The Scouting Report: Braves at Twins, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET

• Location: Target Field, Minneapolis

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

DH Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
LF Mauricio Dubón
C Sean Murphy

Quick thoughts:

• Atlanta’s going with what I’m calling the “playoff lineup” here, with Dubón at short and Murphy behind the plate.

Minnesota Twins Lineup

CF Luke Keaschall
LF Trevor Larnach
C Ryan Jeffers
DH Josh Bell
2B Kody Clemens
1B Royce Lewis
3B Brooks Lee
RF Alan Roden
SS Kaelen Culpepper

Quick thoughts:

• Byron Buxton gets the day off, with Luke Keaschall kicking over to center field for the day.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (4-9, 4.64)

Quick snapshot:

• 4.64 ERA / 3.93 xERA / 4.10 FIP

• 23.4% K / 8.7% BB / 14.7% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 33% splitter, 16% cutter, 1% slider, <1% sinker

• vs RHH: 46% four-seamer, 19% cutter, 18% splitter, 15% slider, 2% sinker

What to watch:

• Tyler Mahle’s pitch mix changes is fueling this hot run. In his first two Atlanta starts, Mahle has thrown his splitter 36.8% of the time, up from approximately 25% before the trade. The extra splitters have largely replaced his cutter and slider: cutter usage has fallen from roughly 18% to 12%, while he has thrown only two sliders in 185 pitches.

• The early results say this was a good idea. Mahle has completed six innings in both Braves starts, allowing one run with sixteen strikeouts and two walks. More encouragingly, he generated 28 swinging strikes across those two games. The 0.75 ERA won’t continue, but that combination of whiffs and command gives the success more credibility than two merely fortunate box scores.

• Mahle’s defining matchup: Minnesota’s right-handed hitters. Lefties have produced only a .223/.275/.386 line against him this season, compared with .294/.376/.461 by righties. That makes a lefty-heavy Twins lineup less troublesome than it might appear. The real test will be whether the Braves’ splitter-heavy plan helps him navigate Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers, assuming they are in the lineup.

• Can Atlanta expect length? Six innings is a reasonable request. Mahle needed 92 and 93 pitches to complete six innings in his first two Braves outings. He hasn’t shown any obvious workload limitation, but Atlanta also hasn’t pushed him into a seventh. Six competitive innings is the reasonable expectation if the walks stay down.

Who to watch:

• Byron Buxton has a homer and four hits in nine ABs, while Ryan Jeffers is 3-5 with a homer and four RBI. Outfielder Trevor Larnach is 4-10 with three doubles.

Opposing Starter: RHP Zebby Matthews (6-8, 5.34 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 5.34 ERA / 4.69 xERA / 5.05 FIP

• 19.9 K% / 7.8 BB% / 12.1 % K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (37%, 95.2 mph)

• Slider (21%, 87.1 mph)

• Changeup (13%, 86.6 mph)

• Curveball (13%, 80.0 mph)

• Cutter (11%, 90.5 mph)

• Sinker (4%, 95.2 mph)

What This Means for the Braves

• Atlanta’s path against Matthews: Load up on lefties, hunt the four-seamer and cutter, and refuse to donate chases against the breaking balls. His slider has generated a 33.7% whiff rate and allowed a .252 wOBA, while the curve is at 33.8% and .238. Those are his two legitimate weapons. The four-seamer and cutter, however, have allowed respective wOBAs of .405 and .445. Matthews’ Statcast profile

• Matthews throws hard, but the fastball doesn’t play like a dominant 95-mph pitch. His four-seamer averages 95.2 mph but has produced only a 13.6% whiff rate, with opponents slugging .504 against it. The larger problem is damage: Matthews has allowed eighteen homers in 91 innings, and his 11.6% barrel rate is well above the MLB average of 7.6%.

• Lefties have been more successful, but primarily because they see less of his best pitch. Left-handed hitters have an .826 OPS against Matthews, compared with .774 for righties. Against lefties, he reduces his slider usage from nearly 29% to approximately 16% and throws his changeup roughly 22% of the time. That is a much more attractive pitch distribution for Olson, Baldwin, Harris and Yastrzemski.

• This isn’t a clean third-time-through collapse, but his ability to finish hitters deteriorates. My pass through his game logs produced a 24% strikeout rate the first time through, 19% the second and 15% the third, with his walk rate climbing above 10% on the third trip. The fifth inning has been the obvious trouble spot: a 9.00 ERA and .938 opponent OPS. He has completed exactly five innings in each of his last three starts.

• Matthews has been worse since the break, but not quite as bad as the ERA suggests. He owns a 7.50 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in five post-ASB starts. His full-season 4.69 xERA is better than his actual 5.34 ERA, but it still describes a below-average starter rather than a major positive-regression candidate.

• The Braves against Matthews: extremely limited experience here, with only Lane Thomas having faced him:

  • The good: Lane Thomas is 1-2 with a homer

  • The bad: N/A

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A four-seam-based mix with pretty common adjustments - more fastballs when behind, more sliders and curveball when ahead.

vs RHH: A more-variable kitchen-sink-esque mix, one that ramps up sweeper and changeup use when ahead and saves a cutter-esque slider for early and when behind.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

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Braves Bullpen Status

(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Likely available:

• The leverage arms got a game off and should all be fresh for game two.

Potential limitations:

• I’d imagine Victor Mederos (39 pitches in the last three, although only ten last night) is a candidate to be down today, as is Brent Suter if they want to give him one more day after 49 pitches on Saturday (but I’m guessing he’s available if they need him).

Quick takeaway:

• Even with the DFA of Tyler Kinley, Atlanta has the bullpen pieces for just about whatever gets thrown at them tonight.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely Available:

• Bulk arm Tommy Nance is well-rested, but he’s the only one.

Potential Limitations

• Andrew Morris might be back from his 51-pitch back-to-back over the weekend, but I’d honestly give him one more day. Taylor Rogers should be down after his back-to-back, while I’m sure they’d like to stay away from Jeff Hoffman if possible.

Quick takeaway:

• Minnesota has the pieces they need for game two.

Final Thought

Atlanta is a slight favorite on the moneyline (-128 to Minnesota’s +120), and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. This matchup will likely hinge on which team gets damage against the fastball. Mahle’s Braves adjustment has replaced most of his slider and cutter usage with a splitter that is producing whiffs against both handedness. Matthews owns the better pair of breaking balls, but his 95-mph fastball has been surprisingly hittable. If Atlanta refuses to chase the slider and curve and makes him win with the four-seamer, the Braves should have the more favorable offensive matchup.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.