The Scouting Report: Braves at Pirates, Game Two
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
DH Drake Baldwin
LF Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
RF Mike Yastrzemski
C Joey Bart
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta gives Drake Baldwin a half-day at DH versus a righty, inserting Joey Bart into the #8 spot in the order and swapping shortstops from Jim Jarvis to Jorge Mateo.
Pittsburgh Pirates Lineup
CF Jake Mangum
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
RF Esmerlyn Valdez
1B Ryan O’Hearn
3B Nick Gonzalez
DH Marcell Ozuna
SS Jared Triolo
C Henry Davis
Quick thoughts:
Lowe retakes a defensive position today, freeing up designated hitter for old friend Marcell Ozuna from the Braves.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (5-4, 3.83 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.83 ERA / 4.59 xERA / 5.22 FIP
19.9% K / 10.7% BB / 9.3% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 34% slider, 34% four-seamer, 12% curveball, 10% cutter, 7% changeup, 3% sinker
vs RHH: 43% slider, 29% four-seamer, 20% sinker, 3% curveball & changeup, 2% cutter
What to watch:
As always, it’s the time-through-the-order penalty for Holmes, specifically the second time he faces the same batters in a game:
1st = .197/.285/.283, .568 OPS
2nd = .311/.387/.664, 1.051 OPS
3rd = .173/.283/.250, .533 OPS
Who to watch:
There is a grand total of six at-bats off of Holmes on Pittsburgh’s roster, and the only one with a hit is Brandon Lowe being 1-1.
Opposing Starter: RHP Jared Jones (1-1, 5.28 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
5.28 ERA / 4.42 xERA / 4.36 FIP
24.6 K% / 8.7 BB% / 15.9% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (38%, 98.6 mph)
Slider (33%, 90.2 mph)
Changeup (18%, 93.4 mph)
Curveball (12%, 85.6 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A four-seam dominant mix with some interesting tendencies - less sliders when ahead, choosing instead to ramp up its use when behind and with two strikes. He also swaps out curveballs for more four-seam fastball when behind.
vs RHH: A four-seam/slider dominant mix, one that cuts back on changeups when behind in favor of sliders and four-seamers and ramps up changeup usage when ahead, sacrificing some sliders to do it.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
No Braves hitters have ever faced Jared Jones.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Lefty Connor Thomas, who covered more than three innings last night and was sent back down this morning, and position player Jorge Mateo combined to give the entire pen a rest. Victor Mederos was called up today to replace Thomas and will be able to provide length for Atlanta
Used recently/potential limitations:
JR Ritchie, who pitched three innings in relief of Chris Sale on Saturday, is theoretically available for long relief work as well, but you have to wonder if they’ll try and insert him in the rotation instead of Hurston Waldrep sometime this week.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta’s got everybody available if they have a chance to even up the series tonight.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Turns out a blowout win can do a lot for resting your bullpen.
Used recently/Potential Limitations:
Carmen Mlodzinski and Hunter Stratton both pitched last night, and I’m assuming based on pitch count that Mlodzinski will get the night off but not be outright down.
Quick takeaway:
All hands on deck, mostly, for the Pirates as they look to avenge getting swept last month.
What to Watch Today
Jones is still working his way back from elbow surgery, which means the two things to watch are his locations and his stamina. He’s only once finished five innings in his seven starts this season, mostly because he’s not throwing a ton of strikes. He’s not overly walking guys, just having longer at-bats.
Final Thought
Not really a shock, but the Braves are NOT favored in what FanDuel projects to be a surprisingly high-scoring (O/U 9.5 runs) game. Can Grant Holmes hold the Pirates offense at bat when the lineup turns over? If he can, it’ll give Atlanta’s offense a chance against the soft underbelly of the Pirates bullpen.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.
I don’t understand Mateo getting the start Vs a RHP with his recent struggles.