Projecting Atlanta's Opening Day Roster, Version 2.0

Now that we have two weeks of spring training games to evaluate, let's update our projection to reflect actual performance on the field

Now that the Atlanta Braves have shown to be one of the best teams in Grapefruit League action, sitting at 8-2-1, let’s update our roster projections to reflect who actually is (and is not) performing in spring training so far.

Also, it’s a convenient way to provide some discussion content on an off day.

From when we released version 1.5 of the Opening Day roster projection to now, the Braves have seen two frontline starters go down for elbow procedures and have sent several players to minor league camp.

Let’s update where we stand on the roster projection on the first off day of spring training.

(Bold denotes a player on the 40-man roster, Italics denotes a change from the previous projection)

Catchers (2)

In: Drake Baldwin, Jonah Heim
Injured: Sean Murphy
Others in camp: Sandy León, Jair Camargo
Reassigned to minor league camp: Chadwick Tromp (WBC, Netherlands)

No real changes here. Despite Heim struggling in camp (1-12, 3 Ks), he’s making guaranteed money and has shown his value both as a mentor and on the defensive side. I don’t see any changes here.

Infielders (6)

In: 1B Matt Olson, 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Mauricio Dubón, 3B Austin Riley, UTIL Jorge Mateo, UTIL Kyle Farmer
Injured: Ha-Seong Kim
Others in camp: 1B/OF Dominic Smith, UTILs Tristin English, Aaron Schunk, Jim Jarvis, Luke Williams, Luke Waddell; SSs Alex Lodise & John Gil
Optioned/reassigned to minor league camp: 3B Nacho Alvarez Jr. (WBC, Mexico)

The change here is the final bench spot, which feels like it’s a battle between infielder Kyle Farmer and outfielder Ben Gamel. They’re the two hottest hitters among the bench candidates in spring, and I’m giving the nod to Farmer over Gamel simply because of the defensive versatility - Farmer’s played all over the infield as well as caught, and that’s more valuable than a sixth outfielder making the roster.

Outfielders (5)

In: LF/DH Jurickson Profar, CF Michael Harris II, RF Ronald Acuña Jr., OF Mike Yastrzemski, OF Eli White
Others in camp: Ben Gamel, Brewer Hicklen, DaShawn Keirsey Jr, Josè Azocar

The outfield still feels pretty set, barring either an injury or some sort of dominant performance in Grapefruit League play; the Braves rewarded Forrest Wall’s dominant 2024 spring training, .308/.400/.564 in 28 games, with an Opening Day roster spot.

If any of those other outfielders make the roster, it’d likely come at the expense of the 26th spot, but I don’t think it will.

Starting pitchers (6)

In: Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz
Injured: Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver
Others in camp: José Suarez, Didier Fuentes, Carlos Carrasco, Martin Pérez, Elieser Hernández, JR Ritchie, Owen Murphy, Garrett Baumann

I still have Bryce Elder as the 5th starter, but with 13 games in 13 days to open the season, the Braves have indicated they’re planning to use Joey Wentz as the 6th starter. That has repercussions on the final bullpen spot.

Relief pitchers (7)

In: Raisel Iglesias (CL), Robert Suarez (RH SU), Dylan Lee (LH SU), Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer (L), Joel Payamps, José Suarez (LH Longman)
Injured: Joe Jiménez, Danny Young
Others in camp: Ian Hamilton, Daysbel Hernández, Dylan Dodd (L), Hayden Harris, James Karinchak, Tayler Scott, Austin Pope
Reassigned/optioned to minor league camp: Hunter Stratton, Javy Guerra (WBC - Panama)

And here’s the repercussion of the schedule: With the team’s likely longman in Wentz becoming the 6th starter for the first two (?) rotation turns, it’s likely that the final bullpen spot gets converted from who is throwing the best to who can fill a needed role.

If the Braves are comfortable with Aaron Bummer being the longman to open the season, then they can reward James Karinchak’s resurgence with a medium-leverage role. But given that Bummer’s coming off of a shoulder issue and has struggled with any stint longer than two innings, it’s likely that Karinchak gets bumped for the out-of-options José Suarez.

As we’ve maintained through this entire series, this position feels like the one with the most variance and potential movement, however. On the whole, many bullpen pieces are largely fungible from season to season and there are so many “buy low” breakout candidates here that anyone can come out of spring looking like a potential relief ace in a small sample and force the team to keep them.

Is there any improvement to be had?

I don’t love the decision that may be forced on Atlanta for the final bullpen spot, but roster dynamics and roles play as big as a part of talent and performance in spring training.

If someone else emerges as a multi-inning arm, that gives the team runway to keep Karinchak. But as he’s not an Article XX(B) free agent, he likely doesn’t have an opt-out from his minor league deal and can be stashed in Gwinnett, unlike Suarez. That kind of thing matters in spring training.