It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 3:10 PM ET
Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
TV: BravesVision locally, FS1 outside of the Atlanta market
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: The roof’s closed on the ballpark, so…nice weather.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
LF Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
3B Austin Riley
DH Mike Yastrzemski
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim
RF Brewer Hicklen
CF DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
Quick thoughts:
Now THIS is a game 162 lineup - Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris, and Drake Baldwin all get the day off, while I’m assuming Dominic Smith (1st base) and Kyle Farmer (3rd base) check in later to finish the game. Let’s get weird - let Kyle Farmer catch the 9th inning.
Miami Marlins Lineup
RF Griffin Conine
SS Javier Sanoja
LF Heriberto Hernández
DH Augstin Ramírez
3B Graham Pauley
CF Esteury Ruiz
1B Deyvison De Los Santos
2B Jared Serna
C Brian Navarreto
Quick thoughts:
Otto Lopez gets game 162 off, with Sanoja taking over at shortstop for the season finale.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP JR Ritchie (1-4, 4.79)
Quick snapshot
4.79 ERA / 4.92 xERA
22.0% strikeout rate / 13.7% walk rate
27% curveball, 21% sinker, 19% four-seamer, 18% changeup, 9% cutter, 6% slider.
Pitch usage by handedness
Percentages are rounded shares of pitches thrown to each side.
vs. LHH: 27% curveball, 24% four-seamer, 22% changeup, 12% sinker, 11% cutter, 4% slider
vs. RHH: 36% sinker, 28% curveball, 12% four-seamer, 10% changeup, 10% slider, 4% cutter
What to watch from Ritchie
Miami’s lineup gives Ritchie a better platoon matchup than expected. The Marlins are starting seven right-handed hitters. Griffin Conine leads off and Graham Pauley bats fifth as their only lefties. Righties have a .656 OPS against Ritchie this season; lefties have an .854 OPS and have drawn 29 walks in 179 plate appearances. He cannot ignore Conine and Pauley, but most of his afternoon should be spent with the sinker-curveball combination he prefers against righties.
The Cincinnati start showed the upside without settling the command question. Ritchie held the Reds to one run in five innings and struck out eight on September 22, a strong response to the six runs he allowed the Cubs in his previous start. He also walked three of the 22 hitters he faced. The curveball can finish an at-bat; getting to the counts where he can use it remains the assignment.
Strike one is still the clearest development marker. Ritchie has thrown a first-pitch strike to 54.8% of hitters, compared with the 61.2% MLB rate. His 13.7% walk rate is more than five percentage points above league average. Even against a right-handed lineup, free baserunners can turn one mistake into a crooked inning.
Trust the curve more than the season line on the sinker. The curve has a 32.4% whiff rate. Hitters have slugged just .229 against the sinker, but its .401 expected slugging percentage suggests that result has been kinder than the quality of contact. Ritchie needs the sinker for strikes and the curve for misses, rather than assuming every sinker put in play will stay harmless.
The Marlins against Ritchie: Miami scored five earned runs against him in four innings on May 18. That outing matters as a reminder of how quickly traffic can build, but today’s right-handed-heavy order makes it a different platoon test.
Opposing Starter: RHP Janson Junk (6-9, 4.31 ERA)
Quick snapshot
4.31 ERA / 4.27 xERA
16.6% strikeout rate / 6.3% walk rate
35% four-seamer, 20% slider, 18% changeup, 14% sweeper, 9% curveball, 4% sinker.
Pitch usage by handedness
vs. LHH: 40% four-seamer, 21% changeup, 17% slider, 12% curveball, 8% sweeper, 2% sinker
vs. RHH: 27% sweeper, 25% four-seamer, 23% slider, 13% changeup, 7% sinker, 4% curveball
Atlanta’s path against Junk
The left-handed bats are central to this matchup. Junk has allowed a .287/.340/.422 line to lefties, compared with .234/.282/.406 to righties. Matt Olson, Mike Yastrzemski and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. start from the left side, and switch-hitter Ozzie Albies will bat left-handed against Junk. That gives Atlanta four chances in the order to test his less successful platoon split.
Lefties should be ready for a strike with the four-seamer. Junk throws it on roughly 40% of his pitches to left-handed hitters, with the changeup next at 21%. His changeup has allowed only a .307 slugging percentage, so “sit soft” is too simple a plan. Olson, Albies, Yastrzemski and Keirsey should be prepared to hit a four-seamer in the zone before Junk can change speeds.
Righties get an almost different pitcher. The sweeper and slider account for about half of Junk’s pitches to right-handed hitters, compared with about one-quarter to lefties. His sweeper has allowed a .545 slugging percentage and produced only a 13.4% whiff rate. Riley, Murphy and the other righties should let the version that leaves the plate go—and be ready for one that stays up.
Put the ball in play without giving away strikes. Junk’s 15.2% whiff rate is well below the 25.0% MLB mark, and hitters make contact on 90.1% of their swings at pitches in the zone. He also throws a first-pitch strike 62.6% of the time. Atlanta has reason to attack a hittable early strike; waiting him out automatically could leave hitters defending his breaking balls from behind.
His last start deserves respect, but it does not erase September. Junk held the Cubs scoreless over five innings on September 22, allowing two hits and striking out six. Two starts earlier, the Mets scored eight runs on eight hits in three innings. Atlanta has also scored 10 runs against him in eight innings over two meetings this year. Riley homered off a sweeper in the May game; Junk will have a fresh outing behind him today, but the Braves have seen what happens when he leaves a breaking ball available to drive.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A well-rounded mix, built around the four-seamer and a bunch of whiff-oriented secondaries. Opposite-handed sweepers play a small but consistent role here, but the overall usage is rather static no matter what the count is.
vs RHH: The sweeper is the prominent offering here, although the slider’s more of an early strike-stealer than it is an actual fallback whiff option with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
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Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available/potential limitations:
Feels pretty safe to say that Brent Suter, Victor Mederos, and Dylan Dodd are all down today. I’d assume that Elieser Hernández, who isn’t expected to make the postseason roster, gets some extra run today.
Quick takeaway:
It’s hard to know what to expect in this one, other than the Braves likely not wanting to go to any of the guys they might need on Tuesday.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available/Potential Limitations:
Miami’s got their own group of relievers down today, including Victor Vodnik, Dax Fulton, Bradley Blalock, and Jack Ralston.
Quick takeaway:
Does Sandy Alcantara or Eury Pérez get the save situation if it’s in play today?
Final Thought
The Braves are +106 on the moneyline to Miami’s -124 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. The hinge point is if Ritchie can get ahead while Atlanta attacks Junk’s strikes?
Ritchie’s 54.8% first-pitch-strike rate is the danger even against a lineup with seven righties: a walk can take away the advantage his curveball gives him. Junk is more willing to start in the zone, but his low whiff rate gives Atlanta opportunities to do damage when he does.
For Ritchie, the formula is strike one, then the curveball. For Atlanta’s hitters, it is take the breaking ball that leaves the zone, but don’t miss the fastball or hanging sweeper that stays in it.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.