It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:05 PM ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia PA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Sean Murphy gets the day off, likely to accommodate the fact that he’ll be in the lineup both Sunday (to catch Mahle) and on Monday (with a lefty on the mound for Philly).
Philadelphia Phillies Lineup
DH Kyle Schwarber
SS Trea Turner
RF Bryce Harper
2B Luis Arraez
1B Alec Bohm
LF Edmundo Sosa
C JT Realmuto
3B Bryson Stott
CF Derek Hill
Quick thoughts:
Second consecutive lefty on the mound for Atlanta means virtually the same lineup, although Realmuto and Stott did swap spots.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (8-8, 3.05)
Quick snapshot:
3.05 ERA / 4.56 xERA / 4.19 FIP
18.2% K / 10.0% BB / 8.2% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 54% sinker, 25% changeup, 13% cutter, 5% curveball, 2% four-seamer
vs RHH: 33% changeup, 27% sinker, 25% cutter, 9% curveball, 6% four-seamer
What to watch:
Pérez’s August ERA was excellent, but the foundation was shakier. He allowed six earned runs in 30⅔ innings for a 1.76 ERA, but struck out only 22 while walking 13. His season ERA is 3.05, compared with a 4.20 FIP, suggesting that contact management and sequencing have helped him outperform the underlying indicators.
The changeup remains the pitch that makes everything work. Hitters are batting .150 with a .275 slugging percentage against it, and its 35.7% whiff rate dwarfs the rest of his repertoire. The cutter has allowed a .489 slugging percentage, while the seldom-used four-seamer has allowed .526. Against Philadelphia’s right-handed hitters, Pérez needs to remain changeup-heavy instead of trying to steal too many strikes with elevated fastballs.
His platoon split is unusually small. Lefties have a .692 OPS against Pérez, compared with .646 for righties. Right-handed hitters have drawn 43 walks, but the changeup has prevented them from converting those baserunners into much power. Lefties have hit five homers in only 143 plate appearances, making Schwarber the obvious danger despite the conventional left-on-left advantage.
Watch Pérez after two quick outs. In his last start, he retired the first two hitters of the sixth before producing walk, single, walk and RBI single. His WHIP rises each time through the order even though his actual third-time-through results remain respectable. Given his modest strikeout rate, Atlanta shouldn’t automatically let him navigate Philadelphia’s best hitters a third time if traffic develops.
Who to watch:
The Phillies against Pérez:
The good: Alec Bohm (8-for-20, HR, .979 OPS), Trea Turner (5-for-17, two doubles, HR, .922 OPS), Bryan De La Cruz (4-for-6, double, 1.500 OPS) and Bryson Stott (2-for-2, walk) in small samples
The bad: Kyle Schwarber (2-for-13, five strikeouts, .421 OPS), J.T. Realmuto (6-for-21, all singles, .604 OPS), Edmundo Sosa (2-for-8, .625 OPS)
Worth noting: Bryce Harper has a relatively neutral 5-for-19 history with a double and triple but no home runs. Current Phillies have collectively hit .296/.348/.424 against Pérez, although Bohm and Turner account for much of the meaningful damage.
Opposing Starter: RHP Zack Wheeler (11-5, 3.31 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.31 ERA / 3.03 xERA / 3.66 FIP
29.4 K% / 7.8 BB% / 21.65% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (35%, 95.2 mph)
Sinker (16%, 94.7 mph)
Splitter (15%, 87.3 mph)
Sweeper (14%, 81.3 mph)
Cutter (10%, 90.8 mph)
Curveball (9%, 79.9 mph)
Atlanta’s path against Wheeler:
Wheeler’s collapse has primarily been about strikes. After carrying a 2.13 ERA and 0.89 WHIP into the All-Star break, he has a 6.27 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight second-half starts. August produced 18 walks in 27⅓ innings after he issued only 22 across 93 first-half innings. The strikeouts haven’t disappeared; his ability to control counts has.
The encouraging news for Philadelphia is that his stuff never vanished. His fastball velocity remained near its 95.2-mph season average even when Seattle hit four home runs against him, and he generated 15 whiffs in that outing. This wasn’t a pitcher throwing batting-practice stuff; it was a pitcher missing locations badly enough that walks and hard contact arrived together.
Philadelphia found a concrete mechanical explanation. Wheeler’s glove and front arm had gradually dropped, finishing approximately two inches below their normal position during his eight-run start in Seattle. That caused him to overrotate and direct his momentum toward the third-base on-deck circle instead of home plate. He deliberately raised the front arm before limiting the Angels to one run over six innings.
Don’t declare him fixed yet. Wheeler walked three Angels, needed 108 pitches and temporarily lost the zone again in the sixth—including a stretch of 13 consecutive pitches outside it. His delivery correction improved the direction of his pitches, but it did not immediately restore pinpoint command.
Make Wheeler demonstrate the adjustment for six innings. His splitter and curveball have whiff rates around 44% and 48%, respectively, while the sweeper is another legitimate chase weapon. The cutter has been his most attackable pitch, allowing a .500 slugging percentage and .340 xwOBA. Atlanta should reject the secondaries below the zone, extend plate appearances and hunt the cutter or a fastball pulled toward the middle. Wheeler remains difficult when hitters help him escape pitcher’s counts.
The plan changes considerably by handedness. Lefties receive a heavy four-seamer/splitter combination, with the cutter and curveball mixed behind it. Righties see substantially more sinkers and sweepers. Olson, Baldwin and Harris must solve the vertical fastball-splitter tunnel; Acuña and Riley will have to prevent Wheeler’s sweeper from expanding the outside edge.
The Braves against Wheeler:
The good: Dominic Smith (13-for-33, HR, .944 OPS), Ronald Acuña Jr. (13-for-56, four HRs, .801 OPS), Austin Riley (14-for-53, eight doubles, HR, .775 OPS), Sean Murphy (3-for-13, HR, .769 OPS)
The bad: Mike Yastrzemski (2-for-15, 10 strikeouts, .369 OPS), Michael Harris II (6-for-27, no extra-base hits, 11 strikeouts, .464 OPS), Ozzie Albies (11-for-57, .637 OPS), Drake Baldwin (0-for-5, three strikeouts) and Mauricio Dubón (0-for-5) in very small samples
Worth noting: Matt Olson is only 8-for-38, but two of the hits are home runs. Atlanta’s current hitters have collectively batted .227/.270/.409 with 104 strikeouts in 354 plate appearances against Wheeler.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A mostly vertical attack, based around four-seamer/splitter/curveball when ahead and ramping up cutter use when behind. Platoon-disadvantage sweepers are used more to steal strikes early and when behind rather than a standard whiff offering.
vs RHH: More of a sinker/sweeper horizontal attack, albeit with vertical-breaking splitters and curveballs in pitcher’s counts. Sinker gets minimized with two strikes in favor of whiff options.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Ray Kerr and Brent Suter are both available for length work today, if needed, with the full complement of leverage arms capable of going today.
Dylan Dodd got hot but never entered last night’s game - they call this getting “dry humped” - so they’ll likely try and get him an inning today.
Potential limitations:
Elieser Hernandez is probably down for one more day after throwing 44 pitches on Wednesday, although that’s likely a ‘want’ versus a ‘need’ on him.
Didier Fuentes is almost certainly down after throwing 21 pitches last night and 38 over the last three days, based on historical usage.
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have all the pieces they need, although usage of Iglesias tonight may open the door to an alternate closer on Sunday.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available/Potential Limitations:
Based solely on usage, everyone should be on the board for Philly tonight.
Quick takeaway:
Philly never got their top leverage arms into last night’s game, so they have a lot of flexibility with this one.
Final Thought
The Braves are +132 on the moneyline to Philly’s -156 and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. This game will be decided by which pitcher prevents a command problem from becoming a power problem? Wheeler’s second-half damage has come when walks force him into the zone and poorly located pitches leave the park. Pérez has survived his own elevated walk rate by suppressing home runs. Atlanta’s best route is to make Wheeler labor before attacking a mistake; Pérez’s assignment is to keep free passes away from Schwarber and the middle of Philadelphia’s order.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.