The Scouting Report: Braves at Pirates, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET

• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan

• Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta rolls out the exact same lineup as last night.

Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup

CF Jake Mangum
DH Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Esmerlyn Valdez
1B Ryan O’Hearn
3B Nick Gonzalez
2B Tyler Callihan
SS Jared Triolo
C Henry Davis

Quick thoughts:

• Shortstop and leadoff man Konnor Griffin was placed on the injured list today with a finger injury, so Jake Mangum gets the first shot at replacing him at the top of the order.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Hurston Waldrep (0-0, 3.68 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.68 ERA / 3.80 xERA / 5.43 FIP

• 20.6% K / 14.7% BB / 5.9% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 32% sinker, 27% cutter, 20% curveball, 15% splitter, 6% slider

• vs RHH: 55% sinker, 18% splitter, 15% curveball, 7% cutter, 5% slider

What to watch:

• Waldrep used more curveballs than splitters the last time out. Does he go back to the breaking ball as his primary whiff pitch, or stick to a splitter-heavy attack?

Who to watch:

• The only member of the Pirates to have faced Waldrep is second baseman Brandon Lowe, who is 1-1 with a home run.

Opposing Starter: RHP Paul Skenes (6-8, 3.62 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.62 ERA / 2.77 xERA / 3.03 FIP

• 30.1 K% / 5.6 BB% / 24.6% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (38%, 97.0 mph)

• Changeup (16%, 88.8 mph)

• Sweeper (16%, 84.2 mph)

• Sinker (12%, 96.7 mph)

• Splitter (11%, 93.5 mph)

• Slider (6%, 86.7 mph)

• Curveball (1%, 81.8 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-seam dominant kitchen sink mix with an interesting tendency - less splitters and sweepers when ahead and with two strikes, choosing instead to throw more changeups.

vs RHH: A four-seam/sweeper dominant mix, one that cuts back on sweepers and changeups when behind in favor of sinkers and ramps up changeup usage when ahead.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Only five Braves have ever seen Skenes in a game - Ozzie Albies is 1-2 and Austin Riley is 1-3, while Matt Olson, Dominic Smith, and Mike Yastrzemski are all hitless.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Lefties Dylan Dodd and Danny Young got yesterday off after working in two of the first three games of the series.

• Lefty Connor Thomas, who was the call-up to replace Owen Murphy, has not thrown since July 2nd, when he covered three innings for the Stripers. He’ll be the long man tonight.

• James Karinchak, who came back up this morning to replace Tyler Kinley, who went on the paternity list this morning, threw in that same game as Thomas and is fresh for tonight, as well.

Used recently/Potential Limitations:

• All of the leverage arms pitched last night, and availability on any of them is an open question. Fuentes is likely a no, as the team’s used him on a back-to-back only once all season, while Iglesias at 25 pitches is less than ideal. Dylan Lee’s 19 pitches isn’t that bad, in a vacuum, but that’s 30 in the last three days and 50 in the last five.

• JR Ritchie, who pitched three innings in relief of Chris Sale on Saturday, is likely down for at least one more night.

Quick takeaway:

• Things could get hairy for the Braves if they have a lead late and need someone to close, unless Iglesias is good to get back in the saddle after last night’s blown save.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• The entire Pirates bullpen got Monday off, helping provide a much-needed reset.

Used recently/Potential Limitations:

• Several of the leverage arms pitched on .

Potential limitations

• Kodai Senga and Austin Warren, who each have 44-pitch outings in this series, are likely still unavailable tonight.

Quick takeaway:

• It feels like New York’s got the pieces it needs to lock down a series split, if it has the opportunity.

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What to Watch Today

• Skenes has not been his usual dominant self lately - the righthander has a 5.36 ERA in his last nine starts, going 0-6, although the ERA estimators say it should be a 3.58 (FIP). He’s lost almost an entire mph of average 4S velo since then, as well, going from 97.2 mph to ‘only’ 96.3. His pitch mix has shifted during that span, as well, with less changeups and four-seamers and more sliders and curveballs.

Final Thought

Not really a shock, but the Braves are NOT favored in what FanDuel projects to be a low-scoring (O/U 7.0 runs) game. Can the Braves get to a more-’gettable’ Skenes, or will this be a frustratingly quiet (but understandably quiet) day for Atlanta’s offense?

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.