The Scouting Report: Braves at Marlins, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET

• Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather: The roof’s closed on the ballpark, so…nice weather.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• The Braves are giving Dominic Smith some at-bats before the postseason, batting him8th at DH.

Miami Marlins Lineup

SS Otto Lopez
LF Heriberto Hernández
DH Jakob Marsee
3B Javier Sanoja
C Agustín Ramírez
CF Esteury Ruiz
RF Griffin Conine
1B Deyvison De Los Santos
2B Jared Serna

Quick thoughts:

• Last night’s hero, catcher Joe Mack, gets the day off.

Pitching Plans

Braves Opener: LHP Brent Suter (3-2, 3.48)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.48 ERA / 3.95 xERA / 3.61 FIP

• 20.5% K / 6.8% BB / 13.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• Sinker (34% usage, 89.0 mph)

• Changeup (28% usage, 76.6 mph)

• Four-seamer (26% usage, 87.8 mph)

• Slider (13% usage, 78.1 mph)

What to watch from Suter

• Suter is an opener mostly in name. The veteran lefty has a 3.48 ERA in 88 innings this season and, since being acquired from the Angels, has produced approximately a 1.82 ERA over 24⅔ innings. Atlanta can reasonably ask him for multiple innings instead of treating him as a one-inning matchup play.

• Expect weak contact rather than overpowering stuff. Suter mixes an 89-mph sinker, 88-mph four-seamer, 77-mph changeup and 78-mph slider. His 86.2-mph average exit velocity and 30.6% hard-hit rate explain how that modest velocity survives.

• Miami’s lefties should not automatically be treated as the soft side of the matchup. Left-handed hitters have a .789 OPS against Suter this season, compared with approximately .666 for righties. The left-handed portion of Miami’s lineup may actually present the more dangerous opening assignment.

• The primary goal is efficient length. Strikeouts would be a bonus. If Suter turns two or three innings into 30–40 pitches and keeps the ball off the barrel, Atlanta can avoid exposing its thinner bulk layer too early.

Opposing Opener: RHP Jack Ralston (0-2, 4.50 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.50 ERA / 4.21 xERA / 5.91 FIP

• 24.6 K% / 11.6 BB% / 13.0% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• Splitter (53% usage, 82.4 mph)

• Four-seamer (26% usage, 93.6 mph)

• Slider (22% usage, 85.3 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Ralston

• This is an opener assignment, not a rotation audition. Ralston has a 4.50 ERA with 17 strikeouts, eight walks and four homers allowed in 16 MLB innings—all in relief. He also threw 24 pitches Thursday after throwing 21 Tuesday, making a lengthy outing particularly unlikely.

• The backstory is more compelling than the MLB line. The 29-year-old, 6-foot-6 right-hander was a seventh-round Cardinals pick out of UCLA in 2019, signed a minor-league deal with Miami last winter and earned his first promotion after recording a 1.66 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 59⅔ Triple-A innings.

• Atlanta’s immediate assignment is recognizing the splitter. Ralston throws it 52.5% of the time, compared with 25.9% four-seamers and 21.6% sliders. The splitter has been his best MLB offering; the slider has produced only a 5% whiff rate and a .469 wOBA in a very small sample.

• Make him establish strike one. Ralston’s first-pitch-strike rate is only 50.7%, while opponents have chased just 19.1% of his pitches outside the zone. Atlanta should avoid expanding beneath the zone against the splitter and make him expose either the fastball or slider over the plate.

How the pitching paths look

Atlanta:
Opening plan: Suter for approximately 2–3 innings
Possible length behind it: Elieser Hernández is the cleanest bulk guess; Victor Mederos is another bridge option
Late innings: Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias are rested

Miami
Opening plan: Ralston likely for approximately one inning
Possible length behind it: Ryan Gusto, Bradley Blalock and lefty Dax Fulton are plausible options
Late innings: Miami’s entire leverage group is rested; maybe Sandy Alcantara?

The bullpen-availability imbalance is significant. Eury Pérez’s one-hit complete-game shutout Friday allowed Miami to avoid using a single reliever. Atlanta, meanwhile, used Ray Kerr, Grant Holmes and Didier Fuentes on Friday after Dylan Dodd and AJ Smith-Shawver supplied innings Thursday.

One fun variable: Miami canceled Sandy Alcantara’s scheduled start strictly to control his workload, not because of an injury. Manager Clayton McCullough left open the possibility of a brief relief appearance this weekend, while explicitly dismissing the idea of using him for four or five bulk innings.

Atlanta’s path against Miami

Atlanta cannot simply celebrate reaching the bullpen because the bullpen is the entire assignment. Ralston’s splitter gives him a route through the top of the order, but he has struggled to get ahead and is pitching on one day of rest. The Braves need to make every Miami reliever work, create traffic that forces mid-inning changes and turn a carefully planned sequence into a search for unexpected outs. Miami’s bullpen is fully rested, so Atlanta must defeat its bridge relievers before the Marlins can arrange their preferred late-game matchups.

---

Are you ready for retirement? Ford Stokes and Zac Blackerby are Braves fans who want to help you make sure you have income for life. Email Zac (zac@activewealth.com) or Ford (ford@activewealth.com) for your free Social Security roadmap today.

---

Final Thought

The Braves are -118 on the moneyline to Miami’s +100 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. This game will be decided by which bullpen game stops being planned first. Suter gives Atlanta a better chance of securing multiple efficient innings, but Miami enters with the deeper and more rested collection of available arms. Atlanta’s best route is to make Ralston and the first follower labor enough that Miami must use the wrong reliever in the wrong inning. Conversely, every efficient inning from Suter protects a Braves middle-relief layer already taxed over the previous two games.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.