The Scouting Report: Braves at Yankees, Game Two

Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon

It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

Game Info

• First Pitch: 3:05 PM ET

• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City

• TV: BravesVision

• Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

• Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X

Atlanta Braves Lineup

C Drake Baldwin
DH Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
LF Mauricio Dubón
RF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis

Quick thoughts:

• Acuña gets a load management day, pushing Dubón into left field and letting Mike Yastrzemski play his natural right field for an afternoon. Jim Jarvis, who has one hit in his last 15 at-bats and is hitting .139 with a .372 OPS since July 23rd, slots back in at shortstop and looks to get going.

New York Yankees Lineup

1B Paul Goldschmidt
LF Heliot Ramos
DH Ben Rice
3B Amed Rosario
CF Trent Grisham
SS George Lombard Jr.
RF Spencer Jones
2B José Caballero
C Austin Wells

Quick thoughts:

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ryan McMahon both get the day off against a tough lefty in Sale.

Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter: LHP Chris Sale (12-6, 2.08)

Quick snapshot:

• 2.08 ERA / 3.07 xERA / 2.46 FIP

• 30.4% K / 5.5% BB / 24.8% K-BB%

Pitch mix:

• vs LHH: 38% slider, 31% sinker, 29% four-seamer, 1% changeup

• vs RHH: 45% four-seamer, 39% slider, 15% changeup, 1% sinker

What to watch:

• Chris Sale’s defining statistic: the stuff is somehow getting better. Sale owns a 2.08 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 30.4% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate, with a 118 Stuff+ and 121 Pitching+. His four-seamer is averaging 96.1 mph, more than a full tick above last season, while his slider has a 38.5% whiff rate and .184 opponent average. The 2.08 ERA may be a little prettier than his 3.04 xERA, but nearly every underlying measure still describes an ace.

• Sale enters on an absurd run, with one small unknown. Since the All-Star Break, he has allowed three earned runs in 19 innings with 26 strikeouts, one walk and no homers. He has also held lefties and righties to nearly identical wOBAs for the season, eliminating any obvious platoon path for New York. The only thing I’d monitor early is feel and command because this is his first start since July 29, giving him nine full days of rest

Who to watch:

• Not a lot of success off of Sale on New York’s roster - the only hits belong to Jose Caballero (1-1, RBI), Heliot Ramos (1-8), and Amed Rosario (2-9).

Opposing Starter: RHP Gerrit Cole (5-5, 3.42 ERA)

Quick snapshot:

• 3.42 ERA / 3.43 xERA / 3.65 FIP

• 25.8 K% / 5.6 BB% / 20.2% K-BB%

The arsenal:

• Four-seamer (47%, 96.9 mph)

• Slider (20%, 89.7 mph)

• Changeup (15%, 86.3 mph)

• Curveball (13%, 83.2 mph)

• Sinker (5%, 96.1 mph)

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: A standard arsenal with minimal adjustments, mostly increased changeups when ahead and more knuckle curves when behind.

vs RHH: A standard arsenal with minimal adjustments, mostly increased sinkers early and more four-seamers with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

What This Means for the Braves

• Atlanta’s path against Cole: lean into left-handed power and elevate. Cole is allowing only a .203 average to lefties, but they have hit nine of the 11 homers he has surrendered. His 1.68 HR/9 against lefties is more than twice his rate against righties, and eight of his 11 homers have come at Yankee Stadium. That puts Atlanta’s left-handed pull hitters in the spotlight.

• This is no longer vintage swing-and-miss Cole. He still averages 96.9 mph with a four-seamer he throws 47% of the time, but his overall whiff rate is only 21.5%, none of his individual pitches has generated a 25% whiff rate, and his Stuff+ is a fairly ordinary 102. His 25.8% strikeout rate is being supported by excellent control and called strikes more than overwhelming chase stuff.

• Cole has rebuilt his post-surgery arsenal. The cutter he threw 15.8% of the time in 2024 has disappeared, with his changeup jumping from 4% to roughly 15%. The four-seamer remains his best offering. The curveball has backed up significantly, producing only a 20.3% whiff rate and a .515 slugging percentage after generating a 30.1% whiff rate and .239 SLG in 2024. Atlanta should be ready to punish the curve or occasional sinker when either leaks into the zone.

• Can Atlanta get a third look at Cole? Cole has dominated the first trip through the order with a 1.41 ERA, .220 wOBA and 31.6% strikeout rate. During the third trip, those numbers deteriorate to a 5.65 ERA, .387 wOBA and 16.2% strikeout rate, with his walk rate climbing to 11.8%. Sale has shown no comparable third-time collapse. Atlanta’s best chance may be surviving Cole’s opening burst, forcing enough pitches and turning the middle innings into the decisive portion of the game.

• Not a lot of success on Atlanta’s roster off of Cole, with all of the hits coming from Ronald Acuña Jr. (1-2, homer), Ha-Seong Kim (1-2), and Dom Smith (1-3, homer).

  • Matt Olson’s a shocking 0-for-21 against Cole with 14 strikeouts, but the two also haven’t faced off since 2021.

---

Braves Bullpen Status

(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)

Uh, yikes.

Likely available:

• Victor Mederos is likely going to be slated for multiple innings today, and possibly Brent Suter too. Danny Young is presumably available, as well.

Potential limitations:

• 30 pitches each for Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias has their availability for today in question, and Didier Fuentes has been mostly protected from back-to-backs this season. Dylan Dodd threw only six pitches last night, but it’s his third outing in the last four days and I’m sure they’d like to give him a night off, as well.

Quick takeaway:

• You never want to go into a game thinking you need your starter to throw seven innings, but hey: no pressure, Chris.

Opponent Bullpen Status

Likely available:

• New York used the leverage contingent last night, but still have multiple fresh options for today like Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough.

Potential Limitations

• The only leverage reliever that might get today off is Fernando Cruz, but even then, it was only 21 pitches so I imagine he’s available if needed.

Quick takeaway:

• New York continues to have the bullpen advantage in the series.

Final Thought

As is typical on a Chris Sale day, the Braves are the favorite on the moneyline (-138 to New York’s +126), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of just 7.5 runs. Each team has things in their favor here - Sale has the more dominant stuff, while Cole has the home field and bullpen advantage. I’d imagine this one hinges on Atlanta’s lefty power hitters being able to take advantage of Cole’s homer-prone-at-home-and-to-lefties profile to hang damage on the righty.

Let’s Talk About It

If you’d rather watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.