It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
TV: Apple TV (exclusive)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
C Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
RF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
The slumping Dominic Smith moves down to the #8 spot in the order, while Mike Yastrzemski, fresh off hitting a 9th-inning grand slam in Pittsburgh, takes Dom’s #6 spot.
St. Louis Cardinals Lineup
2B JJ Wetherholt
DH Iván Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
LF Nelson Velázquez
1B Alec Burleson
SS Masyn Winn
CF José Fermín
3B Blaze Jordan
C Pedro Páges
Quick thoughts:
Expect Busch Stadium to be a bit louder than usual when JJ Wetherholt leads off in the top of the first - reports broke today that he and the organization have come to an agreement on an 8-year, $112.5M contract extension.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (9-6, 2.27 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.27 ERA / 3.47 xERA / 2.89 FIP
28.6% K / 6.1% BB / 22.4% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 40% slider, 32% sinker, 27% four-seamer, 2% changeup
vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 39% slider, 16% changeup, 1% sinker
What to watch:
For Chris Sale, it’s Chris Sale - the package is pretty good already. My biggest question is whether he’ll get the quality start or not, as he’s gone 5.2 innings in three of his last five outings.
Being serious a moment, he missed the Cardinals when these two teams faced off last week, so if there’s any game to feel good about this weekend, it’s likely this one.
Who to watch:
Only two Cardinals have ever seen Sale in a game, and it didn’t go well: Lars Nootbaar is 0-3 and Nelson Velásquez is 0-1.
Opposing Starter: RHP Kyle Leahy (7-4, 3.86 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.86 ERA / 5.56 xERA / 4.10 FIP
This discrepancy appears to be that he’s not walking a lot of guys (8.7%) or giving up tons of home runs (2.4%, below the league average of 3.1%), but his average exit velocity allowed of 91.8 mph is 1st percentile in baseball and his hard-hit rate of 50.4% is 2nd percentile in baseball.
19.3 K% / 8.7 BB% / 10.6% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (28%, 94.1 mph)
Curveball (16%, 82.8 mph)
Slider (16%, 89.2 mph) ←this is really a cutter
Sinker (13%, 93.9 mph)
Changeup (13%, 88.4 mph)
Sweeper (13%, 84.8 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A four-seam dominant mix with common tendencies - more fastballs when behind in the count, more curveballs with two strikes. If you think of the slider as a cutter, the increased usage when behind in the count makes sense.
vs RHH: A standard fastball-dominant mix, with more four-seamers and “sliders” when behind and increased usage of the changeup and curveball when ahead.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Not a ton of experience on Atlanta’s lineup against Kyle Leahy, and the hits are few and far between - Joey Bart is 1-3, while Austin Riley is 2-4 and Dominic Smith is 1-2.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Tyler Kinley is back from the paternity list, who likely won’t get any additional dad strength from the experience (this was their third child), while the leverage trio of Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, and Dylan Lee did not enter Thursday’s game and are working on a day’s rest.
Iglesias started to toss in the top of the 9th in anticipation of a save situation, but he sat down once Yaz hit his grand slam. I’m assuming he avoided getting to the point where he was firing actual bullets.
Used recently:
Lefty Danny Young threw two pitches last night, which shouldn’t stop him from returning tonight if needed. Victor Mederos and James Karinchak are likely on the “stay away from if possible” list given their usage last night, but not confirmed to be down for the day.
Potential limitations:
Dylan Dodd threw in the final two games of the Pirates series and is likely wearing turf shoes for this one.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the pieces they need to close a win tonight, if it comes down to it.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Several of the leverage arms, including closer Riley O’Brien, leverage lefty JoJo Romero, and setup man George Soriano have had at least one day off (or five, in the case of Soriano) and should be good to go for tonight’s opener.
Used recently:
Longman Matt Svanson has gotten into three of the last five games, but his 14 pitches on Thursday won’t preclude him from appearing tonight.
Potential Limitations
It’s very likely that Luis Gastelum’s back-to-back will keep him out of tonight’s game, as will the 35 pitches Gordon Graceffo threw last night (as well as the 48 in three days and the 73 over the last four).
Quick takeaway:
The Cardinals have the leverage arms for a win, but might need to find innings in a blowout.
What to Watch Today
Leahy has righted the ship in the last few starts, allowing just one earned run across 16.1 innings against the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Cubs. That came with fourteen strikeouts to seven walks, so there were opportunities to score, but ones those teams couldn’t take advantage of. Can Atlanta’s offense cash in those baserunners?
Final Thought
Braves are favored in the finale, as they are in virtually every Chris Sale start, with FanDuel projecting this with an over/under of eight runs. Can the Braves give Sale some run support, like they did last time out, or will this be a repeat of June and he’ll be on the wrong side of a 2-1 decision?
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
This got published with the wrong city in the headline. Management regrets the error.