Luke Sinnard's Fall Stars Nod is the Capstone On a Resurgent Season

In his first season back from elbow surgery, Sinnard showed that he deserves to be considered among the team's top prospects

(Excited to run a third freelance piece from my friend Michael McDermott, who runs the excellent D-backs Under Review. As an Arizona resident, he’s been a constant presence at Arizona Fall League games and attended the Fall Stars game on Sunday night to talk to some Braves players for us.)

MESA – Right-hander Luke Sinnard was one of three players representing the Atlanta Braves at the AFL’s Fall Stars Game. While Sinnard did not pitch in the game, it still marked a strong finish to his first full professional season in 2025.

Atlanta selected the 6’8” right-hander out of Indiana with their third-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. After blowing out his arm in June 2023, he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Sinnard successfully returned to the mound in 2025, making 16 starts with Low-A Augusta and High-A Rome in his pro debut. He pitched to a 2.86 ERA with 72 strikeouts and 27 walks over 72.1 innings.

“It’s great to be back on the field,” said Sinnard. “It’s what I’ve been working towards for the past two years. It’s very much a blessing to be able to play a full year.”

Being a 6’8” pitcher, there come unique advantages and challenges for Sinnard. With the advancements in player development, especially in biomechanics, organizations have improved at converting this difficult body type into successful starters.

“My advantage, I would say, from being 6’8” is just where the ball’s coming out. It’s not a normal slot that a hitter sees every day. And one of the challenges, I mean, 6’8” body, big body, it’s hard to control sometimes. So keeping my body under control on the mound and not getting too, I don’t know how to explain it, too lanky, I guess.”

The list is very short for successful starters at 6’8” or taller. There are currently three starters in Major League Baseball at that height: Tyler Glasnow (6’8”), Eury Perez (6’8”), and Bailey Ober (6’9”). While Glasnow and Perez have dealt with injury problems in recent years, Ober has been a reliable workhorse in the middle of the Twins’ rotation. That should give the Braves more optimism that they can develop a pitcher with Sinnard’s size and delivery into a reliable starting pitcher down the road.

It’s not uncommon for a pitcher to come back with more velocity after the Tommy John rehab process. The same principle held for Sinnard, who’s sitting 93-97 MPH on his four-seam fastball in the Arizona Fall League. In all five of his starts, it’s averaged more than 95 MPH. In his most recent outing, he was up to 96.0.

The combination of the velocity, spin rate (2500+ RPM), and above-average carry (17-18” induced vertical break) projects his four-seamer as a plus offering. It gives him a solid foundation and establishes a deep arsenal of pitches. In addition to his four-seamer, Sinnard throws a sinker, short slider (signals as a cutter), curveball, and a splitter.

From his most recent start, November 7th against the Scottsdale Scorpions, these are his velocity, spin rates, and pitch shapes. The pitch classification falsely identifies his curveball as a “slider” and his gyro slider as a “cutter”.

• 4-Seam Fastball: 96.0 MPH, 17” iVB, 9” arm-side, 2662 RPM

• Sinker: 94.8 MPH, 14” iVB, 14” arm-side, 2550 RPM

• Curveball: 82.7 MPH, -14” iVB, 4” glove-side, 2430 RPM

• Slider: 88.6 MPH, 2” iVB, 2” glove-side, 2804 RPM

• Splitter: 83.6 MPH, 2” iVB, 6” arm-side, 731 RPM

With a solid all-around arsenal, which should allow him to change speeds and angles on hitters, he projects as a future rotation piece for the Braves. FanGraphs prospects evaluator Eric Longenhagen projects him to be a potential Top 100 prospect and a No. 4 starter. Longenhagen also noted in that same chat that Sinnard’s spin rates were up 200-300 RPM compared to the regular season. Ultimately, there may be more upside to unlock if he continues to improve his fastball command.

To cap off his 2025 season, the Braves sent him to the Arizona Fall League after missing six weeks in the regular season due to a stress reaction in his pitching elbow. In Arizona, Sinnard has pitched to a 4.60 ERA with 20 strikeouts and six walks in 15.2 innings. With the sample size of the Fall League, it’s more noteworthy that he’s throwing the ball very well.

As a result of the strong work, Sinnard was named to the Fall Stars Game on Thursday.

“Again, another blessing for a comeback after two years. It’s just hard work paying off.”

Joining Sinnard at the Fall Stars Game were infielder Nacho Alvarez Jr. and outfielder Pat Clohisy. Alvarez was named to the initial squad while Clohisy made it through the fan vote.

“They are some of my best friends right now out here. We push each other every day.”

Between the regular season and the Arizona Fall League, Sinnard has compiled nearly 90 innings. That is a solid workload for a pitcher in his first full year of pro ball, especially coming off Tommy John. He believes the work done over the past season will help build confidence going into next season.

“I think all the work I’m going to put in this offseason and this past season will give me a ton of confidence going into 2026.”

For the 2026 season, expect him to start the year with Rome, then a midseason promotion to Columbus. If he continues to progress well, then finishing the season in Gwinnett certainly isn’t out of the question. JR Ritchie, arguably the Braves’ top pitching prospect right now, developed on a similar track in 2025.

Staying healthy should be the key goal for next season, continuing to build toward a major league starter workload. The target will be around 25 starts and 125-130 innings for 2026, which would be about a 40-inning jump compared to 2025.

On the most optimistic timeline, Sinnard is looking at a late-season 2027 debut for Atlanta. Over the next two seasons, the Braves should closely evaluate what all the pitching prospects at the top of the system. By the time Sinnard is ready for a big league opportunity, they should already have a strong idea of what Didier Fuentes, Drue Hackenburg, Blake Burkhalter, Rolddy Muñoz, and Ritchie could bring to their pitching staff.