The Scouting Report: Braves at Mets, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Location: Citi Field, Queens NY
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Joey Bart
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Ronald Acuña Jr. is not only back in the lineup, but back at leadoff, so that shuffles things up a bit for the Braves order today.
New York Mets Lineup
RF AJ Ewing
SS Francisco Lindor
3B Bo Bichette
CF Luis Robert Jr.
DH Francisco Alvarez
1B Jared Young
LF Tyrone Taylor
2B Marcus Semien
C Luis Torrens
Quick thoughts:
Both catchers have their catchers at DH today, with Francisco Alvarez getting a ‘half-day’ for the Mets.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (6-6, 3.38 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.38 ERA / 4.58 xERA / 4.45 FIP
18.6% K / 10.3% BB / 8.3% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 53% sinker, 25% changeup, 14% cutter, 6% curveball, 2% four-seamer
vs RHH: 33% changeup, 28% cutter, 23% sinker, 9% curveball, 7% four-seamer
Who to watch:
Every member of New York’s roster but one has faced Pérez, which makes sense, since he faced them on July 5th and gave up five runs (four earned) in 4.1 innings of a 10-9 Mets win.
Opposing Starter: LHP Zac Thornton (1-1, 1.93 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
1.93 ERA / 4.22 xERA / 2.98 FIP
19.5 K% / 6.9 BB% / 12.6% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Cutter (41%, 87.1 mph)
Four-seamer (27%, 92.2 mph)
Sweeper (15%, 80.2 mph)
Sinker (12%, 92.6 mph)
Changeup (3%, 84.1 mph)
Curveball (2%, 76.0 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A four-pitch focused mix, with heavy fastball early and a focus on breaking balls with two strikes. Interestingly, he throws more sinkers both when ahead and when behind than he does early in the count or with two strikes.
vs RHH: A more well-rounded arsenal, one that ramps up four-seamers early (at the expense of cutters), throws more cutters when behind and with two strikes, and cuts sweeper use when ahead and with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
No Braves hitters have ever faced Thornton in the majors.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Uh, Victor Mederos and Didier Fuentes had yesterday off?
Technically, so did Connor Thomas, but he warmed up to enter for the 12th so smash that “got dry-humped” button.
Used recently:
That’s it, though. The rest of the leverage contingent (platoon? brigade?) pitched last night, and so some length out of Martín Pérez would be awesome.
Potential limitations:
I don’t know that anyone should be down, but it’s possible one of the guys that’s worked three of the last five days gets Monday off if the game situation dictates it.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta can cover a normal five-and-dive out of Martín Pérez, but every guy that goes today likely means you’re shorthanded tomorrow.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
The Mets have leverage arm A.J. Minter coming off two days of rest and Huascar Brazoban sitting on one.
Used recently:
The rest of the leverage arms pitched last night, but Brooks Raley threw only seven pitches and can likely come back today. Devin Williams threw 19 pitches last night and Luke Weaver threw 22, so they’re likely up for today simply because that’s the closer and the top setup man, respectively.
Potential Limitations
Cionel Perez threw 27 pitches last night, his third outing in the last five days, and has a short start’s workload of 65 pitches over his last five days; I’m guessing he’s down for this one.
Quick takeaway:
New York has the leverage arms, but if they fire Weaver or Williams off today, they’re likely out for game two and maybe game three, depending on the pitch count.
What to Watch Today
Atlanta’s path against Thornton: Refuse to chase the sweeper and hunt the cutter. Thornton’s four-seamer has enough IVB (17.8 inches) to play above its velo, but the cutter is his primary pitch and the one most likely to miss over the plate.
Hitters have a .206 average and .324 slugging percentage against Thornton’s cutter, but its expected marks are .281 xBA and .486 xSLG. The actual results have been substantially better than the process indicates they should be.
Small Sample Size Shenanigans with ERA: His 1.93 ERA comes with a 4.21 xERA, and opponents have a .224 wOBA against him despite a .317 xwOBA. Thornton’s his 12.5% barrel rate is well above the 7.6% MLB average.
The 18-inning scoreless streak is real, but it hasn’t been built on overwhelming stuff. Thornton has only seven strikeouts across his last 13 innings and an overall 21.3% whiff rate.
Thornton’s putaway pitch: The sweeper is the pitch Atlanta cannot expand the zone against. It has a 34.8% whiff rate and .208 xwOBA, easily the most convincing swing-and-miss offering in the arsenal.
If the Braves can spoil or take the sweeper and force Thornton back to the cutter, they should get pitches to hit. Batters make contact on nearly 90% of his pitches inside the strike zone.
Don’t overstate Thornton’s platoon split: Major-league lefties have a .422 OPS against him and righties a .532 OPS, but the direction was reversed in the minors this season. There isn’t enough of a sample size yet to call him a reverse-split pitcher.
The better reason to favor Atlanta’s right-handed bats is pitch shape: Thornton’s cutter and sweeper can run toward their hands, but mistakes will also enter their pull-side damage path. Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return is particularly well timed.
Pérez’s recent issues: Watch the walks, especially once the lineup turns over. Pérez has 13 walks against only nine strikeouts across his last four starts, and even his four scoreless innings against San Diego included four walks.
His soft-contact foundation remains legit: 50.6% grounders, an 86.9 mph average exit velocity and a 6.5% barrel rate, but a .237 BABIP has helped prevent all his traffic from becoming runs.
The likely turning point: Pérez’s second trip through the Mets’ order. He has a 2.59 ERA against the first nine batters he faces but a 4.37 ERA against the second nine, and New York is seeing him for the third time in seven weeks.
If Pérez is already near 50 pitches or has issued multiple walks when Francisco Lindor and the middle of the order return, Atlanta may need to have the bullpen moving early.
The matchup in one sentence: Despite this being a 3.38-ERA pitcher facing a 1.93-ERA pitcher, it’s actually two contact-oriented starters with much less margin for error than those ERAs suggest.
Final Thought
Braves are slightly favored on the moneyline (-110 to New York’s -106) and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Whichever offense can get their hard contact to fall against the opposing starter is likely walking away with the game one win.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.