The Atlanta Braves have an outfield problem

They've had it for a while, but it's never been this bad

(Trying something new here - this week will be a glance at the outlook for the rest of the season, from the best to the worst-case scenarios. For instance, today’s about shoring up the outfield for a postseason push, while Friday might be a “what if” on an extreme tear-down and rebuild. Let me know your thoughts!)

Ronald Acuña Jr. has played in just eight games since returning from a second ACL tear, one that sidelined him for just a few days short of an entire year. Despite the small sample size, his three homers and the lone outfield assist he’s already compiled are enough for him to lead Atlanta’s outfield in fWAR at 0.7. Ineffectiveness and suspension have just decimated the position prior to Ronald’s return, but he’s also the only player performing at the moment.

What’s going on, and what do the Braves do to shore up the position? Let’s talk about it.

Centerfield is an obvious issue

Michael Harris II is progressing in reverse - after a dynamic debut campaign that earned him the Rookie of the Year award over teammate Spencer Strider, he’s currently mired in a career-worst…well, everything.

His line is just .234/.263/.338, a far cry from his combined .295 batting average and .494 slug across his first two seasons. He dropped from a 134 OPS+ in that stretch to just a 70+ this year, so he went from 30% better than the average hitter to 30% worse. He’s not actually whiffing an egregious amount - an above-average 22.1% - but he’s swinging out of the zone more than virtually every single qualified hitter in the entire sport.

His exceptional defense, which hasn’t slumped at all, has been the only thing him from cratering on the WAR leadeboards; his 0.3 fWAR mark is 15th on the team.

We’ve covered this practically ad nauseam at this point, but Harris is the poster child for what’s ailing the Braves offense - being stuck between two approaches and hitting for neither power nor average.

The one saving grace is that he continues to be pretty clutch - his 33 RBI are tied with Austin Riley for the team lead.

What is the problem in left?

With Acuña back and playing every day in right, Atlanta’s been rigidly platooning Eli White and Alex Verdugo in left field based solely on handedness.

SIDEBAR: For as strict as the Braves have been with platooning their outfielders by handedness, they haven’t thought the same of their relievers. The Braves organize the pen by innings, regardless of who is up to bat, versus doing it by the handedness of that cluster of the lineup. It’s very frustrating for a pitching nerd like me. We’re going to talk about this later this week, when we discuss the options with manager Brian Snitker.

The results are…mixed.

Since Ronald came back and the two have been platooning, they’ve combined for two hits (and seven strikeouts) in 27 at-bats. While Verdugo’s continuing to rarely whiff and rarely chase, he’s also not hitting the ball very hard and not providing much in the way of defense or baserunning. Eli White, by comparison, hasn’t had a hit since May 20th and committed a costly baserunning error.

The decision to platoon the two is weird and of itself, anyway. While Verdugo’s a lefty and is terrible against lefties (3-25 with five strikeouts), White hasn’t been much better (7-40 with 13 strikeouts). The two players are roughly equivalent against righties, as well, and so the decision to play Verdugo over White at all is a bit suspect. White at least gives you some defense and speed, while Verdugo has a big arm but is also allergic to hitting the cutoff man.

Does Profar fix things?

Jurickson Profar is eligible to be activated on June 29th.

The question is going to be: What type of player will he be?

Either way, it feels like the Braves are going to need to play him. I speculated in spring training that the best lineup with both Profar and Ronald would be Profar leading off ahead of Acuña, although that’s obviously not going to happen. Would you bat him second? Fifth? It’s an interesting thought exercise that probably can’t be answered until we figure out what kind of player he will be after returning from the PED suspension.

There’s also the question of the postseason. For the purposes of this early-week newsletter, we’re assuming the Braves would be making it to October as a Wild Card. If they do, Profar is ineligible to compete due to the suspension. How do the Braves balance playing him to qualify for the postseason with the need to play someone else enough to get them ready for the postseason? It’s an interesting dilemma that I hope we’re forced to answer in a few months.

Do the Braves need to address this position?

It feels like they will need to. The hope is that either Verdugo or White can be a starter for the postseason (again, working on the assumption that Profar gets them there in the first place), but that’s a fix for 2025, not the future.

With the designated hitter role potentially opening after this season, thanks to the pending free agency of Marcell Ozuna, the Braves would have the ability to rotate several players through the DH spot for a “half-day”. Profar, who is limited defensively due to poor foot speed, might be a candidate to spend some time without the glove and just focus on reaching base and letting someone drive them in.

(I’d also use Ozzie Albies there, as well, plus whichever of the catchers, Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, aren’t in the lineup that particular day.)

Obviously, the ideal scenario is finding that guy from within the organization. Maybe it’s Eli White, who does still have multiple years of team control after 2025. While I do think the Jarred Kelenic ship has sailed, there are definitely options in Gwinnett like Carlos Rodriguez.

I think grabbing someone from within is important simply because I’m worried the Braves won’t want to extend another free agent deal to lock in a fourth outfielder, both for playing time and because of how well the last position player signing (Profar) is going for Atlanta.

We’ll see what happens, but it’s possible a short-term acquisition at the deadline of an expiring deal - maybe a Lane Thomas or Austin Hays - gives the Braves a big corner bat that they can use in place of Verdugo once the postseason gets here and Profar’s no longer an option.

(Coming tomorrow - if the Braves wanted to acquire pitching, who might realistically be available via trade?)