Should the Braves Play It Safe at No. 9?

Derek Curiel may be one of the safest hitters in the draft. The harder question is whether that's what Atlanta should be looking for at No. 9.

When you think about making a draft pick in the top ten, the focus naturally comes to upside.

This is where franchises are supposed to swing for future superstars. The players selected here are expected to become faces of organizations, perennial All-Stars, and the kind of talent that changes the trajectory of a franchise.

But the Braves aren’t a typical team, one that’s picking ninth because they’re rebuilding.

They’re picking ninth because of massive, unprecedented injuries that swayed one single season’s final win-loss record.

That changes the conversation.

When ETSU Director of Analytics Jackson Scudder joined the Braves Today podcast to discuss this year’s draft, one player kept coming up: LSU outfielder Derek Curiel.

Not because Scudder believes Curiel has the highest ceiling in the class.

Because he believes he’s one of the safest bets to become a productive major leaguer.

Let’s talk about it.

Why Derek Curiel is different

Curiel just finished his second season at SEC powerhouse LSU. Despite a rare down season for the Tigers, Curiel was better than ever, hitting .353/.431/.526 with thirteen stolen bases while holding down centerfield in a Rawlings Gold Glove-winning sophomore season.

He didn’t hit for a lot of power, with just 13 home runs across his two collegiate seasons, and he’s projected to potentially max out as a 20-homer guy in the pros. What Curiel’s lacking in power production, however, he makes up for in contact ability.

Scudder characterized it as “very good” bat-to-ball skills for Curiel, with Baseball America one-upping Scudder by calling them “excellent” when listing him at #10 on their MLB Draft Big Board. That contact ability comes with good strike zone awareness, with Curiel’s .431 on-base being a top-25 mark in the Southeastern Conference.

The total package is one that is bound for the major leagues, with Scudder declaring “Curiel’s going to be a big league player for sure.”

And that’s notable - even though the first round has fewer busts than the rest of the draft, even top-ten picks are not guaranteed to reach the league and if they do, making an impact is not certain.

It’s certainly a high floor. Curiel already possesses the hardest traits to develop: swing decisions, contact ability, and feel for hitting. The power could still come later, through focused development work.

Going safe at pick #9, in taking a player that’s as close to a lock on making the league as you’ll see in the modern draft, is a perfectly defensible strategy. Especially for a team that believes it already has its core in place.

But another choice, one that would be more about ceiling than floor, would be Drew Burress.

Out of local Georgia Tech, the diminutive (5-9) centerfielder hit 60 home runs in his three collegiate seasons, driving in 189 and setting Tech’s career homer record in just three seasons.¹

Burress has impressive raw power despite the frame, combining a pull-heavy offensive approach with legitimate bat speed and a large leg kick to generate power. His ceiling, given the power ability, is legitimately higher than Curiel’s.

But his floor is lower, too.

Burress’ busy hitting mechanics and need to overtorque to generate power through a longer bat path can leave him susceptible to secondary offerings down, and how his game will translate to wood bats is the biggest unknown facing the Warner Robbins native.

Burress didn’t come close to answering these questions in summer ball, either, getting just 78 PAs in the wood-bat Cape Cod League after his freshman season and hitting .125/.282/.219.

Burress has the power upside over Curiel, while Curiel’s floor is more stable thanks to his contact ability.

But despite the obvious contrasts in style and possible outcomes, this isn’t just a “ceiling versus floor” conversation at pick #9.

The Braves aren’t a normal Top-10 team

Most organizations drafting inside the top 10 are rebuilding. Those clubs often need to chase stars because they simply don’t have enough talent.

The Braves are different, because they already have a competitive core. They aren’t searching for players who can simply reach the majors. They’re searching for the next wave of stars that keeps that window open.

And if there’s one at a long-time position of need for the Braves, one that projects to get worse if Ronald Acuña Jr. and the Braves can’t work out an extension over the next two seasons, it makes a lot of sense to grab a player there.

Do they need to play it safe by taking Curiel? Knowing that they have Michael Harris II signed for somewhere between four & six more years, and then pairing the steady hand of Curiel with an explosive talent like Eric Hartman or Isaiah Drake would give the Braves another wave of outfield stars to build around.

Or is ‘playing it safe’ underscoring Curiel’s potential? And is Atlanta the place to properly develop that potential?

The Braves have a type, and it’s not Curiel

The Braves have historically been a pitching-heavy organization in the draft…until last year. Atlanta took three up-the-middle talents to open last year’s draft and five in their first six picks.

Curiel represents something Atlanta hasn’t typically prioritized in recent drafts, as the Braves have generally bet on athleticism and projection.

Whether that’s multi-sport athletes like AJ Smith-Shawver, two-way players like Cam Caminiti, or prospects with significant developmental runway, Atlanta has repeatedly trusted its player development staff to unlock tools that aren’t fully formed.

Curiel is almost the opposite.

Much of what makes him appealing today is already present. He’s polished. He’s disciplined. He already looks like a professional hitter.

That’s a compliment.

Curiel is exactly the kind of player many organizations should draft.

I’m just not convinced Atlanta is one of them. That’s not because I doubt the player.

It’s because I value the opportunity differently.

Floor over ceiling?

Jackson Scudder made a compelling case for Derek Curiel, and I wouldn’t blame the Braves for making that pick.

But opportunities like this don’t come around often.

If Atlanta believes another player offers a realistic chance to become a franchise cornerstone, this is the moment to take that swing. Sure, the Braves could absolutely miss. That’s the cost of betting on upside.

But teams that expect to draft in the 20s every year can’t afford to spend one of the rarest picks they’ll ever own thinking too safely.

1. The previous mark was 57, which former big leaguer Jason Varitek set over four seasons prior to being drafted 14th overall in the 1994 MLB Draft.