It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago IL
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
With a lefty on the mound for Chicago, Atlanta puts Dubón in left field where Lane Thomas would have been, necessitating Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop.
Chicago Cubs Lineup
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
RF Seiya Suzuki
1B Michael Busch
3B Alex Bregman
LF Ian Happ
SS Nico Hoerner
DH Michael Conforto
2B Pedro Ramírez
C Carson Kelly
Quick thoughts:
Ian Happ, who was scratched from Sunday’s lineup with a knee issue, is not only in the game but in left field.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Reynaldo López (4-4, 4.13 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.13 ERA / 4.81 xERA / 4.41 FIP
21.6% K / 9.7% BB / 11.9% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 28% slider, 15% curveball, 6% changeup
vs RHH: 60% four-seamer, 37% slider, 3% curveball, <1% changeup
What to watch:
The knee may be healthy, but López still needs to prove his command is back. In his first start since July 26, he allowed six runs on seven hits and three walks over 4⅔ innings against Tampa Bay. He threw 80 pitches, only 47 for strikes. Because he reached 93 pitches in his final rehab outing, this shouldn’t be a strict workload situation; performance will determine his leash.
His slider remains the pitch that can carry him. It has produced a 34.6% whiff rate while holding hitters to a .211 average and .355 slugging percentage. The four-seamer is the problem: despite averaging 94.2 mph, it has allowed a .296 average, .467 slugging percentage and .370 wOBA while generating only a 15.7% whiff rate. López needs the fastball to establish the upper part of the zone without leaving it where Chicago can drive it.
Chicago’s path against López is loading the lineup with lefties and waiting him out. Thirty-one of his 32 walks have come against left-handed hitters. He attacks righties almost exclusively with four-seamers and sliders, but lefties also receive the curveball and changeup. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ and Michael Conforto don’t necessarily need to hit López’s best stuff; they need to make him prove he can throw it over the plate.
The first inning has been his most dangerous inning. Opponents are hitting .377 against López in the opening frame, producing a 6.75 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He escaped the first inning in his return, but Tampa immediately scored three in the second. The relevant question is whether he settles into the game before the traffic arrives.
The Cubs against López: Michael Conforto is 2-for-3 with a double and three walks. Ian Happ’s only hit in eight at-bats is a homer, although López has also struck him out four times. Alex Bregman is 2-for-12. Overall, the current Cubs have only 51 plate appearances against López and a .220 average, so the individual samples are mostly trivia rather than predictive evidence.
Opposing Starter: LHP David Peterson (7-8, 5.28 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
5.28 ERA / 5.02 xERA / 4.15 FIP
19.5 K% / 9.8 BB% / 9.7% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Sinker: 30%, 92.1 mph
Four-seamer: 24%, 92.5 mph
Slider: 22%, 86.3 mph
Changeup: 13%, 85.7 mph
Curveball: 10%, 80.5 mph
Atlanta’s path against Peterson:
Peterson has improved since leaving New York, but the recent command is wobbling again. He arrived in Chicago with a 6.09 ERA and has posted approximately a 4.41 ERA as a Cub. His two September starts have produced seven runs, 13 hits and seven walks in eight innings. Chicago has lost each of his past four starts, and Peterson hasn’t earned a win since August 12.
Atlanta should build the lineup around right-handed hitters. Righties have hit .298/.380/.429 with an .809 OPS against Peterson, compared with a .683 OPS by lefties. They have also drawn 50 of his 59 walks. Acuña, Riley, Albies, Dubón and Atlanta’s other right-handed options provide the clearest route to both traffic and damage.
Atlanta’s path against Peterson: Reject the slider and hunt the sinker or changeup. His slider is comfortably his best pitch, holding hitters to a .212 average and .273 slugging percentage with a 29.3% whiff rate. The sinker has allowed a .393 wOBA and 51.9% hard-hit rate, while opponents are batting .333 against the changeup. His curveball misses bats but has also been slugged at a .538 clip when left in hittable locations.
Chicago’s defense has helped stabilize a ground-ball pitcher—but one important piece remains absent. Peterson’s profile fits an excellent infield defense, although Dansby Swanson isn’t expected back from his oblique injury until September 18. That leaves Chicago without its best shortstop behind a pitcher who needs ground balls converted into outs.
Peterson has the same first-inning problem as López. Opponents are hitting .321/.414/.464 against him in the opening inning, with 13 walks in 20 innings. His 6.75 first-inning ERA and 2.00 WHIP give Atlanta a reason to be selective without becoming passive.
The Braves against Peterson:
The good: Ronald Acuña Jr. (7-for-23, HR, seven walks), Austin Riley (9-for-26, three doubles, .875 OPS) and Matt Olson (5-for-24, four homers).
The bad: Ozzie Albies (3-for-20) and Michael Harris II (3-for-18, seven strikeouts).
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A sinker/slider-based mix, one that ramps up curveball use when ahead and with two strikes and mostly eschews same-side changeups.
vs RHH: A more well-rounded pitch mix that ramps up sliders and changeups when ahead, prioritizes the slider when behind, and mostly uses the curveball in hitter’s counts to get back into the at-bat.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available/potential limitations:
Ray Kerr, who covered three scoreless innings on 34 pitches on Sunday, is likely the only reliever who is explicitly down today.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves are in a good place for the opener, especially with AJ Smith-Shawver being added to the relief corps on at least a temporary basis.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
Chicago’s done a good job of cycling through the various members of the leverage group over the last week, with no one putting up extraordinary pitch counts.
Potential Limitations:
Aaron Civale’s almost certainly down after a 45-pitch relief stint on Sunday.
Quick takeaway:
The Cubs should have almost everyone except the longman Civale available today.
Final Thought
The Braves are +116 on the moneyline to Chicago’s -134 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 9.5 runs. Who survives the first-inning traffic? Both pitchers have a 6.75 opening-frame ERA, but the vulnerabilities are different. Atlanta should force Peterson to throw fastballs to a right-handed-heavy lineup; López must avoid giving Chicago’s lefties free access to the bases. If either starter opens the game with a walk, that could be an expensive base on balls.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
Even batting from the right side, I don't like Albies hitting clean up. I hope he has a better day than the last two but optimism is hard to generate.