It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 1:10 PM ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia PA
TV: National Broadcast on NBC/Peacock
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
C Sean Murphy
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
Quick thoughts:
Sean Murphy returns to the lineup, and I expect him to catch both Mahle today and on Monday with a lefty on the mound for Philly.
Philadelphia Phillies Lineup
DH Kyle Schwarber
SS Trea Turner
RF Bryce Harper
2B Luis Arraez
1B Alec Bohm
3B Bryson Stott
LF Brandon Marsh
CF Justin Crawford
C Garrett Stubbs
Quick thoughts:
Marsh and Crawford check back into the lineup, now that the Braves are done with their lefty starters for the series.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.25 ERA; 2-1, 1.48 w/ Atlanta)
Quick snapshot:
4.25 ERA / 4.18 xERA / 4.01 FIP
23.2% K / 8.1% BB / 15.2% K-BB%
Pitch mix (in Atlanta):
vs LHH: 50% four-seamer, 34% splitter, 15% cutter, 1% slider, <1% sinker
vs RHH: 46% four-seamer, 21% splitter, 18% cutter, 14% slider, 2% sinker
What to watch:
Mahle’s Atlanta performance now has real underlying support. In five Braves starts, he owns a 1.48 ERA over 30⅓ innings with 32 strikeouts, five walks and three home runs allowed. He has completed at least six innings four times and just produced his best start of the run: 6⅔ innings, one run, nine strikeouts and no walks against Colorado.
The Braves have essentially reduced him to four-seamer, splitter and cutter. In his first four Atlanta starts, Mahle used his four-seamer approximately 48% of the time against both sides. Splitter usage sat at 38% against lefties and 40% against righties, with almost everything else being cutters. The increased splitter usage against righties has addressed his biggest season-long weakness: right-handed batters are hitting only .206 since the trade.
The risk is still the fastball becoming predictable. Philadelphia has several hitters capable of damaging a 48% four-seam approach, and Mahle’s splitter hasn’t produced the same whiff total in every Atlanta start. His command has allowed the simplified plan to work, but Schwarber, Harper and Turner will punish fastballs that leak toward the middle.
There isn’t a severe times-through-the-order cliff. Opponents have a .755 OPS on their first look, .704 on the second and .773 on the third. Atlanta can reasonably ask for six innings again if Mahle’s strike-throwing holds.
Who to watch:
The Phillies against Mahle:
The good: Kyle Schwarber (6-for-20, two HRs, eight walks, 1.083 OPS), Trea Turner (8-for-19, .871 OPS), Bryce Harper (4-for-12, double, .845 OPS)
Small-sample positives: Luis Arraez (3-for-8, double, .833 OPS), J.T. Realmuto (3-for-8, .750 OPS)
The bad: Alec Bohm (1-for-5, .400 OPS), Bryson Stott (0-for-5, three strikeouts), Justin Crawford (0-for-4), Brandon Marsh and Edmundo Sosa (both 0-for-3)
Worth noting: Philadelphia’s current roster has collectively hit .257/.327/.337 against Mahle. Schwarber owns both of its home runs and supplies most of the danger in an otherwise favorable history for Mahle.
Opposing Starter: RHP Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.93 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.93 ERA / 4.10 xERA / 4.84 FIP
24.6 K% / 8.0 BB% / 16.6% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Curveball: 33.1%, 78.4 mph
Four-seamer: 23.8%, 92.3 mph
Sinker: 18.4%, 91.6 mph
Changeup: 16.3%, 85.6 mph
Cutter: 7.8%, 86.2 mph
Slider: 0.6%, 83.2 mph
Why Nola has stabilized:
The turnaround began with better fastball location, not better Stuff. Through June, his four-seamer and sinker carried league-average Pitching+ grades, but poor location left both vulnerable. Since July 1, his Location+ has improved to 108 on the four-seamer, 106 on the sinker and 114 on the cutter. His fastball shapes didn’t radically change, but his misses simply became smaller.
The changeup has helped protect the fastball. During one four-start stretch, Nola increased its usage from 14.2% to 25.5%. Since the beginning of July, opponents have hit .264 against his four-seamer after batting .388 over the preceding months. The pitch mix has varied by opponent, but the overarching change is that hitters can no longer comfortably ignore everything except the curveball and wait for a hittable heater.
His signature curveball is missing bats again. It has held hitters to a .178 average and .341 slugging percentage with a 42.8% whiff rate. Against Miami, it generated 12 whiffs and seven of Nola’s eight strikeouts. The changeup and better-located fastballs are making the curve more difficult to isolate.
A small velocity gain has mattered, especially against lefties. Nola’s four-seamer rose from approximately 92.2 mph over the first four months to 92.7 in August. Lefties went from slugging .750 against it before August to .571 during the month. That is meaningful improvement, but .571 is still an attackable number.
The results have improved more than the complete profile. Nola posted a 2.65 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 34 August innings, but he still allowed six home runs and walked 12. His early turnaround also included a 100% strand rate and favorable matchups against several weaker offenses. For the season, he has allowed 32 homers and an identical .814 OPS to left- and right-handed hitters. The stabilized version is viable; it is not vintage Nola.
Atlanta’s path: Reject the curve beneath the zone and force him back toward the fastballs. The four-seamer and sinker have allowed averages of .345 and .350, respectively. His recent command makes that more difficult, but the Braves should not expand against the one pitch that can dominate them. Nola’s second trip has produced an .835 opponent OPS, and his WHIP rises from 1.23 initially to 1.55 on the second look and 1.67 thereafter.
The Braves against Nola:
The good: Ronald Acuña Jr. (21-for-60, four HRs, 1.076 OPS), Matt Olson (10-for-38, four HRs, 1.075 OPS), Austin Riley (23-for-66, six HRs, 1.074 OPS), Mike Yastrzemski (5-for-15, HR, 1.078 OPS), Michael Harris II (8-for-34, three HRs, .829 OPS), Lane Thomas (5-for-19, three doubles, HR, .842 OPS)
Small-sample positive: Drake Baldwin (3-for-5, walk)
The bad: Mauricio Dubón (1-for-9, .444 OPS), Kyle Farmer (1-for-7, .393 OPS), Sean Murphy (3-for-11, five strikeouts, .636 OPS)
Worth noting: Ozzie Albies has a relatively neutral .745 OPS, while Dominic Smith sits at .774. Collectively, Atlanta’s current roster has hit .291/.344/.552 with 22 home runs against Nola. It’s an unusually deep and damaging history rather than one hitter inflating the totals.
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A mostly static attack based on the knuckle curve, one that dramatically cuts four-seamers and changeups with two strikes in favor of more curves and sinkers.
vs RHH: A knuckle-curve-and-fastball-family mix, one that fluctuates a bit more based on at-bat state but features the curve as the only real whiff option.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder: these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Dylan Lee’s now working on five days off, so at some point in time, he’s going to end up facing Schwarber, right? Let’s hope he’s figured out the homer problem that’s plagued him of late.
Potential limitations:
Ray Kerr (35 pitches) and Brent Suter (27) both pitched last night, and I’d imagine they’re likely down unless it’s an emergency (and you’d probably go Suter before Kerr, in that case.)
Quick takeaway:
The Braves have the rested leverage arms they need to take care of Philly if they get a lead today.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available/Potential Limitations:
Based solely on usage, everyone should be on the board for Philly this afternoon.
Quick takeaway:
Amazing what long outings from your starters can do to a bullpen, huh?
Final Thought
The Braves are -106 on the moneyline to Philly’s -110 and FanDuel has set the over/under at eight runs. This game will be decided by which pitcher is forced to the four-seamer. Can Atlanta force Nola to prove his fastball improvement instead of allowing the curveball to validate it? The Braves’ roster has historically punished his heaters, but his better location of late and deeper offspeed mix have made those pitches harder to hunt. On the other side, Mahle needs his splitter to prevent Schwarber and Harper from sitting on a nearly 50% four-seam attack.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.