The Braves Should Stop Waiting for the Offense To Fix Itself

Atlanta’s third $50 million offseason plan buys a right-handed threat and more on-base ability—even if it means accepting greater uncertainty in the rotation.

At the end of the day, the thing that ended Atlanta’s 2026 season was the offense.

Alex Anthopoulos was right in classifying the full season’s production as “good,” as they were 8th in runs for the regular season and 6th in slugging percentage. But as he pointed out, it wasn’t dependable, coming in 26th in runs from June 1st through the end of the regular season due to several slumps and overall malaise.

The Braves figured it out on the mound behind new pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, however, overcoming their multiple spring training injuries to finish with baseball’s fifth-best ERA at 3.63. But their fantastic pitching staff, which held Los Angeles to just 14 runs in four playoff games, couldn’t overcome an offense that scored only eight.

So, let’s invert the spending here. Rather than Ending A (signing one ace-level starter) or Ending B (adding multiple mid-rotation arms), what if Ending C was the Braves concentrating their offseason signings on fortifying the offense?

Let’s talk about it.

What’s the goal here?

I mean, “score more runs” sounds great and all, but how should they do that? Based on Anthopoulos admitting that the team struggles to get on base and some of the observed handedness issues this season with the lineup, there are a few criteria that feel like they should be checked off at the end of this exercise:

Add an everyday right-handed hitter (or a switch hitter):

With Austin Riley’s struggles last season, three of Atlanta’s top four hitters were all lefties in Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, and Matt Olson. Given that Ronald Acuña Jr’s default lineup spot is leadoff, that meant either dropping him down in the order or elevating a lesser bat to break up the three-lefty stretch.

(This was usually the switch-hitting Ozzie Albies, who had a .448 slug from the cleanup spot in his 184 plate appearances.)

And when I say “everyday”, I mean “he needs to be able to hit both lefties and righties.” Adding a righty or switch-hitter that can’t hit lefties doesn’t meaningfully balance the lineup.

Add at least one hitter projected for a .340 on-base percentage or double-digit walk rate:

Only two qualified Braves hitters had an OBP of .340 or better: Drake Baldwin (.358) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (.345). Looking at this by walk rate, Acuña (11.3%) led the regulars, followed by Ha-Seong Kim and Lane Thomas at 10.9% and Mike Yastrzemski at 10%. Kim and Thomas are both free agents this winter, while Yaz isn’t guaranteed everyday playing time despite his $10M salary for 2027.

Fill a real opening at shortstop or corner outfield:

Sure, the Braves don’t have a full-time designated hitter, but ostensibly they’re trying to cycle some of the veterans through the spot to give them a ‘half-day’ for loan management purposes. An offensive addition able to capably play either shortstop or left field would be immensely beneficial.

Preserve enough money for one credible starting pitcher:

The good news here is that, with very few exceptions, this isn’t a stellar free agent class of bats and so it’s possible the dollars go farther here than they would in a normal offseason. The pending lockout, which will shut down the sport at 11:59 PM on December 1st, could also create urgency for players who don’t want that uncertainty over the holidays.

Leave approximately $5M for bench and bullpen depth:

With Didier Fuentes being prepped for rotation work and Raisel Iglesias a free agent, supplementing the back-end of the bullpen with someone else capable of handling late innings behind Robert Suarez is crucial.

It’s a similar situation with the bench, with Jim Jarvis being the roster’s only shortstop at the moment after Mauricio Dubón became a free agent on Sunday.

Can one player solve both problems?

By my count, there are two players who can reasonably be plug-and-play solutions in the heart of the order, as well as three additional options that can potentially contribute at a high level.

Top of the market options

OF Seiya Suzuki

2027 Age: 32
Contract estimate: 4 yrs, $108M ($27M AAV)
Crowd median: 4 yrs, $96M ($24M AAV)
Qualifying offer: YES
2027 Projection: .256/.346/.447, 120 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
Feature: 84th percentile in both batting run value and fielding run value (just don’t ask about the baserunning) and a 91st-percentile 12.8% walk rate.

Interesting parallel here: he signed during the previous lockout, with MLB allowing the 45-day posting windows to pause while the sport was shut down (which they are not permitting to happen this time). In the five years since then, he’s never had a wRC+ lower than 118, and put up an absurd .421 on-base percentage against lefties this season.

But he’s not a perfect option. He’s already 32, so the aging curve-related decline will start at some point during the (likely) four-year deal. This was the first time he’s been a positive defender in right field (+7 FRV) this year, but he’s still -1 for his MLB career (and he’d likely move to left field for Atlanta, in deference to Ronald Acuña Jr.). He’s also a qualifying offer player, so assuming he rejects it (he will), the Braves would lose their 2nd- and 5th-highest picks in the 2027 MLB draft as well as $1M from the international bonus pool if they sign him.¹

And obviously, spending $24-27 million on a single player limits who the team might be able to add under our $50 million offseason framework.

OF Randy Arozarena

2027 Age: 32
Contract estimate: 3 yrs, $69M ($23M AAV)
Crowd median: 4 yrs, $96M ($24M AAV)
Qualifying offer: YES
2027 Projection: .252/.352/.431, 120 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
Feature: One of baseball’s best hitters last year, with the aura to match; 10.1% walk rate in 2026

The 2027 projection for Arozarena is practically identical to Suzuki’s, but at a lower salary. Steamer has him slightly regressing from this season’s .381 on base to ‘only’ a .352, which would still be the 2nd-best mark on this year’s Atlanta roster. He hit 26 homers and stole 26 bags this year, the sixth consecutive season he’s gone 20/20 or better.

But while there are more stolen bases than Suzuki here, there are also more questions. Arozarena already isn’t a good defender, being relegated to left field with a below-average arm and a career -32 FRV. His bat speed’s been in decline for a few seasons now, finally ending up in ‘below-average’ territory this season. The stolen bases are the only thing buoying his baserunning value, with several TOOTBLANs² frustrating coaches and fans alike.

Possible contributors

OF Taylor Ward

2027 Age: 33
Contract estimate: N/A, Ward is not on FanGraphs T50 free agents
Other predictions: 2 yrs, $35M ($17.5M AAV) per Spotrac; 1 yr, $12M per MLBTR
Qualifying offer: INELIGIBLE (was traded midseason)
2027 Projection: .233/.339/.393, 107 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR
Feature: Uh…the potential for power OR walks?

I genuinely don’t know what to make of Taylor Ward. His final season with the Angels in 2025 saw him hit 36 homers and drive in 103, both career highs, putting up a 119 wRC+ despite his low .228 average. His usual ability to walk stuck around, with his normal 9-10% walk rate reaching 11.3%.

But his platform year was…weird. Traded before the season to Baltimore and then moved at the deadline to Seattle, Ward hit just seven homers but pushed his walk rate to 16.3% while cutting his strikeout rate by 5%, to 21.4%.

What?

My first thought is that it reminds me of the start of Marcell Ozuna’s 2025, where he put up an absurd .426 OBP with 48 walks to only 52 strikeouts before June…but hit only 9 home runs.

Which version is the real Taylor Ward? Is it the potential 40-100 bat that could still run a walk rate over 10% and was worth 3.0+ fWAR? Or is it the sub-10-homer bat that drove in only 37 in 143 games and was worth just 1.0 fWAR with a 102 wRC+?

To top it off, he was atrocious on the base paths in 2026 (second percentile baserunning run value) and slightly below-average defensively in both corner outfield spots.

It’s possible that Taylor Ward could provide on-base and home run potential, but this is more of a contributory profile, not an impact addition.

OF Ian Happ

2027 Age: 32
Contract estimate: 2 yrs, $30M ($15M AAV)
Crowd median: 3 yrs, $60M ($20M AAV)
Qualifying offer: NO
2027 Projection: .230/.336/.406, 104 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
Feature: Good defender with offensive competency

As Ben Clemons at FanGraphs notes when placing Happ at #22 on his Top 50 free agents list, Happ’s a supporting player that’s been squeezed out of the big-money contracts in recent years. The defense is what allows Happ to stand out from the rest, having been nominated for five straight Gold Gloves and winning four in a row from 2022-2025.

He’s a switch-hitter who is projected for a 13.1% walk rate and a 104 wRC+. Sounds perfect, right? About that. His performance against lefties absolutely cratered this most recent season, putting up a 36 wRC+ while striking out over 35% of the time against southpaws.

Is that a blip, and is his 95 wRC+ from 2023-2025 what’s going to come back with a new team? Or have his drop in zone contact (-4%) while chasing more (+3.1%) and whiffing more (+5.7%) shown that the aging curve came early for Happ?

INF J.P. Crawford

2027 Age: 32
Contract estimate: 1 yr, $8M
Crowd median: 2 yrs, $24M ($12M AAV)
Qualifying offer: NO
2027 Projection: .244/.345/.383, 104 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR
Feature: Strong ability to draw a walk, fantastic clubhouse presence

Crawford is projected for a walk rate over 12% next season, but his declining defense (3rd percentile FRV of -10) means it’s hard to see him doing that as a shortstop in 2026.

His range was the real issue for Seattle this season (-13, 1st percentile), with Crawford proactively offering to move to third base to make a spot on the field for top prospect Colt Emerson. But both his speed and his arm strength are bottom-quartile marks as well, so Crawford’s more of a fit at second base than shortstop in Atlanta.

That said, the lefty put up a 104 wRC+ versus southpaws in the last three seasons with one of the league’s lowest chase rates, so he’d help the offense with diversity and patience at the plate. But where would he play? Do the Braves think they can fix his shortstop defense enough to make him passable at the position, or would he be looking at more of a timeshare between second base and designated hitter in Atlanta?

It’s easy to see how the Braves could pair the affordable Crawford with a right-handed corner bat, though. Arozarena/Suzuki/Ward could improve the lineup against lefties and provide the power, while Crawford could create traffic and (potentially) stabilize shortstop. That would also allow the two-player pairing to avoid the pressure of being asked to single-handedly change Atlanta’s entire offensive identity.

Three possible packages

Let’s look at some possible pairings, complete with money and performance, using these guys. We’ll incorporate a pitching addition from yesterday, too.

If adding one premium bat:

Seiya Suzuki + Mauricio Dubón, paired with Matthew Boyd. That’s about $44M in commitments, leaving $6M for minor bench and/or bullpen additions.

If going true offense-first:

Randy Arozarena + J.P. Crawford, paired with Foster Griffin. That’s about $45M in commitments, sacrificing some defense in both left and at short, but adding a lefty in the rotation with about $5M left.

Buying low on offense:

Taylor Ward + J.P. Crawford, paired with Sonny Gray. This is the path that avoids any qualifying offers, but requires both the bets on Ward and Crawford to pan out. It’s also a $45M grouping using MLBTR’s more modest estimate for Ward, with most of that going to Gray (~$25M), and the team having about $5M left for the bullpen and bench.

If it were my money and offense was the priority, I'd go with the Arozarena/Crawford/Griffin trio. It adds a legitimate right-handed middle-of-the-order bat in Arozarena, with the team being able to leverage the open DH spot as he ages (and as the team’s many outfield prospects begin to reach the majors). Plus, for those who feel that the Braves clubhouse feels a bit…stagnant, Arozarena’s electric personality is a differentiator, potentially similar to the impact of Joc Pederson in 2021. It also gives the team multiple .345-plus OBP options for the lineup, one of which can play shortstop (albeit a below-average one). It also adds a backend starter while preserving $5M to round out the bullpen and bench.

While Seiya Suzuki is the safest individual hitter, Randy’s lower (projected) AAV makes it possible to change two lineup spots instead of one.

The $15 million ghost in the room

Jurickson Profar is owed $15M and technically - theoretically - offers both switch-hitting and on-base ability. But after consecutive PED suspensions and only 80 games played across two years, Atlanta cannot treat him as the offensive solution to fix a struggling lineup.

Obviously, shedding his contract in a trade gives the team more flexibility to add pieces, but it’d be irresponsible to proceed as if that’s a given. If Atlanta can escape the $15M owed, great! That creates room in this scenario to upgrade from Foster Griffin to a better starter like Tyler Mahle or Michael Soroka, or maybe even add a high-octane reliever like Raisel Iglesias (re-signing) or Adrian Morejon. And if he returns and produces, that’s also great - it gives Atlanta another outfield option for depth.

But the possibility of both the clubhouse accepting Profar back in the fold and him immediately being able to produce at an above-average level again can’t be the thing that prevents Atlanta from building out a more resilient, diverse lineup this winter.

The closing argument

It practically writes itself, doesn’t it?

Choosing to focus on the offense requires entering the regular season with more pitching uncertainty than is ideal. Can Didier Fuentes build on this season’s 97-inning workload to make it through an entire 162-game schedule? (If they play a full 162-game schedule, that is.)

The Braves Need to Prepare Didier Fuentes as a Starter

Can either Spencer Strider or Reynaldo López find both the health and the form to make the Steamer projection of 230 combined innings a reality? Can Bryce Elder and Grant Holmes more reliably miss bats and minimize hard contact to qualify for ERA leaderboards?

This particular offseason plan doesn’t meaningfully answer the workload questions surrounding the rotation.

But it also doesn’t treat the offensive improvement as something that will miraculously happen because Austin Riley stays healthy, Sean Murphy rebounds, and Ronald Acuña Jr. doesn’t randomly struggle with four-seam fastballs for half the season, either.

The Braves were roughly 50 additional trips to first base from being a league-average on-base offense last year. No single player’s going to add all 50, but this offseason strategy buys two shots at closing the gap. It also diversifies a lefty-heavy offense with a right-handed source of traffic, giving the roster another way to score when the home runs aren’t coming.

The rotation would remain a gamble, but for once, the offense wouldn’t be one too.

1. The next CBA could replace the existing international signing system with a hard-slotted draft, leaving the precise form of that penalty up in the air. Do they take away a draft pick?

2. Thrown Out On The Bases Like A Nincompoop