Projecting Atlanta's Opening Day Roster, Version 3.0

Now that we're just a few weeks from Opening Day, let's update our projections to reflect the roster moves and performances from the first half of spring training.

Not that spring training records matter, but the Atlanta Braves have the second-best winning percentage in Grapefruit League play and third-best in all of baseball at .706. Let’s update our roster projections to reflect who actually is (and is not) performing in spring training so far, as well as who is remaining in camp after the recent roster moves.

From when we released version 2.0 of the Opening Day roster projection to now, the Braves have lost Jurickson Profar to a 2nd suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, this one for a full season, as well as Joey Wentz to a season-ending knee injury, so there are a lot of moving parts.

Let’s update our roster projection with just two weeks of games remaining.

(Bold denotes a player on the 40-man roster, Italics denotes a change from the previous projection)

Catchers (2)

In: Drake Baldwin, Jonah Heim
Injured: Sean Murphy
Others in camp: Sandy León, Jair Camargo
Reassigned to minor league camp: Chadwick Tromp

No real changes here. Despite Heim continuing to struggle in camp (3-18, 3 Ks), he’s making guaranteed money and has shown his value both as a mentor and on the defensive side. I don’t see any changes here.

Infielders (7)

In: 1B Matt Olson, 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Mauricio Dubón, 3B Austin Riley, INF/OF Jorge Mateo, 1B/OF Dominic Smith, UTIL Kyle Farmer
Injured: Ha-Seong Kim
Others in camp: UTILs Aaron Schunk, Luke Williams, Luke Waddell, Tristin English, Brett Wisely; SS John Gil
Optioned/reassigned to minor league camp: 3B Nacho Alvarez Jr. (WBC, Mexico), SS Alex Lodise, SS Jim Jarvis

As of right now, we’ve got both Smith and Farmer making the Opening Day roster by virtue of the need to replace Jurickson Profar. Smith’s likely role would be the primary designated hitter against righties, while Farmer could step into the lineup against lefties and has the added versatility of allowing any of the infielders to take a ‘half-day’ at DH thanks to his more than acceptable infield defense.

Outfielders (4)

In: CF Michael Harris II, RF Ronald Acuña Jr., OF Mike Yastrzemski, OF Eli White
Others in camp: Ben Gamel, Brewer Hicklen, DaShawn Keirsey Jr, Josè Azocar
Suspended: LF Jurickson Profar

The outfield still feels pretty set, barring either an injury or some sort of dominant performance in Grapefruit League play; the Braves rewarded Forrest Wall’s dominant 2024 spring training, .308/.400/.564 in 28 games, with an Opening Day roster spot.

If any of those other outfielders make the roster, it’d likely come at the expense of the 26th spot, but I don’t think it will. White has good enough batted ball metrics against lefties, albeit on a small sample, to be the first platoon option with Yastrzemski in place of Profar.

Starting pitchers (5)

In: Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder
Injured: Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver, Joey Wentz
Others in camp: José Suarez, Didier Fuentes, JR Ritchie
Reassigned to minor league camp: Owen Murphy, Garrett Baumann, Carlos Carrasco, Elieser Hernández

Joey Wentz’s unfortunate ACL injury, one that will keep him out for the entirety of 2026, has shaken this roster up more than we expected at the midpoint of spring training. While I viewed him as more of a 6th starter, let’s bump this back to a standard five-man rotation and give that additional roster spot back to the bullpen for now.

Relief pitchers (8)

In: Raisel Iglesias (CL), Robert Suarez (RH SU), Dylan Lee (LH SU), Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer (L), Joel Payamps, José Suarez (LH Longman), Martín Perez
Injured: Joe Jiménez, Danny Young
Others in camp: Ian Hamilton, Daysbel Hernández, Dylan Dodd (L), Tayler Scott, Austin Pope
Reassigned/optioned to minor league camp: Hunter Stratton, Javy Guerra (WBC - Panama), Hayden Harris, James Karinchak

First, some news: Ian Hamilton had a minor medical issue earlier in camp. He’s back to throwing, but is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day and may end up catching a short injured list stint to open the season.

Unfortunately, that roster spot isn’t going to James Karinchak, as the righty was reassigned to minor league camp earlier this week. Despite his exceptional performance in spring (4IP, 1H, 2BB, 9Ks), he’s going to be a victim of the schedule and will likely start the season in the minors. I don’t think he’ll be there long, however. One of Suarez and veteran Martin Perez, who now makes the jump to the active roster after the loss of Joey Wentz, will start at least once during the opening stretch of 13 games in 13 days. Karinchak will be one of the top candidates to replace whoever is jettisoned soon after. My gut says Suarez might not be long for the roster, as they’ve already tried to pass him through waivers once and so likely view him as the most ‘disposable’.

Is there any improvement to be had?

I don’t love the idea of starting Karinchak in the minors to start the season, but roster dynamics and roles play as big a part as talent and performance in spring training. Any more injuries or some veteran opt-outs from other rosters could change things in the final week of spring, as well.