One Crown, Four Down: Introducing "Sole Survivor Day"
The Braves have already had three days this season where they won and every other NL East team lost. That's not nothing.
We talk a lot about wins and losses here, and the underlying numbers that drive them. But sometimes a fun concept comes along that also happens to hint at something real.
Let’s talk about the idea of a Sole Survivor Day.
What is a “Sole Survivor Day”?
Premium subscriber John Saunders made a comment in the Braves Today discord on Friday night, pointing out that it was the second day this season where Atlanta won and the other four teams in the division lost.
That got me thinking: How often does that happen?
It’s not incredibly common - a handful of times each season per team, but almost never reaching double digits for anyone.
With the help of a Python script (to scrape MLB’s API for game logs from 2021 through 2026) and a spreadsheet, we now have that information.
Saturday was the third time this season that the NL East has had a Sole Survivor Day, and all three of them were by the Atlanta Braves:
4/15: Braves beat Marlins 6-3, Phillies lose 11-2 to Cubs, Mets lose 8-2 to Dodgers, Nationals lose 2-0 to Pirates
4/17: Braves beat Phillies 9-0, Mets lose 12-4 to Cubs, Nationals lose 10-5 to Giants, Marlins lose 7-5 to Brewers
4/18: Braves beat Phillies 3-1, Mets lose 4-2 to Cubs, Nationals lose 7-6 to Giants, Marlins lose 5-2 to Brewers
Sure, it’s fun to be the only team that wins on a given day. But does it mean anything?
What can we learn from Sole Survivor Days?
Individually, I don’t think we can learn much from any given SSD, other than the fact that the division’s likely playing each other. All three of this season’s SSDs so far have seen one NL East team beat another.
But on the whole, there is a weak correlation between SSDs and full-season outcomes.
Going into Sunday’s action, the Braves have the most Sole Survivor Days in the last five years, totaling 26. That’s even more remarkable when you consider that they didn’t log a single one last year, only the second time it’s happened in a full season in the five-plus season sample. Here are the totals for each of the last five seasons, plus the interim 2026 standings:
2021 was a season where the division winner had the fewest wins of any year of the sample, with Atlanta finishing just 88-74 (but then winning the World Series, so no complaints here). 2022 saw the Braves put up the exact same number of SSDs, five, despite their win total rising from 88 to 101. The Mets led in SSDs that season but didn’t take the division crown, because they’re apparently not allowed to have nice things. The generational 2023 Braves offense only had five SSDs, since two other teams won 90 (Philles) and 84 (Mets) games. 2024 was the biggest overperformance in SSDs I’ve seen since Washington’s five-SSD mark in 2021, with Atlanta barely squeezing into the postseason on the final day of the season but having the second-highest SSD total in the entire sample. 2025 was the New York and Philly show, with three teams with losing records meaning there weren’t many opportunities to be the last team standing on any given day.
The macro trend that stands out is how being the team with the most SSDs doesn’t necessarily mean you were the best team in the division - Washington tied for the divisional lead with five in 2021 despite going 65-97 and finishing in last place.
But usually, the more SSDs you have, the better you do in the full-season standings. The Braves and Mets tied at 101 wins in 2022, with Atlanta taking the East via tiebreaker, and they had the most and second-most SSDs that season. In 2023, the Braves won the division and led in SSDs, while Philly had the most in 2024 and won the East that year. 2025 was a tie between Philly and the Mets, with Philadelphia winning the division and New York narrowly missing out on the postseason via tiebreaker.
Worth saying out loud: Correlation does not equal causation.
Are they winning the division because they have the most SSDs, or do they happen to rack up the SSDs because they’re winning a lot of games?
Without both more seasons and more divisions in the dataset, it’s impossible to know for sure but I’m leaning towards this being a very fun, but mostly inconsequential coincidence.
Doesn’t mean it’s not entertaining, though. We liked the concept enough that we’re making it a recurring feature. Discord member Trogdor even created a graphic for it:
We can still have fun with this, though
The high mark in our five-season sample for SSDs in a full season is ten, from the 2024 Phillies. That was a 95-win roster, although also one that was upset by the rival Mets in the NLDS.
The 2026 Atlanta Braves are on pace for 23 Sole Survivor Days.
After a 2025 season where they couldn't buy a win when it mattered, that number feels like more than a quirky stat. It feels like a team that's back to doing what it does: showing up, winning, and watching everyone else lose. Three Sole Survivor Days in the first three weeks of the season. The crown hasn't moved.
Here’s a link to the spreadsheet, if you’re curious to check it out. I still need to finish building the live filters so that I can update daily throughout the season, but it’s a great starting point.
Lindsay, I gotta say, I did NOT have seeing my name in the first paragraph of Sole Survivor Day on my bingo card! Thank you, Sir! The deep dive that followed was a great read!
Go Braves!
Thank you for the great deep dive.. it's hard to believe that Bryce elder although it's very early is second in ERA of 0.52. The other thing I saw was it almost to the run the Braves have scored double of the runs that they have given up. 122-65. There isn't anybody close with that kind of ratio. There are so many stats and you know all this I just was mystified the difference between like the Phillies and the Mets. Sale is third and wins with four, Tyler has 3. I know you know all these but it's just interesting because you are the best diving deep and it gets me more interested in the game in our stats. Of course most of these will level out. It's early I know but the Mets with the second highest payroll in baseball is eight games behind us. It's not sustainable what the Braves are doing but just the fact that they're starting off like this with a lot of our starters out still defies logic. But it's baseball anything could happen as you say. It's funny how stats normally tell it all , most of the time lol. But the Mets have only given up maybe 20 more runs than they scored. And the Phillies have given up almost double of what they scored. Go figure. Normally I don't post like this but I just want to say thank you because you're the one that got me started in all this lol. Have a good one Lindsay