The Atlanta Braves are right to not activate Spencer Strider this weekend
Spencer Strider, out for several weeks with a hamstring strain, won't be returning until some time next week at the earliest
All he wants to do is get back on the field and contribute to the season.
Star pitcher Spencer Strider, out since early last season after elbow surgery, made just one start this year before going back on the injured list, this with a hamstring strain. And when he initially spoke about the injury, the frustration was evident in his voice.
“It sucks. I just feel like I’m taking up space again. I will do everything humanly possible to get back out there as soon as I can.”
‘Everything humanly possible’ includes a simulated game in Truist Park this week, the team announced on Monday. And that’s the right decision.
Let’s talk about it.
He CAN come back this week
Unlike a lot of common injuries suffered by pitchers, this one was a soft-tissue injury to the lower body, meaning that Strider could technically continue throwing as he received treatment on the hamstring.
And he did.
With the help of a workload monitor, he adjusted things to continue throwing during the rehab process - starting from his knees, then moving to standing catch, long toss, flatgrounds, and then finally back on a mound.
He threw two bullpens last week and proclaimed himself ready, saying “I feel good to go” but admitting that it was the team’s decision, not his. “I’ve made my availability known, and beyond that it’s up to them.”
But looking at the starting pitching trends recently, Atlanta feels that letting Strider work his way back into a start next week is the right move to make.
The rest of the rotation is pitching well
Strider went to the injured list on April 22nd, forcing the Braves to throw a bullpen game on short notice. Since then, they’ve gotten seventeen starts from the rotation and while the results haven’t been perfect, they’ve been more than acceptable.
AJ Smith-Shawver: three starts, 1.42 ERA
Bryce Elder: four starts, 3.52 ERA
Chris Sale: four starts, 1.85 ERA
Grant Holmes: three starts, 6.35 ERA (These stats do not count Monday’s start)
Spencer Schwellenbach: three starts, 5.74 ERA (but a 3.69 FIP)
Safe to say, every starter is either outperforming expectations or has the track record to keep us from worrying too much about the small sample size results. Chris Sale’s been fantastic of late, while Schwellenbach’s struggled…but we also have very little long-term concern over the converted shortstop’s ability to figure it out after his dynamic 2024 season. AJ Smith-Shawver has checked every possible box after returning from Gwinnett, while Bryce Elder has easily beaten the (admittedly) low expectations placed on him after starting the season with a 7.20 ERA after his first three starts. While Grant Holmes’ line is rough, he’s also through three scoreless innings against the Nationals as I’m putting the final touches on this newsletter.
But the criterion to evaluate the need to activate Strider isn’t just the performance of the starters, it’s the bullpen and how they’re handling this schedule.
A long stretch without an off day
Atlanta’s almost finished with a stretch of seventeen games in seventeen days, and it’s taxed the bullpen.
With Atlanta’s last off day coming May 1st and with three extra innings games (and a bullpen game) in that stretch, the pen has been pushed. Braves’ relievers have pitched well, bucking many of our expectations from spring training. But they’ve also worked a LOT, pitching over 35 innings entering Monday’s series opener versus Washington.
And that’s where the Strider activation could potentially hurt, from both a depth and a workload perspective.
To add Strider to the roster and go with a six-man rotation, Atlanta would need to get rid of a reliever and go with a seven-man bullpen. Rafael Montero’s the obvious odd man out - he’s one of the two in this stretch with an ERA over 2.45 at 6.00, while the other is Raisel Iglesias with a 6.23. Dropping a reliever, especially one that can take more than one inning, is a risk during this stretch without an off day.
And that concern could be exacerbated if Strider can’t handle a standard workload in his return. His first start, coming in a loss to the Blue Jays on the road, was only five innings. That was mostly due to inefficiency on Strider’s part; he threw 97 pitches (58 strikes) and faced 21 batters before being lifted after a home run and a walk to open the 6th.
If that happens on Friday in Boston, the most logical date to activate Strider, it would come on day fifteen of this seventeen-day stretch without an off day, overworking the Braves’ pen heading into their final weekend before an off day.
He’s on track to be activated next week
Instead, Atlanta’s going to have Strider throw a simulated game on Wednesday prior to that night’s game against the Nationals. Slated for seventy-five pitches in a controlled environment, if he comes out of it okay, he’d be lined up to start early next week on the road in Washington.
I personally hate that a team will face an opponent at home one week and then on the road less than two weeks later. Spread these games out! If one of the stated reasons for the ‘home and home’ format is to allow fans to see all of MLB’s stars every season, playing the same team for two series within the span on one injured list stint means that you still might not see some specific star even though your team played that opponent twice.
And while he feels like he’d be fine to make a start if immediately activated for this weekend’s road trip, Strider seems to understand the team’s reluctance to throw him back into the fire. “I feel good about my chances to give us a chance to win if I’m out there […] Admittedly, I haven’t pitched in three weeks so I won’t be shocked if they don’t feel comfortable running me out there.”
But there’s another ancillary benefit to slow-playing Strider’s return.
Can we eliminate any workload concerns here?
I spend a lot of time thinking about pitcher workloads. From what I’ve gathered from his public comments and off-the-record conversations at the Winter Meetings and other times where he’s accessible to the media, so does Alex Anthopoulos.
While Atlanta doesn’t believe in hard workload limits like the conventional wisdom of year-over-year increases being limited to 50 innings, there are a few trends that seem to persist across baseball.
One of them is reliever-to-starter conversions seemingly capping at 130 effective innings in their first season in the rotation. Lo and behold, Reynaldo López’s 2024 season ended at 135.2 thanks to two different injured list stints.
According to a study published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, most returners from UCL reconstruction surgery pitch on average 30-50 innings less than non-injured compatriots in their first year back. While Strider did not have a traditional UCL reconstruction, instead having a bone spur removed and an internal brace inserted, it’s also his second major elbow procedure of his career after needing Tommy John during his final year at Clemson.
If Strider returns in the back half of May and starts every six days from that point on, given off days and the All-Star Break, he’s looking at 18 or so starts between now and the end of the regular season. That 100-inning projection is well within the range of pitchers who make early-season returns from elbow surgery, allowing Atlanta to set Strider in the rotation and leave him there all season.
And to be frank, the rotation’s not the problem with this team right now anyway. Unless he’s going to be batting, too, it doesn’t matter if he returns to the rotation this week or next.