The Scouting Report: Braves at Twins, Game Three.
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET
Location: Target Field, Minneapolis
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
DH Dominic Smith
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Amid the slumps of Ozzie (.188/.252/.357 last 30 games) and Mauricio Dubón (.225/.248/.288 last 30 games), Dominic Smith is batting fifth today.
Dom’s last 30 games stats are .222/.317/.319, so not much better.
Minnesota Twins Lineup
RF Luke Keaschall
CF Byron Buxton
DH Josh Bell
2B Kody Clemens
1B Royce Lewis
LF Trevor Larnach
3B Brooks Lee
C Victor Caratini
SS Kaelen Culpepper
Quick thoughts:
Buxton returns to the lineup after being held out at the start of the game yesterday, but was feeling good enough in his sore knee to both pinch-hit and play the field for the final few innings.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver(0-0, 4.15)
Quick snapshot (Five 2026 starts in AAA):
1.66 ERA / 2.78 xERA / 2.47 FIP
28.7% K / 10.3% BB / 18.4% K-BB%
Pitch mix (2026 debut):
vs LHH: 56% four-seamer, 29% splitter, 11% curveball, 2% “slider”
vs RHH: 58% four-seamer, 25% splitter, 13% sinker, 4% “slider”
What to watch:
This should be a real start, not another extended rehab appearance. Smith-Shawver was limited to 69 pitches in his July 29 return against the Mets, but he has since thrown 89 and 95 pitches for Gwinnett. His most recent outing was his best: 5.1 scoreless innings, one hit, no walks and seven strikeouts. Across five Triple-A starts, he posted a 1.66 ERA with 25 strikeouts and nine walks in 21.2 innings.
The biggest development is the return of a five-pitch arsenal. In his MLB appearance against New York, AJSS threw 58% four-seamers and 28% splitters, barely using anything else. He generated only two swinging strikes in 69 pitches. In his final Gwinnett start, his distribution was much more diverse: 35% four-seamers, 23% splitters, 18% curveballs, 13% sliders and 12% sinkers. That version produced 16 whiffs in 95 pitches.
The velocity is fine; the shape and location of the fastball remain the question. His four-seamer averaged 95.9 mph and reached 97.4 in his final Triple-A start. That is plenty, especially after surgery. But velocity has never guaranteed fastball success for him: opponents produced a .481 xwOBA and 63.9% hard-hit rate against his four-seamer in 2025. The splitter, by comparison, had a 39.7% whiff rate and .232 xwOBA.
AJSS’s defining question: Can the breaking balls help him finish right-handed hitters? Righties hit .300/.410/.429 against him in 2025, with twelve walks in 84 plate appearances. Lefties were held to .212/.278/.343. His revamped slider looked considerably sharper during his final rehab outings, but we’re working with a tiny Triple-A sample. Minnesota’s righties will provide a much better test.
To clarify here, he has been throwing a cutter that’s been misclassified as a slider, but in Gwinnett in that final rehab start, he unveiled a vertical-breaking gyro slider, so Statcast’s gonna need to reclassify some stuff today.
Reasonable length expectation: five innings, with six available if he is efficient. He is physically built up for approximately 90–95 pitches, but he needed 95 pitches to record sixteen outs in his last start because hitters fouled off 28 pitches. The Braves can hope for six; they probably shouldn’t plan around it.
Who to watch:
The only member of the Twins roster to face AJ Smith-Shawver in the majors is Josh Bell, who is 0-4.
Opposing Starter: RHP Taj Bradley (9-5, 3.98 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.98 ERA / 4.01 xERA / 4.05 FIP
26.1 K% / 10.2 BB% / 15.9 % K-BB%
The arsenal (2026 debut):
Four-seamer (47%, 97.1 mph)
Cutter (24%, 89.8 mph)
Splitter (20%, 91.5 mph)
Curveball (13%, 80.0 mph)
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta’s path against Bradley: Accept the walks, avoid the secondary pitches and hunt the four-seamer in the zone. His cutter has generated a 35.5% whiff rate and .220 xwOBA, while his splitter and curveball are both around 35% whiffs with expected wOBAs of .266 and .262. His 97-mph four-seamer is the exception: a .382 xwOBA, 53.7% hard-hit rate and only a 16% whiff rate.
Bradley’s defining statistic: ten walks against twelve strikeouts in fifteen August innings. He has a 6.60 ERA and 1.93 WHIP this month. Since the break, he has walked nineteen in 33 innings after issuing forty in 102.2 innings before it. The post-break opponent OPS is only .720, so this has been more about creating traffic than getting consistently hammered.
His stuff hasn’t disappeared, but his secondary pitches have stopped finishing hitters. Bradley’s fastball has actually averaged 97.8 mph in August. However, his cutter’s whiff rate has fallen from approximately 39% before the break to 17% this month, while the splitter has fallen from 39% to 19%. That is only three starts, but it points toward location and chase problems rather than lost velocity.
There isn’t an enormous platoon advantage, although lefties have been slightly better. Left-handed hitters have a .708 OPS against Bradley; righties are at .668. Righties see the cutter approximately 34% of the time, while lefties get more splitters. Loading up on lefties helps reduce exposure to his best pitch, but this isn’t somebody Atlanta should beat simply by manipulating handedness.
The first inning and third trip through the order are the openings. Bradley has a 6.75 first-inning ERA with seventeen walks in 24 opening frames, then settles considerably in the second and third innings. My pass through his game logs produced a .588 opponent OPS the second time through but a .792 mark on the third trip. If Atlanta doesn’t score immediately, its next opportunity may not arrive until the fifth or sixth.
The Braves against Bradley: most everyone has seen Bradley before, but most are limited to five or six ABs max.
The good: Sean Murphy (1-2, HR, 3 RBI), Mauricio Dubón (2-6, triple, 2 walks), Ronald Acuña Jr. (1-3, 2B), Matt Olson (2-6, 2 RBI)
The bad: Lane Thomas (1-10, 6Ks), Drake Baldwin (0-2, K)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A four-seam-based mix with pretty common adjustments - more fastballs when behind (at the expense of curveballs and splitters), more curveballs when ahead and with two strikes.
vs RHH: A four-seam-based mix with common adjustments (curveballs when ahead, fastballs when behind), but one that throws the splitter less than the cutter, the inverse of the game plan against lefties.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Lee should be completely back from their Sunday usage and (hopefully) we can get a lead so that they can work the 8th and 9th.
Potential limitations:
If Didier Fuentes is still getting the kid-glove treatment, he’ll have today off, but other than that, Atlanta should be good to go.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has all the pieces they need to secure a win. Now if only they can get a lead…
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
Bulk arm Tommy Nance is still well-rested, having not pitched since Thursday, but he’s the only one.
Potential Limitations
Guessing Yoendrys Gomez gets the day off today, and both A.J. Minter and Andrew Morris (worked three of the last four days) are candidates to be in turf shoes today, as well.
Quick takeaway:
The Twins might need to either push a reliever or piece it together if they’re holding a late lead, given that two or three guys probably should be down based on recent usage.
Final Thought
This game is exactly even on the moneyline, -104 for both teams, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. This matchup will likely hinge on which young power arm can access his secondary pitches? Smith-Shawver’s final rehab start featured a broad arsenal and sixteen whiffs; his MLB return featured an overly fastball-heavy approach and only two. Bradley’s fastball velocity has increased while his cutter and splitter have become less effective. Whichever pitcher establishes something besides the four-seamer will have the advantage. Atlanta’s best chance against Bradley is to make his current command problem hurt him. His cutter and splitter are capable of overwhelming a lineup that expands, but he has issued ten walks in fifteen innings this month and owns a 6.75 first-inning ERA. On the other side, Smith-Shawver doesn’t need to prove he can still throw hard; he needs to prove the deeper, more balanced arsenal from his final rehab start will survive against major-league hitters.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.