Yeah for me, Beck is a safer option but a ceiling of around a 4th or 5th OF on a competitive team. Extremely valuable, worth the pick 100/100 times, but for me, I value ceiling over floor. That will burn you more than the opposite, but I just personally value the impact you do find over the lost value in chasing it. I do think Beck can be a quick riser and contribute, just to what capacity, that is what I question.
You think his ceiling is that low? He’s got a good hit tool good speed good raw power. The arm is lackluster and the globe could use reps but you don’t think his ceiling is even a starter?
Taylor's the one that did these and so he can address Beck specifically on more detail, but I do understand that this is structured more on upside than it is likelihood of making the majors or floor
A lot of the conversation from when they took him was he was a high floor option to add into the Major League roster in a few years, so I don't really know how highly he'd rank on an upside-focused look at the system.
I get that but I feel like with his background (multi sport cold weather), small school, and incredible batted ball metrics and athleticism there’s some legitimate upside here. At least more than 31
Great article and rankings! I have added them to my consensus rankings--and I look forward to seeing future updates.
I think you're too low on Beck, especially if you're prioritizing upside. I think his upside is higher than Gracia's. I know one win doesn't make a model, but the same models that like Baldwin's Missouri Valley Confrence production also like Beck's. If his batted ball profile is legit, if it holds up against better competition, he's got all-star upside.
105.8 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity
87.8% in-zone contact
Good swing decisions
Exceptional athletic testing ("arguably the best athlete among college position players in the draft" - BA)
Per Shah: Some of the best power in the class, no-doubt CF
Oh I absolutely could be! If I updated today he'd already get pushed up after just his two games I've seen him play. I just do question the true All-Star level impact he has, despite the great underlyings we have all seen since he was drafted.
In my EOS update he will most likely be making a large jump for me, I just want to see it first from a profile like that. He's played very well, despite being tad aggressive with the bat. But not enough to really make me worry at the moment. I'm just playing it safe with someone I kept going back and forth on where I couldn't find a true stance to have.
I really like your calls on Carey, Martinez and Essenburg. Way to get the Essenburg flag plant in before the 3x HR game! I see the good version of Adam Duvall as a reasonable ceiling for him.
This is so good. When I got to the 40's I was like, "I know he has Burkhalter her somewhere!" Having Grand Pa so low. Well it won't last long for him. He is my sleeper ever since he took so long to sign. Thank you so much for doing this. We all know 4 to 8 of these guys may be gone in 6 days so this is a nice 'fare thee well' in so many ways. The system is so so much better now. Wow, really. Great great work.
Great summary of Atlanta's current prospects. Will keep a copy for future reference.
Good work.
They kept the bonuses low and still found at least a half dozen real prospects in the DSL.
I really enjoy these rankings. I will say that I kept scrolling and expected to see Carter Beck. Little bummed he’s not even top 30.
Yeah for me, Beck is a safer option but a ceiling of around a 4th or 5th OF on a competitive team. Extremely valuable, worth the pick 100/100 times, but for me, I value ceiling over floor. That will burn you more than the opposite, but I just personally value the impact you do find over the lost value in chasing it. I do think Beck can be a quick riser and contribute, just to what capacity, that is what I question.
You think his ceiling is that low? He’s got a good hit tool good speed good raw power. The arm is lackluster and the globe could use reps but you don’t think his ceiling is even a starter?
I struggle to call him an everyday, impactful OF but hey, doesn't mean he can't be! I just see others with higher ceilings as we sit here today.
That’s fair. Sadly we won’t know anything for at least a year. Can’t really judge a guy off two months. *cough tate southisene cough*
Taylor's the one that did these and so he can address Beck specifically on more detail, but I do understand that this is structured more on upside than it is likelihood of making the majors or floor
A lot of the conversation from when they took him was he was a high floor option to add into the Major League roster in a few years, so I don't really know how highly he'd rank on an upside-focused look at the system.
I get that but I feel like with his background (multi sport cold weather), small school, and incredible batted ball metrics and athleticism there’s some legitimate upside here. At least more than 31
Great article and rankings! I have added them to my consensus rankings--and I look forward to seeing future updates.
I think you're too low on Beck, especially if you're prioritizing upside. I think his upside is higher than Gracia's. I know one win doesn't make a model, but the same models that like Baldwin's Missouri Valley Confrence production also like Beck's. If his batted ball profile is legit, if it holds up against better competition, he's got all-star upside.
105.8 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity
87.8% in-zone contact
Good swing decisions
Exceptional athletic testing ("arguably the best athlete among college position players in the draft" - BA)
Per Shah: Some of the best power in the class, no-doubt CF
Oh I absolutely could be! If I updated today he'd already get pushed up after just his two games I've seen him play. I just do question the true All-Star level impact he has, despite the great underlyings we have all seen since he was drafted.
In my EOS update he will most likely be making a large jump for me, I just want to see it first from a profile like that. He's played very well, despite being tad aggressive with the bat. But not enough to really make me worry at the moment. I'm just playing it safe with someone I kept going back and forth on where I couldn't find a true stance to have.
I really like your calls on Carey, Martinez and Essenburg. Way to get the Essenburg flag plant in before the 3x HR game! I see the good version of Adam Duvall as a reasonable ceiling for him.
This is so good. When I got to the 40's I was like, "I know he has Burkhalter her somewhere!" Having Grand Pa so low. Well it won't last long for him. He is my sleeper ever since he took so long to sign. Thank you so much for doing this. We all know 4 to 8 of these guys may be gone in 6 days so this is a nice 'fare thee well' in so many ways. The system is so so much better now. Wow, really. Great great work.
Amazing work! Love the depth of the analysis and solid logic. You have me really excited about the future.