The Regression Is Here for Braves Pitching

Atlanta’s staff was outperforming its peripherals. Now the results are starting to normalize.

The regression monster has come for Atlanta’s pitching staff.

Heading into Tuesday’s game, Atlanta’s pitchers had one of the lowest ERAs in baseball (2.86) despite some middling peripherals that suggested regression was coming - a strikeout rate of just 21.8% (19th in baseball) and an unsustainably low .250 Batting Average on Balls In Play (29th in MLB).

And just like Monday night’s 10-4 loss, when every Braves pitcher allowed a run, Tuesday followed a similar script — an early unraveling from the starter, although he was able to stabilize as the outing went on and keep Atlanta in the game long enough for Dom Smith to play the hero in the 8th inning.

So what’s actually going on, and can the offense pick up the slack? Let’s talk about it.