The Scouting Report: Braves at Cubs, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

Lindsay Crosby

Sep 15, 2026

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago IL
TV: BravesVision (local) TBS (out of market)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
DH Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
RF Brewer Hicklen

Quick thoughts:

In a sign that the Atlanta Braves as an organization definitely watch and read Braves Today, Ozzie Albies is in the #8 hole tonight.

Chicago Cubs Lineup

CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
RF Seiya Suzuki
3B Alex Bregman
LF Tyrone Taylor
SS Nico Hoerner
1B Michael Busch
DH Matt Shaw
2B Pedro Ramírez
C Miguel Amaya

Quick thoughts:

Chicago’s inserted their LHP-optimized lineup, swapping out Ian Happ for Tyrone Taylor and Matt Shaw for Michael Conforto. Not a fair trade, if you ask me. m

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (8-9, 3.08 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

3.08 ERA / 4.60 xERA / 4.24 FIP
17.9% K / 10.2% BB / 7.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

vs LHH: 54% sinker, 26% changeup, 13% cutter, 5% curveball, 2% four-seamer
vs RHH: 33% changeup, 27% sinker, 26% cutter, 8% curveball, 6% four-seamer

What to watch:

Pérez arrives on a strong rebound. After allowing four runs, seven hits and four walks in 3⅔ innings at Philadelphia, he gave Atlanta seven scoreless innings against Tampa Bay. His last seven starts have produced a 2.62 ERA, although 17 walks in 34⅓ innings show that the traffic hasn’t disappeared.
Tonight tests whether his improved Truist Park process can travel. Pérez has a 1.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home, compared with a 4.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP on the road. The difference isn’t simply sequencing or bad luck: his road hard-hit rate rises from 32.2% to 42.0%, his fly-ball rate from 30.9% to 35.4% and his expected wOBA from .296 to .366. His strike-throwing has actually been slightly better away from home; the problem is what happens when hitters make contact. Our deeper examination of Pérez’s split
The pitch to watch against Chicago’s lefties is the changeup. On the road, left-handed hitters have produced a .492 wOBA and .485 xwOBA against Pérez’s sinker—but only a .148 wOBA and .230 xwOBA against his changeup. Despite that, he has thrown approximately 55% sinkers and only 25% changeups to road lefties. Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Conforto make this a particularly revealing test of whether Pérez will trust the same-handed changeup more frequently.
The first inning remains his most vulnerable point. Pérez has a 4.50 first-inning ERA with 15 walks and only 13 strikeouts in 24 innings. Even during his seven-scoreless-inning start against Tampa Bay, three of the first four hitters reached before he escaped. Chicago’s right-handed depth makes another early walk especially dangerous.
The Cubs against Pérez: Nobody on the current roster has truly punished him. Alex Bregman has the meaningful sample, going 10-for-40 with seven walks—but only one extra-base hit and a .637 OPS. Michael Conforto is 2-for-11, while Ian Happ is 0-for-3. Collectively, current Cubs have hit only .195 against Pérez, but their 12 walks in 89 plate appearances reinforce the concern about free traffic.

Opposing Starter: RHP Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.60 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

4.60 ERA / 4.03 xERA / 3.77 FIP
24.2 K% / 6.5 BB% / 17.7% K-BB%

The arsenal:

Four-seamer: 51%, 93.9 mph
Splitter: 38%, 84.1 mph
Slider: 9%, 84.0 mph
Changeup: 1%, 84.0 mph

Atlanta’s path against Gausman:

His Chicago tenure has been volatile, not uniformly bad. Gausman owns a 5.31 ERA through seven Cubs starts and just allowed six earned runs on eight hits in four innings against Milwaukee. But one start earlier, against the same Brewers lineup, he completed seven innings with one run and nine strikeouts. He also threw seven scoreless innings against Arizona in August. This looks more like dramatically uneven contact than a pitcher whose stuff has vanished.
The underlying numbers are considerably better than the 4.60 ERA. Gausman carries a 3.88 FIP, 171 strikeouts and only 46 walks in 166⅓ innings. His .309 expected wOBA is also better than the .317 wOBA hitters have actually produced. The ERA shouldn’t be dismissed, but the evidence does not point toward a broad post-trade collapse.
Atlanta’s path against Gausman: Force the splitter into the strike zone. Gausman throws approximately 51% four-seamers and 38% splitters, with the two pitches accounting for almost 90% of his repertoire. The splitter still carries a whiff rate around 40%. If Atlanta chases it beneath the zone, Gausman can dominate without showing much else. The Braves need to cover the elevated fastball while refusing to help him on splitters that begin near the bottom edge.
Right-handed hitters shouldn’t automatically be viewed as the disadvantaged group. Gausman uses his slider approximately 20% of the time against righties but only 3% against lefties, and that third pitch has been much less dependable than his fastball or splitter. Righties have also hit 14 homers against him despite receiving fewer total plate appearances than lefties. Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Atlanta’s other right-handed bats have a legitimate damage route if he leaves a slider or fastball over the plate.
The second trip through the order has been the opening. Gausman owns a 3.99 ERA the first time through but a 5.46 ERA on the second pass. Atlanta should use its first look to establish the splitter’s floor and fastball location, then attack before Chicago can prevent a third matchup with its bullpen.
The Braves against Gausman:
- The good: Matt Olson is 6-for-19 with three homers and a 1.158 OPS; Austin Riley is 4-for-9 with a homer; Mike Yastrzemski is 3-for-9 with a double and homer; Mauricio Dubón is 3-for-9 with a homer.
- The bad: Michael Harris II is 2-for-9, Ozzie Albies is 1-for-7 and Sean Murphy is 1-for-5 with three strikeouts.
Current Braves have collectively drawn only three walks in 105 plate appearances against Gausman. They have produced a modest .297 wOBA, but their .497 expected slugging percentage suggests the contact has been considerably more dangerous than the results.

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A two-pitch mix, with slightly more splitters when ahead and slightly more four-seamers when behind.

vs RHH: A more well-rounded pitch mix that uses sliders early and when behind to get back into the at-bat, while the splitter is still the primary out pitch.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available/potential limitations:

AJ Smith-Shawver, who pitched five innings last night in relief of the now-IL’d Reynaldo López, is likely the only reliever down today.

Quick takeaway:

The Braves are in a good place thanks to both AJSS resetting the pen and the addition of a fully-stretched out Owen Murphy for length.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

Chicago’s done a good job of cycling through the various members of the leverage group over the last week, with no one putting up extraordinary pitch counts.

Potential Limitations:

Aaron Civale’s almost certainly still down, while I imagine they try to stay away from Ryan Zeferjahn if they can, after he threw 24 pitches last night to wrap up the series opener.

Quick takeaway:

The Cubs should have almost everyone available today.

Final Thought

The Braves are +118 on the moneyline to Chicago’s -138 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. The bottom of the strike zone, but for different reasons. Pérez needs to trust his changeup beneath the zone, especially against Chicago’s lefties, instead of repeatedly feeding them road sinkers. Atlanta must do the reverse against Gausman: reject the splitter underneath the zone and force him to provide something hittable above it.

If Pérez brings his home contact management with him and Atlanta refuses to expand against Gausman, the surface-level ERA advantage might actually become meaningful.