How Has Austin Riley's Contract Extension Held Up?

With Austin Riley's year now wrapped up, how has the biggest contract in franchise history fared so far?

Third baseman Austin Riley has been a staple in the Atlanta Braves lineup since his highly anticipated call-up in May of 2019. Having almost immediate success, including homering in his first big league game, the Braves decided he was their third baseman of the future.

In August of 2022, the Atlanta Braves’ patented “blue box” press release dropped, letting everyone know that Austin Riley and the Braves were in agreement on a 10-year, $212M dollar deal, a $21.2M AAV. The total dollar figure represents the largest contract in the Braves franchise history.

With Riley’s season now done due to an abdominal injury resulting in season-ending surgery, let’s take a look at 1. Austin Riley’s 2025 season and 2. How the contract has fared so far, three years in.

The First Two

2023: Fresh off the big contract and a 2022 All-Star season, Austin Riley did not slow down. Hitting .281 with 37 homers, 97 RBI, and a 130 OPS+ was enough to earn the third baseman another All-Star nod, a Silver Slugger, and MVP votes as he finished seventh in voting. This was good for a 6.0 WAR, his third straight season with the feat.

2024: This is where things start to get sketchy. After a down year by his own lofty standards, the big blow came on August 18th in a game vs. the Los Angeles Angels. A 97 mph fastball to the wrist effectively ended his season, playoffs included.

He finished with a .256/.322/.461 slash line with 19 homers and 56 RBI, completing only 110 games, the lowest since his debut season and the shortened 2020 COVID season.

2025 Season

The 2025 season for Austin Riley was one that he was very much looking forward to. Coming off the aforementioned season-ending injury, Riley was primed for a big year. Unfortunately, it did not go as anticipated.

On July 11th, the third baseman was put on the 10-day IL with a lower abdominal strain. The injury did not seem to be serious, and by July 25th, Riley was off the Injured List and ready to help the Braves for the second half of the season.

These hopes did not last long. After missing just eight games due to the previous IL stint (thanks to the All-Star break), Riley found himself back on the IL not even two weeks later with the same injury: Lower abdominal strain…xcept this one seemed to be worse. And it was.

What looked like another 10-day IL stint turned into a season-ending surgery. On August 21st, it was announced that Riley had surgery on his core muscle, which some call a sports hernia. The surgery was successful, but it ended what some thought was expected to be a season where the former All-Star returned to form.

Riley finished with just a .260/.309/.428 slash line. Add on just 16 homers (a career low excluding 2020) and 54 RBI. Good for a 104 OPS+, the lowest since his debut season. However, it is worth mentioning that broken wrists do take a little while to fully recover from (we’re seeing this with Ozzie right now). So, while Riley’s numbers may seem down this year, keep this in mind.

So once again, we hope and pray that Austin Riley, Braves All-Star, Silver Slugger World Series Champion, and biggest contract holder in franchise history, can return to form in 2026.

How does this contract compare?

So now that we have evaluated the performance, let’s see how it stacks up amongst similar third basemen, contracts included.

In terms of AAV, Austin Riley has the sixth-highest contract behind Anthony Rendon ($35M), Nolan Arenado ($32.5M), Manny Machado ($31.8M), Rafael Devers ($31.35M), and Matt Chapman ($25.16M). He sits right in front of Guardians star Jose Ramirez ($20.14M). Also not included in this list is Alex Bregman, who has a $40M AAV, but was signed as a second baseman who is playing third after the Rafael Devers trade.

(Ed: The AAV of Alex Bregman’s deal after deferrals has been calculated at 31.7M by the MLBPA.)

We can all agree that the Rendon deal is horrific, and the Machado/Arenado deals are a good bit higher than the Riley deal. So let’s take a look at the contract that is just higher than Riley’s and just smaller. That would be Matt Chapman and Jose Ramirez.

Chapman: After posting a 7+ WAR season in 2024, the Giants offered their stellar third baseman an extension. On September 4, 2024, Chapman signed a six-year, $151M dollar deal. So here is the first year (so far) and how he has fared.

After a seven-WAR season, Chapman absolutely earned that deal but many questioned the length of it. The six-year deal meant that he would be thirty-eight when the deal expired. However, this year hasn’t been as successful as the season before; his .234/.345/.447 line across 120 games with 20 HR’s and 54 RBI. It’s good for a 3.9 WAR, a solid season but not nearly as good as last year.

Ramirez: I personally think this may be one of the best long-term deals in the sport. Ramirez signed this pact in April of 2022 for 7 years and 141 million. Since then, he hasn’t posted an OPS under .830 and has been an All-Star in every season. He is well on his way to another thirty-thirty season and is highly regarded as the most underrated player in baseball.

Ramirez is the closest player contractually to Riley, but is actually the top performer in terms of WAR over the last three seasons. Last year, J-Ram had a .279/.335/.537 slash line with 39 HR’s and 118 RBI. He also added 41 SBs to the line, finishing just one homer one off of a 40/40 season. Not only are the power numbers off the charts, but he has also not struck out more than 82 times since signing his contract.

Conclusion

While these are just two guys we’ve looked at (closest contractually in terms of AAV), there are obviously other deals out there that are good and bad. In terms of Riley, I genuinely still think he is worth every penny. While the health is a scare, and it should be, the production from Riley is still there. While it’s not a guaranteed 30/30 season for $20M, like J-Ram, it is also not an Anthony Rendon deal.

The deal allowed (and still does) Alex Anthopolous to go lock down other stars for cheap and to explore the FA market. He knows he has a solid defender, a solid bat, and a great clubhouse guy for $21M dollars a year. Riley’s contract, in terms of everyone else in his wheelhouse, is right in line with their production, if not better.

With a healthy 2026 season, Riley could very quickly change the narrative to “this guy is a steal!”