The Scouting Report: Braves at Yankees, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 7:05 PM ET
Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH Drake Baldwin
2B Ozzie Albies
1B Matt Olson
CF Mauricio Dubón
LF Lane Thomas
3B Austin Riley
C Sean Murphy
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Atlanta continues the load management, following up Ozzie Albies’ off day on Thursday with one for Michael Harris II today. Ha-Seong Kim also checks in for his first start since going on the injured list, batting 9th.
New York Yankees Lineup
CF Trent Grisham
DH Ben Rice
LF Heliot Ramos
1B Luis García Jr
2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
RF Spencer Jones
SS George Lombard Jr.
3B Ryan McMahon
C Austin Wells
Quick thoughts:
Both deadline additions in Ramos and García are in the top half of the lineup today. Let’s see if Mahle can get the best of his former teammate Ramos.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Tyler Mahle (Braves debut)
Quick snapshot (w/ Giants):
5.13 ERA / 4.09 xERA / 4.37 FIP
22.0% K / 9.2% BB / 12.9% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 50% four-seamer, 32% splitter, 16% cutter, 1% slider, <1% sinker
vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 19% cutter, 17% splitter & slider, 2% sinker
What to watch:
Mahle’s 5.13 ERA overstates how poorly he has pitched. His 4.07 xERA, 4.37 FIP and 4.11 xFIP all point toward something closer to a low-4.00s starter. Since returning from the injured list, he has a 3.79 ERA and 3.62 FIP across seven starts.
Mahle’s defining question: Can Atlanta repair his plan against right-handed hitters? His splitter has remained a credible out pitch, but neither his cutter nor slider has consistently neutralized righties. Watch whether the Braves reduce those pitches and build his night more aggressively around the elevated four-seamer and splitter.
The likely decision point: Mahle has a 3.60 ERA the second time through the order but an 11.02 ERA and .377 wOBA the third time. He has averaged only 5⅓ innings per start, so the top of the Yankees’ order coming up for a third look should be treated as the danger point, particularly if the right-handed portion of the lineup is due.
Who to watch:
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt is the big threat here, having a .379 average, 1.234 OPS, and three career homers off of Mahle in 29 ABs.
Opposing Starter: LHP Max Fried (4-3, 3.12 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
3.12 ERA / 2.39 xERA / 2.46 FIP
23.4 K% / 7.9 BB% / 15.5% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Cutter (23%, 91,9 mph)
Sinker (21%, 93.2 mph)
Four-seamer (18%, 95.0 mph)
Curveball (14%, 74.0 mph)
Changeup (13%, 85.6 mph)
Sweeper (10%, 80.1 mph)
Slider (1%, 84.1 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A sinker/sweeper based package. Lefty sweepers early (at the expense of 4S) and when ahead (at the expense of sinkers) gives way to four-seamers and sinkers with two strikes. The sinker and cutter both see the most use when behind in the count.
vs RHH: A multi-fastball-based mix, one that ramps up changeup use when ahead and cutter/sinker use when behind.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta’s path against Fried: Braves hitters can’t treat him like the curveball-dependent pitcher they remember. The curve is now only his fourth-most-used pitch, while a cutter-sinker-four-seam combination accounts for more than 62% of his arsenal. Atlanta must identify the cutter early and avoid allowing Fried to steal quick contact on the edges before expanding with his curve, changeup and sweeper.
The curve’s not bad - 27.3% whiff rate - but it not anywhere close to the 37.1% whiff rate it had in Fried’s final year in Atlanta.
Make Fried work: This will be his fourth start since returning from a two-month absence caused by a bone bruise in his pitching elbow, and he has not completed six innings in any of the first three. He looked much sharper last time out, striking out seven over 5⅓ innings, but Atlanta can reach the Yankees’ bullpen early by extending at-bats rather than ambushing early strikes.
Not a lot of experience on Atlanta’s roster off of Fried, as you’d expect, but both Ha-Seong Kim and Mike Yastrzemski are hitting .286 across seven ABs off of the lefty.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Yesterday’s impromptu bullpen game meant that virtually the entire pen was forced into action, but Dylan Dodd and Didier Fuentes both escaped being used and are likely on tonight’s pitching plan.
Potential limitations:
32 pitches for Victor Mederos and 36 for Brent Suter means they’re both likely down for the opener.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the leverage arms it needs for tonight, but a strong start from Mahle wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, either.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Everyone got a breather last night thanks to a break in the schedule, so New York’s getting a mini-reset before the opener.
Potential Limitations
It’s possible that Paul Blackburn gets one more day after 30 pitches on Wednesday, in light of his injury history, but that’s probably a want instead of a need.
Quick takeaway:
New York definitely has the bullpen advantage entering the opener.
Final Thought
Between the early-morning arrival in New York and the lopsidedness of the pitching matchup, it’s no surprise that the Braves are an underdog on the moneyline (+114 to New York’s -122), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of eight runs. Atlanta’s right-handed bats must solve Fried’s cutter-heavy plan, while Mahle must prevent New York’s right-handed power from exploiting his most pronounced weakness. Whichever starter reverses that contrast is likely to control the game.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.