Welcome to a new feature, the Friday mailbag. For at least the offseason, and hopefully through the regular season as well, I want to spend Fridays answering your questions - Braves, MLB, or otherwise.
Doing a mailbag is an ego-centric exercise, and this was no exception; I got over 50 questions submitted, so thank you for sending those in.
(If you have one to submit, you can email me at contact@bravestoday.com.)
Clearly, getting to all 50+ today isn’t happening, but I’ve saved the ones I couldn’t get to and we’ll keep working through them on Fridays throughout the offseason. Paid subscribers get first priority, but I’ll pull questions from email and social media too.
Let’s talk about it.
Do you think the Braves are happy making the playoffs and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle similar to 2021 while maximizing their profits? It just seems to me that championships are not a priority.
David
I get this question a lot, and let’s go back to what the team has said here.
Last season, when the Braves were stuck with a million rotation injuries and ended up with a losing record, Terry McGuirk, Derek Schiller, and other business folks from Atlanta Braves Holdings got on an earnings call and admitted that attendance was down in Q3.
Team president Derek Schiller wasn’t happy about it, confessing that “there is a relationship between team performance and ticketing and attendance.” They also admitted that retail spending was down, directly correlated to the attendance drop.
Revenue was actually up, however, which I explained at the time was due to new premium seating options, existing sponsorships, etc.
This is a roundabout way of saying that I don’t think the baseball people are making decisions with the business side in mind, and that the business side wants the team to be as successful as possible, because they know it’s good for business.
But that’s not entirely what David was asking.
I also don’t think that this front office is very inclined to go “all in” at any one particular trade deadline to marginally improve their chances of winning a World Series in that particular season, either.
And honestly, that’s probably a pretty defensible position to take! Baseball’s postseason has enough of its outcome influenced by randomness that there’s no guarantee that significantly subtracting future assets (prospects) in order to improve a given season’s World Series odds will end up being the right decision.
Look at San Diego, for instance: AJ Preller is one of the league’s most aggressive traders, having moved pieces like a top shortstop prospect (Leo De Vries) last season for closer Mason Miller last year and three of their top nine prospects this season for starters Casey Mize and Robbie Ray.
They lost in the Wild Card round last year and the Divisional Series this year.
Now, could you argue that Alex Anthopoulos is too conservative at the trade deadline and should probably be more willing to part with prospects than he is? Sure, it’s a defensible position to take.
But also, was this offense one really worth investing in? From May 1st through July 30th, the Braves were 22nd in wRC+ (94) and had the single worst month of any MLB team in June, putting up an anemic 65 wRC+.
The team’s almost always a contender, except when they have the entire Opening Day rotation on the 60-day IL at the same time, and at the end of the day, I’d rather have multiple shots at a championship than a Red Sox-style three consecutive sub-.500 seasons followed by two Wild Card eliminations, as they’ve done in the last five years. Or the Cubs, who were 26 games under .500 from 2021-2024 before finally breaking through with two Wild Card berths.
On the spectrum of conservative to aggressive, Anthopoulos and Preller occupy the two extreme ends. AA should probably move a bit towards the middle, but not that far.
Tell me your thoughts on the Braves selling. There was something recently about how the Braves could be at a disadvantage when a tax change happenss soon. Also, what a sale means for minor shareholders like me. (I think I own About 170 shares so I should be consulted on any deals lol.)
Matt
Not to speak for Matt, but I’m guessing this question was prompted by a September letter from investment firm Breach Inlet Capital Management that was sent to the Board of Directors of Atlanta Braves Holdings, asking them to consider selling the team.
Breach Inlet’s shares, and likely Matt’s as well, are Class C shares, with no voting rights attached to them. The only shares that have the ability to vote on corporate resolutions are Class A (1 vote) and Class B (10 votes) shares, so they’re the only ones that matter on a decision to sell or not. Most of those shares are owned by Braves management and company insiders.
If the company were to sell, I believe Matt wouldn’t receive much more than the book value of his shares plus whatever premium was involved as part of the sale price. Same for Breach Inlet.
But the argument to sell the Braves comes down to, essentially, the rising franchise values for all sports teams, but specifically those in baseball, as evidenced by recent sales of the Orioles ($1.725B valuation), the Padres ($3.9B), and the Angels ($4B). With a lockout coming that could potentially hurt the league if games are missed next year, why not capitalize on that rising tide and cash out?
The other issue, a tax change, is one that we’ve actually written about before, although it’s due an update.
Upcoming changes to the tax code will, essentially, prevent the Braves from taking a tax deduction for the salaries of certain “highly compensated” employees, i.e. players. As the Braves are the only publicly traded team in MLB, they’re the only ones that will be negatively impacted by this; privately held teams like the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, etc. will still be able to write off the salaries of some of their highly paid stars.
This is Section 162(m) of the tax code, and the Braves have had lobbyists working on this for a while now. They said in the last earnings call that they’re confident they’ll get it resolved before the January 1st, 2027 date for it to take effect, but we still haven’t seen either an exemption for them or a change to the proposal that would effectuate this.
When I did the math last year, my calculation was that this would amount to an extra $19M in tax payments for the Braves, which significantly dwarfs the $4.2M in federal income taxes they actually paid in 2024. And I believe it’s even higher now, as Chris Sale’s new salary would raise the figure.
I’ll dig a bit more into this and report back.
Thanks for inquiring about our thoughts. Earlier in the year I remember you going to a Steep Canyon concert. I love the Rangers also and live in the same town as half the band (Brevard, NC). My wife tought a couple of them in Sunday school.
I would like to discuss long term contracts for pitchers. So far it looks like the contract for Strider is a bust. Will that keep AA from offering other young picthers long term deals? I’m thinking yes.
Jim
On the pitcher contracts, injuries are the big issue here, but you’re right in that I don’t really see Atlanta doing any pitching extensions any time soon. If you think about it, the whole reason to extend a young player is to lock in the cost certainty and the value if you think their performance is going to go to another level. There’s just not anyone on the roster with the combination of stuff and health to envision a breakout as one of the best pitchers in baseball.
And even then, pitchers are healthy until they’re not, and it feels like a matter of time before any pitcher goes down with an injury. Even Bryce Elder, who threw 550 MLB innings over the last few seasons, finally went down with an injury this season.
If anyone gets extended, which is unlikely during the CBA negotiation process, my guess is Drake Baldwin - we wrote about that earlier this week, after AA was asked about it on Sunday in his end-of-season press conference.
Steep Canyon Rangers was a great show, and the all-female bluegrass band they had opening for them were really good, too! SCR brought them back out at the end of the show and the two groups gathered around a few mics and had an impromptu jam session, which was a ton of fun.
My summer concert attendance has tailed off a bit the last few seasons, since I’ve been doing the live postgame shows after each Braves game, but we still caught some decent shows this summer: SCR, Jason Isbell, Weird AL (one of these things is not like the other), and Chris Stapleton. I missed Jamey Johnson to work game three of the Wild Card - damn you Dylan Lee - although I’m making up for it with Clint Black (with Midland opening) tonight.
Is it worth it to sign a significant free agent like Dubon before the lockout because we won’t know what the future taxes/thresholds will look like?
What would your perfect offseason look like? Don’t worry about money but be reasonable.
What would a “successful 2027” look like?
Predict who plays the most starts at SS.
Do the Braves give Dubon or Mahle a Qualifying Offer?
Does Strider ever strikeout more than 200 again?
Doc
Doc came prepared, so let’s go rapid fire here.
Signing a free agent before the new CBA: I think Dubón’s not a problem, because it’s doubtful his contract is the difference in being above/below any specific spending threshold (although I’m still convinced the owners won’t get a cap through this time). To me, only the giant contracts are the ones that are going to be impacted by a new deal, and when has Atlanta played in that market?
My perfect (and realistic) offseason:
Position players:
A big bat for left field, preferably Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena, bringing back Dubón (shortstop), and some other infield depth that can serve as Albies/Riley insurance - JP Crawford, maybe, or a new utility bat with promise. Obviously, I’d be open to acquiring a shortstop via trade, but if we’re being honest, I’d rather have Suzuki and Dubón than something like Jeremy Peña and then the Yastrzemski/Dubón/Profar trio in LF and DHPitchers: Bring back Tyler Mahle or sign Michael Soroka as a mid-rotation arm, sign Sonny Gray/trade for Jacob deGrom as a #2 behind Sale, and add a high-octane arm for the bullpen. Maybe that’s Raisel Iglesias coming back, or maybe it’s one of San Diego’s high-octane arms (Adrian Morejon or Jason Adam), or even Evan Phillips of the Dodgers.
What would a successful 2027 look like: winning the NL East again and having a viable shot in the postseason. I think if we were all being honest, we had very little expectation of Atlanta getting past LA, and while I don’t want to say I’d be happy with capping out at an NLDS appearance again, looking competitive and like you somewhat belong to be there would be a big deal to me.
Who makes the most starts at SS: Give me Dubón with 130 and Jim Jarvis with 30 (and Brett Wisely with two, for giggles), but I don’t love it.
Qualifying offer for Dubón or Mahle: I don’t think Atlanta needs to extend Dubón a qualifying offer, which would be $23.15M for next season, just to keep him; they can likely give him that much money and get two seasons out of him. Mahle isn’t eligible, given the fact that he was traded midseason.
Strider hitting 200Ks in a season again: I honestly don’t know if Strider does it, given the fact that it’s already pretty rare in the modern MLB - only 13 starters did it this year - but I want to believe. I do think he can get back to being a top-half-of-the-rotation starter. He might not be 2023 Strider, but he’ll be a starter…the question is for how long.
1) What are the pros and cons of changing hitting coaches?
2) Who was the former coach RAJ was referring to negatively in the recent podcast?
Peck
On the hitting coaches, I think the main negative (assuming you make the right hire) is the amount of time it takes for the new guy to learn your current roster and earn their trust.
Michael Harris is a great example here — the adjustments he made at midseason to take off after the 2025 All-Star Break were being suggested by Tim Hyers since spring training, but for whatever reason, Michael either didn’t want to or wasn’t listening to Hyers. We didn’t actually see Mike adjust until Chipper, who has a more established relationship with Harris, went to Michael and said the same thing that Hyers did.
The pro is somewhat the same issue, actually — sometimes, a voice just gets stale. That was the issue with Kevin Seitzer, who told David O’Brien (then of The Athletic) back in October of 2024 that he just couldn’t get through to the guys anymore.
“It was the hardest season of my life, because guys were trying so hard and couldn’t get going, and I couldn’t get them to (not press),” Seitzer told O’Brien. “If they can find somebody to get these guys to not try so hard, that needs to be the guy they hire. You can talk about mechanics until the cows come home, but this (struggles this season) was all between the ears.”
It’d be frustrating to see the team fire Hyers after just two seasons, and Anthopoulos indicated on Sunday that there were no immediate plans to change the coaching staff, but it wouldn’t be a shock for Atlanta to move on in light of the below-average results on the field. Long-time hitting coach Kevin Long, most recently of the Phillies, was relieved of his duties earlier this week and likely wouldn’t be willing to take a demotion to assistant hitting coach. If there’s a coaching change in the cards after Atlanta finishes their post-mortem meetings on the 2026 season, that’s where I’d expect it to be.
As far as the viral Ronald Acuña Jr. podcast comments from earlier this season, which were notable for his use of a slur to refer to a past coach, initial belief was that he was referring to now-retired Brian Snitker. Acuña himself has denied that it was a reference to Snitker and speculation has instead centered on former catching coach Sal Fasano. The episode featured former Braves catcher William Contreras, who was traded to Milwaukee after Fasano and Contreras clashed amid reports of poor defense and a lack of effort behind the plate, and he was an active participant in that specific conversation.
Aloha Lindsay,
Bet you didnt know Braves country extends to the Aloha state.
My questions:
Who would win in a footrace - Matt Olson or Sid Bream?
Should the Braves consider trading Ronald? I understand they’d be selling low, but surely they can get more than the CBA pick if he were to leave right?
Thanks for the great coverage! Well worth the subscription.
Erik
Thanks for the question, Erik, and for reading all the way from Hawaii! I’ve taken a liking to musubi recently; there’s a poke place that just opened near my preferred Waffle House, so sometimes I pop in and grab one as a snack from time to time.
On the footrace question: Please, we all know Matt Olson is fast.
I understand the thought on trading Ronald, and I likely need to make this an entire newsletter/podcast segment, but I still think moving him this winter is a bad idea. For starters, you’re right in that it would be selling low. You’d get legitimate assets for him, but it wouldn’t quite be the Juan-Soto-to-the-Padres deal or probably even the Juan-Soto-to-the-Yankees deal.
If you do decide to trade him, see if he can rebuild some value next season and then make the move heading into his final year of team control…but honestly, I don’t think it’s smart. All it would do is create a hole in your outfield, a spot where you’ve been entirely unsuccessful at finding internal options outside of Michael Harris in center. And now that you have some high-ceiling prospects working their way through the farm system, your best-case scenario would be replacing Ronald with someone like Eric Hartman, whose ceiling could theoretically be…Ronald Acuña Jr.
Let’s wrap this one up with a few social media questions.
What does a Tyler Mahle extension look like? I was thinking 3 years 45 million, but seen people saying he could get 20+ million per year.
André
Mahle and Dubón are the two free agents that I think people are dramatically undershooting; I’m fully expecting each of them to get a mini-bag.
When you think about the closest comps to Tyler Mahle based on age and performance, I come up with four: Michael King and Nathan Eovaldi (both 3/$75M), Michael Wacha (3/$51M), and Eduardo Rodriguez (4/$80M). I think his performance has been close to that group, and the small statistical step back he has in a few categories over those guys is likely counterbalanced by the inflation that pops up every winter and pushes each deal a little bit higher. I’m thinking something like 3/$60M, honestly. Whether Atlanta pays that or someone else does, I find it hard to think he doesn’t come away from this winter’s class with a small bag.
Lindsay, need you to spill on the pile of baseball books TBR...
John
I have this terrible habit of grabbing books to read and they sit there until after the season ends. The baseball books in there right now (leaving off the random sci-fi; I’m a fan of hard science fiction):
“This One Will be Different” from economist J.C. Bradbury, Kennesaw State. This one’s about sports stadium funding and how they never, ever deliver a return on investment to the public entities that finance them.
“Unhittable”, from Rob Friedman, also known as Pitching Ninja. He actually sent me his home address so I could send it in to be inscribed, and I still haven’t dropped it in the mail yet. I was going to handwrite an invitation/request to come on to the podcast and slip it in the box, so I should get on that.
“You Gotta Have Wa”, by Robert Whiting. It’s from 1989, but it’s considered one of the “greatest books on baseball” by The Economist so I grabbed a discounted copy to read this winter.
"The Tao of the Backup Catcher" by Tim Brown. This was a gift from a friend.
"How We Played the Game: Baseball at Manzanar, 1942–1945" and "¡Arriba! The Heroic Life of Roberto Clemente", both from the Society for American Baseball Research. I joined SABR last year; members get free e-book copies of all books they publish, and I grabbed both of these just recently from the digital library. I plan to attend my first in-person event in the spring: the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix, being held at ASU next March.
Why do you refer to it as “my wife’s cat”? If the cat lives in your house, isn’t she your cat as well?
Dave
Dave makes a good point here. After both Bandit and our other elder cat, Bo, passed earlier this year, we’re down to just the 15-year-old Maggie in the house (and our actual human children, obviously). And while I call her my wife’s cat, she actually spends most of her time now in my office and sleeps on my side of the bed at night. Guess she’s actually my cat, not my wife’s.