It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 1:05 PM ET
Location: Nationals Park, Washington DC
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Mostly sunny (and humid), high of 87° & heat index of 101°
This may be one of those outings where a starter comes out earlier than we’re expecting, and if so, it’s probably this heat index.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Mauricio Dubón gets the day off, while Mike Yastrzemski rejoins the lineup after a day off.
Washington Nationals Lineup
RF James Wood
DH Abimelec Ortiz
CF Dylan Crews
2B CJ Abrams
3B Andres Chaparro
LF Daylen Lile
1B Yohandy Morales
C Keibert Ruiz
SS Nasim Nuñez
Quick thoughts:
Wood was activated for Washington this morning, making this his first game back after a month out for a left oblique strain. He went 2-for-6 with a homer in his two rehab games.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.71)
Quick snapshot:
3.71 ERA / 4.74 xERA / 4.76 FIP
18.7% K / 10.0% BB / 8.7% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 35% slider, 28% four-seamer, 12% cutter, 11% curveball, 9% changeup, 5% sinker
vs RHH: 41% slider, 30% four-seamer, 21% sinker, 3% each of cutter, curveball, and changeup
What to watch:
Holmes’s August improvement was built more on home-run suppression than dominance. He posted a 3.04 ERA and .619 opponent OPS in five August starts, allowing only one homer in 26⅔ innings. But he struck out only 16 while walking 10. His full-season 3.71 ERA comes with a 4.73 xERA, an 18.7% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate. The results are good; the underlying profile remains volatile.
The slider is still Holmes’s separator. He throws it 37.3% of the time, generating a 39.1% whiff rate and .296 xwOBA. The curveball has also been effective at .241 xwOBA. The trouble begins when hitters force him toward the harder stuff: his four-seamer has a .380 xwOBA, the sinker .410 and the cutter .423. Washington’s objective should be to reject sliders below the zone and make Holmes finish plate appearances with fastballs.
Daylen Lile is the obvious rematch concern. Holmes allowed three solo homers in 4⅔ innings against Washington on July 30—two to Lile and one to Luis García Jr. That wasn’t entirely random: Holmes’s 20.5% pulled-air rate is well above the 16.8% MLB average, and lefties have hit 12 of his 19 homers. His overall platoon split is nearly neutral, so this is less “lefties crush Holmes” than “lefties capable of lifting the ball can punish his mistakes.”
The lunchtime results are genuinely favorable, with a later warning attached. Holmes owns a 2.27 ERA and .649 opponent OPS across seven day-game starts. He has also been excellent in the first inning, but opponents have a .930 OPS and seven homers in the fourth. That roughly corresponds with the second look through the order—the point when fastball command and whether hitters have learned to recognize the slider become especially important
Who to watch:
Roughly half of Washington’s hitters have faced Holmes, with mixed results:
Bad: CJ Abrams (0-8, 3Ks), Nasim Nuñez (0-3), Jacob Young (0-2), Andres Chaparro (0-1), Dylan Crews (1-6, but that one was a homer so how bad is it?)
Good: Daylen Lile (2-4, 2 HRs), Jorbit Vivas (2-6, HR)
Opposing Starter: RHP Brad Lord (5-2, 3.75 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.75 ERA / 4.12 xERA / 4.26 FIP
21.5 K% / 9.4 BB% / 12.1% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (38%, 94.6 mph)
Sinker (23%, 94.4 mph)
Slider (21%, 85.3 mph)
Sweeper (14%, 83.4 mph)
Changeup (5%, 86.1 mph)
Atlanta’s path against Lord:
Prepare for a bullpen game. Lord has made only four starts among 33 appearances this season. His three August starts lasted 2⅔, 2⅔, and 2⅓ innings. Even if he is efficient, three innings would qualify as meaningful length. Atlanta should not behave as though it needs to save its best adjustments for the third trip.
The left-handed bats have the clearest advantage. Lefties own a .242/.359/.400 line and .759 OPS against Lord, compared with .188/.255/.268 and a .523 OPS by righties. They have drawn 18 walks and hit five homers; righties have only 10 walks and three homers. Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II should receive Atlanta’s best opportunities against him.
Don’t let Lord’s sinker turn the early innings into a ground-ball clinic. He has a 55.8% ground-ball rate, and opponents are slugging only .169 against the sinker. His other pitches offer considerably better damage paths: the four-seamer has a 45.1% hard-hit rate, while the slider, sweeper and changeup all have expected wOBAs between .353 and .364. Atlanta wants the four-seamer above the sinker plane or a secondary pitch left over the plate—not a 94-mph sinker at the knees.
Controlled aggression makes more sense than passive patience. Lord throws first-pitch strikes at a 63.1% rate and puts more than half his pitches in the zone. His 30.6% chase rate looks respectable, but his overall whiff rate is only 20%. Atlanta can hunt early pitches with lift potential while taking the sinker at the bottom; waiting blindly may simply give Lord quick count leverage.
The Braves against Lord:
The good: Ronald Acuña Jr. (3-8, HR), Ozie Albies (3-7), Drake Baldwin (3-9), Michael Harris (3-9, HR)
The bad: Matt Olson (1-11), Ha-Seong Kim (0-5), Austin Riley and Dominic Smith (both 1-5), Lane Thomas (0-2), Mike Yastrzemski (0-3)
Haven’t seen him: Brewer Hicklen, Sean Murphy, Kyle Farmer
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Relatively static 4S-based attack, with the expected ramp-up of sinkers when behind and more breaking ball use when ahead. Off-handed sweepers play a small but prominent role here, while changeups accompany the slider and sweeper on pitcher’s counts.
vs RHH: Multi-fastball-based attack, one with expected tendencies - more sinkers when behind, more sliders and sweepers when ahead.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
The leverage arms are all rested and available. Elieser Hernández was called up from Triple-A for length (replacing Blake Burkhalter) and hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday.
Potential limitations:
Brent Suter’s down after 50 pitches yesterday,
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have everything they need to not get swept in a short series.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
Closer Clayton Beeter (17 pitches) and setup man Orlando Ribalta (eight) can come back today, given their low usage last night.
Potential Limitations:
Matt Waldron’s likely still down after throwing 41 on Monday, so no knuckleballs in the entire series.
Quick takeaway:
Washington has the pieces they need for a two-game sweep.
Final Thought
The Braves are favored on the moneyline at -148 to Washington’s +126 and FanDuel has set the over/under at nine runs. The likely hinge point is contact shape. Lord wants Atlanta pounding sinkers into the ground; Holmes has allowed an elevated rate of pulled airborne contact and already surrendered three homers to Washington in their previous meeting. If the Braves elevate Lord’s four-seamer and secondary mistakes while Holmes keeps Lile and Washington’s other lefties from lifting pitches, the matchup should tilt toward Atlanta, especially once Lord’s short leash forces the Nationals into a bullpen that used five innings Tuesday.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.