The Scouting Report: Braves at Twins, Game One

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET

• Location: Target Field, Minneapolis

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: High of 80° and sunny at game time.

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
DH Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
2B Ozzie Albies
RF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Acuña gets another day at designated hitter, batting 2nd. It’s an extremely small sample size, but he’s struggled to lock in at the plate when he’s not in the field this season:

  • RF: 63G, .256/.365/.462 w/ 12 HRs, 15 SBs

  • DH: 9G, .167/.250/.306 w/ 1 HR, 1 SB

Minnesota Twins Lineup

RF Luke Keaschall
CF Byron Buxton
C Ryan Jeffers
DH Josh Bell
1B Royce Lewis
2B Kody Clemens
3B Brooks Lee
SS Kaelen Culpepper
LF Alan Roden

Quick thoughts:

• Outfielder Austin Martin went on the injured list this morning, replaced by catcher Alex Jackson (old friend alert - yes, it’s THAT Alex Jackson).

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Martín Pérez (8-6, 2.96)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.96 ERA / 4.29 xERA / 4.22 FIP

• 18.6% K / 10.0% BB / 8.6% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 54% sinker, 25% changeup, 14% cutter, 6% curveball, 2% four-seamer

• vs RHH: 33% changeup, 27% cutter, 26% sinker, 8% curveball, 6% four-seamer

What to watch:

• Pérez’s defining question: How much longer can he keep winning without missing bats? He carries an 18-inning scoreless streak into tonight and has lowered his ERA to 2.96, but his most recent start featured only two strikeouts against three walks in six innings. This remains a contact-management profile, not a sudden transformation into a bat-missing starter.

• There is one legitimately excellent pitch supporting the run: his changeup. Pérez throws it about 30% of the time, and opponents have hit .162 and slugged .325 against it with a 32% whiff rate. His sinker and cutter are primarily contact pitches, but the changeup gives him something capable of generating a strikeout when traffic begins building.

• Minnesota is a favorable matchup for Pérez. The Twins have produced only a .668 OPS against left-handed pitching, batting .224 with a .353 slugging percentage. That lack of damage fits Pérez’s pitch-to-contact approach extremely well.

• Watch the walks to Minnesota’s right-handed hitters. Pérez has shown a dramatic control split: through his first 19 appearances, he issued 30 walks to righties but only six to lefties. Minnesota can build around Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Ryan Jeffers against a lefty, so free baserunners ahead of its right-handed power matter more than Pérez’s strikeout total.

• The scoreless streak contains some small-sample magic. Entering his previous start, Pérez was carrying a .232 BABIP and 79.7% strand rate, while his expected run-prevention numbers remained in the mid-4.00s. The changeup and contact management are real; eighteen consecutive scoreless innings probably are not the new baseline.

Who to watch:

• Byron Buxton has five hits in thirteen ABs, while Josh Bell is 1-3 and Ryan Jeffers is 1-5 with a homer.

Opposing Starter: RHP Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.64 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.64 ERA / 4.70 xERA / 4.78 FIP

• 16.1 K% / 6.0 BB% / 10.1 % K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Changeup (34%, 82.7 mph)

• Four-seamer (32%, 88.1 mph)

• Slider (17%, 82.2 mph)

• Sweeper (12%, 76.1 mph)

• Sinker (3%, 88.5 mph)

• Curveball (2%, 72.7 mph)

What This Means for the Braves

• Atlanta’s path against Ober: Trust the left-handed power and attack the four-seamer/changeup combination. Ober’s velocity collapse has fundamentally changed him: his four-seamer is averaging only 88.1 mph, his strikeout rate has fallen to 16.1%, and his 4.64 ERA is supported by a nearly identical 4.72 xERA. Lefties have slugged .475 against him and accounted for 12 of his 17 home runs allowed.

• His changeup is no longer the automatic lefty neutralizer it once was. Ober throws it more than any other pitch, including roughly half the time against lefties, but it has produced only a 21.9% whiff rate with a .362 xwOBA and .503 xSLG. The four-seamer has been punished for a .542 slugging percentage with just a 14.8% whiff rate. That gives Atlanta’s lefties two very hittable pitches to hunt if they refuse to expand.

• The sweeper is the pitch Atlanta cannot donate outs against. Opponents are batting .095 and slugging .119 against it, with a 40.5% whiff rate. It is comfortably Ober’s best pitch, but represents only 12% of his arsenal and is used more heavily against righties. The Braves should make him win with the 88-mph heater and the diminished changeup instead of chasing his sweeper below or off the plate.

• Ober is still providing innings, but not dominance. He has completed six innings in three consecutive starts, but during that span has allowed ten earned runs and four homers while recording only seven strikeouts in 18 innings. His latest outing against Baltimore featured three home runs and five earned runs. He has not won since July 17.

• There is also health context behind the diminished stuff. Ober missed more than a month with right elbow inflammation before returning July 9. Since the All-Star Break, he owns a 5.27 ERA with only 16 strikeouts in 27⅓ innings. The velocity has not meaningfully returned with his health.

• The Braves against Ober: very limited experience here, with only five players having even faced Ober:

  • The good: Matt Olson is 2-2 with a homer and five RBI (a three-run homer and a two-run double, both in the same game in 2024)

  • The bad: Lane Thomas is 0-6, Mike Yastrzemski is 1-7, and both Ha-Seong Kim and Dominic Smith are 0-2.

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-seam/changeup based mix without many adjustments (other than increased 4S when behind and less when ahead)

vs RHH: A more-variable kitchen-sink-esque mix, one that ramps up sweeper and changeup use when ahead and saves a cutter-esque slider for early and when behind.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• Most of the non-leverage arms, with the possible exception of Brent Suter (49 pitches on Saturday) should be good to go today.

Potential limitations:

• The backend arms, however, threw a combined 57 pitches to avoid a Diamondbacks sweep yesterday. You could make an argument that Didier Funtes is likely down today either way.

Quick takeaway:

• I’m curious to see what happens if Pérez only goes five or six and the Braves are trying to protect a slim lead - do they piece it together by asking guys like Victor Mederos and the TJ-returning Ray Kerr to step up, or do they plan to double up on the leverage arms (plus Dylan Dodd, who has two days of rest) to get the win and figure out Tuesday on Tuesday?

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• A lot of the bulk arms (Tommy Nance, Travis Adams) are all well-rested, so they can handle a blowout.

Potential Limitations

• Setup man Andrew Morris has 51 pitches over a back-to-back, so if he’s not down today, the MLBPA might file a grievance for unsafe working conditions. A.J. Minter only needed 26 pitches for his own back-to-back, but he’s likely getting today off as well (although fellow lefty Kody Funderburk has also thrown a back-to-back on twenty total pitches, so someone will likely need to pitch today unless they’re going to trust the struggling Taylor Rogers).

Quick takeaway:

• Minnesota has their closer and some leverage options, although anyone outside of the closer that throws today is likely down for the rest of the series.

Final Thought

Atlanta is a slight favorite on the moneyline (-122 to Minnesota’s +112), and FanDuel has set the over/under at nine runs. This one is likely decided by which contact-oriented starter can do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard. Ober’s got a tough test, running a diminished fastball and a declining changeup right into Atlanta’s power lefties, while Pérez gets the benefit of a Minnesota offense that’s struggled to slug against southpaws this season. If Atlanta stays away from Ober’s sweeper and gets four-seamers or elevated changeups to Olson, Harris, Baldwin and Yastrzemski, the Braves should produce the more dangerous contact. If Pérez supplies Minnesota’s righties with free baserunners, however, he gives an otherwise underpowered matchup exactly the kind of crooked-number potential it needed to keep pace with Atlanta.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.