at the plate, but overall the dynamic works for the Braves and gives them a designated hitter option on days when Murphy’s behind the plate.
If I had to pick just one, this is where I’m making the tradeoff and sacrificing offense for defense, since the average catcher’s not that great of a hitter anyway.
But the frustratingly honest answer to your question might be that while we can measure the offensive difference, the total defensive difference might actually be larger. Public metrics just can’t yet quantify the game calling and pitcher management aspects of it, yet, and that’s one area where traditional scouting will likely still reign supreme for a while.
Do the guys actually want to win, or are they really just there for the paycheck? Is commitment to winning one of the “clubhouse culture” factors AA talks about so much? If we as fans are living and dying on every pitch, can we expect that of the players as well?
Dave
Story time.
My first spring training as credentialed media was Chris Sale’s first season with the team, 2024. I remember standing just outside the clubhouse after his third start of spring, one in which he had a smooth first inning and then gave up some dumb hits and three runs in the second frame.
The small huddle is me, Justin Toscano of the AJC, and a producer for MLB Network waiting to get Sale mic’d up for a hit. Just the three of us. That’s how attendance goes sometimes when it’s the third week of spring training, y’know?
Anyway, I asked Sale if in spring training and coming off of the injuries he’s had in recent seasons, for a start like that, he's more focused on how the ball’s coming out and what he feels like afterward, or if he's trying to get strikeouts and get out of the outing without any runs.
I was asking about process vs results, essentially, and what matters most to him.
Sale looks into my eyes, completely deadpan, and says: “When I step on a baseball field, it’s competition. You want to do well and you want to compete. I don’t think anybody’s ever all right with not doing good or not performing well.”
Now, he was busting my balls a bit here; he did crack a smile and start to seriously answer the question I was trying to ask (over Justin’s friendly laughter, for the record), but the point was made: they’ve worked too hard and sacrificed too much to make the majors to not take it seriously and not want to win every time they step on the field.
There certainly are players that have a more…complicated relationship with the sport. Anthony Rendon famously told my friend Jack Vita that the season was too long and that baseball ranked farther down his priority list than a lot of guys might admit. But even that’s a different line of thought from saying he didn’t care about performing.
At the same time, I think they’re also wired differently than us. Baseball’s a game that’s built on failure - if you’re able to consistently get a hit 4 times out of 10, you’re gonna be a Hall of Famer - and so they’re better able to regulate their emotions, flush a bad performance, and move on from the game’s result than we are. But yes, I think they care just as much as we do, maybe even more, although they might not always outwardly show it or express it in a way that’s satisfying to us.
My question is mainly about why the insistence on considering Fuentes and Kerr as possible starters, when this World Series just proved the absolute requirement for a shutdown bullpen. Both Kerr and Fuentes were great in 2026, along with Iglesias, Suárez, and Suter as the long reliever.
The pitching, even with its shortcomings, was not the main reason the team did not win more games and go further in the postseason. That was reserved for the inconsistent and missing offense. Yes, the Braves need two new starters minimum, but their glaring need to actually hit the ball and move runners is the number one priority.
The way both teams in the 2026 World Series got there was not home runs alone, as the Braves have so dearly depended on for the last several years—for example, Chipper’s interview in 2024 about the Braves’ hitting philosophy. With that said, I think Walt did a very good job in his first year, but my opinion is that Pat Murphy will most likely win Manager of the Year, and my reasoning is his “just win today” approach.
Final point: the bullpen has been great, the most complete part of the team. Don’t rob from there to fix the lack of starting pitching.
Ray
For the record, while I wrote up both guys and what they need to do to work out as starters in 2027, I don’t seriously expect Kerr to be in the rotation next season. His workload this season was just too small to build enough of a foundation to make it through 162 games plus the postseason.
But to answer your question, it’s because more often than not, the value of even an average #3 starter is, individually, greater than that of all but the best relievers in the game. And perhaps that’s a flaw of using WAR to evaluate relievers when we really should be looking at Win Probability Added (which the Dodgers do when making their bullpen additions), but I agree that the Braves need to make sure the bullpen’s reinforced and protected against another Suarez injury. With Raisel Iglesias a free agent, having someone who could close if Suarez is out for some time is crucial, and Fuentes could do that.
But part of this is supply and demand, right? It’s easier (and cheaper) to find a setup man in free agency than it is to find a #3 starter, as we’ve demonstrated over the last few years when we’ve signed a setup man but not any #3 starters.
IF Fuentes remains the setup man and Atlanta pays Tyler Mahle roughly $16M for 2027, they have addressed both roles. But if Fuentes can be an equivalent #3 starter, the Braves could spend $8-9 million for an Evan Phillips or Jason Adam or even A.J. Minter and come out ahead on the money.
And that ignores the other option of using pitching prospects in relief, which wasn’t really a common thing for Atlanta until this season.
(You’re welcome for that, by the way - I directly asked Anthopoulos about that heading into the 2025 winter meetings, and he told me that it’s something he’s personally a fan of, but it never seemed to work with their bullpen construction. Lo and behold, they stick Fuentes back there the very next season and use both J.R. Ritchie and Owen Murphy in the pen at times.)
I agree with you that Fuentes does great work back there and should probably be used in the same role next season, for Walt Weiss’ peace of mind. But they can always shorten him up if they either need him back there or he’s not working out in the rotation, and him successfully making that conversion would allow them to spend more money on the offensive additions.
Ronald Acuña Jr., Owen Murphy, and Conor Essenburg for Gunnar Henderson and Ryan Helsley. Thoughts?
Doc
This was in response to my podcast episode discussing the Baltimore Banner’s report that Baltimore is willing to listen on nearly everyone, including Gunnar Henderson, in the trade market this winter. Doesn’t mean they’re looking to move Gunnar, necessarily, and the article even clarifies that they’d need to be blown away by the offer, but they’ll have the conversation.
They’d likely be blown away by Doc’s offer.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is under the same constraint that Henderson is - signed for only two more seasons, with Baltimore unlikely to be able to re-sign him when he hits free agency - but it’d be replacing an injury-prone MVP candidate at shortstop with an injury-prone former MVP in right field. When you pair that with one of Atlanta’s top pitching prospects in Owen Murphy and a sneaky potential power bat in Conor Essenburg? Baltimore would probably accept this offer. Atlanta shouldn’t make it.
I don’t think Atlanta needs to move Acuña in a trade. First is that while he’s been injury-prone, he’s also been pretty good when he’s been on the field. In his partial 2025 season, where he played only 95 games after returning from his knee injury, he was pretty good - .290/.417/.518 with 21 homers and 9 stolen bases, a full-season pace of 36/15. At his salary of $17 million, less than Anthony Santander, Trent Grisham, and Ian Happ made last year, that’s a steal.
The second is that he wasn’t very good to end this season while working around two hamstring strains and some other minor issues, so you’d be ‘selling low’, as much as that’s possible for a former MVP who is owed only $34M combined over the next two seasons.
But the third reason is that all that does is exchange one lineup hole for another. Sure, it’s been hard to find a shortstop, but know what else is hard to find? An MVP-caliber leadoff hitter to fill your right field vacancy. If you were to trade Acuña tomorrow, the starting outfield would be Jurickson Profar, Michael Harris II, and Mike Yastrzemski. It doesn’t matter who is at shortstop, that’s not a better offense than what they have now with Ronald in there for however many games he stays healthy. The Henderson money in arbitration is projected to be roughly $14.1 million, per MLBTR’s calculations, and so you’d save about $3M while still needing to fill a big offensive hole by throwing money at a free agent. Sure, there are technically more options in the outfield than at shortstop, but there’s also more teams looking for outfielders than shortstops in this class, too.
It just doesn’t help you build that much better of a team. Now, if you can re-do the deal to not include Acuña (and maybe bring back a reliever that’s not Ryan Helsley, like Felix Bautista), then I’m all for it.
I also wonder about how much value “marketing” plays in roster decisions. I’m sure the Braves each year build a marketing plan around two or three superstar players to sell things like jerseys and bring kids and non-traditional fans out. If Acuña, Riley, and Ozzie are fading, is there a world where you still keep a fading star largely for marketing and name-recognition purposes beyond their on-field production value?
Yonnie
This may be a small part of the reason Ozzie’s still here - he’s the longest-tenured member of the team, cheap, and well-liked by fans. Fan sentiment does matter. Alex Anthopoulos frequently references needing to acknowledge Vaughn Grissom’s popularity to Chairman Terry McGuirk when he brought the Grissom-for-Sale trade to him for approval, telling him “it’s gonna get loud” when the fans see who was shipped out.
But at the same time, I don’t think they’re necessarily building entire Braves campaigns around specific players. Sure, they want to make sure they feature certain players in certain marketing materials, but Atlanta’s never really been that city that makes a massive outward push of one of their stars in pursuit of helping that guy get an award. I don’t think they’d keep an underperforming, fading star that long if he was terrible just in the hopes of selling a few more tickets.
Besides, they will still sell your merch even after you’re gone, even if most of the fans were happy to see you go.
Is a player’s salary paid throughout the twelve-month year, or is it paid from day one of the regular season to the end of the postseason? If it is the latter, then it seems to me the Braves could benefit from a lockout-shortened season, with Profar’s $15 million being reduced by the percentage of scheduled games that are canceled.
Bruce
This is a good one, because a lot of folks don’t know how it works. I confirmed much of this with a recently retired player, just to make sure nothing’s changed recently.
First is that it’s important to know that players don’t get paid per game, they get paid per day of the regular season they’re on the roster. A normal season is 162 games over 187 days, and their salary is accrued 1/187th at a time. If they’re on the injured list, that counts and they get paid for that day, but if they’re suspended (hello, Profar), they’re not accruing service time and therefore don’t get paid.
Most teams pay by direct deposit semi-monthly (1st and 15th) across the duration of the regular season, as specified by the CBA. Not every league is like this - the NFL allows players to specify how they want to be paid in their contracts, and you can do everything from a paper check to a wire transfer to being paid in bitcoin.
Yes, they have a 401(k), and it’s deducted from their paycheck just like it is for you and me (as well as various things they pay for like clubhouse dues or meals). They get a W-2 at the end of the year, but they also get hit with a ton of what are called “jock taxes” from every state in which they play a game. They also get a per diem while on the road, usually $120 a day (historically given out in cash, but it varies per team).
But you’re right in that the lockout does change things. In 2020, with a shortened 60-game season, player compensation was adjusted to strictly prorated salaries based on the number of games actually played. Players received 37.04% of their original salaries, so Profar’s $15 million owed in 2027 would have been $5.556 million in 2020.
(And yes, it was a contentious negotiation there, too - the owners wanted to implement some complicated sliding scales for proration, whereas the players just wanted the proration to be based on the number of games in the season.)
We don’t know exactly what the pay will look like if they don’t play a full 162 games in 2027; that’ll have to get negotiated between the parties.
We’re over 3200 words already, so let’s do some rapid fire.
Over or under 100 innings for Didier Fuentes in 2027? - Doc
As long as he stays healthy, give me the over. Remember, when you combine the postseason and his time in Gwinnett, he threw 97 innings in 2026. I’m one of the outliers in that I’m more worried about his stamina in games than I am about him potentially being able to throw 140-150 innings this season.
Who will lead the Braves in saves next year?
Robert Suarez. Again, health is the caveat here, but give me 35.
The Braves bring back Dubón, Iglesias, Mahle, Suter, and Lane Thomas, and sign one free agent of your choosing. Who is it?
So you have a flexible utility guy that can play shortstop, a backend reliever, a starter, a long reliever, and a rotational outfielder. If I’m not moving on from anyone currently on the roster (like trading Mike Yastrzemski to make room for an outfielder), give me Sonny Gray. Sale/Gray/Mahle/Fuentes is a pretty good 1-4, and it means that you don’t need to bank on Schwellenbach making it back quickly or Strider’s elbow or ReyLo’s shoulder.
I would find it interesting to learn how you got started working in baseball. What all have you accomplished? What inspired you to do this—especially your fire for pitching analytics? I believe you said you are a CPA or something like that; forgive me for getting that wrong. I enjoy learning about people with shared interests.
Fun fact: I have all the credits from my MBA that I would need to sit for the CPA exam, but I never did it, mainly because all my friends who are CPAs just seem miserable for half the year. I’m currently a portfolio manager for a fintech out of San Francisco, working in the world of franchise lending, but I’ve previously been a commercial lender and an SBA portfolio manager before this fully remote role.
As far as how I got started: I’ve always been a fan of the game, and I enjoy understanding how things work. I could never hack it as a lefty pitcher, even though I had a decent curveball, and so I ended up finding ways to learn more about the game on my own, in a way that made sense to me. Most of the analytics stuff is self-taught, although I’m in the middle of working on my analytics certifications from both SABR and Rapsodo.
To boil it all down: I’m a baseball nerd who is comfortable with numbers and likes explaining things to people.
What are you drinking most of the time? I sometimes see you with a glass on the podcast, but not often.
I’m guessing this is supposed to be an alcohol-related question, but let’s hit it all.
I’m a big coffee guy, so between two and three cups a day. The pot has two left for me after I make my wife’s to-go mug, so if I’m having a third cup, it’s either some homemade cold brew or I’m using my home espresso machine to make a flat white.
I also drink a Diet Cokes or two a day, so a lot of caffeine over here. Probably too much?
As far as alcohol’s concerned, I’m celiac, so beer’s not much of a thing anymore, which is a bummer. Used to love Leinenkugel’s Summer Shandy and some good Hefeweizens. Now it’s either some sort of bourbon, either neat or in a cocktail, or it’s a tiki drink.
For bourbon, my everyday sipper is Weller Special Reserve (the green bottle; I’m not made of money), with the Weller 12-year for special occasions. I also keep some Wild Turkey 101 on hand for mixed drinks for guests.
For tiki drinks, I’m a fan of the classics. My go-to is a Mai Tai (and inside Truist Park, they sell the Cutwater canned Mai Tais), although I also like a Painkiller as long as you go easy on the nutmeg. Will also never turn down a good Rum Punch. Sensing a theme on the pineapple-forward drinks here.
Enjoy your weekend, folks.