The Scouting Report: Braves at Nationals, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET

• Location: Nationals Park, Washington DC

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Partially sunny w/ thunderstorms, high of 89°

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Mauricio Dubón
DH Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
LF Brewer Hicklen
SS Ha-Seong Kim

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s doing some load management for Ozzie, while the slumping Mike Yastrzemski gets a day off in favor of Brewer Hicklen, who has hit righties well this season.

Washington Nationals Lineup

SS CJ Abrams
RF Dylan Crews
3B Brady House
LF Daylen Lile
DH Yohandy Morales
1B Abimelec Ortiz
C Harry Ford
2B Jorbit Vivas
CF Jacob Young

Quick thoughts:

• Morales was a September call-up, making his MLB debut today.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 5.93)

Quick snapshot (Five 2026 starts in AAA):

• 1.66 ERA / 2.78 xERA / 2.47 FIP

• 28.7% K / 10.3% BB / 18.4% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 47% four-seamer, 36% splitter, 9% curveball, 5% slider, 2% sinker

• vs RHH: 38% four-seamer, 33% splitter, 14% sinker, 12% slider, 3% curveball

What to watch:

• AJSS’s defining statistic remains his 47.6% first-pitch-strike rate. He has walked eight hitters in 13⅔ innings, and his strikeout rate has fallen to 15.9%. Washington’s offense is far too dangerous to receive repeated 1-0 advantages. The splitter becomes much less useful when hitters can ignore it below the zone and wait for a get-me-over fastball.

• The splitter remains the reason to believe in October success. Smith-Shawver throws it 35% of the time, and it owns a 34.1% whiff rate, .265 xSLG and .270 xwOBA. It has produced eight of his ten strikeouts. The four-seamer averages 96.2 mph but has generated only a 10.6% whiff rate. His velocity is fully back; the fastball’s ability to miss bats is not.

• His last start was progress, but in workload more than dominance. AJSS reached 90 pitches and completed five innings against Los Angeles after being held to 69 and 75 pitches in his first two MLB appearances. He allowed three runs with three walks and three strikeouts, but the fastball generated four whiffs after producing almost none in his first two starts. He also reached 98.4 mph while striking out Shohei Ohtani.

• Keep the arsenal concentrated. Four-seamers and splitters account for 79.4% of his pitches and have allowed a combined .279 xwOBA. His sinker and slider have been punished, combining for seven hits in only eight official at-bats, although 31 total pitches make those results extremely small-sample. Until either pitch proves otherwise, their purpose should be changing eye levels—not becoming a substantial third weapon.

• The contact suppression is more encouraging than the ERA. Despite a 5.93 ERA, Smith-Shawver has allowed an 88.9-mph average exit velocity, 37.8% hard-hit rate and 6.7% barrel rate. His 4.94 xERA reflects that improvement. The issue is that eight walks and only ten strikeouts have left him almost no margin when balls do fall.

Who to watch:

• Only four of Washington’s hitters have faced Smith-Shawver, with mixed results:

  • Jacob Young (0-2), Jose Tena (1-3, walk), CJ Abrams (2-7, RBI, BB, 2 Ks), Keibert Ruiz (1-6, double, RBI, walk)

Opposing Starter: RHP Jake Irvin (2-8, 5.62 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.62 ERA / 5.34 xERA / 5.07 FIP

• 22.7 K% / 10.8 BB% / 11.9% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (29%, 93.1 mph)

• Curveball (24%, 77.7 mph)

• Sinker (19%, 92.0 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 89.2 mph)

• Sweeper (9%, 82.1 mph)

• Changeup (8%, 85.7 mph)

Atlanta’s path against Irvin:

• Attack everything except the curveball and changeup. Irvin’s curve has held hitters to a .107 average and .228 xwOBA with a 36.6% whiff rate. His changeup owns a .223 xwOBA. The other four pitches have been considerably more vulnerable:

  | Pitch       | Usage | xwOBA | xSLG | Whiff rate |
  | ----------- | ----: | ----: | ---: | ---------: |
  | Curveball   | 23.8% |  .228 | .237 |      36.6% |
  | Changeup    |  8.3% |  .223 | .259 |      30.0% |
  | Four-seamer | 28.6% |  .392 | .453 |      21.2% |
  | Sinker      | 19.0% |  .480 | .720 |      12.2% |
  | Cutter      | 11.1% |  .391 | .628 |      12.2% |
  | Sweeper     |  9.3% |  .344 | .422 |      25.8% |

• The sinker is the pitch Atlanta should punish. Hitters are batting .375 and slugging .768 against it, with six home runs. The cutter has also allowed a .541 slugging percentage. Irvin expanded to six pitches this year, but greater variety has not meant greater quality; four of the six have produced negative run value.

• There is real pulled-air-ball susceptibility. Irvin has allowed 62.1% of his batted balls in the air, compared with the 55.9% MLB rate. More importantly, 22.8% of all contact against him has been pulled in the air, well above the 16.8% league rate. His 11.2% barrel rate and 14 home runs in 81⅔ innings reinforce the power opportunity.

• Right-handed hitters have done greater damage. They own a .278/.351/.470 line and .821 OPS against Irvin, compared with .221/.333/.395 and .728 for lefties. Atlanta shouldn’t sit Olson or Harris, but Acuña, Riley, Dubón and the other righties are not entering the disadvantaged side of the matchup.

• His return from the shoulder strain has not produced a turnaround. Irvin has a 6.30 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and seven homers allowed in six starts since returning July 30. His latest line - one run in 4⅓ innings - conceals six walks, one hit batter and 94 pitches. He threw only 53 strikes. Atlanta should make him demonstrate that the command problem disappeared rather than helping him escape it.

• Atlanta has already seen both possible versions of Irvin. On May 23, he held the Braves hitless for five innings with seven strikeouts before leaving with shoulder tightness. In his July 30 return, he carried another no-hit bid through three, then surrendered homers to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski and finished with five earned runs in five innings. The second look is the opportunity: opponents have an .847 OPS the second time through his order, and seven of his 14 home runs have come during that trip.

• The Braves against Irvin:

  • The good: Ronald Acuña Jr. (4-10, HR), Matt Olson (only .190 avg in 21 ABs but two homers, so good, I guess?), Michael Harris II (.292 avg, 2 RBI in 24 ABs), Dominic Smith (4-12), Ha-Seong Kim (1-3)

  • The bad: Ozzie Albies (.118 in 17 ABs), Drake Baldwin (1-7), Mauricio Dubón (0-4), Sean Murphy (1-9)

  • Haven’t seen him: Brewer Hicklen, Lane Thomas

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Pretty static 4S/curveball based attack, with the expected ramp-up of fastball variants when behind and more breaking ball use when ahead. Curveball/changeup are the intended whiff pitches here, with the off-platoon sweeper and slider not being a major part of the attack.

vs RHH: Multi-fastball-based attack, one that uses both curveball and sweeper when ahead and alternates sinker or four-seam as primary fastball based on count. Cutter is mostly early in the at-bat and the changeup plays a very minimal role.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, and Dylan Dodd should all be good to go in leverage moments, while Victor Mederos can function as a medium-leverage or bridge arm and Brent Suter’s there as a longman.

Potential limitations:

• Dylan Lee (back-to-back) and Ray Kerr (34 pitches yesterday) are likely both down today.

Quick takeaway:

• The Braves have everything they need for game one.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• Both the closer Beeter and the setup man Ribalta are available, although someone may need to step up for top lefty Erik Tolman (46 pitches in the last three days, including 21 yesterday)

Potential Limitations:

• Matt Waldron’s down after throwing 41 yesterday, so no knuckleballs tonight. Luis Perales is likely also down for a day after breaking 34 pitches last night, as is lefty Will Dion (37 pitches).

Quick takeaway:

• Washington has the pieces they need, although someone may need to step up to handle Atlanta’s lefties here - watch for Tom Cosgrove, as he’s the only fresh lefty remaining.

Final Thought

The Braves are favored on the moneyline at -164 to Washington’s +138 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 9.5 runs. The likely hinge point is: Which offense makes the opposing starter throw his vulnerable fastballs? Washington wants to force AJSS into the strike zone before he can use the splitter as a chase pitch. Atlanta wants to spit on Irvin’s curveball and changeup, accumulate baserunners, and attack the sinker, cutter, or four-seamer in the air.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.