It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago IL
TV: BravesVision (local)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Ozzie Albies, after one day batting 8th, is right back to the #8 spot in the order. Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim check in, batting 8th and 9th, respectively.
Chicago Cubs Lineup
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
RF Seiya Suzuki
1B Michael Busch
3B Alex Bregman
LF Ian Happ
SS Nico Hoerner
DH Michael Conforto
2B Pedro Ramírez
C Carson Kelly
Quick thoughts:
Chicago’s back to their normal lineup, now that a right-hander is on the mound for Atlanta.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP JR Ritchie (1-2, 4.50 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.08 ERA / 4.60 xERA / 4.24 FIP
20.7% K / 14.1% BB / 6.6% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 27% curveball, 23% four-seamer, 21% changeup, 13% cutter, 11% sinker, 4% slider
vs RHH: 36% sinker, 28% curveball, 11% slider, 10% changeup, 9% four-seamer, 5% cutter
What to watch:
This is at least a slightly different version of Ritchie. Over his last two Gwinnett starts, he struck out 24 hitters while walking only two in 12⅔ innings. That’s a 17.1 K/9—more than double his 8.4 K/9 across his previous Triple-A innings this season. He set a Gwinnett record with 15 strikeouts on September 6, then followed it with nine over six innings against Jacksonville.
The velocity gain appears legitimate, but tonight will tell us whether it travels. During the 15-strikeout outing, Ritchie’s four-seamer averaged 95 mph and touched 97. His major-league four-seamer has averaged 94.5, while an early-April Gwinnett start averaged only 93.9. One dominant outing doesn’t establish a permanent velocity tier, but this wasn’t simply a couple of 97s surrounded by 93s.
The bigger transformation may be count leverage. Ritchie threw 73% strikes and started 68% of hitters with a strike during that 15-strikeout performance. In the majors, his first-pitch-strike rate has been only 53.3%, compared with the 61.2% MLB average, helping produce a 14.1% walk rate. More velocity helps; getting to 0-1 often enough to use all six pitches may help even more.
Watch whether the harder fastball elevates everything around it. Ritchie’s curveball has been his best major-league bat-misser, producing a 31.9% whiff rate and .268 wOBA. The four-seamer has allowed a .541 slugging percentage and .413 wOBA, while the changeup has surrendered a .500 slugging percentage. In the 15-strikeout outing, the four-seamer, curveball, cutter and changeup all graded as above-average offerings. If 95–97 makes hitters honor the heater, his greatest strength - the depth of the repertoire - becomes considerably more difficult to cover.
The two existing concerns haven’t disappeared: lefties and home runs. Left-handed hitters have a .376 OBP and .793 OPS against Ritchie in the majors, compared with .293 and .607 for righties. He has walked 25 of the 157 lefties he has faced. Chicago can challenge him with Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ and Michael Conforto from that side. Ritchie has also allowed nine MLB homers in 58 innings and three more across his last two Triple-A starts. The strikeouts changed; the occasional damaging air ball did not.
The Cubs against Ritchie: There isn’t enough history for a meaningful good/bad list. He held Chicago to one run and two hits over 4⅓ innings in May, although he walked three. Alex Bregman and Carson Kelly recorded the two hits, and nobody received more than two at-bats. Tonight’s Cubs will be seeing a harder-throwing, more strikeout-oriented version—but Ritchie must prove that version against major-league hitters.
Opposing Starter: LHP Shota Imanaga (10-10, 3.88 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.88 ERA / 3.87 xERA / 4.69 FIP
23.6 K% / 5.6 BB% / 18.0% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer: 41%, 91.6 mph
Splitter: 34%, 82.8 mph
Sweeper: 15%, 80.9 mph
Sinker: 6%, 90.1 mph
Curveball: 3%, 74.4 mph
Slider: 2%, 86.4 mph
Atlanta’s path against Imanaga:
Imanaga has recovered from his rough beginning, although the improvement hasn’t been entirely smooth. He carried a 4.74 ERA through his first 13 starts but has a 3.13 ERA over the following 16. That includes a 1.53 ERA in July, a 5.96 ERA in August and a 2.25 mark through two September starts. His overall 3.88 ERA aligns closely with a 3.85 xERA, so the full-season result is largely deserved.
Atlanta’s path against Imanaga: Reject the splitter and hunt everything else. The splitter has held hitters to a .194 average, .339 slugging percentage and .237 xwOBA while generating a 40.9% whiff rate. The four-seamer has allowed a .490 slugging percentage, the sweeper .580 and the sinker .538. Atlanta doesn’t need to eliminate a particular velocity band; it needs to distinguish the splitter dropping underneath the zone from the fastballs and sweepers that remain available to damage.
His arsenal has become less fastball-dependent. Imanaga has reduced his four-seamer from 48.6% last season to 40.7%, while throwing 33.7% splitters, 14.7% sweepers and 6% sinkers. The new pitches haven’t necessarily been good—the sweeper and sinker have combined to allow a wOBA around .400—but their presence makes it harder to sit exclusively on the four-seamer/splitter combination.
His platoon split is backward enough that Matt Olson shouldn’t be treated as disadvantaged. Lefties have a .774 OPS and .475 slugging percentage against Imanaga, compared with .707 and .427 for righties. Left-handed hitters have also homered once every 16 plate appearances, a higher rate than righties. Atlanta should still use its right-handed depth, but this isn’t a matchup that requires hiding Olson or Michael Harris II.
There are two windows to attack: immediately and after the lineup turns over. Imanaga owns a 4.97 first-inning ERA with seven homers allowed. He then settles in—his second- and third-inning ERAs are 1.86 and 0.96—before rising above 5.00 in each of the fourth, fifth and sixth. Atlanta shouldn’t confuse a quiet middle portion of the first trip with Imanaga becoming untouchable.
The Braves against Imanaga:
The good: Ozzie Albies is 5-for-12 with two homers and a 1.333 OPS; Drake Baldwin is 2-for-6 with a double, homer and 1.333 OPS; Matt Olson is 5-for-11 with a triple, walk and 1.136 OPS.
The bad: Ronald Acuña Jr. is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts; Ha-Seong Kim is 1-for-10; Michael Harris II is 2-for-9; Mauricio Dubón and Austin Riley are a combined 0-for-6.
Collectively, the current Braves are batting .254 with a .721 OPS against him.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Predominantly four-seamers and sweepers to open the at-bat, with splitters joining the mix once he’s ahead in the count.
vs RHH: A Gausman-like four-seam/splitter attack, with minimal usage of any other secondaries.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available/potential limitations:
Didier Fuentes threw 35 pitches across two scoreless (and hitless) innings yesterday, so I’m curious to see who gets an 8th inning ahead of Raisel Iglesias if it’s a close game.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves are mostly in a good place here, although either Dylan Lee has to return to a leverage role or someone needs to step up for the 8th if it’s a save situation.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
Chicago’s done a good job of cycling through the various members of the leverage group over the last week, with no one putting up extraordinary pitch counts.
Potential Limitations:
Edward Cabrera’s likely done, after throwing 40 pitches last night. Outside of him, though, no one else has a pitch count high enough to automatically rule them out of game three.
Quick takeaway:
The Cubs should have almost everyone available today.
Final Thought
The Braves are +132 on the moneyline to Chicago’s -156 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 7.5 runs. The hinge point is the pitching for each team.
Can Ritchie preserve the count leverage that unlocked his strikeouts in Gwinnett? The extra velocity matters, but 68% first-pitch strikes may be the more consequential number. If he falls back toward his 53.3% MLB rate, Chicago’s lefties can wait him out and force hittable pitches. If the new strike-throwing survives, his six-pitch mix gives the Cubs a considerably different assignment.
For Atlanta, the corresponding challenge is simple: make Imanaga’s splitter finish below the zone without following it there. The Braves’ best damage comes against nearly everything else he throws.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.