It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET
Location: Daikon Park, Houston TX
TV: BravesVision (local)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: The Astros refuse to open the Daikon Park roof, so this doesn’t matter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta’s going with the playoff lineup again, sticking Dubón at shortstop.
Houston Astros Lineup
SS Jeremy Peña
DH Yordan Alvarez
3B Isaac Paredes
2B Jose Altuve
CF Daulton Varsho
1B Christian Walker
RF Taylor Trammell
LF LaMonte Wade Jr.
C Christian Vázquez
Quick thoughts:
Please don’t let Yordan Alvarez beat you.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (6-10, 3.91 but 3-1, 1.25 w/ ATL)
Quick snapshot:
3.91 ERA / 4.05 xERA / 3.95 FIP
w/ ATL: 1.25 ERA / 3.87 xERA / 3.03 FIP
22.3% K / 7.5% BB / 14.7% K-BB%
w/ ATL: 22.9% K / 3.6% BB / 19.3% K-BB
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 47.4% four-seamer, 40.6% splitter, 12% cutter, no sliders
vs RHH: 50.4% four-seamer, 35.0% splitter, 9.0% cutter, 5.6% slider
What to watch:
The Atlanta results remain outstanding: 43⅓ innings, six earned runs, 38 strikeouts, six walks and a 1.25 ERA. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all seven Braves starts.
The streamlined arsenal has held. My pitch-by-pitch calculation has Mahle at 48.5% four-seamers, 38.6% splitters, 10.9% cutters and only 2% sliders since the trade. That means 87.1% four-seamers and splitters, compared with 77.3% for the full season.
Mahle’s Atlanta approach is extremely concentrated regardless of handedness. He has thrown his four-seamer and splitter on 88% of his pitches to lefties and 85.4% to righties. The primary distinction is his slider: Mahle hasn’t thrown one to a left-handed hitter since the trade, while using it 5.6% of the time against righties. Lefties consequently see more splitters and cutters, while righties receive slightly more four-seamers and the entirety of his slider usage.
The two primary pitches perform different jobs. Since joining Atlanta, the four-seamer has produced more strikeouts and whiffs but has surrendered three homers. The splitter has held hitters to approximately a .198 average and .264 slugging percentage, with only one homer. The fastball supplies the ceiling; the splitter protects him from damaging contact.
The reverse split remains the matchup concern. Across the full season, righties have an .817 OPS against Mahle compared with .626 for lefties. Since the trade, those figures have improved to approximately .721 and .487, respectively, but the gap remains. Altuve, Peña, Paredes, Walker and Yainer Diaz collectively present the tougher challenge than Yordan Alvarez simply because he bats left-handed.
The first inning still deserves attention. Mahle has a 5.40 first-inning ERA, with opponents hitting .308/.368/.548 and launching five homers. Bryce Harper took him deep in the first inning of his latest start before Mahle settled in for seven innings of one-run baseball.
The sixth inning is the other danger area. Mahle has a 7.50 ERA and .810 opponent OPS in the sixth. If Houston’s right-handed core is seeing him for the third time, Atlanta shouldn’t let the 1.25 Braves ERA automatically dictate a long leash.
The Astros against Mahle:
The good: There is no meaningful track record of damage. Cam Smith is 1-for-1 with a walk, while Christian Vázquez and LaMonte Wade Jr. are each 1-for-2.
The bad: Yainer Diaz (0-for-7), Daulton Varsho (1-for-9, five strikeouts), Christian Walker (1-for-10, three strikeouts), Jeremy Peña (1-for-7) and Yordan Alvarez (1-for-6).
No hitter on Houston’s current active roster has homered against Mahle.
Opposing Starter: RHP Peter Lambert (8-9, 3.71 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.71 ERA / 3.68 xERA / 3.81 FIP
22.9 K% / 9.1 BB% / 13.8% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer: 31%, 93.9 mph
Changeup: 24%, 86.9 mph
Slider: 12%, 85.6 mph
Cutter: 11%, 91.6 mph
Sinker: 9%, 93.4 mph
Sweeper: 8%, 82.8 mph
Slurve: 5%, 80.2 mph
Atlanta’s path against Lambert:
Lambert’s 3.71 ERA is largely legitimate. His 3.69 xERA, .297 xwOBA and 6.4% barrel rate closely support the results. This isn’t a generic fifth starter whom Atlanta should expect to solve automatically.
Statcast classifies eight different pitch shapes, but the changeup is the pitch to avoid. Lambert throws a four-seamer 31.4% of the time and the changeup 23.7%, followed by a slider, cutter, sinker, sweeper and slurve. The changeup has held hitters to a .206 average, .248 slugging percentage and .243 xwOBA with a 33.2% whiff rate.
The plan changes dramatically by handedness. Against lefties, Lambert is essentially four-seamer/changeup first: 32.4% four-seamers and 31.8% changeups. Against righties, the changeup falls to 12.9% while his sinker rises to 20.9% and his slider/sweeper combination reaches 28%. Acuña and Riley will receive many more fastballs and glove-side breaking balls than Olson, Harris and Baldwin.
His platoon split requires two different forms of offense. Lefties have only a .594 OPS against Lambert, but they have drawn 45 of his 56 walks—a 13.1% walk rate. Righties have walked only 11 times but are hitting .259 with a .408 slugging percentage and .712 OPS. Atlanta’s lefties should supply the traffic; its righties offer the better damage path.
Hunt the four-seamer, sinker and cutter. The four-seamer has allowed a .440 slugging percentage and a 49.6% hard-hit rate. Hitters are batting .286 against the sinker and .273 against the cutter. All three are much safer targets than trying to lift the changeup.
There is a park-specific home-run route. Lambert allows 62% of his contact in the air, with a 19.1% pulled-air rate compared with the 16.9% MLB rate. He has only allowed 14 homers, so this isn’t an extreme home-run problem, but Atlanta’s righties pulling one of those fastballs toward the Crawford Boxes is the clearest power matchup.
His apparent August fatigue has subsided. Lambert posted a 5.76 ERA in August and failed to finish six innings in any of his six starts. He has since completed 13 innings over two outings without issuing a walk, including a 73% strike rate against Tampa Bay. He has reached a career-high 160⅓ combined innings, but Houston believes he has found a second wind.
The fourth inning has been the opening. Lambert owns a 5.96 ERA and .785 opponent OPS in the fourth, his worst full inning. That generally corresponds with the top of the lineup beginning its second look.
The Braves against Lambert:
The good: Mike Yastrzemski (4-for-10, double, triple, homer, four walks, 1.571 OPS), Michael Harris II (2-for-3), Austin Riley (2-for-5, double).
The bad: Matt Olson (0-for-5), Ronald Acuña Jr. (0-for-3), Dominic Smith (0-for-3), Ha-Seong Kim (1-for-7, two strikeouts).
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Relatively static four-seamer/changeup mix, with slurves used early as strike stealers and sliders added in a bit heavier in pitcher’s counts.
vs RHH: A multi-fastball attack, with the changeup as the primary putaway pitch and the sweeper as an ancillary weapon. Slider backs off a bit with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Are you ready for retirement? Ford Stokes and Zac Blackerby are Braves fans who want to help you make sure you have income for life. Email Zac (zac@activewealth.com) or Ford (ford@activewealth.com) for your free Social Security roadmap today.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available/potential limitations:
Owen Murphy is likely down after 46 pitches on Wednesday, given that he’s not accustomed to working in relief, while there’s potentially one more day needed for AJ Smith-Shawver after he made what was, in essence, a start on Monday.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves should be good to go here for the opener, having their full complement of leverage arms and length (Ray Kerr, Victor Mederos, Brent Suter) available.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
The Astros have a fresh longman in Ronel Blanco, who threw 62 pitches almost a week ago.
Potential Limitations:
Houston’s series win against the Royals this week took something out of the bullpen, with Bryan King likely being down after back-to-back outings on Wednesday and Thursday. Closer Josh Hader and setup man Bryan Abreu both worked two of the three games, but given that they each had Wednesday off, they’re likely available tonight and could then come back on Sunday.
Quick takeaway:
The Astros are battling for their playoff lives, so expect them to use the bullpen like it. I’m guessing most everyone will be available, even if they normally wouldn’t be in a similar situation in June or July.
Final Thought
The Braves are -116 on the moneyline to Houston’s -102 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. The hinge point is which lineup exploits the reverse platoon split: Lambert’s right-handed opponents do substantially more damage, and Mahle has experienced the same problem. Atlanta’s ideal formula is walks from the lefties followed by damage from Acuña or Riley. Mahle’s challenge is preventing Houston’s right-handed core from turning an early fastball into the kind of first-inning homer that has followed him all season.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.