The Scouting Report: Braves at Yankees, Game Three
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this afternoon
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET
Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos
Weather: Courtesy of @BravesWX on Twitter/X
Atlanta Braves Lineup
C Drake Baldwin
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson
CF Michael Harris II
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Dominic Smith
LF Mike Yastrzemski
3B Austin Riley
SS Jim Jarvis
Quick thoughts:
Mauricio Dubón’s back to the bench, with Dominic Smith taking the DH role for the finale.
New York Yankees Lineup
CF Trent Grisham
DH Ben Rice
LF Heliot Ramos
1B Luis Garcìa Jr.
2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
RF Spencer Jones
SS George Lombard Jr.
3B Ryan McMahon
C Austin Wells
Quick thoughts:
Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ryan McMahon both check into the lineup for the finale.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Grant Holmes (7-4, 3.67)
Quick snapshot:
3.67 ERA / 4.67 xERA / 4.91 FIP
19.7% K / 9.9% BB / 9.9% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 33% slider, 30% four-seamer, 13% cutter, 11% curveball, 8% changeup, 5% sinker
vs RHH: 41% slider, 29% four-seamer, 22% sinker, 3% cutter & changeup, 2% curveball
What to watch:
Grant Holmes’ defining statistic: 14 of his 18 homers have come during the second trip through the order. Holmes has a 2.54 ERA, .272 wOBA and 24.9% strikeout rate the first time through. Those become a 5.82 ERA, .408 wOBA and 15.4% strikeout rate the second time, with an enormous 3.26 HR/9. This has been less of a traditional gradual times-through-the-order penalty and more of a wall once hitters have seen his entire pitch mix.
Holmes must live off his breaking pitches. His slider has a 39.4% whiff rate and .289 wOBA, while his curveball has a 36.9% whiff rate and .238 expected wOBA. The four-seamer has generated only a 14.8% whiff rate while allowing a .496 slugging percentage, and the cutter has been hit for a .618 SLG. If the slider command disappears and he has to lean on fastballs inside the zone, New York’s power can turn the game quickly.
Holmes’ last start was encouraging, with a caveat. He gave Atlanta six scoreless innings against Miami with five strikeouts and one walk, his longest start since June 3. His season ERA is now 3.67, but his 4.67 xERA, 4.91 FIP and 88 Stuff+ remain significantly less optimistic. The clean outing is evidence that his command can produce a good result, though it doesn’t yet establish a broader turnaround.
Who to watch:
Not a lot of ABs off of Holmes on New York’s roster - former divisional opponent Luis Garcìa Jr. leads the Yankees with a 4-10 mark, having hit one homer off of Holmes.
Opposing Starter: RHP Cam Schlittler (10-6, 2.26 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
2.26 ERA / 2.97 xERA / 2.64 FIP
30.8 K% / 5.6 BB% / 25.2% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Four-seamer (44%, 97.9 mph)
Cutter (26%, 94.6 mph)
Sinker (20%, 97.7 mph)
Curveball (9%, 85.9 mph)
Slider (1%, 89.6 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A fastball-based arsenal with minimal adjustments, mostly increased cutters when behind.
vs RHH: A fastball-based arsenal with minimal adjustments, mostly increased cutters when behind, less sinkers when ahead, and less cutters with two strikes.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
Atlanta’s path against Schlittler: Look for the cutter and make him work toward a third trip through the order. Roughly 90% of Schlittler’s pitches are fastballs: a 97.9 mph four-seamer, 94.6 mph cutter and 97.7 mph sinker. The four-seamer has been dominant, holding hitters to a .186 average and .304 slugging percentage with a 33.5% whiff rate. The cutter is the more hittable of the three at .232/.430 with a 23.2% whiff rate. Atlanta’s best early-count opportunity should come when that cutter stays over the plate.
Schlittler’s defining statistic: 113 Stuff+ with strike-throwing ability. He enters with a 2.26 ERA, 2.64 FIP and 2.97 xERA, striking out 30.8% of hitters while walking only 5.6%. His new, harder curveball has produced a 41% whiff rate, giving him a legitimate change-of-speed weapon after hitters adjust to the three fastballs. There isn’t much evidence that his breakout is smoke and mirrors.
Atlanta’s lefties have one interesting opening. Schlittler has dominated both sides overall, but left-handed hitters at Yankee Stadium have batted .296/.362/.513 against him with five homers in 28 innings. Some of that is a .372 BABIP and will regress, but the 1.61 HR/9 and 4.30 FIP suggest the home split isn’t entirely random. Atlanta’s left-handed power has a better path than the overall .204 average against Schlittler would imply.
The third trip is where Schlittler finally changes. His first two trips have been almost identical: a .246 wOBA and 35.2% strikeout rate the first time, followed by a .241 wOBA and 32.7% strikeout rate the second. During the third trip, his strikeout rate falls to 19%, his walk rate rises to 9.9% and opponents produce a .310 wOBA. Atlanta probably cannot wait passively for walks, but extending enough at-bats to get its best hitters a third look would materially improve the matchup.
The only Braves hitters to ever face Schlittler in the majors are both out of today’s lineup; Mauricio Dubón is 1-2 and Lane Thomas is 2-5.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
The leverage group should be back and available today.
Potential limitations:
Going to go on a limb here and assume that both Victor Mederos and Danny Young are down today.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta has the pieces to get through the finale, with both the leverage pieces available to avert a sweep and the long man in Brent Suter to finish off a blowout.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Most of New York’s leverage options got last night off.
Potential Limitations
I wonder if closer David Bednar is out today, or if they’re comfortable going to him in a third straight game if it means getting a much-needed series sweep.
Quick takeaway:
New York continues to have the bullpen advantage in the series.
Final Thought
Braves are a clear road dog on the moneyline (+128 to New York’s -138), and FanDuel is projecting this with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Atlanta needs to survive Holmes’ second look through New York’s order while forcing Schlittler toward a third. Those exposure splits move in completely opposite directions. If Holmes reaches the fourth or fifth with traffic building, Atlanta may need to treat that as the danger point before the home run arrives.
Let’s Talk About It
No livestream on Sunday mornings, normally, as it’s reserved for coffee on the back deck with the wife and the dog. Talk to y’all after the game.