Dylan Lee has what it takes to be a closer for the Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves need a closer, but they might have a lefty in the pen that could do the job
It’s fair to say that the bullpen, one of the major issues facing the team entering the season, has reached ‘panic’ status.
Closer Raisel Iglesias, who had a 1.95 ERA and tied for fifth in baseball with 34 saves, is currently holding a career-worst 6.48 ERA after blowing four saves this season and taking five losses. After the most recent collapse, where Iglesias allowed three runs on four hits and a walk in Arizona’s six-run comeback last Thursday, manager Brian Snitker proclaimed that the Braves did not have a set closer and would play the matchups.
After curveball specialist Pierce Johnson blew two saves over the weekend in San Francisco, Atlanta used Dylan Lee in a non-save situation in Monday’s 9th inning.
I want them to keep giving Lee those high-leverage opportunities. Let’s talk about it.
It’s league-leading stuff
Entering Tuesday’s game, Dylan Lee’s ERA sits at just 2.17 across 29 innings. He struck out exactly 29 against just eight strikeouts, although he’s given up five homers already.
And part of the reason for his success comes from surprisingly dominant stuff.
Lee doesn’t sport the most amazing fastball, sitting 93.7 mph on his four-seam fastball. It’s good velo from the left side - the average for southpaws across MLB is 93.2 mph - but the key to everything he does is his slider.
The breaking pitch has a 98th percentile +8 Run Value against, establishing it as a top 25 pitch in baseball by raw Run Value and a top five slider by RV/100, which helps normalize the workload between starters and relievers by adjusting the score for value per 100 pitches thrown.
While Lee uses his slider more than the pitchers above him on the RV/100 chart, it’s to help mitigate for the “ordinary” velocity on the heater.
And what’s surprising is that the slider doesn’t have outlier movement - in fact, it’s below-average on both drop (-4.5 inches IVB below average) and horizontal movement (-3.5 below average). I think it comes down to his locations.
Entering Tuesday’s game, here’s the heatmap (pitcher view) of his slider locations:
Lee’s very good at establishing the slider in the zone early in the count for strikes and then taking it out of the zone for whiffs once hitters key on it.
He uses it a lot, too. Lee goes to the slider as his primary offering in almost every count and situation - the only times so far this year he’s thrown more fastballs than sliders have been 2-1 and 3-2, while he’s at virtually equal usage of the two in 3-0 counts.
And deservedly so. The slider’s allowing a minuscule .086 average against this season and a .241 slug, although the expected are slightly worse: .147 average and .294 slug. Hitters have whiffed on the pitch a whopping 42.4% of the time, with one of every four at-bats against Lee ending on a slider.
Can he deliver in high leverage?
He has so far, albeit with limited opportunities.
Pulling full career splits for Lee from Baseball Reference, here are some of the most common leverage situations and how he has performed since coming up:
2 outs, RISP: .197 batting average, .366 slug w/ 33.8% strikeout rate
Tie Game: .203 batting average, .311 slug w/ 33.7% strikeout rate
Late & Close: .257 batting average, .421 slug w/ 28.4% strikeout rate
In Baseball Reference’s different leverage situations, it assigns Lee these stats:
High: .213 average, .467 slug
Med: .215 average, .362 slug
Low: .226 average, .342 slug
It’s worth a try, right?
Does Atlanta acquire someone else?
I average three to four radio hits a week, talking Braves with different radio shows around Alabama and Georgia.
The guys down at WNSP in Mobile asked me a question on Tuesday that I hadn’t gotten yet this season until now:
If you were general manager of the Atlanta Braves, what would you do to fix the team?
And my answer was simple: acquire a high-leverage reliever.
The argument I gave them was this: the issues plaguing this team seem to be more mental (with a little “MLB neutered the balls again” sprinkled in). What did Atlanta do in 2021 when the team’s morale was down after the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr?
They acquired Joc Pederson, went on a run, decided to buy at the deadline, and ended up winning the World Series after being one of the best teams in baseball post-deadline (36-18).
If Dylan Lee stepped up as closer, combined with a high-leverage flamethrower (preferably a righty) acquired via trade, that could be the morale boost the pen needs to stabilize the backend and solidify games where the starters and the offense give them a lead.
And while a lefty closer isn’t that common - the Braves haven’t had one since Will Smith in 2021 - there’s no reason it can’t work, provided he’s paired with a righty for specific tough matchups.
At this point, what do the Braves have to lose?
Good analysis and agree on Lee. But I disagree with your assessment of what would address this team’s isssues. What’s needed at this point is a new promotion: A bobble head covering the 5 stages of grief. We need to get through Denial, Anger, Bargaining and Depression to Acceptance. And there’s a lot to accept! The team PECOTA projected 3 months ago as having the second best roster in MLB is on its way to a 95 loss season, fourth place and 20+ games out of first. Our peer NL teams are the Rockies, Pirates and Marlins. And the Braves’ payroll is twice as high as 2 of those teams. (Oh the pain!)
Once we all get to Acceptance, we can stop blaming AA, Snit, the 3B or hitting coach, injuries, a thin bullpen, lack of SP depth, light hitting SS, bad luck, et.al. And we’ll see the problem clearly: a core group of players, who have longterm contracts and are dramaticallly underperforming. And we’ll realize the expectation should be more of the same for 2026 unless drastic changes are made. The front office needs to approach the trade deadline and the off-season as a rebuild. (Oh, woe-is-me!)
A rebuild will be painful, but take it from a Braves fan since 1967, losing 102 games doesn’t feel a lot worse than losing 95, especially when preseason expectations are properly aligned. But what is Acceptance? the Braves best player, Doyle Alexander, at the trade deadline in 1987 on the way to a 92 loss 4th place finish. Cox showed a lot of courage in making that move and fans weren’t happy. But, Bobby’s courage paid off - the Tigers sent the Braves HOFer John Smoltz. The best hope is that the front office reaches Acceptance by the 2025 trade deadline.