Thanks Wayne! I'd love to have a job working for a team, but for now I'm just an amateur pitching nerd who tries to break things down the best he can from his home office
Good article. The Braves should look for another closer for next year, but I can see bringing Iggy back for one more year in more of a set-up role, especially with Jimenez' highly questionable status. Iggy has proven he can still pitch in high-leverage moments.
To assume that players who have been deemed 'recovered' from injury/surgery will pick up right where they left off can be naive (think Soroka, Matzek, Strider, Acuna's first ACL repair). Who knows what Jimenez and Lopez will be like next year? Sadly, Strider has been very average for most of his starts this season, unable to command his slightly slower fast ball. It still confounds me that the Braves lost two high-leverage relievers (Minter, Jimenez) last January and made no apparent effort to replace them with proven arms (oh, that's right, McGuirk prioritized spending on real estate). One or two proven arms may not have averted the disaster of this season but we might have avoided the almost comical revolving door of relievers being dragged in off the scrap heap.
Yeah, I hope that Atlanta signs multiple starters instead of throwing money at the pen, but I feel like AA might perform to type and sign a big money reliever to a multi-year deal. He likes to pay for bullpen arms, and it's hard to argue that it isn't the right move given how this year shook out.
Honest question (I did hear the postcast you two both spoke about this) a buy low extension for Ozuna where he plays 3 days a week--would you do it for 8-10? Also would you buy low on Iggy with a 2 for 22 with an option year for year 3 at 9? How impressive do you think Waldrep will be when he has like a whole 9 months to master a pitch. As a player who seemed to fall in the draft and then not necessarily do 'really good' when he got the the mlb. How impressed are you with his ability to keep going up hill? It seemed everyone was saying he was destined for the pen and now he seems like his upside is above many of the Braves pitching prospects suddenly. What do you see as his ceiling after seeing him up close for these two tiny sample games? Do you think the Braves will contuie to strech out Lara back to being a starter, or is this just lets build him up for regular 2 inning stints if possible? Do you think Harris will debut this year? A win streak is fun. .
I'm not opposed to bringing back Ozuna, but you have to keep him out of the everyday DH spot and I don't know if the new manager (whoever it is) will do that.
I see Waldrep's ceiling as a #3 - not the potential ace that we thought he was, and he'll be prone to blowups now and then, but a mid-3s ERA guy (league average right now for qualified starters is 4.13) who you don't hate throwing in game three of a postseason series.
Lara, I don't know what the plan is there. Stretching him out potentially gets you more value - I like to think that they shortened him so that they could use him down the stretch in the Atlanta bullpen and now that he's both had his workload cut and they're out of it, I'm assuming they're getting him stretched back out for evaluation purposes.
You are the ONLY PERSON I'm aware of doing this kind of analysis.
Are you another Keith Law, a former baseball employee or a scout ?
I'm happy for the players showing improvement. But durn, I wanted to be in that Draft Lottery.
Really glad I found you this season.
Your friend,
Wayne Nichols
Thanks Wayne! I'd love to have a job working for a team, but for now I'm just an amateur pitching nerd who tries to break things down the best he can from his home office
Good article. The Braves should look for another closer for next year, but I can see bringing Iggy back for one more year in more of a set-up role, especially with Jimenez' highly questionable status. Iggy has proven he can still pitch in high-leverage moments.
Yeah, having a bullpen of Dodd or Harris/Bummer/Kinley/Johnson/Lee/Jimenez/Iglesias/López could feed families, if everything works out well
To assume that players who have been deemed 'recovered' from injury/surgery will pick up right where they left off can be naive (think Soroka, Matzek, Strider, Acuna's first ACL repair). Who knows what Jimenez and Lopez will be like next year? Sadly, Strider has been very average for most of his starts this season, unable to command his slightly slower fast ball. It still confounds me that the Braves lost two high-leverage relievers (Minter, Jimenez) last January and made no apparent effort to replace them with proven arms (oh, that's right, McGuirk prioritized spending on real estate). One or two proven arms may not have averted the disaster of this season but we might have avoided the almost comical revolving door of relievers being dragged in off the scrap heap.
Yeah, I hope that Atlanta signs multiple starters instead of throwing money at the pen, but I feel like AA might perform to type and sign a big money reliever to a multi-year deal. He likes to pay for bullpen arms, and it's hard to argue that it isn't the right move given how this year shook out.
Honest question (I did hear the postcast you two both spoke about this) a buy low extension for Ozuna where he plays 3 days a week--would you do it for 8-10? Also would you buy low on Iggy with a 2 for 22 with an option year for year 3 at 9? How impressive do you think Waldrep will be when he has like a whole 9 months to master a pitch. As a player who seemed to fall in the draft and then not necessarily do 'really good' when he got the the mlb. How impressed are you with his ability to keep going up hill? It seemed everyone was saying he was destined for the pen and now he seems like his upside is above many of the Braves pitching prospects suddenly. What do you see as his ceiling after seeing him up close for these two tiny sample games? Do you think the Braves will contuie to strech out Lara back to being a starter, or is this just lets build him up for regular 2 inning stints if possible? Do you think Harris will debut this year? A win streak is fun. .
I'm not opposed to bringing back Ozuna, but you have to keep him out of the everyday DH spot and I don't know if the new manager (whoever it is) will do that.
I see Waldrep's ceiling as a #3 - not the potential ace that we thought he was, and he'll be prone to blowups now and then, but a mid-3s ERA guy (league average right now for qualified starters is 4.13) who you don't hate throwing in game three of a postseason series.
Lara, I don't know what the plan is there. Stretching him out potentially gets you more value - I like to think that they shortened him so that they could use him down the stretch in the Atlanta bullpen and now that he's both had his workload cut and they're out of it, I'm assuming they're getting him stretched back out for evaluation purposes.
UPDATE: Tomorrow's newsletter is on the pros and cons of adding Ozuna, for both the player and the team. Great question!