It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

First Pitch: 2:10 PM ET
Location: Daikon Park, Houston TX
TV: BravesVision (local)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: The Astros refuse to open the Daikon Park roof, so this doesn’t matter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
DH Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
3B Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
RF Brewer Hicklen
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

The scuffling Austin Riley (10-51 with 20 strikeouts in his last 15 games) gets the day off, replaced by Mauricio Dubón, while Ronald Acuña Jr. gets a “half-day” at DH.

Houston Astros Lineup

SS Jeremy Peña
LF Yordan Alvarez
3B Isaac Paredes
DH Jose Altuve
C Yanier Diaz
1B Christian Walker
RF Cam Smith
2B Nick Allen
CF Brice Matthews

Quick thoughts:

Brice Matthews, who was just activated off the IL yesterday, replaces Daulton Varsho in LF while old friend Nick Allen has a chance at a revenge game in the finale, batting 8th at second base.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (9-9, 3.07)

Quick snapshot:

3.07 ERA / 4.60 xERA / 4.25 FIP
17.4% K / 10.4% BB / 7.0% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

vs LHH: 54% sinker, 26% changeup, 13% cutter, 5% curveball, 2% four-seamer
vs RHH: 33% changeup, 27% sinker, 26% cutter, 8% curveball, 5% four-seamer

What to watch from Martín Pérez

The enormous home/road split gets its final test at Daikin Park. Pérez has a 1.80 ERA and .517 opponent OPS at Truist Park, compared with a 4.60 ERA and .815 OPS on the road. He has allowed nine road homers in 62⅔ innings versus four in 75 home innings. That makes this a much tougher assignment than his season ERA suggests.
The post-break ERA hides deteriorating strikeout-to-walk numbers. Pérez owns a 2.40 ERA in 56⅓ second-half innings, but only 38 strikeouts against 28 walks. In September, he has nine strikeouts and ten walks across 16⅔ innings. His 3.07 ERA is accompanied by a 4.58 xERA.
The changeup remains the pitch that makes everything work. Hitters have batted .169 and slugged .279 against it, and its 34% whiff rate easily leads his arsenal. The sinker has produced only a 7.8% whiff rate and carries a .360 xwOBA, while the seldom-used four-seamer has allowed a .423 wOBA.
His reverse split is real, but it requires context. Righties have only a .644 OPS against Pérez, compared with .704 for lefties. However, he has walked 51 of the 409 right-handed batters he has faced. Pérez throws righties 33% changeups, 27.2% sinkers and 26% cutters; that changeup must prevent Houston’s right-handed lineup from simply sitting on something firm.
The combination of walks and pulled air is especially dangerous here. Pérez’s 20.1% pulled-air rate is well above the 16.9% league rate. Houston’s righties can attack the Crawford Boxes, so a walk in front of Altuve, Paredes, Díaz or one of the club’s other pull hitters can quickly become more than harmless traffic.
The first inning deserves immediate attention. Pérez has walked 17 batters in 25 opening innings, contributing to a .360 OBP, 1.52 WHIP and 4.32 ERA. Houston has struggled offensively, but Pérez cannot help its top of the order manufacture an early rally.

The Astros against Pérez:

The good: Jose Altuve (17-for-58, nine doubles, HR, .849 OPS), Nelson Velázquez (2-for-2, HR, walk), Yainer Díaz (1-for-2, HR), Christian Walker (1-for-2, double)
The bad: Jeremy Peña (2-for-13), Christian Vázquez (2-for-9), Isaac Paredes (1-for-6, two walks), Daulton Varsho (0-for-3)
Yordan Alvarez is only 3-for-16 with five strikeouts, although two of those hits—a double and a homer—went for extra bases.

Opposing Starter: RHP Hunter Brown (6-3, 3.43 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

3.43 ERA / 3.32 xERA / 3.94 FIP
27.1 K% / 12.1 BB% / 15.0% K-BB%

The arsenal:

Four-seamer: 31%, 96.2 mph
Sinker: 30%, 96.0 mph
Curveball: 19%, 83.4 mph
Slider: 9%, 90.7 mph
Changeup: 9%, 87.5 mph
Cutter: 1%, 93.4 mph

Atlanta’s path against Hunter Brown

Be patient—but don’t become passive. Brown has walked 12.1% of the hitters he has faced and begins only 56.2% of plate appearances with a strike. However, his four-seamer and sinker are his two best pitches by run value. Atlanta should reject borderline pitches without automatically taking a hittable fastball.
The changeup has been his most punishable pitch. Opponents have hit .321 and slugged .571 against it, with a .443 wOBA. The slider has also allowed a .275 average and .425 slugging percentage. Conversely, hitters are batting only .151 against the four-seamer and .196 against the sinker, while the curveball owns a 35.7% whiff rate.
The slider may have changed, however. Brown introduced a harder version against Kansas City, throwing it 12 times at an average of 92.9 mph—2.1 mph harder than his previous average and with more vertical drop. He used it primarily against lefties while largely shelving the changeup. Brown finished with ten strikeouts in five innings, so the old slider’s results may no longer describe the pitch Atlanta sees today; this new one is in more “death ball” territory.

His attack changes significantly by handedness, even though the results don’t. Lefties have a .655 OPS against Brown and righties are at .657. Atlanta should prioritize its best hitters rather than chasing a theoretical platoon advantage.

| Pitch       | vs. LHH | vs. RHH |
| ----------- | ------: | ------: |
| Four-seamer |   36.4% |   23.4% |
| Sinker      |   22.9% |   40.8% |
| Curveball   |   21.1% |   16.5% |
| Slider      |    4.6% |   16.6% |
| Changeup    |   13.8% |    2.0% |

Extending at-bats is more realistic than waiting for home runs. Brown owns a 56% ground-ball rate and has allowed pulled air on only 11.9% of batted balls, far below the 16.9% MLB rate. Even while striking out ten Royals, he needed 91 pitches to complete five innings—including 47 for his final six outs.
The third inning has been his recurring trouble spot. Brown has issued 15 walks in 18 third innings, resulting in a .402 opponent OBP, 1.78 WHIP and 5.00 ERA. His stuff generally doesn’t deteriorate; his strike throwing does.

The Braves against Brown:

The good: Austin Riley (3-for-6, two doubles), Ronald Acuña Jr. (4-for-9, two doubles), Matt Olson (2-for-7, HR, two walks), Ozzie Albies (1-for-4, double, two walks)
The bad: Michael Harris II (1-for-5, two strikeouts), Drake Baldwin (0-for-3)
Brown has not struck out Riley or Acuña in their combined 15 at-bats.

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: The four-seamer is the primary fastball here, paired with the curveball and changeup. The sinker’s still in the mix, but more often when behind. Offspeed’s used more early and prior to two strikes than to finish at-bats.

vs RHH: The sinker is by far the most prevalent fastball, unless the pitcher’s ahead, and then it’s virtually even use with the four-seamer. The slider steps in as the tertiary offering behind the knuckle curve, with the right-on-right changeup being relegated to an occasional palate cleanser.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available/potential limitations:

I’m curious to see if Didier Fuentes is brought back today, given that Raisel Iglesias is coming off a back-to-back (25 total pitches) and Dylan Lee needed 26 last night in his adventure of an 8th inning.

Quick takeaway:

Does Iggy, who has different usage rules as the closer, get a third consecutive outing if it’s close and the division can be clinched with a win? Does Fuentes come back after that 40-pitch outing on Friday? Or does someone else - Dylan Dodd or Victor Mederos - get a save opportunity?

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

Josh Hader’s chomping at the bit to get into a game, but the Braves will give no quarter to Houston’s bullpen and they haven’t gotten to the 9th with a lead yet.

Potential Limitations:

Both AJ Blubaugb (39 pitches) and Bennett Souza (21 pitches) are coming off a back-to-back, so I imagine Houston wants to stay away from them if possible. Logan VanWey, who is the only MLB player I’ve seen with upper- and lowercase letters on his jersey, threw 33 pitches last night and might be down today, as well.

Quick takeaway:

The Astros have their closer ready to help salvage the AL West race…if they can get the ball to him with a lead, which has been easier said than done so far this series.

Final Thought

The Braves are +124 on the moneyline to Houston’s -146 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 7.5 runs. The hinge point is: Which starter’s walks become actual runs?

Brown’s stuff can overpower Atlanta, but his command repeatedly creates opportunities and keeps his outings short. Pérez has survived his own walk problems through contact management, yet his road performance and pulled-air rate make free traffic considerably more dangerous at Daikin Park. Atlanta must make Brown work without taking hittable fastballs; Pérez must make Houston earn every baserunner.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.

The Scouting Report: Braves at Astros, Game…