Braves Opening Day Roster Projection 4.0: Our final look at the options

The Braves have made some surprising moves in the last week, swerving when we all thought they were barrelling ahead.

The Braves leave North Port on Sunday afternoon for Arizona - given that they’re starting the season in San Diego against the Padres next Thursday, the team is heading out west early and concluding the spring slate with two matchups in Arizona against the Chicago Cubs on Monday and Tuesday.

Given the earlier-than-usual departure from North Port, decisions will likely be conveyed this coming weekend as to who is making the official roster, who is on the travel roster, and who will be either be starting the season in Gwinnett or heading to free agency (if they have an opt-out and plan to exercise it).

Let’s put in one final prediction heading into the weekend.

(Here are the previous projections from throughout the offseason: 1.0, 2.0, 3.0)

The position player group is set…and has been

Zero surprises here, so I’ll make this brief.

Starters:
C: Drake Baldwin
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Ozzie Albies
SS: Orlando Arcia
3B: Austin Riley
LF: Jurickson Profar
CF: Michael Harris II
RF: Jarred Kelenic
DH: Marcell Ozuna

Bench:
C: Chadwick Tromp
INF: Nick Allen
OF: Bryan De La Cruz (platoon in RF with Kelenic)
Util: Eli White

Injured list to start the season:
Sean Murphy, Ronald Acuña Jr.

Both Profar (wrist) and Riley (hand) gave us scares in spring but avoided serious injury; they’ll be full go with no restrictions on Opening Day. Murphy was given a four-to-six-week timeframe from the date of the injury (Feb 28th) so he’s likely back sometime in April. Ronald’s timeframe, as I’ve been discussing since early February, has always been early May.

The pitching staff is where things get interesting

Rotation:
Chris Sale
Spencer Schwellenbach
Reynaldo López
Grant Holmes
AJ Smith-Shawver
Injured list to start the season: Spencer Strider

Bullpen:
CL: Raisel Iglesias
Setup: Pierce Johnson (R)
Setup: Dylan Lee (L)
Fireman/GB specialist: Aaron Bummer (L)
Middle relief w/ potential: Daysbel Hernández
Veteran reliever that can fill in at closer: Héctor Neris
Third lefty: EMPTY
Young NRI: Enyel De Los Santos
6th starter/Longman: Ian Anderson

The first change to our rotation projections is officially in - we had the same five ever since the team announced that Holmes was moving to a starting role over the winter, but there’s a sixth starter now making the team in our projection based on recent performance.

AJ Smith-Shawver’s inclusion in the rotation and Ian Anderson bumping to the bullpen are things we need to talk about. The youngster Smith-Shawver was electric on Sunday versus the Twins, allowing just two runs in four innings while striking out eight (with no walks). It feels increasingly likely that he’s finally had that offseason breakthrough, and while there may be occasional rough patches, he’s going to pitch well enough that it’ll likely be hard to send him back to Gwinnett.¹

At the same time, Anderson walked five against the Red Sox “B” squad on Monday, putting him at 18 walks against eight strikeouts in just 17 spring innings. It just feels increasingly unlikely that they’re going to trust Ian long-term in the rotation - if he had options he’d absolutely be in Gwinnett to start the season, but that’s not doable as he wouldn’t pass through waivers. The only remaining choices for Atlanta here are to either stick him in the 6th starter/long-man spot in the pen or trade him.

When it comes to the bullpen, Neris made his spring debut over the weekend, pitching a scoreless inning against the Twins on Sunday. No strikeouts (but no walks) and seven strikes in nine pitches. Between that and his work on the backfields, it shows that he’s ready enough to make the OD roster.

(Update: after submission but before publication, the Braves reportedly signed veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel to a minor league deal. He’ll start the season in Gwinnett, so no change is estimated to the Opening Day projection based on the signing.)

We saw Angel Perdomo traded to the Angels for cash considerations or a PTBNL on Monday night; I honestly expected that to be Anderson moving, although I’d hope the return would be a bit better than a PTBNL. With that move, I’ve tentatively slotted roster Daysbel Hernandez back onto the roster projection, although it’s possible that they decide to Rule 5 pick Anderson Pilar, sign someone like David Robertson or that someone sent to minor league camp already is brought back and added to the roster.

My biggest question is about those guys that were sent to camp on Sunday morning - catcher Curt Casali (since released), lefty Jake Diekman, righty Buck Farmer, and outfielder Jake Marisnick - and then catcher Sandy León on Monday. How many of them can be retained into the season and start off in Gwinnett? Because those are all positions where having another high-quality depth option would be beneficial.

Casali’s already gone, replaced by the signing of James McCann to a minor league deal. Presumably, León will be joining him in a repeat of last season’s “emergency depth/veteran mentor” role. What about the bullpen options? Having the ability to call up Diekman, Farmer, and even Dylan Covey would be useful if bullpen arms go down to injury or unexpectedly struggle in 2025.

1. That will prompt an interesting conversation of who goes back to the bullpen after the sixth starter is no longer needed - Atlanta has off days both before and after the home opening series against the Marlins, so they will be able to at least temporarily go back to a five-man rotation if they want to. They’ll then need to make another rotation move when Strider comes back, but that’s something to figure out in April.