It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 2:10 PM ET
Location: Rate Field, Chicago
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: 75° and sunny, wind NNE at 5 mph
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Lane Thomas
CF Michael Harris II
SS Mauricio Dubón
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
Quick thoughts:
As they’re wont to do, Atlanta moves Baldwin to DH with a lefty on the mound in favor of Sean Murphy.
Chicago White Sox Lineup
LF Sam Antonacci
1B Munetaka Murakami
3B Miguel Vargas
DH Andrew Benintendi
RF Braden Montgomery
SS Colson Montgomery
2B Chase Meidroth
CF Tristan Peters
C Drew Romo
Quick thoughts:
Fun fact: The trio of Munetaka Murakami (29 HRs), Miguel Vargas (28), and Colson Montgomery (26) are all in the American League’s top ten for homers, and Chicago is the only team with three players who each have 25 or more homers.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (7-5, 3.82)
Quick snapshot:
3.82 ERA / 4.82 xERA / 4.91 FIP
19.1 % K / 10.1% BB / 9.1% K-BB%
Pitch mix (2026 debut):
vs LHH: 33% slider, 29% four-seamer, 13% cutter, 11% curveball, 9% changeup, 5% sinker
vs RHH: 40% slider, 29% four-seamer, 22% sinker, 3% each of cutter, curveball, changeup
What to watch:
Don’t let one blowup erase the two starts before it. Holmes entered his last outing with 13.2 consecutive scoreless innings, then allowed six runs in 3.2 innings against Arizona. The three walks and early homer made that more than simple batted-ball misfortune, but it also doesn’t necessarily signal a broader collapse. He still owns a 3.82 ERA over 117.2 innings, albeit with estimators roughly a run higher.
Holmes’s defining statistic: Watch the walks to Chicago’s lefties. His overall results are almost neutral by handedness - lefties have a .731 OPS and righties a .744 OPS - but he has walked 35 of 298 left-handed batters, compared with only 16 of 209 righties. Chicago’s left-handed bats don’t necessarily hit him harder; they are much more likely to force him into traffic and unfavorable counts.
The slider must remain his primary weapon. Holmes’s slider carries a 38.9% whiff rate and a .299 xwOBA, while the curveball has also been excellent. The danger comes when he falls behind and must lean on the fastball trio of four-seamer, sinker or cutter. All three have been hit hard, with the cutter producing particularly ugly results when it’s left over the plate instead of on the black.
The likely Holmes hinge point is the fourth inning. Opponents have a .969 OPS against him in the fourth, with seven homers and 16 walks in 21.1 innings. His first two trips through the lineup aren’t neatly divided, but the fourth has clearly been where command problems and damaging contact begin to converge.
Who to watch:
Almost everyone on Chicago’s roster has faced Grant Holmes, but it’s almost exclusively one or two ABs except for the five from deadline acquisition Brenton Doyle.
The good: Brenton Doyle is 1-5 with a homer and two RBI, Miguel Vargas is 1-2 with a homer, and Braden Montgomery is 1-2 with a RBI.
The bad: Andrew Benintendi and Tristan Peters are both 0-2, while Drew Romo, Randal Grichuk, and Sam Antonacci are all 0-1.
Opposing Starter: LHP Anthony Kay (9-5, 4.01 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.01 ERA / 5.02 xERA / 4.79 FIP
18.1 K% / 8.1 BB% / 10 % K-BB%
The arsenal:
Sweeper (22%, 82.8 mph)
Four-seamer (22%, 95.8 mph)
Sinker (17%, 95.2 mph)
Cutter (17%, 91.6 mph)
Changeup (14%, 86.1 mph)
Slider (6%, 86.4 mph)
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta’s path against Kay: Lean into the righties. Kay has been dominant against lefties, holding them around a .197/.266/.276 line, but righties have hit approximately .278/.374/.464 against him. That is a difference of roughly 300 points of OPS. Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Lane Thomas, et al, as well as Ozzie Albies batting right-handed, can carry the matchup for the Braves.
The recent ERA is better than the recent pitching. Kay has a 2.55 ERA in three August starts, but he has allowed 19 hits while striking out only 11 in 17.2 innings. His season ERA is 4.01, while Statcast has him at a 5.02 xERA. He has pitched better recently, but he hasn’t suddenly developed overpowering stuff.
Hunt the fastball family. Kay divides his repertoire among a four-seamer, sweeper, sinker, cutter, changeup and occasional slider. His four-seamer, sinker and cutter all have expected wOBAs of at least .358; the changeup and slider are his best contact-management pitches. Atlanta’s righties should look for something firm in the zone and avoid helping him with the changeup below it.
The odd inning to watch is the second. Kay has a 6.93 second-inning ERA with a .905 opponent OPS, compared with a 3.91 ERA in the first. If Atlanta doesn’t score immediately, the first trip through the lower portion of the order may provide its best early opportunity.
The Braves against Kay: Only six Braves have ever faced Kay in the majors.
The good: Dominic Smith (1-1, grand slam), Sean Murphy (1-1, double), Lane Thomas (4-9, 2 RBI)
The bad: Matt Olson (0-2), Austin Riley (0-1), Ozzie Albies (0-1)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A sinker/sweeper-based arsenal with expected tendencies - more fastballs when behind, more breaking balls when ahead. The offspeed isn’t used pretty much at all here, and the slider’s mostly reserved for pitcher’s counts.
vs RHH: A kitchen sink-based mix with some common adjustments like more cutters and sinkers when behind, more changeups and sliders when ahead, but also some uncommon ones - opposite-handed sweepers early and when behind as a strike-stealer, increased four-seam usage with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Braves Bullpen Status
(Reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Raisel Iglesias and Brent Suter are both completely fresh, having not worked since Sunday and Saturday, respectively.
Potential limitations:
Dylan Dodd’s coming off a back-to-back (21 total pitches, while Ray Kerr’s at 34 pitches across the last three days and Victor Mederos is at 32 in the same time frame.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the pieces they need to secure a win.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely Available:
The quintet of Jordan Hicks, Tyler Schweitzer, Huascar Brazoban, Bryan Hudson, and Hagen Smith should all be up after their usage earlier this week.
Potential Limitations
Some old friends shouldn’t be available today for revenge games: Erick Fedde was the bulk arm on Tuesday (78 pitches) and is down for a few days, while Sean Newcomb threw 34 last night.
Grant Taylor’s coming off a back-to-back and likely down, although we saw Minnesota use someone on three straight games so anything’s possible.
Quick takeaway:
Chicago’s in a good spot here.
Final Thought
Braves are a very slight favorite on the moneyline -106 to Chicago’s -102, and FanDuel has set the over/under at 8.5 runs. Both starters’ ERAs are approximately one run better than their bleavxERAs: Holmes is at 3.82 with a 4.82 xERA, while Kay is at 4.01 with a 5.02 xERA, so this one is more about disrupting that. Which offense forces the starter away from his best secondary pitches? Atlanta’s clearest advantage is its right-handed bats against Kay, while Chicago’s is making Holmes throw strikes to its lefties and getting him into trouble around the fourth inning.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.