The Scouting Report: Braves @ Giants, Game One
Lineups, pitching matchup, bullpen status, and what to watch this evening
It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.
Game Info
First Pitch: 10:15 PM ET
Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 61° and partly sunny. Wind W at 15 mph.
Atlanta Braves Lineup
CF Michael Harris II
LF Mauricio Dubón
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
C Drake Baldwin
3B Austin Riley
DH Dominic Smith
RF Mike Yastrzemski
SS Ha-Seong Kim
Quick thoughts:
Drake Baldwin’s back in the lineup, batting fifth.
San Francisco Giants Lineup
2B Luis Arraez
DH Bryce Eldridge
LF Casey Schmitt
1B Rafael Devers
CF Jung Hoo Lee
SS Willy Adames
3B Matt Chapman
C Drew Cavanaugh
RF Vincent Bericoto
Quick thoughts:
Drew Cavanuagh is making his MLB debut behind the plate tonight (replacing Daniel Susac, who went on the IL today). Vincent Bericoto hit identical home runs on Wednesday and Thursday and is being rewarded with more playing time.
Pitching Matchup
Braves Starter: RHP Reynaldo López (3-1, 3.50)
Quick snapshot:
3.50 ERA / 4.64 xERA / 4.62 FIP
20.6% K / 11.1 BB / 9.5% K-BB%
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 51% four-seamer, 29% slider, 14% curveball, 6% changeup
vs RHH: 61% four-seamer, 36% slider, 3% curveball, <1% changeup
Who to watch:
This is the first start for López since April 21st, and he has a stated three-inning/60-pitch limit. How will he fare for one pass through the order?
The two hitters with both experience and success off of López to watch tonight are Luis Arraez (.379 avg in 29 ABs) and Rafael Devers (.400 avg, 1 HR in 15 ABs)
Opposing Starter: RHP Trevor McDonald (2-5, 4.93 ERA)
Quick snapshot:
4.93 ERA / 4.50 xERA / 4.18 FIP
20.5 K% / 8.8 BB% / 11.7% K-BB%
The arsenal:
Sinker (57%, 93.7 mph)
Slider (27%, 86.1 mph)
Changeup (14%, 83.1 mph)
Cutter (1%, 90.7 mph)
Four-seamer (1%, 94.8 mph)
How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: A sinker-dominant three-pitch mix that ramps them up early in the count and when behind, cuts back on them for changeups when ahead, and cuts back on them for both changeups and sliders with two strikes.
vs RHH: A sinker-dominant two-pitch mix that ramps them up when early and when behind (at the expense of sliders) and cuts them when ahead and with two strikes, in favor of the slider.
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
What This Means for the Braves
No member of the Atlanta Braves has ever faced Trevor McDonald.
Braves Bullpen Status
(reminder, these are all assumptions based on pitch count and recent usage)
Likely available:
Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias have had two days off ahead of today’s opener.
Used recently:
James Karinchak (39 pitches in the last five days) and Dylan Dodd (50 in the last five) have both had large workloads recently, but got a complete day off on Thursday to refresh. They’ll likely be throwing.
Potential limitations
Setup man Robert Suarez was placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow soreness, so he’s out for the next two weeks. Hurston Waldrep was recalled from Gwinnett and could potentially be the pitcher to follow Reynaldo López in a bulk role.
Quick takeaway:
Atlanta is in a great place to absorb a bullpen game today and then to finish the series.
Opponent Bullpen Status
Likely available:
Newly demoted starter Adrian Houser is fresh and available, having not pitched since last week.
Used recently
Virtually everyone else? Lefties Matt Gage and Sam Hentges both got into Thursday’s game, although with low-enough pitch counts that they can come back today.
Potential limitations
Several leverage arms have either high pitch counts or usage recently - closer Caleb Kilian’s threw two of the last three days, needing 41 pitches, while setup men Ryan Walker and Erik Miller (lefty) are both coming off a back-to-back.
Quick takeaway:
San Francisco better hope they get length from their starter today, as the pen’s not set up to absorb a large workload unless it’s all from Houser.
What to Watch Today
Oracle Park was a nightmare for the Braves last season, getting walked off twice amid a series sweep by the Giants, one where the Braves lost three one-run games.
Final Thought
The Braves are just slightly favored in this one (FanDuel) in what projects to be a moderate-scoring (O/U 8.5 runs) game. This one comes down to not letting the Giants big bats pounce on mistakes while you try and figure out scoring runs against a groundball guy in McDonald.
Let’s Talk About It
If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.
The key to the game in my opinion is “will a “hittable” pitcher (to the least of the league) look like a Cy Young award candidate due to Braves lethargic bats?”